FRED:T10Y3M   10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
We got some levels never seen in the last 40 years. Usually, the recessions start when the Yield Curve changes direction and comes back to positive territory. This time the numbers are huge and considering the National Debt Level...we could see an Economic Depression. Interest rates reduction within September 2023 and the start of the Recession by July 2023?
My advice to the Federal Reserve: 💥 Don't Fight the Bond Market!!
Comment:
💥 Here we are....The Pivot is closer and closer, as this Chart was predicting... We'll see what excuse the FED will invent in order not to admit that they've got it all wrong.
- "We will make the Pivot to save savers". "We will pivot because our (fake) inflation data shows it has come down a lot"... We'll see what they'll say and we'll laugh 😉
Comment:
The Yield Curve Inversion is becoming deeper and deeper. Today we got a new record of -1-61% It's possible that the recession will be more profound than in 2008! I still keep my forecast unchanged. Interest rates reduction within September 2023 and the start of the Recession by July 2023?
My advice to the Federal Reserve: 💥 Don't Fight the Bond Market!!
Comment:
💥Recession is coming and it will be tough and, clearly, we are in monetary deflation. As forecasted in January, the rate cut is getting closer and closer. My Strong Sell signal will be at the time the curve changes direction and will get positive. Stay Tuned!
Comment:
Here we are. The Fed today decided to "PAUSE" .... !! Things are going bad for the economy but, don't worry. "Uncle" Powell will save us ;) (No, he won't! ) Powell said, today, that they don't expect a recession anymore in 2023. I confirm my prediction. RATE CUT within September because of the Recession.
Comment:
Here we are in JULY!!! - All the Leading Indicators are showing that the recession is closer and closer...The Central bankers, as always, are clueless and they push things to get worse! 👉 "US Recession Becomes Closer Call as Economists Rethink Forecasts" (Bloomberg 21 July 2023) 🧐 Well..we knew it since January 2023. Not because we are geniuses but because we read the numbers and look at reality. We don't live in Fantasyland.
It will be interesting to see what governments come up with to justify the Recession that looks more and more like an Economic Depression. in 2019 financial markets were about to implode and governments used the pandemic as an excuse to flood the markets with money (debt) and save the ass of the super-rich. What will they invent now? Climate change? Another virus? UFOs? 🤡
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