Most stocks and indexes had higher than normal volume for the weekly.
Candle technically wasn't a bullish engulfing because for that to happen the candle has to open up lower than the previous candle to "Engulf" it.
I'm sticking with a bear target of 390 by December. The monthly candle is structure is still a bearish reversal with 3 black crows; This means a lower low on the monthly is incoming. As we get closer and closer to December things should start to deteriorate quickly.
Market goes no where without the tech sectors so let's start with them. You'll notice that all are at or very near resistance . Still you want to see a rejection/Reversal with some volume .
XLK
(MSFT/AAPL)
Top of channel here.
Smh
(NVDA/AMD)
XLY
(Tsla/amzn)
I circled the false breakout. This came in Sept after tsla gap up on car sales.
XLC
Meta/googl/Nflx
Back up near supply area .. simple range trade. You don't long these stocks when XLC is near 68
Lastly IXIC or Nasdaq
Simple channel trade here.
Should we break to the upside of all of these sectors from Fridays close I could see Nasdaq squeezing another 5% to the upside, but I doubt it.
Next , let's look at NYSE which gives a pretty good barometer of all stocks non tech.
NYSE/NYA
Broadening wedge formed here.
I think the next leg down starts this week!
Purple line - 50sma
Gold line - 200sma
As you can see , the MA have death crossed.
We stopped right below fib and moving averages resistance
Instead of DJI , I'm doing DIA this week. Dia is the ETF for dow similar to how spy works for Spx
DIA
Daily chart
Broadening wedge here
Looking for the next leg down this week to match NYA move.
IWM
This is a 2D (2day chart,)
Closed at two different trendline resistance here.
Over 177 and I'd consider this very bullish. Any thing below 175 is subject to retest 170 minimum
VIX , DXY, 10yr, are all oversold on the hourly which indicates an immediate bounce is incoming
VIX support is at 15.00
10yr support at 4.5
Should they drop below these supports , that would be an indicator for me that markets are going alot higher
Spy
I readjusted my trendline resistance here.. I felt it legit because of the NYA/DIA structure.
First target here is 430 gap close and trendline support .. entry , below 50sma at 433.60
If we break over 438.70 gap close , then I'd say we are heading towards 445 and then 450.
Just cause a candle has reached resistance doesn't make it bearish; it just means you shouldn't long this anymore until a breakout. Last 4hours of Friday's close gave us reversal candles on the 4hour charts of the indexes and some sectors. I'd like to see so reversal candles on the daily chart by Tuesday
Candle technically wasn't a bullish engulfing because for that to happen the candle has to open up lower than the previous candle to "Engulf" it.
I'm sticking with a bear target of 390 by December. The monthly candle is structure is still a bearish reversal with 3 black crows; This means a lower low on the monthly is incoming. As we get closer and closer to December things should start to deteriorate quickly.
Market goes no where without the tech sectors so let's start with them. You'll notice that all are at or very near resistance . Still you want to see a rejection/Reversal with some volume .
XLK
(MSFT/AAPL)
Top of channel here.
Smh
(NVDA/AMD)
XLY
(Tsla/amzn)
I circled the false breakout. This came in Sept after tsla gap up on car sales.
XLC
Meta/googl/Nflx
Back up near supply area .. simple range trade. You don't long these stocks when XLC is near 68
Lastly IXIC or Nasdaq
Simple channel trade here.
Should we break to the upside of all of these sectors from Fridays close I could see Nasdaq squeezing another 5% to the upside, but I doubt it.
Next , let's look at NYSE which gives a pretty good barometer of all stocks non tech.
NYSE/NYA
Broadening wedge formed here.
I think the next leg down starts this week!
Purple line - 50sma
Gold line - 200sma
As you can see , the MA have death crossed.
We stopped right below fib and moving averages resistance
Instead of DJI , I'm doing DIA this week. Dia is the ETF for dow similar to how spy works for Spx
DIA
Daily chart
Looking for the next leg down this week to match NYA move.
IWM
This is a 2D (2day chart,)
Closed at two different trendline resistance here.
Over 177 and I'd consider this very bullish. Any thing below 175 is subject to retest 170 minimum
VIX , DXY, 10yr, are all oversold on the hourly which indicates an immediate bounce is incoming
VIX support is at 15.00
10yr support at 4.5
Should they drop below these supports , that would be an indicator for me that markets are going alot higher
Spy
I readjusted my trendline resistance here.. I felt it legit because of the NYA/DIA structure.
First target here is 430 gap close and trendline support .. entry , below 50sma at 433.60
If we break over 438.70 gap close , then I'd say we are heading towards 445 and then 450.
Just cause a candle has reached resistance doesn't make it bearish; it just means you shouldn't long this anymore until a breakout. Last 4hours of Friday's close gave us reversal candles on the 4hour charts of the indexes and some sectors. I'd like to see so reversal candles on the daily chart by Tuesday
Comment:
Retest of 420 this week is possible but the real leg down below 400 should start the following week with CPI reading on 11/14
Comment:
Everyone is floating this Inverted H&S possibility. In this scenario , Spy pulls back to 420-422.
The left shoulder took from Sept 21- Oct 11th to form.
Usually the right shoulder takes at least 75% of time to form so we are talk 2 weeks minimum.
1. 1 Week to pullback
2. 1 week to chop and form a right shoulder.
On top of the time aspect that it would take to make a right shoulder , you also have the 200ema and 200sma on the chart which I have highlighted. Why would bulls dip below and give up the 200ma?
If we close back under the 200 it won't be to form a shoulder
The left shoulder took from Sept 21- Oct 11th to form.
Usually the right shoulder takes at least 75% of time to form so we are talk 2 weeks minimum.
1. 1 Week to pullback
2. 1 week to chop and form a right shoulder.
On top of the time aspect that it would take to make a right shoulder , you also have the 200ema and 200sma on the chart which I have highlighted. Why would bulls dip below and give up the 200ma?
If we close back under the 200 it won't be to form a shoulder
Comment:
Spy 15min chart..
Price action formed Friday was a smaller rising wedge.
Anything below 437 is a reload for short target of 430 gap close
Price action formed Friday was a smaller rising wedge.
Anything below 437 is a reload for short target of 430 gap close
Comment:
Qqq 45min chart
Similar wedge as spy .
Anything below 370 is a entry to short for 363 gap close
Similar wedge as spy .
Anything below 370 is a entry to short for 363 gap close
Comment:
Smallcaps and cylicals always go first.
Tech next up.
132p
Amzn
11/17
Gap closed at 140
Tech next up.
132p
Amzn
11/17
Gap closed at 140
Comment:
Notice ,
Along with IWM lagging, so are the mid and low cap tech stocks that outperformed Friday. Its just a few big name tech keeping this green.. this won't hold!
Along with IWM lagging, so are the mid and low cap tech stocks that outperformed Friday. Its just a few big name tech keeping this green.. this won't hold!
Comment:
Qqq 1hour chart..
Price popped up to wedge resistance..
Buy some time , it's coming down
11/17 minimum
Price popped up to wedge resistance..
Buy some time , it's coming down
11/17 minimum
Comment:
Msft..
340 from here.
360 stop
340 from here.
360 stop
Comment:
Qqq 15min chart.
Don't 0dte the chop..
Buy some time
It's coming down..
Ill be back on later
Don't 0dte the chop..
Buy some time
It's coming down..
Ill be back on later
Comment:
XLK
(MSFT/aapl)
Main reason QQQ is giving the bullish illusion today is this sector..
Price hit resistance at 172.90.
Should reverse from here
(MSFT/aapl)
Main reason QQQ is giving the bullish illusion today is this sector..
Price hit resistance at 172.90.
Should reverse from here
Comment:
Qqq 15min chart..
Just a lil more chop to round this off then we should flush.
Spy has already rounded off
Just a lil more chop to round this off then we should flush.
Spy has already rounded off
Comment:
Qqq 30min chart
Still inside wedge here
Tech is mix this morning.
Dog earnings has propped up cloud stocks. Needs a break below yesterday's low
Still inside wedge here
Tech is mix this morning.
Dog earnings has propped up cloud stocks. Needs a break below yesterday's low
Comment:
Nq 1hour chart.
Bearish Ascending broadening wedge here..
Sitting right on support.
Target is 14,930
Bearish Ascending broadening wedge here..
Sitting right on support.
Target is 14,930
Comment:
Qqq 30min
Comment:
Nq 3hour RSI and chart.
Not only is it Overbought but there is bearish divergence..
Not only is it Overbought but there is bearish divergence..
Comment:
370.55 next resistance on QQQ
Comment:
Qqq 1hour chart
Comment:
Covering Cutting my losses on Amzn..
Cloud stocks pumping too hard on DDog
Squeezing
Msft
Crm
Snow
Everything is Overbought but it won't pullback without a reason or (Catalyst) Powell speaks the next 2days.. I don't like depending on an event..
Cloud stocks pumping too hard on DDog
Squeezing
Msft
Crm
Snow
Everything is Overbought but it won't pullback without a reason or (Catalyst) Powell speaks the next 2days.. I don't like depending on an event..
Comment:
Qqq next resistance 375. Support 372.50
Not trading this here.. indicators are useless right now and I don't like driving blind..
Not trading this here.. indicators are useless right now and I don't like driving blind..
Comment:
Cylicals , small caps and Financials have given most of Fridays gains back..
Big tech is the only thing with a pulse
Big tech is the only thing with a pulse
Comment:
If QQQ breaks back below 370 or tags 375.50 I'll try short again.. otherwise it's a stay away .
Last week has been a literally V shape..
Just noticing Aapl,QQQ Vshape
Here's example belows
Funny thing is, dow jones and Nyse completed their V-shaped Friday and haven't been able to break above.
Lastly spy finished its V shape recovery..
It's important that we don't breakabove today's highs tomorrow
Last week has been a literally V shape..
Just noticing Aapl,QQQ Vshape
Here's example belows
Funny thing is, dow jones and Nyse completed their V-shaped Friday and haven't been able to break above.
Lastly spy finished its V shape recovery..
It's important that we don't breakabove today's highs tomorrow
Comment:
Basically what I'm trying to convey is, the last 2 day melt up on tech was its trying to complete the would be head on an inverted H&S
Comment:
SPX daily chart..
Similar to the spy but slightly different.
Smacked trendline resistance at today's high
Similar to the spy but slightly different.
Smacked trendline resistance at today's high
Comment:
IWM daily chart..
Bulls would see an inverted H&S forming should 169 hold.
If 169 doesn't hold, then the Inverted H&S theory is dead for IWM and we are headed back to the bottom of this channel.
IWM usually is a leading indicator
So if no inverted H&S here, I doubt there will be one for spy and if that's the case we head back to to low 400's.
Let's see what happens
Bulls would see an inverted H&S forming should 169 hold.
If 169 doesn't hold, then the Inverted H&S theory is dead for IWM and we are headed back to the bottom of this channel.
IWM usually is a leading indicator
So if no inverted H&S here, I doubt there will be one for spy and if that's the case we head back to to low 400's.
Let's see what happens
Comment:
Comment:
XLK sector
Msft/ Aapl
Weekly chart
Close to tagging 2021 resistance again at 177
Daily chart
The Double bottom that propelled this move is pretty much completed . Watch for the reversal candle on the daily close for conformation
Msft/ Aapl
Weekly chart
Close to tagging 2021 resistance again at 177
Daily chart
The Double bottom that propelled this move is pretty much completed . Watch for the reversal candle on the daily close for conformation
Comment:
This is why I said below I'd wait for below 370.00 on QQQ to reshort.
.
Bearish Dragonfly doji on Spy/QQQ for the close.
.
Bearish Dragonfly doji on Spy/QQQ for the close.
Comment:
XLY daily chart
Tsla/Amzn
Rolling over here at resistance
Tsla/Amzn
Rolling over here at resistance
Comment:
Qqq 2hour chart...I still wouldn't long this with a strangers money.
Comment:
Healthcare sector
XLV
Rejected here at 128 fib.. for a lower high
Pray for LLY buyers
XLV
Rejected here at 128 fib.. for a lower high
Pray for LLY buyers
Comment:
You see that 1hour candle on dow jones ? Big bearish engulfing
Structure also looks like a H&S
34,000 support .. breaks that and
33,840 gap close coming
Structure also looks like a H&S
34,000 support .. breaks that and
33,840 gap close coming
Comment:
10yr.. double bottom setup is here of 4.5 support.
Vix 4hour chart
Bullish divergence on this falling wedge
Vix 4hour chart
Bullish divergence on this falling wedge
Comment:
XLK just closed gap at 176.82
Comment:
If you use the All time high on QQQ and 2022 lows you get a certain fib level.
372.26 or .236
Now acting as support.
.236 is a breakout or reversal area
Needs to close back below it to be bearish. Personally I prefer a close back below 370
372.26 or .236
Now acting as support.
.236 is a breakout or reversal area
Needs to close back below it to be bearish. Personally I prefer a close back below 370
Comment:
A few things happened today.
XLC sector hit 68 resistance.
XLK hit 177 resistance
XLY hit resistance yesterday and is rolling over today.
Chip sector is the wild card
Tech topping out.. should rollover starting tomorrow
XLC sector hit 68 resistance.
XLK hit 177 resistance
XLY hit resistance yesterday and is rolling over today.
Chip sector is the wild card
Tech topping out.. should rollover starting tomorrow
Comment:
Qqq breaks 370
366- 367 next stop
366- 367 next stop
Comment:
Bearish engulfing to follow up dragon fly doji on Spy and QQQ
Majority of stocks that where up early finished with a bearish engulfing for today.
IWM closed below 169, very bearish.
Dow closed right above 50/200 ma.
Spy closed right above 50sma.
Majority of stocks that where up early finished with a bearish engulfing for today.
IWM closed below 169, very bearish.
Dow closed right above 50/200 ma.
Spy closed right above 50sma.
Comment:
Over head resistance for QQQ at 372.30 is the one to watch. Looking for a reject and reversal there.
Daily candle was a bearish engulfing so we may fawk around early but by EOD I expect to close lower .
Michigan inflation at 10a.m
Spy 15min chart
Look for a retest of 436.00 and reject
Daily candle was a bearish engulfing so we may fawk around early but by EOD I expect to close lower .
Michigan inflation at 10a.m
Spy 15min chart
Look for a retest of 436.00 and reject
Comment:
Same story .. few mega cap tech keeping it up...
Dow,iwm, and NYA all weak.
Qqq and spy stuck at resistance.
Dow,iwm, and NYA all weak.
Qqq and spy stuck at resistance.
Comment:
Always remember this ..
If you went long or short based on the previous daily candle , then you have to wait it out the entire next day to see it through.. looking at the 15min or smaller time frames is Oxy
If you went long or short based on the previous daily candle , then you have to wait it out the entire next day to see it through.. looking at the 15min or smaller time frames is Oxy
Comment:
Nq 1hour chart
Double bottom almost over
Comment:
375.50 qqq next resistance
Comment:
Qqq 15min chart.
Comment:
Megaphone here on 15min chart
Comment:
Wild...
Over head gap on QQQ at 377.
Dow closing flat for the week
Iwm closing down 2% for the week
Nyse closing down 2% for the week
Qqq closing up 2½% for the week.
Tech keeps pushing this higher.
Yeah... I'll be back after CPI Tuesday
Over head gap on QQQ at 377.
Dow closing flat for the week
Iwm closing down 2% for the week
Nyse closing down 2% for the week
Qqq closing up 2½% for the week.
Tech keeps pushing this higher.
Yeah... I'll be back after CPI Tuesday
Comment:
Hey guys.... I've been trading still just only posting most of my technicals and Ideas via tweets..
I'll be back here next week..
Holiday week so expect low volume choppalooza.
Spy 456
Qqq 391
Most likely incoming ..
Banks and smallcaps look the most bullish..
Catch you'll next week
I'll be back here next week..
Holiday week so expect low volume choppalooza.
Spy 456
Qqq 391
Most likely incoming ..
Banks and smallcaps look the most bullish..
Catch you'll next week