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The Art of Trading: Parallel Between Master Artists and Traders The world of trading, much like the realm of art, is filled with uncertainty, complexity, and the need for creativity. Both traders and artists embark on journeys of discovery, seeking to master their crafts and find a unique approach in their respective fields. Without further due, let’s delve into the fascinating parallels between the practices of famous artists and the strategies employed by successful traders, uncovering lessons that can be applied to excel in the volatile world of trading. 1. The Picasso Perspective: Pablo Picasso, a pioneer of modern art, was never afraid to take risks and break away from conventional artistic norms. His innovative spirit led to the creation of Cubism, a radical departure from traditional art forms. Trading Lesson: Just as Picasso embraced risk to innovate in art, traders should cultivate a willingness to take calculated risks and explore unconventional strategies. The key is to manage risk effectively, ensuring that potential rewards justify the risks taken (we would strongly encourage 1% risk with risk/reward ratio of 1:3.5+). 2. The Van Gogh Paradox: Patience in the Midst of Turbulence Vincent van Gogh’s life and work exemplify the importance of patience and perseverance. Despite facing rejection and lack of recognition during his lifetime, Van Gogh continued to paint, ultimately leaving behind a legacy of masterpieces. Trading Lesson: We can learn from Van Gogh’s unwavering commitment to his art, understanding that success in trading often requires patience and resilience. Even in turbulent markets, maintaining a long-term perspective and sticking to one’s trading plan can lead to eventual success. Although it is pretty common to see backlash from family and friends, if you stick to your goals and passion, there is no doubt you can be the next Van Gogh of trading. 3. The Da Vinci Code: Leonardo da Vinci, a true Renaissance man, was known for his disciplined approach to art and his insatiable curiosity. He meticulously studied various subjects, from anatomy to aerodynamics, to enhance his artistic abilities. Trading Lesson: Traders can draw inspiration from Da Vinci’s disciplined nature and commitment to continuous learning. Staying informed about market trends, refining trading strategies, and maintaining discipline in executing trades are crucial for trading success. As cliché as it sounds, consistency is the key. Creating the trading plan is not that hard, sticking to it is what makes the real difference. 4. The Monet Method - The Beauty in Patterns and Trends: Claude Monet, a founding father of Impressionism, was renowned for his ability to capture the subtle nuances of light and color, often painting the same scene multiple times to depict different lighting conditions. Trading Lesson: Just as Monet focused on patterns and trends in his artwork, traders should develop a keen eye for recognizing market patterns and trends. Technical analysis can be a powerful tool in a trader’s arsenal, helping to predict future price movements based on historical patterns. 5. The Matisse Approach - Simplicity and Clarity: Henri Matisse was known for his use of bold colors and simple shapes, stripping away unnecessary details to focus on the essential elements of his compositions. Trading Lesson: In trading, simplicity can be a virtue. Traders can learn from Matisse’s approach by simplifying their trading strategies, focusing on key indicators, and avoiding unnecessary complexity. A clear and straightforward trading plan can lead to more consistent results. 6. The Michelangelo Mindset - Mastery Through Practice: Michelangelo, one of the greatest artists of all time, spent countless hours perfecting his craft, from sculpting masterpieces like David to painting the Sistine Chapel ceiling. Trading Lesson: Trading mastery, much like artistic mastery, requires extensive practice and dedication. Traders should commit to honing their skills, practicing their strategies, and learning from both successes and failures. The journey to trading excellence is a marathon, not a sprint. Try having small positive months in a row, instead of 1 month with +100% return and account blown right after. 7. The Pollock Principle - Embracing Uncertainty: Jackson Pollock, famous for his abstract expressionist drip paintings, embraced randomness and uncertainty in his creative process, allowing the paint to fall where it may. Trading Lesson: The financial markets are inherently uncertain, and traders must learn to embrace and navigate this uncertainty. Developing a robust risk management strategy and maintaining a balanced portfolio can help traders manage uncertainty and protect their capital. As you have probably heard from many other specialists: “Trading is the game of probability”. 8. The O’Keeffe Outlook - A Unique Perspective: Georgia O’Keeffe is celebrated for her distinctive style and her ability to see beauty in the simplest of forms, often magnifying flowers and other natural elements in her artwork. Trading Lesson: Developing a unique trading perspective can give traders an edge in the markets. Traders should strive to think independently, conduct their own analysis, and avoid getting swayed by the crowd. A unique and well-informed perspective can lead to more profitable trading decisions. There is nothing wrong with being inspired by a post made by a well-known TradingView author, but that shouldn’t prevail over your own common sense and judgement. 9. The Warhol Way: Capitalizing on Trends: Andy Warhol was a master of identifying and capitalizing on cultural trends, turning everyday objects like Campbell’s soup cans into iconic works of art. Trading Lesson: Identifying and capitalizing on market trends is a key skill for traders. By staying attuned to economic indicators, news events, and market sentiment, traders can position themselves to profit from prevailing trends. Just as Warhol transformed ordinary objects into valuable art, traders can turn market movements into trading opportunities. Don’t fight the trends, it’s a losing battle you don’t want to be a part of. In the fast-paced world of trading, the ability to adapt to changing market conditions is vital. Put the ego aside, if the trade is going against your initial plan, close it, reevaluate, and make proper adjustments. If you made it all the way here, we would like to thank you for taking the time and reading our write-up all the way and we hope you have a wonderful trading week ahead!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Investroy
1
Trading Lesson 👨‍🏫#2 - Understanding Consolidations in CryptoIn today's lesson I will explain the difference in consolidations. Some of you are new to the market and are probably wondering what's happening exactly when it's not moving in price and when it's moving down more than up but would later return to the last price it was. Well to best answer that question. It's called consolidation: It's a thing that happens in the crypto market where waves of prices fluctuate up and down calculating the sells and buys of the market until it meets a point of exit - after consolidating the actual price of the market you're in, and only has two places it can go. There are two types of consolidation. The first is where it does a price correction where you have rapid 📉drops or rapid 📈rises. An lastly is a repeated wave🏄🏼‍♀️ that can run in the same location for a few hours, sometimes days, give or take how many orders were made within the past few minutes - hours - days - weeks or months. Consider it like a balloon🎈 being blown into until it 💥pops!💥 Now this is where the problem begins - we don't know where it may go once it's done, could go up or down and when that balloon has popped it's rapidly going there. We could see the 0.00002000 - range within a few hours or just see 0.00000900 range within a few minutes, depending on the orders made for shib and the rest of the market as a whole, this can last for days, weeks depending on the amount of buys or sells. Also note these are when you get the same surprise jumps like we did in 2021. It started off from the 850's and jumped to the 0.00001300 within a day. However; right behind it, is a price correction waiting for a peak in the returns to meet its end. Once that happens it'll just fall or rise back to where the price actually suppose to be and starting the process all over again. You may not know it but there are all forms of consolidations on ever chart from 1 minute to 4 hours to 1 day to 12 months. You're in a consolidation right now and you don't even know it. Like the ones that occur on a weekly chart, This is what I call "a Seasonal Trend" the day, week, or month, is in a seasonal consolidation and is trending high or low. But note anything can stop a seasonal trend and disrupt the flow of it, but it will continue the process as long as the damage done was not to bad such as major crashes in a seasonal up trend due to outside interferences such as massive sell-offs, regardless it'll still attempt to rise back because it's in a wave that's trending up-word, if the wave was trending down then it would do way more damage than expected. But the worst thing to do in a consolidation day - is to sell while it's consolidating, the price may not go no higher or no lower, and if you sell while at a low price in a consolidation you will likely lost position and will have to wait for it to finish to get more shares let alone the original shares, that's if it drops, so best to hold while in a consolidation day, at least until closing. So I hope this answers anyone question as to why your crypto stock of choice is not moving anywhere, it may not move for hours or even days. you'll just have to wait for closing hour to see if it will pop - hopefully on a positive outcome. So Happy Trading Everyone
Education
by Grandmaster_Oz
Target reached! GBPUSD ReviewPrice bounced off the 1.2683 support we identified and rose nicely to our take profit target at the 1.2832 level. In this review, we touch on why we used the 1.2832 level and not the swing high at 1.2850 - a lot of this is down to trade management and take profit placement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
Education
by FXCM
What is FOMO and how we can minimise itI like to try keep explanations nice, simple and short.. everyone one should know the definition of FOMO is (fear of missing out) this is a simple and common emotion that affects us in all different areas of our life but when you bring it to the charts and your trading it can lead to a roller coaster of emotions and mistakes... I found a few things that help me when learning and still controlling it is... Been cautious with who you follow and monitor how your desertions are influenced from others, (hot tips, signals etc) you always want to have a clear view of how you yourself analyse the markets with a strict plan.. you may be a quick intra-day trader but someone you follow gives a signal that might be a trade to hold for weeks... a mix up in trading styles can cost you a loss even though the person you follow makes the right call. This kind of backs off the last suggestion I made but its simple Create a plan, Know which time frame your trading in (short term long term) and trade only if its right by YOUR trading plan. Overconfidence can lead to trying to stay to active on the charts, chasing every possible trade setup and can really mess with your head. Chasing a loss after losing money is another common mistake.. sometimes i take a day or 2 away from the market if I have had a nice winning trade as well as possibly taking a loss. Sometimes its best to take a breather access what you may have done right or wrong and come back with a clear head ready to make smart decisions One of my personal favourite strategy's to limit this situation is, If you want to enter the market but price may not be at the area you think it may support or resist from, take 50% of the usual amount you risk for example you usually risk 1% which may be $100 make it 0.5% which is $50 and then if price goes the way you expect your still entered in a position but then if price goes the opposite way and hits the level you expect then you can enter the other 0.5% of risk to get into another trade a maybe a better entry point... DONT rush into trades on the Monday!! Remember there is a whole week for many opportunity's to arise and sometimes the best opportunity's don't come until the end of the week, I used to over trade on the Monday and end up trying to catch up the rest of the week... So I for a while didn't even look at the charts on the Monday to resist the temptation. Different strategy's will work for different people so find something that works for you and stick to it!! Let me know if you can share any ideas that helped you, it may be able to help someone else!!
Education
by jamison_fx
6
Lesson 1: The Market-Maker's GameLet's look at how market-makers succeed in trapping you and I in the market to make billions. These techniques, when grasped, can have an immense positive influence in your trading. Market-Makers use areas of support and resistance to accumulate/distribute order blocks. This creates massive liquidity for them to be able extract big profits, leaving the ordinary retail trader holding an empty bag. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Support was broken at the 0.79000 zone. They break support zones like this to trap all the SELLERS. those who placed STOP LOSSES at 0.77400 anticipating price to go down are kicked out of the market before price starts to climb higher and higher. This is the biggest reason why traders wonder why the market kicks them out before it moves in their desired direction. It's as if someone is watching your trades. Well, market-maker can see where most STOP LOSS orders are placed. They push the price to those levels to wipe traders' positions. 2. The maker-maker's intention is to take the price up without being too transparent. Their intention is to make you believe that price is headed downwards when in fact it's going up. Their first target in this case is the 0.98000 zone. When price gets to that zone both BUYERS and SELLERS will be shaken off the market so that they can take the price up some more to the 1.2500 zone (3). 3. At 1.25000 more manipulation will take place. At that price level a lot of amateur retail traders will be thinking that price is still going up. What ensues then is a big drop. Maker-makers would have now trapped BUYERS to create liquidity for taking the price down. This is critical to understand. If you can trade how MARKET-MAKERS are trading you'd be able to extract profits off the markets on a consistent basis. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Do drop questions in the comments section. I will be ready to answer.
Education
by SMCSmartSniper1
Why most people fail as retail traders?I see two main reasons which complement each other for the high rate of failure. First and foremost, the media and the industry promote this idea that it’s easy to become a profitable trader and anybody can go it. This is, of course, not true. Theoretically, anybody can do it if willing to put the effort and approach it as a business. Practically almost nobody approaches trading with the same rigorousness as any other professional endeavor. Let’s put aside the first reason, about which there is not much we can do. A big chunk of the industry relies on peoples being naive and we’re not going to change that. On top of the first reason, we have a second reason related to people themselves. Most of those who try trading financial markets simply don’t manage their emotions and risk well enough to survive the learning curve. Managing your own emotions turns out to be a complex endeavor and constantly changing market conditions lengthen the learning curve. One of the things that makes this business so attractive is also the main thing that makes it so difficult to master. The direct and sometimes violent feedback you receive from the market, after each trading decision, has an astonishing impact on a human’s ability to keep his psychological well being in check and control his own reactions. It has the potential to disrupt executive functions and trigger instinctual “fight or flight” responses. This leads to emotional trading or trading on tilt which quickly generates more losses than any other mistake you could make in this business. Most other jobs have a protective buffer zone between usual day to day work decisions and the ultimate feedback — end of the month paycheck. This profession doesn’t. Every little call you make has an immediate impact on your capital. Every little mistake can take a portion of your capital away and every good decision can bring it all back and more. This kind of psychological exposure is heavily distressful and being aware of its mechanisms makes a huge difference. So … psychology differentiates the pro. Don’t get me wrong … professional discretionary traders are not emotionless but are much more aware and in control of their reactions. The successful pro deeply understands that trading is mainly about people's perceptions and the rest are just details. You may ask yourself how can such a level be reached? A starting point is to stay away from any market, financial instrument, time frame, trading technique, or any combination of those that doesn’t fit who you are deep inside. The least the exposure to triggers that can awake the demons within, the best. Always seek strategies that you understand and match your inner self. For example … if you are impatient trade shorter time frames, if you are very risk-averse don’t use huge margin, if you are risk-averse but you don’t have enough capital use margin with a tight risk management (maybe options), if you have a statistical mind try quantitative approaches etc. There are infinite possibilities to adapt to yourself and is a must to do it if you want to have a chance. It always amuses me to see the vast majority of educational resources geared towards what market does when most of the success in this business is knowing how you adapt to the market, whatever it may do. And, of course, the market is, more or less, the other traders.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
1
Valuable lessons about crowds from 2 very good books2020 is a year filled with crowds. Bored by having to stay at home and not having a job, did they suddenly decide to form angry mobs? There are 2 main crowds identifiable in the USA which today (but not for much longer I believe) are the center of the world: - The street crowd, angry protestors that do not always know why they protest, but generally hate the president of their country, hate police, and want to protect blacks. They have been destroying statues like many mobs before them, and display the same irrational & violent behavior of typical mobs. Them wearing masks I think is very symbolic: it reminds me of the faceless character of crowds and the lack of uniqueness, own thought, and self-awareness of its members (we call them NPCS today). - The investing crowd, visible on TikTok and in the explosion of new accounts with stock brokers, TD Ameritrade daily average client trades went up 4-fold since they introduced zero commissions at the end of 2019 following the competition offered by Robinhood that attracted all the small novice clients. All the big brokers in the USA saw record numbers of new investors open share trading accounts. This is similar to what we saw in the late 90s, 1999 to be more precise, in the months leading up to to Dot Com bubble collapsing. 2020 is also the year of the general apathetic responsibility diluting crowd: Every one is willing to submit to the growing dictatorial rule of politicians, half of the crowd believes the word of so called experts as well as politicians and media, and the other half of the crowd plays along with absurd rules that maybe do not have terrible consequences worth revolting against yet. Because of a virus that killed a fraction of a percent of the population: old & sick people that had a feet in the grave. Like the most severe flu or heatwave seasons of the past, we can expect the following years to have less deaths than usual: perhaps the crowd will see this as a success of their absurd anti-science laws and it will empower corrupt and stupid politicians... The herd has been terrified to an extreme point by this virus. While some countries (Sweden) enjoy their freedom and are not seeing apocalyptic consequences, the herd decided to ignore this and live in great fear convinced that the end is coming. And even better! Science has shown that large gatherings were "super spreader" events, and yet, the same people terrified of this virus have gone out - wearing masks of questionnable efficacity - have gone to the street in very large numbers. And "experts" have claimed that the virus did not spread in crowds of people that were against racism but would spread in groups of religious people and beach-goers (smart virus). Can a reasonnable intelligent human being with a functionning brain believe such absurdity? The crowd being what it is I put my article in danger by simply mentionning facts about this current great fear. It takes exceptional individuals to not only think differently, but to face the crowd and say "NO" and try to end the injustice. A great example in the Dreyfus case. Between 1894 and 1906 at a time where anti-semitism was at sky high levels (also in the gentle kind good guys allies countries), a jewish officer called Dreyfus was accused of betrayal by french authorities and sent to a far away prison for life. Even after proof of his innocence was discovered, top officiers suppressed evidence and the real traitor was acquitted after 2 days. The army even forged documents to lay MORE blame on Dreyfus. Everyone turned a blind eye, continuing their routine lives. But Émile Zola, a novelist and a journalist, created a "crazy conspiracy theory" about this case, using logic to show a lack of evidence and serious errors. His conspiracy theory gained followers, and soon Émile Zola put himself in danger. French corrupt disgusting dishonorable and stupid military politicians convicted him of libel, he fled to england for his own safety. The public becomes aware of another crazy conspiracy theory: the collusion between military generals & politicians. Under severe pressure coming from the public opinion (silent majority) the affair ends up being resolved after more than 10 years and after Zola death (he mysteriously died in Paris in 1902 of a badly ventilated chimney). Not every one goes "The emperor is naked". I like to think I would, but it is not by great courage or a noble will of creating justice. I personally find it irresistible to make sarcasm and belittle people that believe in absurdities. I love letting people know they are stupid. I love saying "told you so". The following quotes come from the 2 books mentionned below: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds - 1841 The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind - 1895 Let us not, in the pride of our superior knowledge, turn with contempt from the follies of our predecessors. The study of the errors into which great minds have fallen in the pursuit of truth can never be uninstructive. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one. In crowds it is stupidity and not good sense that is accumulated. Every one has heard of the “Lancashire witches,” a phrase now used to compliment the ladies of that county for their bewitching beauty; but it is not every one who has heard the story in which it originated. A villanous boy, named Robinson, was the chief actor in the tragedy. He confessed many years afterwards that he had been suborned by his father and other persons to give false evidence against the unhappy witches whom he brought to the stake. (Note: Who would have thought?) History tells us, that from the moment when the moral forces on which a civilisation rested have lost their strength, its final dissolution is brought about by those unconscious and brutal crowds known, justifiably enough, as barbarians. Civilisations as yet have only been created and directed by a small intellectual aristocracy, never by crowds. Crowds are only powerful for destruction. Their rule is always tantamount to a barbarian phase. A civilisation involves fixed rules, discipline, a passing from the instinctive to the rational state, forethought for the future, an elevated degree of culture - all of them conditions that crowds, left to themselves, have invariably shown themselves incapable of realising. In consequence of the purely destructive nature of their power crowds act like those microbes which hasten the dissolution of enfeebled or dead bodies. When the structure of a civilisation is rotten, it is always the masses that bring about its downfall. It is at such a juncture that their chief mission is plainly visible, and that for a while the philosophy of number seems the only philosophy of history. (Note: a small intellectual aristocracy, think of the founding fathers, and then the entrepreneurs of the country, the innovators and sometimes the governments the law & order etc) Many persons grow insensibly attached to that which gives them a great deal of trouble, as a mother often loves her sick and ever-ailing child better than her more healthy offspring. (Note: White on Black crime only...) Crowds exhibit a docile respect for force, and are but slightly impressed by kindness, which for them is scarcely other than a form of weakness. Their sympathies have never been bestowed on easy-going masters, but on tyrants who vigorously oppressed them. It is to these latter that they always erect the loftiest statues. It is true that they willingly trample on the despot whom they have stripped of his power, but it is because, having lost his strength, he has resumed his place among the feeble, who are to be despised because they are not to be feared. The type of hero dear to crowds will always have the semblance of a Caesar. His insignia attracts them, his authority overawes them, and his sword instils them with fear. (Note: This book - The_Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind - and these quotes are very popular in MENA countries that went though the arab spring) Many other practical applications might be made of the psychology of crowds. A knowledge of this science throws the most vivid light on a great number of historical and economic phenomena totally incomprehensible without it. During seasons of great pestilence men have often believed the prophecies of crazed fanatics, that the end of the world was come. Credulity is always greatest in times of calamity. Prophecies of all sorts are rife on such occasions, and are readily believed, whether for good or evil. During the great plague, which ravaged all Europe, between the years 1345 and 1350, it was generally considered that the end of the world was at hand. Pretended prophets were to be found in all the principal cities of Germany, France, and Italy, predicting that within ten years the trump of the Archangel would sound, and the Saviour appear in the clouds to call the earth to judgment. (Note: What does the author think when this happens with a disease that kills 0.001% of the population?) Hardly was that monarch (Note: Louis XIV) laid in his grave ere the popular hatred, suppressed so long, burst forth against his memory. He who, during his life, had been flattered with an excess of adulation, to which history scarcely offers a parallel, was now cursed as a tyrant, a bigot, and a plunderer. His statues were pelted and disfigured; his effigies torn down, amid the execrations of the populace, and his name rendered synonymous with selfishness and oppression. The glory of his arms was forgotten, and nothing was remembered but his reverses, his extravagance, and his cruelty. (Note: This is what got France started into the art of coin devaluation then fiat paper magic beans and then the mississippi bubble and later revolutions) The finances of the country were in a state of the utmost disorder. A profuse and corrupt monarch, whose profuseness and corruption were imitated by almost every functionary, from the highest to the lowest grade, had brought France to the verge of ruin. The national debt amounted to 3000 millions of livres, the revenue to 145 millions, and the expenses of government to 142 millions per annum; leaving only three millions to pay the interest upon 3000 millions. The first care of the regent was to discover a remedy for an evil of such magnitude, and a council was early summoned to take the matter into consideration. Crowds are as incapable of willing as of thinking for any length of time. (Note: Very valid for both US street crowds and TikTok investors, thinking is not their thing) The idea that institutions can remedy the defects of societies, that national progress is the consequence of the improvement of institutions and governments, and that social changes can be effected by decrees - this idea, I say, is still generally accepted. It was the starting-point of the French Revolution, and the social theories of the present day are based upon it. Dictatorialness and intolerance are common to all categories of crowds, but they are met with in a varying degree of intensity. It is fortunate for the progress of civilisation that the power of crowds only began to exist when the great discoveries of science and industry had already been effected. (Note: He explains that crowds are extremely conservative and actually instinctively hostile to changes and progress yes they are) Science has promised us truth. … It has never promised us either peace or happiness. One of the most constant characteristics of beliefs is their intolerance. It is even more uncompromising as the belief is stronger. Men dominated by a certitude cannot tolerate those who do not accept it. The art of those who govern…, consists above all in the science of employing words. The beginning of a revolution is in reality the end of a belief. The great upheavals which precede changes of civilisation, such as the fall of the Roman Empire and the founding of the Arabian Empire, for example, seem to have been determined mainly by considerable political transformations, invasions, or the overthrow of dynasties. But … most often, the real cause is … a profound modification in the ideas of the peoples. … The memorable events of history are the visible effects of the invisible changes of human thought. … The present epoch is one of these critical moments in which the thought of mankind is undergoing a process of transformation. (Note: The book is from 1895. Europeans split apart from religion back then, Germans got rid of their monarch in the 1918 and as usual it ended badly in the short term, and after the wars there was a NWO and huge progress was made until recently) Every age has its peculiar folly: Some scheme, project, or fantasy into which it plunges, spurred on by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the force of imitation. There is scarcely an occurrence in nature which, happening at a certain time, is not looked upon by some persons as a prognosticator either of good or evil. The latter are in the greatest number, so much more ingenious are we in tormenting ourselves than in discovering reasons for enjoyment in the things that surround us. Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of the multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper. Its (Note: The crowd) acts are far more under the influence of the spinal cord than of the brain. In this respect a crowd is closely akin to quite primitive beings. A crowd may easily enact the part of an executioner, but not less easily that of a martyr. It is crowds that have furnished the torrents of blood requisite for the triumph of every belief. It is not necessary to go back to the heroic ages to see what crowds are capable of in this latter direction. They are never sparing of their life in an insurrection, and not long since a general, becoming suddenly popular, might easily have found a hundred thousand men ready to sacrifice their lives for his cause had he demanded it. Any display of premeditation by crowds is in consequence out of the question. They may be animated in succession by the most contrary sentiments, but they will always be under the influence of the exciting causes of the moment. They are like the leaves which a tempest whirls up and scatters in every direction and then allows to fall. A crowd is not merely impulsive and mobile. Like a savage, it is not prepared to admit that anything can come between its desire and the realisation of its desire. It is the less capable of understanding such an intervention, in consequence of the feeling of irresistible power given it by its numerical strength. The notion of impossibility disappears for the individual in a crowd. For instance, the difference between a Latin and an Anglo-Saxon crowd is striking. The most recent facts in French history throw a vivid light on this point. The mere publication, twenty-five years ago, of a telegram, relating an insult supposed to have been offered an ambassador, was sufficient to determine an explosion of fury, whence followed immediately a terrible war. (Note: In 1895 it was Telegrams, in 2020 it was Tweets. The more we go forward the more nothing changes) Some years later the telegraphic announcement of an insignificant reverse at Langson provoked a fresh explosion which brought about the instantaneous overthrow of the government. At the same moment a much more serious reverse undergone by the English expedition to Khartoum produced only a slight emotion in England, and no ministry was overturned. Crowds are everywhere distinguished by feminine characteristics, but Latin crowds are the most feminine of all. Whoever trusts in them may rapidly attain a lofty destiny, but to do so is to be perpetually skirting the brink of a Tarpeian rock, with the certainty of one day being precipitated from it. (Note: That book is full of racist & sexist references, I'm trying to filter the offensive stuff) The creation of the legends which so easily obtain circulation in crowds is not solely the consequence of their extreme credulity. It is also the result of the prodigious perversions that events undergo in the imagination of a throng. The simplest event that comes under the observation of a crowd is soon totally transformed. A crowd thinks in images, and the image itself immediately calls up a series of other images, having no logical connection with the first. The king can drink the best of wine -So can I;And has enough when he would dine -So have I;And can not order rain or shine -Nor can I.Then where's the difference - let me see -Betwixt my lord the king and me? (Note: From Charles Mackay directly, not found in his famous book) We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first... It will be remarked that these recognitions (Note: delusional, seing things that are no here) are most often made by women and children - that is to say, by precisely the most impressionable persons. (Note: I strongly disagree with generalization and sexism, this quote is just here to show you how unwise the old generations were, a perfect example of a mass delusion, sexism is never ok) To return to the faculty of observation possessed by crowds, our conclusion is that their collective observations are as erroneous as possible , and that most often they merely represent the illusion of an individual who, by a process of contagion, has suggestioned his fellows. Facts proving that the most utter mistrust of the evidence of crowds is advisable might be multiplied to any extent. Thousands of men were present twenty-five years ago at the celebrated cavalry charge during the battle of Sedan, and yet it is impossible, in the face of the most contradictory ocular testimony, to decide by whom it was commanded. The English general, Lord Wolseley, has proved in a recent book that up to now the gravest errors of fact have been committed with regard to the most important incidents of the battle of Waterloo - facts that hundreds of witnesses had nevertheless attested. (Note: All of history is a lie 🤯) It clearly results from what precedes that works of history must be considered as works of pure imagination. They are fanciful accounts of ill-observed facts, accompanied by explanations the result of reflection. To write such books is the most absolute waste of time. Had not the past left us its literary, artistic, and monumental works, we should know absolutely nothing in reality with regard to bygone times. Are we in possession of a single word of truth concerning the lives of the great men who have played preponderating parts in the history of humanity - men such as Hercules, Buddha, or Mahomet? In all probability we are not. In point of fact, moreover, their real lives are of slight importance to us. Our interest is to know what our great men were as they are presented by popular legend. It is legendary heroes, and not for a moment real heroes, who have impressed the minds of crowds. The imagination of the crowd continually transforms them as the result of the lapse of time and especially in consequence of racial causes. There is a great gulf fixed between the sanguinary Jehovah of the Old Testament and the God of Love of Sainte Therese, and the Buddha worshipped in China has no traits in common with that venerated in India. (Note: From the chapter the leaders of crowds) These ringleaders and agitators may be divided into two clearly defined classes. The one includes the men who are energetic and possess, but only intermittently, much strength of will, the other the men, far rarer than the preceding, whose strength of will is enduring. The first mentioned are violent, brave, and audacious. They are more especially useful to direct a violent enterprise suddenly decided on, to carry the masses with them in spite of danger, and to transform into heroes the men who but yesterday were recruits. THE MEANS OF ACTION OF THE LEADERS: AFFIRMATION, REPETITION, CONTAGION (Note: Hey isn't that what George Soros does?) From the fundamental belief transient accessory ideas may arise, but they always bear the impress of the belief from which they have sprung. The Egyptian civilisation, the European civilisation of the Middle Ages, the Mussulman civilisation of the Arabs are all the outcome of a small number of religious beliefs which have left their mark on the least important elements of these civilisations and allow of their immediate recognition. The philosophic absurdity that often marks general beliefs has never been an obstacle to their triumph. Indeed the triumph of such beliefs would seem impossible unless on the condition that they offer some mysterious absurdity. In consequence, the evident weakness of the socialist beliefs of to-day will not prevent them triumphing among the masses. Their real inferiority to all religious beliefs is solely the result of this consideration, that the ideal of happiness offered by the latter being realisable only in a future life, it was beyond the power of anybody to contest it. The socialist ideal of happiness being intended to be realised on earth, the vanity of its promises will at once appear as soon as the first efforts towards their realisation are made, and simultaneously the new belief will entirely lose its prestige. The primary danger of this system of education - very properly qualified as Latin - consists in the fact that it is based on the fundamental psychological error that the intelligence is developed by the learning by heart of text-books. Adopting this view, the endeavour has been made to enforce a knowledge of as many hand-books as possible. From the primary school till he leaves the university a young man does nothing but acquire books by heart without his judgment or personal initiative being ever called into play. Education consists for him in reciting by heart and obeying. (Note: Clueless idiotic professors of economics say hi) "Learning lessons, knowing by heart a grammar or a compendium, repeating well and imitating well - that," writes a former Minister of Public Instruction, M. Jules Simon, "is a ludicrous form of education whose every effort is an act of faith tacitly admitting the infallibility of the master, and whose only results are a belittling of ourselves and a rendering of us impotent." (Note: Dayum our politicians used to be wise, what happened since then and now???????) Many houses have been condemned as haunted, and avoided by the weak and credulous, from circumstances the most trifling in themselves, and which only wanted a vigorous mind to clear up, at once, and dissipate all alarm. A house in Aix-la-Chapelle, a large desolate-looking building, remained uninhabited for five years, on account of the mysterious knockings that there were heard within it at all hours of the day and night. Nobody could account for the noises; and the fear became at last so excessive, that the persons who inhabited the houses on either side relinquished their tenancy, and went to reside in other quarters of the town, where there was less chance of interruption from evil spirits. No little consternation was created in London in 1736 by the prophecy of the famous Whiston, that the world would be destroyed in that year, on the 13th of October. Crowds of people went out on the appointed day to Islington, Hampstead, and the fields intervening, to see the destruction of London, which was to be the “beginning of the end.” A satirical account of this folly is given in Swift’s Miscellanies, vol. iii., entitled A true and faithful Narrative of what passed in London on a Rumour of the Day of Judgment. A panic terror of the end of the world seized the good people of Leeds and its neighbourhood in the year 1806. It arose from the following circumstances. A hen, in a village close by, laid eggs, on which were inscribed the words, “Christ is coming.” Great numbers visited the spot, and examined these wondrous eggs, convinced that the day of judgment was near at hand. Like sailors in a storm, expecting every instant to go to the bottom, the believers suddenly became religious, prayed violently, and flattered themselves that they repented them of their evil courses. But a plain tale soon put them down, and quenched their religion entirely. Some gentlemen, hearing of the matter, went one fine morning, and caught the poor hen in the act of laying one of her miraculous eggs. They soon ascertained beyond doubt that the egg had been inscribed with some corrosive ink, and cruelly forced up again into the bird’s body. At this explanation, those who had prayed, now laughed, and the world wagged as merrily as of yore. At the time of the plague in Milan, in 1630, of which so affecting a description has been left us by Ripamonte, in his interesting work, De Peste Mediolani, the people, in their distress, listened with avidity to the predictions of astrologers and other impostors. It is singular enough that the plague was foretold a year before it broke out. A large comet appearing in 1628, the opinions of astrologers were divided with regard to it. Some insisted that it was a forerunner of a bloody war; others maintained that it predicted a great famine; but the greater number, founding their judgment upon its pale colour, thought it portended a pestilence. The fulfilment of their prediction brought them into great repute while the plague was raging. (Note: Ah, authoritative "experts" 🤡) But the minds of the people were so impressed with the idea, that scores of witnesses, half crazed by disease, came forward to swear that they also had seen the diabolical stranger, and had heard his chariot, drawn by the milk-white steeds, rumbling over the streets at midnight with a sound louder than thunder. The number of persons who confessed that they were employed by the Devil to distribute poison is almost incredible. An epidemic frenzy was abroad, which seemed to be as contagious as the plague. Imagination was as disordered as the body, and day after day persons came voluntarily forward to accuse themselves. They generally had the marks of disease upon them, and some died in the act of confession. During the great plague of London, in 1665, the people listened with similar avidity to the predictions of quacks and fanatics. Defoe says, that at that time the people were more addicted to prophecies and astronomical conjurations, dreams, and old wives’ tales than ever they were before or since. Almanacs, and their predictions, frightened them terribly. Even the year before the plague broke out, they were greatly alarmed by the comet which then appeared, and anticipated that famine, pestilence, or fire would follow. Enthusiasts , while yet the disease had made but little progress, ran about the streets, predicting that in a few days London would be destroyed. (Note: Enthusiasts 😂. I'd probably be one of them. Funnier to be an end of the world perma bear screaming the end is coming than arguing with idiots and going into despair about the world being so stupid and messed up and hopeless) The prophecies of Nostradamus consist of upwards of a thousand stanzas, each of four lines, and are to the full as obscure as the oracles of old. They take so great a latitude, both as to time and space, that they are almost sure to be fulfilled somewhere or other in the course of a few centuries. A little ingenuity, like that evinced by Lilly in his explanation about General Monk and the dreadful dead man, might easily make events to fit some of them. He is to this day extremely popular in France and the Walloon country of Belgium, where old farmer-wives consult him with great confidence and assiduity. (Note: Aha! I am the master of charts, the legend, I said Bitcoin would one day go up and it did - nevermind it dropped 70% before that and never got all the way to my target) A much more remarkable story is told of an astrologer who lived in Romagna in the fifteenth century, and whose name was Antiochus Tibertus. At that time nearly all the petty sovereigns of Italy retained such men in their service; and Tibertus, having studied the mathematics with great success at Paris, and delivered many predictions, some of which, for guesses, were not deficient in shrewdness, was taken into the household of Pandolfo di Malatesta, the sovereign of Rimini. His reputation was so great, that his study was continually thronged either with visitors who were persons of distinction, or with clients who came to him for advice; and in a short time he acquired a considerable fortune. Notwithstanding all these advantages, he passed his life miserably, and ended it on the scaffold. That is enough I think. Might as well read the whole books.
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
GBP USD Look at the bigger picture Purple arrows = resistance Orange arrows = support support/resistance level 1.28889 4H CHART - We can see resistance has been used and respected many times and price is currently at resistance level, So most traders would SELL rite? 1D CHART - Price is also at resistance level after respecting it on numerous times, so another SELL rite? 1W CHART - Price is respecting this level again... but as support, hmmmmm I can tell you are now confused and your thinking a SELL signal? If you said BUY signal then give yourself a pat on the back ( if you are in a field full of cows ) ;p This is the importance of looking at multiple timeframes on a pairing so you can piece all the bits of the puzzle together and you get an overall clearer picture. Now then our reasoning for the BUY signal, 4H CHART - The last 2 candles formed were big bullish candles indicating a lot of buying power, enough to smash through this resistance level. 1D CHART - The last daily candle was a big bullish candle that also engulfed ( covered ) the bodies of the previous 2 daily candles BIG BUY SIGNAL, this also indicates that price will smash through resistance. 1W CHART - Last weeks candle closed as bearish but look how big its lower shadow was, price tried to break through our support level and failed to do so, closing above our level, this also is an indication that buying power is strong. If price manages to break this support then we could see a further push higher and collect some nice pips from this trade. So all roads lead to a BUY, we will see how this plays out at market open.
Education
by Apex_Gregg
8
Learn how to fish Support orange arrows. Resistance purple arrows. Who says you cant see trade setups just using zones and levels? It looks pretty simple to me, You can see how strongly this zone is respected from where price has entered our zone and then bounced ( marked by arrows ) Now it seems pretty clear to us where price is heading and we haven't got any indicators on our charts at all, just clean fresh charts.... quick someone call the FOREX POLICE because we must be committing a crime as everywhere we look we see stupid charts that look like a 5 year old has drawn on them... These charts may work for the person using them but they are also used to try and confuse people into thinking that trading is hard so they will pay for help from this person. Yes we sell high quality signals, but honestly we would rather people learnt to trade themselves, this is why we don't over complicate charts... YOU CAN GIVE A HUNGRY MAN A FISH TO CURE HIS HUNGER FOR A FEW HOURS... OR YOU CAN TEACH HIM HOW TO FISH SO HE CAN EAT FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE. We prefer to show people how to fish if you get my drift ;)
Education
by Apex_Gregg
11
Importance of key SUPORT and RESISTANCE levelsAs you can see from the chart we have used purple lines to show key support and resistance levels ( levels where price has bounced off in either direction ) Even after the market crash of 2008 the price eventually found key support and resistance levels that had been used years before. The price respects these levels as thousands of traders will also be watching these levels and therefore they will also set orders for these levels hence why the price keeps respecting and bouncing off these levels. We believe in keeping trading as simple as you can to save confusion and key support and resistance levels are a key factor in our swing trading style. If you would like more lessons like this or would like to receive our signals then message us as we offer a 2 weeks FREE trial to our VIP group.
Education
by Stocks_And_Forex_Mafia
21 lessons learned (educational)This is what I have discovered over the last 4 years. It is not advice for anybody. If you identify with some of it, fine. If not, leave it alone. Share your own lessons learned. 1. If I'm on the right side of the trend, it is my friend - else it is my foe. 2. Stalk and plan ahead 90% of the time but trade 10%. 3. Do not chase. 4. Appreciate the power of chart patterns, especially head and shoulders pattern. 7. Markets often disrespect Fibonacci. 8. The RSI is useful at times and dangerous at other times. 9. Always have a sensible stop-loss based on the ATR or an indicator based on the ATR. 10. Study different instruments across all time frames - they have very different 'personalities'. 11. Manage emotions. My true enemies lie within me: fear, greed, revenge and hope. 12. Avoid the news - except for geopolitical or macroeconomic events. 13. Avoid hot tips, signals, courses and following people who set themselves up as gurus. 14. Prediction is nonsense. 15. Confirmations are myths - instead assess probabilities based on the overall behaviour of the market or instrument. 16. Learn from mistakes - even if repeated. 17. Discover and avoid internal psychological biases. 18. Get enough sleep. 19. Get it wrong up to 70% of the time, but limit how wrong - I accept that I'm a loser most of the time. 20. Break the rules a minority of the time. 21. Adapt to changes in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
4 Golden Nuggets of Trading BitcoinHey guys, YoungShkreli here, I am going share with you four lessons that, if mastered, will help you a become a successful trader, so pay attention 1) Use the daily chart. Look at this 4hr chart. This s**t only happens on low timeframes. If the daily did things like this, it would a be followed by like a 20% rally every single time, but on the lower time-frames, you can get stopped out to the downside. This happens all the time and it's why I NEVER use any low time-frame for Bitcoin... and I never will. My strategy works really, really f**king well on the daily, but it's completely ineffectual on the low time-frame and I believe every strategy will be the same. The RSI means NOTHING on lower time-frames, the macd means NOTHING on lower time-frames, so don't trade it. It's that simple. Be patient, don't over trade, and use the daily chart. You will make all the money you want doing these things. 2) Think ahead. Before you make any trade you need to consider two things: a) at what price you are wrong and need to exit the trade and b) how much you are willing to lose. For example, let's say bitcoin is at $7,000 and the prior high was $7,500 and you want to short it; the amount you're willing to risk is $1,000. To calculate how many bitcoins you can short you take 1000/(7500-7000)=2 The MAXIMUM amount of bitcoin you can short is 2. Why? because if the price of bitcoin rises $500 and you were short 2 then you lost $1,000 which was your risk limit. Notice that $7,500 is your stop loss. Never trade without a stop-loss. 3) Program your trading. You don't necessarily have to use an API to automate your trades, you can manually carry out your trades, but you need to be methodical. Write down specific criterion that bitcoin must meet before you buy or short it: this is your strategy. Follow your strategy ALWAYS. you can only become a better trader once you have a better strategy, you can only improve your strategy if you have one, you can only have one if you write it down. This is a lesson that I took more seriously after reading Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio is the CEO of one of the greatest hedge funds ever and this is exactly what he says (always listen to those better than you - be humble). 4) Always evolve your strategy. Your strategy is never done growing. There is always work to be done and always gains to be had. I am a good trader, you will come to see this as we become more acquainted, but I am still ALWAYS growing. I learned quite a bit of Python this year and that has been invaluable to me for trading. I have learned how to automate my trading and have written code that calculates all kinds of things regarding minimizing risk while maximizing exposure, data analyis etc. Even the most skilled trader will not have the best gains with his/her brain alone. You need a computer to help you make sure you are right with your calculations and you need it to understand more clearly where your strategy can be improved. These are lessons I have learned that have helped me immensely and will get you started towards whatever financial goals you may have. These are amazing things to master, if you do, you are on the way to being financially independent. You can really become rich doing this. Trading the markets is one of the best ways to make money because it is a multi TRILLION dollar industry. If you are at the top of it, you WILL become a billionaire if you start a business doing it. That is my goal, one day I will start my own hedge fund and I will become a billionaire. I hope if that is anyone's goal here, I help you towards that goal as well. If my post has been useful to you, please like my work and follow me, it will help both of us. -YoungShkreli
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by CantorTechnologies
17
An idiot's guide to trading Bitcoin - Case study from 2017It's always easier to look back and see what should have been obvious at the time. This is a short case study of how one COULD have traded Bitcoin successfully from it's last epic run of 2017. This should be a precursor to what happens in 2018 and going forward. It isn't a 'method', but is an observation and an opinion that will guide my own trading going forward. A year in Bitcoin is like a decade in almost any other stock. This presents numerous insights. We see that from late 2016 onward we had a series of higher highs / higher lows. If one simply applies a basic 14 period RSI oscillator to the chart and looks at price action, they would see that as long as Bitcoin was making higher highs and higher lows WITHOUT any significant divergence it would have been foolish to take profits / time the market / etc. The price retracements from where the RSI gets into overbought (sometimes significantly) territory simply weren't that large. Taking profits would certainly have led to feelings of accomplishment and $$$ but one would have missed out on even greater subsequent moves. It simply made more sense to be in the market, rebuying at times like July and September when BTC/USD dipped into oversold territory (while still making higher lows - although July is arguable). Note that there really isn't any divergence of mention between price and the oscillator during this time. It isn't until we get to December that we start to see some extreme bearish divergence. Price careens upwards and pauses on 12-17. The oscillator makes a markedly lower low. While in hindsight it was probably impossible to time profit taking unless you were glued to your screen / phone, this was the first real time in the year long bull run to considering pausing and selling. The sharp move downwards over the next few days wipes away nearly half of the coin's value. Ouch! Lessons: Don't bother paying attention to oscillators in trending markets unless they are showing signs of divergence. Selling / timing the market will in all likelihood lead to regret / FOMO / emotional trading decisions. If there are signs of divergence after an especially massive run, take profits immediately. Waiting could lead to massive hemorrhaging of profits. As long as the crypto is making higher highs / higher lows feel free to rebuy in wherever it feels right to do so, especially when it gets into oversold territory. Let's see what the rest of 2018 brings. I'll be sitting around enjoying life until there is some clear indicator of where the market is headed. Note: this same analysis could apply to a number of other coins. I haven't checked.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by timj
2