Potentially a bear flag at the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
The last drop was from 1853 to 1780 (Chart attached below); it was a pretty good trade for the seller.
If we draw a Fibonacci retracement from 1853 to 1780, the 50% Fib is currently at the 1816-1820 zone. The 50% Fib indicates that the Bearish momentum is not that strong.
Also, I notice a potential bear flag pattern, a pretty lovely risk-reward ratio to try to sell gold down at least to the bottom flag line, maybe below if it can break out below the bottom bear flag line.
This week, there's not much high-impact US data, so most likely, it's all based on the price action.
The catalyst:
- US CPI
- Unemployment Claims
- 30-y Bond Auction
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper bear flag line and the 61.80% Fib retracement at 1825 Zone.
Target:
- There are many short-term targets, mid-term targets at the bottom flag lines, Long-term targets maybe below at 1760-1680 zone.
If we draw a Fibonacci retracement from 1853 to 1780, the 50% Fib is currently at the 1816-1820 zone. The 50% Fib indicates that the Bearish momentum is not that strong.
Also, I notice a potential bear flag pattern, a pretty lovely risk-reward ratio to try to sell gold down at least to the bottom flag line, maybe below if it can break out below the bottom bear flag line.
This week, there's not much high-impact US data, so most likely, it's all based on the price action.
The catalyst:
- US CPI
- Unemployment Claims
- 30-y Bond Auction
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper bear flag line and the 61.80% Fib retracement at 1825 Zone.
Target:
- There are many short-term targets, mid-term targets at the bottom flag lines, Long-term targets maybe below at 1760-1680 zone.
Comment:
The price breaks above the 50% Fib. Most likely it will go up to retest 61.80% Fib
Comment:
The resistance range so wide. 1816 until 1825
50% to 61.80% fib
50% to 61.80% fib
Comment:
Comment:
US Jan Consumer Prices +0.6% vs. +0.4% est.
US Jan CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.6% vs. +0.4% est.
US Jan Consumer Prices Increase 7.5% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6% Over Year
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (05/FEB)
Actual: 223K
Expected: 230K
Previous: 239K
US Jan CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.6% vs. +0.4% est.
US Jan Consumer Prices Increase 7.5% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6% Over Year
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (05/FEB)
Actual: 223K
Expected: 230K
Previous: 239K
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