ECB President was very clear. There is yet no sign of growth in Europe and worst, a risk of deflation. Refi interest rate has been lowered, and even on the deposit rate, ECB decided to go to a negative rate, like BoJ did in the past. One can think that money withdrawn from the saving accounts would go on the market, but the market is very week, with no growth...
Dear readers, no suprise, as forseen, interest rates have been lowered by ECB President Draghi and no QE has been announced yet although ECB state that they are working on it. 2-We have seen the price as I've forseen yesterday, i.e 4 candles before ECB decision that price my go down to 1.355 and even 1.352 which it did, and now there is a recovery towards 1.362...
As I said this week there would be a slow downtrend and yesterday I said that it will come near 1240 before going up through the ECB Base Rate changes. We have a resistance Break of 1250 and next target would be 1269. Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls have expectations for pushing the gold price higher. If you follow the US economic values after last...
In principale market has already priced ECB interst rate decision i.e to lower the interest rate and refi rate to negatif. Therefore is no decision is taken, Eur will jump high against USD. If the decision of ECB is limited to interst rate cut, then, there may be a swift move down to 1.355 or even bellow to 1.352 but the buyers will come back on the market,...
Friends, A very quick note here highlighting both a long-term pattern development found in a wedge, which I have overlaid over the results of my predictive/forecasting model, whose targets are defined as: 1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14 and 2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14. With ECB decisions coming up tomorrow (05 JUN 2014), the Forex community may or may...
CAC40's was on an excessive level. Above 4506, it is a very illusive and excessive level as far as I am concerned. YOu can clearly see on my previous studies that my headline goal was 4506. I could have reviewed this level if ECB was clearly announcing a European QE which will not yet be the case. Having said that, on a purely technical aspect, the index may face...
On a purely technical aspect, DAX is facing a heavy resistance over 9950. My personal target of FED's QE3 based on QE1+QE2+ DAX's index earning being reinvest in the market was and still is 9706. Therefore I do consider every level above 9706 excessive and overbought as it is now. STOCH Shows clearly the signal of correction. Since Mid March, even later early...
Some FOREX pairs's future are really in between the lips of CB's President either ECB for EURUSD or FED and Yellen for USDJPY. Having said that, the future of USDJPY is in the lips of Yellen. there might be a technical correction on the pair in favor or JPY towards 101.5 or even a little bit bellow, but on a long run, particularly of FED increases its interest...
We are at 12 candles sticks before ECB PResident Mario Draghi makes its statement with regard the interest rate. In both cases, lowering interest rate to -0.25 or keeping the interest rate as it is will not give an impetus to the market because European Banks own savings will not go to investment or to facilitate the credits line for SME's, and the private...
Gold may face a litle technical correction up side. But the general trend remains on the downside. Next June 5th ECB announcement with a "possible" negative interest rate decision of ECB may favor on a short term basis some private trader to invest on GOLD in order to protect their investment and money from desinflation, but, it would be illusive to think that on...
The future of USDJPY pair is in the hands of the FED. BoJ made its announcement in the past week and decided to put an end to the Quantitative easing. On a very long term basis, USD vs JPY fight should end with USD being on the winning side. The "Historical" trading range of USDJPY is between 99 and 104 when the market is not distorted by Central Banks action...
For a few weeks I was writting about the Trend of EUR and making some daily updates sinceApril on twitter and since I am a member of tradingview. Therefore to recall, since Early April , The first part of my trading plan was to enter a long on EURUSD from 1.37until 1.40. We didn't arrive exactly to 1.40 but 1.3990XXX And then, the move down with a...
With the clear statement of ECB President Dragji stipulating that ECB was carring about negative inflation and was seeking to reach its objective of 2% of inflation, June 4th may the date were ECB could announce a 0% rate policy or even a -0.25% which would mean decreasing by 0.50 base point the interest rate. Market have understood and bought the idea....
The round has been won by those who thought that ECB will intervene, and mechanically EUR loose ground against USD. ECB either intervene next June 4th by lowering interest rate or announcing a QE and EUR will continue to loose ground against USD and the phenomena would face an impetus when FED raised its interest rate, or if it keep its schedule with regard...
Where will the balance of power weight??? EUR or USD? Well, on this weekly chart, on can clearly see that we are at an oversold level, therefore, there might be a little technical correction to come. however, ECB has created a clear expectation in the market and everyone is expecting a clear announcement from the ECB President next 4th June. This could be a 0...
A short squeeze will be on the cards the closer we get to the ECB announcement and/or immediately after the announcement. I firmly believe you do not do extreme measures with stocks at all time highs. They will do enough not to be laughed at by the markets and this may include the negative interest rates but they will leave a lot of powder dry and i suspect a ...
Sometimes, we do forget to focus on the forest and therefore on on big picutre, because we are stuck focusing on one tree. On the big picture, we see 3 inputs, which are QE1+QE2+QE3 and there effect on the market, the relaunch of it, the ending period and the effect on EURUSD. With the end of QE3, baring in mind that FED President Yellen is still keeping the...
Central Banks became market makers and the markets direction is pending on CB's President Statement. Normal market is being made by investors, buyers sellers. Anyway, since the markets is analyzing the statement of European Central Bank officials, all the investors are almost convinced that ECB President will act in line with his statement early this month. On...