Spy, the Reject for AMEX:SPY by ContraryTrader

Almost there..
457.80 is the final gap close which aligns with previous trendline resistance .

Things are looking toppish on some of the tech sectors.. since November 14th the biggest tech sectors all have formed a BEARISH ASCENDING WEDGE.

I think we will have one more 1¼% pop on QQQ before a pullback through early December

here's an example XLK. (MSFT,AAPL)

now msft

XLC (Googl,Meta)

SMH (Chip sector)
3black crow daily candle
Weekly showing a shooting star
Bearish ascending wedge

Qqq 2 hour chart so you can see the price action.
Bottom of the channel here .
4hour Macd just crossed over bearish, usually when the 4hour and daily Macd crosses over a significant pullback is coming

So yeah I think we have one more nice pop this week then we see from 458 to 446 gap support. Lots of cyber security and cloud stocks have earnings this week, that should have an influence on tech. Core pce out Thursday

I'll go over NYSE and Dow Jones tomorrow.

Comment:

NYSE daily chart..

Inverted H&S playing out here
Pattern completes at 16,090 or 100pts more. Usually 100pts on NYA equates to 1% more on dow and spy

Comment:

Dow jones
35,600 gap close is my final target here before a big pullback

Here on the hourly , unlike Spy and qqq which finished at the bottom of their channel, the dow outperformed Friday and finished at the top. So the question is , do we break to the upside of this channel to start the week or head to support while tech pushes higher ?

XLF (Banks)
Have been rallying also . 11 straight green candles. Banks are important to cylicals and the DOW. I think they will hit a roadblock this week at 35.60 fib resistance and retrace

Comment:

Nq 4hour chart.
Rising wedge fall out.

We'll probably test
15,900 (First yellow line) or 386.24 qqq

If we lose 15,900 then we'll head to
15,833 or 384 (2nd yellow line)

Comment:

Miraculous overnight bounce..

NQ came near 15,900 and bounce

Es chart..
Looks like today is going to be another tight range trade.. most likely mix moves by tech names . Es range 4553-4571.. tight
..

I think Zscaler earnings overnight will setup the real move tomorrow

Comment:

Qqq closed gap at 388.43

Comment:

Nq 1hour chart.
See the red arrow?
Unless we breakover this trendline here expect more fawkery.

Comment:

Look at the 2 and 4 hour money flow on Dow Jones futures YM1..
Any other time the MFI got this Overbought you would see dow down 300pts minimum... Since Nov 1st, they just chop it around until indicators cool off then pump more 🤡

Mid and smallcap tech outperforming.
Magnificent 7 chopping

Like i said, most likely tech pops tomorrow

Comment:

QQQ 30 min chart..
Ascending triangle if 389 holds ..

Comment:

453.29 gap is left opened on spy..
If we break 454.00 spy could go for that gap close..
454 would then become resistance..
No dip buy below 454.00.

Bearish scenario

Spy won't drop to far without Tech..
Here's NQ chart , Bounced off support this morning and range trading..

Comment:

Consumer confidence out 30min after the open. Market direction will come afterwards..

Comment:

Es
2 hour chart
Showing H&S now..
Yesterday's chop makes more since now.
Struggling to reclaim neckline similar to spy trying to reclaim 454.
If es can't reclaim 4555 then we head to 4537

Comment:

Chop.. didn't make a trade yet.. think I will sit today out...

Comment:

Both indexes are struggling to regain yesterday's lows that's now acting as resistance.
389 qqq
454 spy

Technically that's bearish but as long as big tech remain mix, trading indexes is a crappy trade

Comment:

Dow just tagged resistance..

Spy also at 455.50 resistance

Either breakout here or flush back to lows ..

Starting to think this thing just range trade until core pce Thursday

Comment:

Mid cap tech has been leading.. they're buying the dip on mega cap tech.

Qqq 30min chart..
Knocking on trendline here...
I like the long over 391.50

Comment:

Nq 4hour chart
Back to where we rejected yesterday.
If we don't break out here then I expect the yoyo back lower until PCE

Dow jones 2 hour chart. At resistance now..
35,500

And Spy back at 456.40 gap resistance..

Best course of action is not have a stop long your longs and not swing if you don't have to..

I'll be back on later

Comment:

Dow jones 2hour chart and RSI..
Never seen bearish divergence on the hourly last this long. My guess is 35,600 gap is the target before the dump..

Comment:

Spy 2hour

This range trade last 7days... 454-456.40
Could be viewed by some as distribution or consolidation before a major leg up..

Usually you don't see the Daily macd roll over bearish with consolidation. When the price stalls and the Macd crosses to bearish that's usually distribution.

If this is a flag before a break out then this break out will push us much higher then the 458-460 target. Usually flag breakouts reflect the length of consolidation. The new upside target would be 464.80 gap close on spy and 396 gap close on QQQ. Those are the final left open gaps from 2022 sell offs.

So.... consolidation or distribution?

Comment:

Above 458 and we see 460 on spy today.
With the exception of Msft , most mega cap Mega cap consolidated last 4 sessions while mid cap outperformed.
Today megacap tech catches up.

Also IWM has consolidated between 177-179.50 for a week. Watch for a breakout over 200sma at 180.50 to long

Comment:

Going with ARM calls today.. had some nice flow last, pulled back Monday and now it's looking to close gap at 64$ this week minimum.
Long over 62.80

Comment:

396.50 qqq gap close
393.00 support

Comment:

Stopped out arm...

Comment:

391.30
Support on QQQ if that goes market flushes back to yesterday's lows...

Comment:

And that was dip , will probably finish the move up tomorrow...

Comment:

Looking at some big names showing some nasty candles..

MSFT - dark cloud Cover
Googl - bearish engulfing
Meta - Bearish engulfing

Its still early in the day but if these stocks close like this then the top is most likely in..
Market can't go high without big tech

Comment:

Qqq , spy
Double bottom on 5min

Comment:

Qqq 10 min chart

Spy 10 min chart

Comment:

If you look on the 5min chart
That flush this morning on
Spy
Qqq
Msft
Meta
Aapl
Googl

Has formed a minor falling wedge from today's selloff.. could produce a pop

Comment:

Dow jones 1hour chart.
Rejected again at 35,500 but landed and bounced off support.

My final target for dow is still 35,628 gap close

Comment:

If they push this back up to today's highs and close it there,, thats how we get a hang man finish...Be back on later...

Comment:

Those daily candles look terrible..
Especially IWM...

Comment:

Tech sectors look nasty... especially XLY
(TSLA/Amzn)

I'll update

Comment:

XLY Rejected at resistance,

XLC
Googl,Meta

Broadening wedge breakdown

XLF (Banks)
Finished the move higher here to resistance
Expecting a reversal candle here in the coming days

Overall thing are starting to roll over .. I still would like to see mid cap tech which has been parabolic last 3 days halt its run and also the 10yr to catch a bid..

Market consolidation last 2 day did result in a pop but that pop faded

Comment:

Also dow jones finished with a doji star reversal at 35600..

All of these bearish candles need conformation tomorrow so If we gap up on PCE look for a fade

Comment:

NQ 1hour chart..
At the top of its range here at 16085

Bear flag

Or

Double bottom?

Comment:

Qqq 388 is key to market heading lower..
Below 388 and 386 is next

Dow closed its gap.. mostly crm pump.
But crm is struggling at 251 resistance..

Comment:

Regional and big banks pumping small caps

Comment:

Caught a short on on AMD for 112%..
Covered .wanted to short CRM at 251, if you scroll back to August 2021 on crm you'll see a H&S.. it's currently knocking at that as resistance.

. don't feel like sitting around the screen all day today, I'll be back on mid day,
✌

Comment:

Quick update guys...
Dow jones Daily chart
100% Retested rising wedge
Should roll over from here

Comment:

Qqq
Support. 386.24
Resistance 388..

Not a good time to open new tech shorts unless we break 386. We break 386, 384 is next.

Powell speaks tomorrow at 11a.m.. I'll be waiting for that for new positions..

Dow tagged resistance and rejected,
Iwm still can't get over 200sma on the daily.
Look for weakness tomorrow from today's outperformed.

Here's NQ 2hour chart.. most likely we tag 15,800 or 384 on qqq by tomorrow .. be very careful swinging short at this area before it breaks.

Things get nasty below 15800 NQ and 384 qqq.

Comment:

As you can see the selling pressure on META/Googl.
Here's XLC breaking below CPI gap support and headed back to close gap.. should see more selling on these names

Comment:

Spy 15min chart
.

Falling wedge Here at 453.50 support..
Be weary if your short...
Below 453 and we see 451.

.I'll be back EOD

Comment:

Well...
That rip on the dow was surprising..
36,000 is now resistance... after today's rally wouldn't be surprised to see them under perform tomorrow..

Spy intraday falling wedge played out .. see what Powell brings tomorrow.

As far tech

SMH
(CHIP SECTOR)
Closed right above CPI gap
Not a good place to swing short

XLC
Meta /Googl
Closed right above cpi gap support

Updated NQ chart .. bounced off support
I don't like how over sold the MFI is on The 2-3hour chart... could see a pop on tech tomorrow

Comment:

Banks looked the best today propelled by EOM rebalance.
3 🚩 for me though.

1st. IWM hasn't been able to close above its 200sma

2nd. Dow won't break over 36,000.

3. YM1 futures too overbought

DIA weekly chart
Closed at resistance

Comment:

Busy day for me ... just getting on ..
Same support levels held on qqq from yesterday..
Typical , vix crush Friday.
Entire week feels like they stalled big tech rally to let the rest of the market catch up
.
Now we'll see what next week brings...
Job reports all week

Comment:

Ixic or nasdaq .. top of its weekly range.. a breakout over here and tech could squeeze back to weekly high. If it rejects then spy pulls back