5/16/24 - $you - top pick and size in my book, without question
5/16/24 - vrockstar -
YOU
- has become my largest single name (almost a 15% position for me, from 0% into EPS). i like it anywhere under $20. the math here is simple - at $17.5 today, you're basically buying $2.5 bn of market cap and get net cash of $500 of net cash (don't use the trading view numbers, they don't include marketable securities - i.e. "cash equivalents"). that's a $2 bn company - mgmt is 1) beating estimates as of the last several Q's 2) raising estimates and 3) affirming 260 mm of FCF generation which puts yield in the low teens. you can't find a software-margin, digital identity (future narrative co) trading at anywhere near 2.5x sales and growing 25% throwing off this much cash. mgmt is right to be buying stock at $19 and you better believe w/ their cash balance they're coming for a lot more. there's simply no better place they could invest it so quickly. this ticker seems to behave a bit erratically, so there's merit to building a position. i could take it to 20-25%, but i'm not planning that unless we go sub $15. i'm content owning at this px for now. the options chain will also all you to rent nice income once we breach that $20 level, IV is healthy. i'd sense this name is just not on many people's radars. there are Q's around losing contracts, regulation etc. but given the beats, guide, competent mgmt - it should minimally be on your radar for consideration. compounder. - V
YOU
- has become my largest single name (almost a 15% position for me, from 0% into EPS). i like it anywhere under $20. the math here is simple - at $17.5 today, you're basically buying $2.5 bn of market cap and get net cash of $500 of net cash (don't use the trading view numbers, they don't include marketable securities - i.e. "cash equivalents"). that's a $2 bn company - mgmt is 1) beating estimates as of the last several Q's 2) raising estimates and 3) affirming 260 mm of FCF generation which puts yield in the low teens. you can't find a software-margin, digital identity (future narrative co) trading at anywhere near 2.5x sales and growing 25% throwing off this much cash. mgmt is right to be buying stock at $19 and you better believe w/ their cash balance they're coming for a lot more. there's simply no better place they could invest it so quickly. this ticker seems to behave a bit erratically, so there's merit to building a position. i could take it to 20-25%, but i'm not planning that unless we go sub $15. i'm content owning at this px for now. the options chain will also all you to rent nice income once we breach that $20 level, IV is healthy. i'd sense this name is just not on many people's radars. there are Q's around losing contracts, regulation etc. but given the beats, guide, competent mgmt - it should minimally be on your radar for consideration. compounder. - V