Zoom out and use what you know to make forward predictions
TLT is a precise instrument.
Weekly rarely leaves a gap behind, and if it did, it was a big move up or down.
It's the most forward looking.
Take for example Jan 1st 2020.
What you will notice is a consolidation at the 200W and a move higher the week after the JHEQX pin.
That move was a clear pivotal forward indication the market was going to crash in Mar 2020.
Now look at the week the fed began QE on Mar 16th.
This QE opened pandoras box of crypto, meme stocks, penny pumps, SPACS, and speculation nation that was 2020-2021.
Now that bonds have been decimated for over a year we are at a pivotal point.
JHEQX is set to expire today releasing a pin in equity hedging allowing markets to make their next move.
My plan the next month is to find a suitable long TLT position for 2025 leaps.
There are 2 gaps above in TLT weekly as a result of 2 major JHEQX pin weeks.
There could still be a drop in TLT the next few months if markets & banks hold strong in Q2 and fed remains hawkish into next hike.
A selloff in TLT next week (rates up) would most likely mark the bottom.
2020-2021 was an exceptional year.
So far the recovery starting in 2022 to now has had its share of exceptional sell off moments and capitulations witnessed for the Sept'22 CPI print.
Weekly rarely leaves a gap behind, and if it did, it was a big move up or down.
It's the most forward looking.
Take for example Jan 1st 2020.
What you will notice is a consolidation at the 200W and a move higher the week after the JHEQX pin.
That move was a clear pivotal forward indication the market was going to crash in Mar 2020.
Now look at the week the fed began QE on Mar 16th.
This QE opened pandoras box of crypto, meme stocks, penny pumps, SPACS, and speculation nation that was 2020-2021.
Now that bonds have been decimated for over a year we are at a pivotal point.
JHEQX is set to expire today releasing a pin in equity hedging allowing markets to make their next move.
My plan the next month is to find a suitable long TLT position for 2025 leaps.
There are 2 gaps above in TLT weekly as a result of 2 major JHEQX pin weeks.
There could still be a drop in TLT the next few months if markets & banks hold strong in Q2 and fed remains hawkish into next hike.
A selloff in TLT next week (rates up) would most likely mark the bottom.
2020-2021 was an exceptional year.
So far the recovery starting in 2022 to now has had its share of exceptional sell off moments and capitulations witnessed for the Sept'22 CPI print.
