Silver - Eventually new all time highs!🪚Silver ( TVC:SILVER ) might soon break out:
🔎Analysis summary:
If we look at the bigger picture, Silver has been consolidating for the past couple of decades. But with the recent strong rally of about +50%, Silver is once again heading back to the previous all time highs. Despite a potential short term correction, Silver remains totally bullish though.
📝Levels to watch:
$42, $34
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Commodities
Gold Futures — Bearish Momentum Building After Fed CutGold continues to show weakness after the Fed’s 25bps rate cut. Price rejected the 1H FVG overhead and is pressing down toward yesterday’s low (3660).
Key Scenarios:
Bearish Case (favored): If we break and close below yesterday’s low (D-L 3660), sellers likely push toward the weekly low (WL ~3627). That move would clean up the liquidity pool and fill the H-TF imbalance.
Bullish Case: Only if buyers defend the daily low and reclaim the 1H FVG with strength could we see price revisit 3710 (daily high).
Momentum remains on the downside, with ADX > 25 confirming trend conditions. Watching closely for the daily low sweep and possible continuation.
Natural Gas Bearish News TodayNatural Gas crumbled off the inventory report this morning.
Natural gas inventories came in at 90B vs 80B consensus.
This larger than expected build shows a weaker demand for Nat Gas during this seasonal period.
Key things to consider:
1. EU moves to accelerate ban on Russian LNG.
2. New Israel–Egypt pipeline coming online
3. China continues to import from Arctic LNG‑2 despite sanctions
4. Japan’s JERA in talks to buy U.S. shale gas assets
5. Gas storage in Germany & winter supply concerns
6. Western Canada storage nearly full; supply glut
7. Canadian production at record levels, but prices very low
Fed Cuts Rates — Gold Reacts, Watching for Follow-Through or ReThe Fed has just delivered a 25 bps rate cut, and there’s a mixed tone in the after-move: inflation still high, jobs softening, and the dot-plot shows more cuts are expected — but with divided opinions.
On the chart, Gold spilled out of consolidation post-Fed, touched key support, and is now pressing back toward a 4H FVG (supply zone).
Scenarios:
Upside: If price pushes up toward the 4H FVG, gets rejected cleanly → potential short entry.
Downside: If that rejection holds, or support breaks, expect slide toward high timeframe FVG region in 3600s.
Trade with eyes open — volatility likely stays high. Support & resistance zones are critical here.
Ride upside for free - how to manage winning tradesSo you have a winning trade, now what?
You did all that work, youve lost before, messed up before, but right now your starring at a winner.
what to do?
There is an art to managing winners. Some strategy.
My strategy, is to try to Ride For Free.
Whenever possible and ideal, get my capital back and keep the rest growing long term, but for free, and no more risk to me.
Check out the video for more on how to do this.
WTI: Oil Markets on Edge Despite Trump Considering Major TariffsOil prices could drop if Trump backs down on tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but short-term bullish catalysts, like geopolitical tensions and bullish speculative bets, may still push prices up before longer-term headwinds take hold.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on countries buying Russian oil have sent oil prices surging, as traders fear a global supply crunch if Russian barrels are cut off.
But here’s the twist: Trump has a history of backing down or delaying tariffs after using them as leverage. When he does, oil prices usually fall, as the immediate risk of supply disruption fades.
If he caves in again by the deadline, which is 10 to 12 days from 4 August, or extends it, oil prices could drop. The bigger picture also appears bearish: OPEC+ is ramping up supply, global demand is slowing and expected to drop in H2, and inventories are rising (first glimpse by EIA, Wed).
But with the deadline falling around 14–16 August, 2025, short-term bullish catalysts could spark a rally up to the 38.2%-61.8 % Fibonacci retracement levels, positioning WTI better for declines (conditional on Trump!).
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
WTI falls after US slaps 50% tariff on India over Russian oilWTI oil prices have dropped from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India’s ongoing oil trade with Russia. These tariffs, along with threats of even higher tariffs on China, are weighing on global demand and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil production has hit multi-year highs, adding more supply to the market and reinforcing the bearish trend.
Technically, oil has broken below a key Fibonacci support level, signalling a deeper pullback. If prices fall below $62, further downside toward $57 is possible. Upside moves may be short-lived unless there’s a major geopolitical shock, such as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, both the macro environment and technical signals indicate continued pressure on oil prices.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Gold Pauses Ahead of FOMC – Big Move Loading?Gold has been consolidating just below its all-time highs as traders await the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow.
Key levels on my chart:
Resistance: ATH 3737.5 → 3749.8 (DH)
Support: 3715.2 (WH) → 3711.6 (DL)
If the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than expected, Gold could break higher and run liquidity above 3750. On the flip side, a smaller cut or hawkish tone could give the dollar strength, driving Gold lower — first target 3700 → 3680.
I’m staying cautious during Asia and London, expecting chop until NY session. My focus will be on how price reacts after the announcement — that’s where the cleaner opportunities should come.
Patience is key here — the real move is still loading.
Gold XAUUSD: Anticipating a Retracement for Continuation Long📊 Currently watching Gold (XAUUSD), price has been pushing aggressively higher in a strong bullish trend. However, the market is now reaching into areas of thin liquidity, appearing somewhat overextended.
🔎 I’m anticipating a potential retracement toward the 50% equilibrium level of the previous price swing. Within an ongoing uptrend, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement often acts as a prime entry zone 🏹 for continuation trades.
⚖️ If price pulls back and establishes support, followed by a bullish break of market structure, that would provide a high-probability opportunity. If the setup fails to materialize, then there’s simply no trade — patience is key.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is educational analysis only and not financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately.
Gold (MGC) – Watching 3725 Key Decision Point Ahead of CPIGold surged yesterday with aggressive bullish momentum, tagging into the 3725 BFH level. Price is consolidating just beneath it as we head into Tuesday’s London and NY sessions.
Upside: Break and hold above 3725 opens the door toward 3750+.
Downside: Rejection at 3725 + breakdown through 3700 could shift structure, with targets at 3680 and 3662.
CPI & Unemployment data in the NY session may provide the catalyst.
📌 Patience until reaction confirms — 3725 is the key battleground.
Gold - How High Will It GO?📢 NFX Market Update – FX:XAUUSD
TVC:GOLD just broke out of the bullish flag formation on the hourly timeframe, pushing through key resistance with conviction. This breakout signals strong bullish momentum and supports the continuation of the uptrend, especially as it aligns with our ABC Elliott Wave structure.
If buyers sustain this momentum, new highs could be printed ahead of Wednesday’s FED rate decision, with potential for an even stronger rally post-decision - similar to the price action observed during the recent NFP release.
I remain bullish on gold here, but I’d love to hear your views as well in the comment below.
More insights are covered in the video.
BRIEFING Week #37 : Beware of the FOMCHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 38 2025Every week I release a Wall Street Weekly Outlook that highlights the key themes, market drivers, and risks that professional traders are watching.
This week promises to be particularly important, with several events likely to move markets. 📊 Stay ahead of the curve—watch the video now and get prepared like a Wall Street insider.
Any questions? Drop a comment or reach out directly.
-Meikel
Gold - This pattern just repeats!🚑Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) shifts bearish soon:
🔎Analysis summary:
With the previous 10 year bullish cycle, Gold perfectly followed market structure. With this 10 year cycle, Gold is still perfectly respecting market structure. Overall, it becomes more and more likely that Gold creates a top formation with a bearish correction following soon.
📝Levels to watch:
$3,500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Gold - Here we have the textbook breakout!📖Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) currently breaks out:
🔎Analysis summary:
After we saw Gold rejecting the previous all time high multiple times over the past couple of months, we are now witnessing a bullish breakout. If this breakout is confirmed in the near future, Gold will head for another parabolic rally higher, repeating the 2011 blow off top.
📝Levels to watch:
$3.500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Gold Setting Up for Weekly Low Sweep – Watching 3650sGold has stalled out at the highs this week and is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong 2-week bullish run. Thursday’s close left us hovering just above key support in the 3650s.
For Friday, I’m watching for a break and close below yesterday’s low on the 1H chart. If we get that confirmation, I’ll be looking for continuation shorts targeting Monday’s low and potentially the 8HR FVG around 3600–3620 to close out the week.
If bulls defend this level again, then the range may extend — but the cleaner move is down into untested imbalances below.
This sets up Friday as a key day:
✅ Break yesterday’s low = downside liquidity run in play
❌ Hold support again = chop/range into next week
Is there a chance of a 50 basis point cut? SPX traded to new all time highs today.
Many stocks had blow off move or breakout candles.
Market makers cleared out lots of short interest today.
The employment data is starting to get worse.
A new 2 year high in initial jobless claims.
Markets rallied on dollar and yields weakness.
At some point the markets will price in a recession. Growth stocks need to be monitored closely.
We took profits on Tesla & Baidu today.
Manage Crude Oil Risk with Weekly Energy OptionsOn Sunday Opec+ agrees further oil output boost by 137K barrels per day, but less than Sep / Aug output, when market open it went higher.
How to manage short-term risk, in this case opportunity with CME Group weekly energy options on such a scheduled announcement?
Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: CL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
OIL Trade Setup📢 NFX Trade Update – USOIL FX:USOIL
Price pushed above $64, tagging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which I believe should hold. This move looks like a liquidity grab, hunting short stop-losses (our last setup included 😅). Classic SMC in play.
Now we have clearer insight: the key question is whether price respects the 23.6% Fib or extends higher. Based on strong fundamentals (recent inventory build signaling oversupply), I doubt sustained higher prices. The bearish case still holds weight.
🎥 Full breakdown and details in the video.
Natural Gas Inventories Today: What You Need To KnowNatural gas is currently holding the 50 Moving average.
Inventories come out tomorrow and could make or break this trend.
I'm keeping it simple and looking for shorts below the 50 MA and longs above.
Nat Gas inventories estimate is 69B build.
Right now the EMA weekly 113 is a tough resistance level.
Consolidation would be best in this commodity to help support the next leg higher.
Gold Stalls Ahead of CPI – Pullback Setup Loading?Gold has been aggressively bullish for the past two weeks, but yesterday showed the first signs of exhaustion. Price stalled under the daily high ($3,690), leaving liquidity below untouched.
With CPI and unemployment claims scheduled during the NY session, we may see the dollar strengthen — providing the catalyst for a deeper pullback on Gold.
Key Zones I’m watching:
Upside Liquidity: Sweep above $3,690 (D-H) could serve as a trap before reversing lower.
Downside Targets:
$3,654–$3,652 (D-L/W-H confluence)
$3,600 node
$3,530–$3,550 (H4/8H FVG rebalancing zone)
If this week is to stay bullish overall, a proper low for the week forming inside the H4/8H FVG would set the stage for continuation higher. For now, patience until price makes its move around these zones.