13/10/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $126,237.39
Last weeks low: $102,038.44
Midpoint: $114,137.92
Well that was an interesting week... A small reminder that when Trump talks about tariffs the markets move, and move fast!
From All-Time-High at the beginning of the week to a -19.2% move, a single hourly candle had -10.56% drawdown alone!
What can be learnt from this? Despite all the technical analysis in the world, if the President of the United States makes an announcement it can shift the market greatly causing a leverage unwind via liquidations that cascade aggressively. Although these large scale crashes are rare, they are inevitable in this market and this will not be the last of its kind.
This week will be very interesting because generally we do see a lot of backfilling the wick which would mean revisiting the key S/R level at 0.25 ($108,000). The bulls would not want to see price acceptance under this level or IMO this is the beginning of a bearish shift in HTF structure. This potential shift in structure would also line up with the 4 year cycle theory as October marks the end of the bull market.
On the other hand, the bounce from the low has been strong, although still some way off the origin of the dump a lot of ground has been recovered. In the past these liquidation events have marked local lows in the market and serve as a launchpad for the next leg up. I do think it's too early to tell if that is the case this time around, I am in no rush to position either way until at least Mondays range is established.
The altcoin market took a far worse turn, majors sinking as much as 80% in a single move! This week will be important to learn what projects are truly supported/fundamentally sound by how they recover.
Projects such as: ZEC, TAO, ANYONE and BNB have all closed higher than their original price before the crash, other projects may never recover.
Good luck this week everybody!
1h
ETHUSDT 1H - Key Liquidity Zones & Bullish Reversal Potential ETHUSDT 1H Analysis: Price is reacting from a critical support zone between the Fib 0.5 - 0.618 retracement and previous day low, both marked as high-liquidity areas. If current support holds, expect a potential bounce targeting the previous day’s high ($4,530.80), with further upside toward the buy side liquidity at $4,748.04. Watch for confirmation in the highlighted demand zone for low-risk long setups. A break below $4,143.60 would invalidate this scenario and shift focus to lower sell side liquidity.”
This chart setup is useful for traders seeking possible long opportunities, with clearly defined risk and upside targets.
15/09/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $116,672.39
Last weeks low: $110,615.91
Midpoint: $113,644.15
It's FOMC week and finally the time has come for the FED to cut interest rates, but by how much?
Currently the probability of a cut is 100%. The chance of a 25bps cut is ~90%, a 50bps cut ~12%.
Therefore I believe a 25bps cut is priced in and expected by the majority, a 50bps cut would be bullish and no change would be devastating to the markets in the short term.
Last week BTC continues its move up and flipped the important S/R level of $114,000 in preparation for FOMC. Ultimately the bulls should now target a flip of $117,500 to continue the larger bullrun move. Should the bulls fail to do so the rangebound environment looks to continue with the low being $106,000 (1D 200 EMA).
As I have mentioned in previous post September often gives poor returns, so far this year BTC is up 6% from month open, perhaps in anticipation for the rate cut to come? I don't see many setups presenting themselves until after Thursday so just being patient until then.
Good luck this week everybody!
BTCUSD📊 BTC/USDT Analysis
✅ Update: TP2 successfully hit as per plan. (As in Previously shared plan)
⚠️ Catch: BTC made a new 1H HH around 113,434, but failed to break the 4H resistance at 113,506±.
🔎 Key Observations:
4H structure remains bearish (Lower Highs intact).
1H still holding bullish structure with HLs along the trendline.
Price is currently retesting our buying trendline zone, showing respect to HLs.
🎯 Scenarios:
Long 📌 Plan:1
Aggressive traders:
1️⃣ Bullish Case (Buying Zone Active)-CMP
BTC is at the trendline support zone → early longs possible
Long 📌 Plan:2
Conservative traders: Enter long only if BTC breaks & holds above 113,500±.
Wait for a bullish 4H confirmation candle at the buying zone before entering long.
📌 Short Plan:
Bearish Case (4H Continuation)
If BTC breaks the trendline & last HL of 1H TF , then Short for 4H bearish pattern continuation.
This would invalidate the current buying zone and 1H Bullish Pattern.
📌
Trade with proper risk management.
PALADIUM LONG we can see trend change on 1h.
i expect the market to go up from here.
trade according to strategy you have and trade in this direction.
On daily we can see the consolidation which i belive will play out if we lose prevos HL on daily trend.
On daily we can also see that we are on strong support, e don have daily candels for long direction but i belive we weill se some up movement from here.
doge buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
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btc buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
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eth sell midterm "🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
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28/07/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $120,241.80
Last weeks low: $114,776.00
Midpoint: $117,508.90
As we approach the end of the month BTC continues to trade sideways during a cooling off period as altcoins finally take the stage. Last week Bitcoin saw a relatively flat net inflow via ETFs of $72m, ETH on the other hand posted the second largest net inflow week ever at $1.85B! The concentration has certainly shifted...
This IMO is still a very bullish structure for BTC, very shallow pullbacks being bought up/absorbed by still happy to purchase at these levels. As long as this continues altcoins have a strong base to continue growing on, if BTC breaks structure and price accepts below ~$110,000 then the altcoin rally will be over for now I believe.
This week some major altcoins are set to reach HTF resistance areas, ETH has already tagged $4,000 which looks to be a battleground level of major importance.
TOTAL2 which is the combined market cap of all altcoins is currently ~8% from the highs, keeping this in mind for where altcoins may run out of steam...
Good luck this week everybody!
BTC Reloading for Breakout — Watching for 1H MSS Flip
BTC has bounced from local support (green zone) and is challenging the descending trendline.
The price is now testing the red resistance zone and the upper boundary of the 1H MSS (market structure shift) box.
Scenario A (Bullish):
— If BTC cleanly breaks the trendline and flips the 1H MSS box into support (with a strong close above), this is a trigger for a scalp long.
— Target for the move is the upper green box/previous high area near $122,000.
Scenario B (Bearish/Invalidation):
— If price is rejected at the red resistance and falls back below the green support box, risk of deeper pullback toward $116,000 increases.
BTC has shown resilience by quickly reclaiming support after a sweep lower, indicating strong demand. The market looks to be reloading for another push, with liquidity building up just below resistance. The setup favors a breakout if NY Open brings momentum. The flip of the 1H MSS box would confirm bullish intent. However, caution if the breakout fails — structure remains choppy and a failed breakout can trap late buyers.
bch buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
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ENA — Range Deviation & Reclaim: LTF Long Setup
ENA traded in a tight LTF range, then deviated below support, forming a sweep/liquidity grab.
Price quickly reclaimed the range low and retested the FVG (Fair Value Gap) below the range.
This reclaim/flip is a classic bullish reversal setup after a sweep.
Entry on the retest of FVG and previous support, targeting a move back to mid-range and then range highs.
Invalidation below the deviation low (stop).
Price action shows a textbook range deviation and reclaim setup. ENA swept liquidity below the range, trapped shorts, and reclaimed support, forming a bullish reversal signal. The retest of the FVG provided a high-probability entry for a move back to the range highs. This play relies on the principle that deviation and reclaim below a range often leads to a reversal as trapped sellers are forced to cover.
ETH Short Setup — Waiting for Range Formation After Parabolic Mo
The parabolic uptrend has broken, and ETH is testing the previous monthly resistance at $3,763.
If price fails to reclaim the monthly level and continues to range below it, expect a sideways range to form between $3,760–$3,850 (red box) and local support zones.
The short trigger is a sweep of the range high (top of the red box) followed by rejection or failure to hold above $3,850.
If price confirms a failed sweep, a short position can target the 1D FVG zone around $3,460, with the next possible target at $3,310.
Invalidation: A strong reclaim and acceptance above $3,850 invalidates the short idea — switch to neutral or bullish bias in that case.
The setup follows a classic pattern after a parabolic run: momentum stalls, a range forms, and liquidity is swept at the range top before a correction. Sellers are likely to step in if price fails to establish new highs above the red zone. Downside targets align with major FVGs and previous breakout areas, providing logical levels for profit-taking.
PUMP Trend Reversal – Testing 1H Supply FlipStep-by-step Price Scenario:
Price has broken the local downtrend and reclaimed the 1H supply zone, showing LTF strength.
Look for acceptance above 0.00445–0.00452 green zone for confirmation of the reversal.
If price holds above this zone, expect a move toward the next supply levels at 0.0048, then 0.0050, and 0.0054.
If price loses the green zone (close below 0.00436), scenario is invalidated—look for a retest of the previous lows near 0.00394.
Reasoning:
After a strong local downtrend, price has started to show reversal signs with a clear break and reclaim of the 1H supply zone. This area previously acted as resistance and now flipped to support, signaling the potential for a short-term rally. If buyers manage to hold above this new support, it would confirm the strength of the reversal and open up the path to test the next local supply zones above. However, failure to hold the reclaimed level (close below 0.00436) would invalidate this scenario and suggest the downtrend may continue. This setup is based on a classical supply/demand flip and early signs of bullish momentum on lower timeframes.
inj buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
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30/06/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $108,531.02
Last weeks low: $99,592.69
Midpoint: $104,061.86
Overall a positive week for BTC in isolation as price moves steadily all week reclaiming the losses made in the week from the 16th-23rd June. This comes after a $2.2B BTC ETF weekly inflow, the 3rd consecutive week of net inflows.
Having now hit the key S/R level of $108,500 it will be interesting to see where BTC goes from here. Jumping up above the level will require a lot from the bulls as ATH is within touching distance and so buying into major resistance is a tough ask. We also have Geo-political uncertainties to add to the situation, one bad tweet is all it takes sometimes to do a lot of damage.
On the other hand the SNP500 hits new ATH in the same conditions and so BTC is more than capable of doing the same.
So far in the first hours of this weeks trading we do have a SFP of the weekly high setup, not ideal for the bulls in any way and so from here the a retest of the range quarters, midpoint being the key area would make sense, invalidation would be a clean break above weekly high with acceptance and strong volume on the move to break the rangebound/choppy environment.
There is also the "window dressing" element to the months &quarter end today. History shows a de-risking going into these events and more money flowing back into risk-on assets in the days following monthly/ quarterly end. For that reason a bullish move (if there were to be one) would come later in the week IMO.
Good luck this week everybody!
BTC Short from H1 FVG + H4 OB Confluence — Risky Setup✅ Price in strong supply confluence (H1 FVG + H4 OB)
✅ SFP & order block add to short case, but context is choppy
⚠️ Trade is low conviction, manage size and stops accordingly
Short Scenario:
Entry: In $107,500–$108,500 zone (confirmation from SFP/OB)
Target: $104,000–$105,000 (D1 FVG zone)
Stop: Above $108,500 or invalidate on strong reclaim
🔔 Triggers & Confirmations:
Look for reaction (SFP, rejection wicks) in FVG/OB zone before adding
Exit quick if invalidated or strong momentum up
🚨 Risk Warning:
Not a high conviction setup; use smaller position size and stay nimble
Bitcoin - Levels of the Range On the hourly time frame it is clear that BTC is within a rangebound environment. Using key levels such as the weekly highs and lows with Mondays highs and lows to to paint a picture of where support and resistance may be.
In the "weekly outlook" post for this week I suggested a retest of the $108,500 area, an orderblock that pushed prices lower and is notorious for protecting Stop losses of the shorts that pushed price lower, nearly instantly as the week starts we get that move to sweep the supply zone and stop hunt the short trades.
After a successful sweep the swing fail pattern typically follows when in a rangebound environment or absent of a trend. This structure plays out and the sell-off follows.
Price breaks through the Monday low with zero fight so momentum is with the bears in the low time frame. Should momentum continue the previous week low is @ $102,500 which is in line with HTF key level too.
RSI is also entering the oversold zone and in a rangebound environment can be when price reverses direction, as seen by the previous Monday High and Previous week low.
With FOMC just over 24 hours away volatility usually follows. No rate cut forecast however many think the interest rate should be brought down in line with inflation as the ECB has already done.
In conclusion, BTC is in a clear rangebound environment on the hourly time frame.
Stop loss hunt/supply zone sweep and then SFP, the LTF momentum is with the bears going into FOMC.
Next point of support at $102,500 (Previous week low) and could be boosted by the oversold RSI.
An FOMC rate cut should be bullish although currently thought to be unlikely.
09/06/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $106,812.33
Last weeks low: $100,372.93
Midpoint: $103,592.63
Billionaire spats and V-shaped recoveries, the beginning of June starts off in an interesting way. As President Trump goes forward with "The big beautiful bill" Elon Musk lets his feelings be known publicly sending shockwaves throughout markets, but what does this mean for Bitcoin?
The bill could add $3-5T in US government spending which is great for risk-on assets as there is more money able to flow into markets. I believe this exact thought process is visible on the chart in the V-shaped recovery we can see on Thursday. A clear sell-off as Elon Musk's anti government spending views clash with the bill, the uncertainty causes a sell the news moment, just as BTC comes into $100,000 the dip is bought up on the realization this means greater inflows are on the way, dips are truly for buying at this stage in the cycle and to me, this proves it.
In a more bearish view of the chart I would say the clear resistance is now weekly high at ~$106,000. Anything above that meets huge selling pressure with price discovery on the other side the market just doesn't seem to have the fuel as of yet to make the next step. However I believe it is just a matter of time and as M2 global money supply grows we get closer and closer to seeing new significant highs.
For this week CPI & PPI take place on Wednesday and Friday respectively. With CPI set to grow from 2.3% to 2.5% according to forecasts it will be interesting to see how markets react, expect short term volatility. Key battlegrounds for me are weekly high and midpoint.
Good luck this week everybody!
BTC | decisionpoint — Bulls vs. Bears Clash at 107–108kPrice is approaching a key decision zone between $107k–$108k — where bullish continuation or bearish rejection will be decided. The structure is currently neutral, resting on the Breaker + FVG zone support.
Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Case:
• Break and hold above $108k
• Invalidates lower highs, opens path to ATH continuation
• Shorts off the table above this zone
🔴 Bearish Case:
• Rejection from $107k–$108k zone
• Confirmed short trigger targeting $102k
• Maintains lower high → lower low market structure
🟩 Support Zone (Breaker + FVG): $104.6k–105.2k
• Key intraday support — watch for bounce or loss
• Holds the structure together; invalidation below
📌 We're at the pivot — this is the moment where market bias is defined. Stay reactive, not predictive.
02/06/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $110,718.68
Last weeks low: $103,065.74
Midpoint: $106,892.21
As we approach the middle of the year, Bitcoin is back above $100,000 despite pulling back from a new ATH of $112,000. In the month of MAY BlackRocks ETF had record inflows of over $6B propelling prices 11% higher.
Last week we saw as the month closed and with that it's natural to have a window dressing period that usually leads to de-risking slightly. BTC stayed within the previous weeks range and maintains the pattern of:
Chop/consolidation --> expansion to the upside --> chop/consolidation...
However in this case the consolidation week had a much larger range than in the past which is a sign to me that the rally is exhausted for now. It's because of this I feel we may see a weekly low break for the first time in a month and get a more meaningful pullback than we've seen since early April. My target would be around the $97,000 area.
The case for the bulls is still a convincing one despite some red flags. Record ETF inflows continue to pour, M2 money supply continues to grow and a general shift to risk-on assets is clear. However these are longer term factors and just for this weeks outlook the momentum is with the bears briefly.
doge buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"