BTCUSD Weekly Analysis 21-03-2021
Last week, we notice a divergence on the 1D TF, so as expected, the price did goes down. Then it slowly crawled up again only to reach $60,000 as the highest point.
During the week, in the lower 1H & 4H TF, we can see that a triangle was formed. It tried to break out the triangle in the upper direction, but it kept being pushed back again into the triangle, until today it broke out again, only in the opposite direction, where at current, it also breaks the 4H pivot support, but not confirmed yet.
If the price stays at current position, then we will have a continuation divergence (the dashed green line on chart) with higher low on chart but lower low on RSI. But since the bar hasn't closed yet, this might or might not happen.
Some scenarios that could happen for the coming week:
1) the price goes back up again above the pivot and bounce back up.
In this case, it will then need to go against several resistances:
- the Fib 0.382 level (in my chart)
- the Fib 0.5 level that is just a little bit under the 4H R1 and the ATH ($61,724.6), which is also about the R2 level on the current daily TF.
- If the price action goes above the ATH, then the next resistance would be the psychological level of $65,000 (a little higher than the R2).
- And lastly, it will meet another big resistance at the $70,000 level (also a little higher then the R3).
2) the pivot break holds up and the price went further down.
Here, we will consider several supports:
- the Fib 0.236 level (which is also about the R1 on the current daily TF)
- the MA 200 (which currently is at around $53,000)
- and then the S1, Fib 0 level, and the S2 that all are not too far apart.
If the S2 doesn't hold, then we can start to prepare to buy the dips :)
If the divergence that I mention at the beginning confirms, then the possibility of the 1st scenario would be bigger.
Remember, this is the crypto market, and anything can happen. This is not a financial advice, but just my own analysis/thought.
** If you agree and enjoy this idea, please like and/or comment. Thanks!
During the week, in the lower 1H & 4H TF, we can see that a triangle was formed. It tried to break out the triangle in the upper direction, but it kept being pushed back again into the triangle, until today it broke out again, only in the opposite direction, where at current, it also breaks the 4H pivot support, but not confirmed yet.
If the price stays at current position, then we will have a continuation divergence (the dashed green line on chart) with higher low on chart but lower low on RSI. But since the bar hasn't closed yet, this might or might not happen.
Some scenarios that could happen for the coming week:
1) the price goes back up again above the pivot and bounce back up.
In this case, it will then need to go against several resistances:
- the Fib 0.382 level (in my chart)
- the Fib 0.5 level that is just a little bit under the 4H R1 and the ATH ($61,724.6), which is also about the R2 level on the current daily TF.
- If the price action goes above the ATH, then the next resistance would be the psychological level of $65,000 (a little higher than the R2).
- And lastly, it will meet another big resistance at the $70,000 level (also a little higher then the R3).
2) the pivot break holds up and the price went further down.
Here, we will consider several supports:
- the Fib 0.236 level (which is also about the R1 on the current daily TF)
- the MA 200 (which currently is at around $53,000)
- and then the S1, Fib 0 level, and the S2 that all are not too far apart.
If the S2 doesn't hold, then we can start to prepare to buy the dips :)
If the divergence that I mention at the beginning confirms, then the possibility of the 1st scenario would be bigger.
Remember, this is the crypto market, and anything can happen. This is not a financial advice, but just my own analysis/thought.
** If you agree and enjoy this idea, please like and/or comment. Thanks!
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