QuantNomad

4th worst week for S&P. What's next?

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
So it was a pretty hard week for the market. S&P lost 11.5% during this week. It's 4th worst week (Monday to Friday) for S&P for the last 50 years from 1970.
Question is what will happen next, let's look at the worst weeks in history and what happened the next week after the drop:

1. 2008-10-06 → 2008-10-06; P&L: -18.2%; Next Week P&L: 4.6%
2. 1987-10-19 → 1987-10-19; P&L: -12.2%; Next Week P&L: 1.44%
3. 2001-09-17 → 2001-09-17; P&L: -11.6%; Next Week P&L: 7.78%
4. 2000-04-10 → 2000-04-10; P&L: -10.54%; Next Week P&L: 5.75%
5. 2008-09-29 → 2008-09-29; P&L: -9.4%; Next Week P&L: -18.2%
6. 1987-10-12 → 1987-10-12; P&L: -9.12%; Next Week P&L: -12.2%
7. 1974-09-09 → 1974-09-09; P&L: -8.71%; Next Week P&L: 7.58%
8. 2008-11-17 → 2008-11-17; P&L: -8.39%; Next Week P&L: 12.03%
9. 2002-07-15 → 2002-07-15; P&L: -7.99%; Next Week P&L: 0.6%
10. 1986-09-08 → 1986-09-08; P&L: -7.91%; Next Week P&L: 0.67%

As you can see in only 2 cases from 10 drop continued next week, in all other cases market was flat or recovered the next week.
So I think if there won't be any other bombshells in the news related to coronavirus, markets should be relatively calm.
However I don't like coronavirus dynamics in Europe and US, so there is a chance to worsen panic.
If you want to track coronavirus statistics you can use Worldometers website: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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