PPI cannot withstand the rise, but short-term pressure 2360 stil

On the last trading day, spot gold opened at $2,336. The European market began to fluctuate upward, touching around $2,348. After the opening of the U.S. market, PPI reported negative gold prices, and the market price returned to below $2,338 but did not stay longer as expected and continued to develop in a higher direction. It finally tested the $2,360 level and then stopped falling. The daily line closed positive, and the overall market price showed a volatile upward trend!



The U.S. PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. The reason for the unexpected growth was the downward revision of March data, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2%, in line with market expectations. Traders lowered expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Powell called the PPI data "mixed."



Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain high for a longer period of time, and does not believe that the next step is to raise interest rates, and is more likely to maintain policy rates at current levels. Confidence that inflation will fall is lower than before. The U.S. economy is performing well and the labor market is strong. Cleveland Fed President Mester said it was appropriate for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged and not be in a hurry to consider raising interest rates.



Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said on Tuesday that his confidence that inflation will continue to cool is no longer as high as it was at the beginning of the year and that the Fed needs to remain patient before cutting interest rates.



According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until August is 72.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 26.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 0.8%.



Focus now turns to U.S. consumer price data released late Wednesday, which could provide clearer information on how the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this year.



Although there is still a long way to go before cutting interest rates, Powell continues to close the door to raising interest rates, which has given a certain boost to the gold market, and spot gold has been able to rise, approaching the $2,360 line.



According to the "Times of Israel" report: Israeli tanks advanced further east of Rafah. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan plans to visit Saudi Arabia and Israel over the weekend, but Israel will not expand its operations before then. According to the Wall Street Journal, Egypt is considering downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel. Changes in the powder keg situation in the Middle East will still affect the trend of gold prices, so stay tuned!



The rise in the second half of last week, especially the impact above $2,378, verified our expectations for the return of bulls. But this rally hasn't been as good as we expected. The yin and yang alternated for three consecutive trading days, and it has been unable to reach new highs. In addition, yesterday's Yang line failed to form a swallowing Yin, which means that the next rise still will not happen. If everything goes well, there is a high probability that there will be an upward trend.



After hitting the $2,360 level late in the previous trading day, it traded sideways around the high range of $2,355 to $2,360 in late trading. This sideways trading cannot be considered extremely strong. The current rally itself is in the early stages of a change of pace. It broke through $2,320 and suppressed the rapid rise above $2,378. Rising too fast releases bullish momentum too quickly, resulting in insufficient stamina and frequent corrections. This kind of sideways trading is not only not conducive to rising prices, but also carries a high risk of retracement. Subsequent long orders must wait for a pullback before following up.



Generally speaking, the bullish trend in the general direction remains unchanged. When going long, pay attention to the emergence of retracements. This trading day focuses on the suppression of $2,360, and then the correction first. Pay attention to 2347 below, and then backhand and go long after the support of $2342!




1. International golden thinking layout, for reference only:



1. Short-term: focus on 2360 suppression, look for callbacks first, and focus on the 2347/42 position as the target below. At the same time, pay attention to the support conditions of these two support levels before backhanding.

Trade active:

Gold begins to correct

Trade active:

If gold directly breaks through 2360, then we don’t have to wait for a correction.

Trade active:

Gold directly breaks through 2360

Trade active:

Just need to wait

Trade active:

I said that gold will rise directly after breaking through 2360. I think everyone has seen profits.

Trade active:

Gold is rising steadily

Trade active:

The gold signal given skyrocketed, with 100% hit and huge profits.