Trying USDCAD higher here.
We've broken out of the 50/100 HMA that defined the recent downward trend, we are also at a number of support areas.
Overall i don't think the narrative has changed enough to justify USDCAD making a new low this year, the CAD narrative is good with a hawkish BoC and good CAD data but with the lately hike i think they are sufficiently restrictive now and will find it hard to hike again. The USD narrative i think still has further to go with the fed reiterating higher for longer, rising US yields, better US banking system and global growth worries.
correlations are suggesting higher, oil is moving lower and rate differentials seemed to have started to turn higher.
Sentiment is at a level at which the pair has turned higher in recent years while positioning is a little more clean now and not so much short CAD.
seasonally june tends to see USDCAD bottom out and range so i think this is a decent level to do so.
risky assets doing as well as they are is a little bit of an issue but we will have to see.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
We've broken out of the 50/100 HMA that defined the recent downward trend, we are also at a number of support areas.
Overall i don't think the narrative has changed enough to justify USDCAD making a new low this year, the CAD narrative is good with a hawkish BoC and good CAD data but with the lately hike i think they are sufficiently restrictive now and will find it hard to hike again. The USD narrative i think still has further to go with the fed reiterating higher for longer, rising US yields, better US banking system and global growth worries.
correlations are suggesting higher, oil is moving lower and rate differentials seemed to have started to turn higher.
Sentiment is at a level at which the pair has turned higher in recent years while positioning is a little more clean now and not so much short CAD.
seasonally june tends to see USDCAD bottom out and range so i think this is a decent level to do so.
risky assets doing as well as they are is a little bit of an issue but we will have to see.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!