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NATURAL GAS - Who can Predict this wild beast?Natural gas got demolished today, down over 8%. The one headline we saw hitting the tape that is having some partial influence: "Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook – LNG Recap" Today, we did hedge our core long UNG position with a short dated $56 put on EQT. We are already green on that trade and looking for $56 level to come into play. Natural gas volatility sure trades in a world of its own which is why it is key to size accordingly.
NYSE:EQT
by Trading-Capital
1
Stocks Are Crushing It at Record Highs. What’s Behind the Rally?Happy record highs, everyone — confetti, champagne, and yet another all-time high. The Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC and the S&P 500 SP:SPX just did it again — notched fresh closing records that have traders flexing their P&Ls like it’s 1999. If you’ve been on the sidelines, you’re probably staring at the chart asking: How did we add trillions to market cap while my grocery bill still looks like a high-yield bond payment? Good question. Because these days, stocks are behaving like they live on a separate planet from the actual economy (looking at you, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA ). Let’s pop the hood and see what’s revving this record-breaking machine — and what potholes might lurk ahead. 🤫 Nasdaq: The Comeback Kid of 2025 Take the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC — your favorite tech playground — up a mind-boggling 32% since the April lows . One-third of its total value was minted in three months — as much as $7 trillion added in. What happened? Well, start with the obvious: the Magnificent Seven are doing the heavy lifting again. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Meta NASDAQ:META , Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA — they’re the gym rats of this rally. But here’s the kicker: while the headlines are all “index record highs,” the Mag 7 as a whole are actually down slightly for the year. The hero’s cape belongs mostly to a few standouts: Meta, up 21% this year. Microsoft, up 17%. And Nvidia? Not bad: up a whopping 65% since the April swoon. When the generals lead, the army follows — at least until they don’t? 🤖 S&P 500: Powered by 7, Dragged by 493 The broad-based S&P 500 also clocked a new record close at 6,173.07 . Everyone loves to toast a new all-time high, but here’s your buzzkill: the “500” in S&P 500 is a bit of a myth these days. The Magnificent Seven alone account for more than 30% of the index’s total weight. Last year, this elite club rose 57% while the other 493 stocks crawled up just 13%. Strip out the hyper-scalers, and you’ll find most stocks are still limping along, wrestling with tepid growth and stubborn inflation. So yes — the S&P 500 is soaring. But the S&P 493? Not partying at the same rooftop bar. 💼 Conflicting Data: This Economy Ain’t It (Yet) Here’s where it gets spicy: GDP actually shrank last quarter — down 0.5% year over year. Inflation is still running hot with May’s PCE figure at 2.7% (the Fed’s target is 2%). Fed boss Jay Powell and the central bank squad are trying to thread the world’s tiniest policy needle: cut rates enough to juice the economy, but not so much that they stoke a fresh inflation flare-up. Meanwhile, job numbers are a mixed bag , and corporate revenue hasn’t been setting new records to match those ceiling-high stock valuations. In short, the disconnect between equity prices and economic reality is growing wider than the spread on your favorite meme coin during an illiquid Sunday afternoon. 👨🏻‍💻 Tariffs, Tweets, and the Trump Factor And who could forget the wildcard factor? Trump’s new tariffs. The “reciprocal tariffs,” as he likes to pitch them. One day he’s threatening to slap 50% duties on everything from French wine to German cars. The next, he’s cozying up for “productive” chats with Brussels. This policy whiplash makes supply chains sweat, but so far, equity traders are shrugging it off — and even cheering. Why? Because in Trump’s world, chaos means central banks might cut rates to cushion the blow. And nothing says “rocket fuel” for risk assets like lower borrowing costs. Add to that the weird paradox that tariffs — while inflationary in the short run — can also weaken the dollar if the Fed turns dovish. A weaker greenback means US tech giants look cheaper to global investors. So… up we go. 🏛️ The Great Fed Cut Watch Speaking of cuts: the Fed’s next meeting is in late July, and Wall Street is holding its breath. Rate cuts mean cheaper money — which often means traders load up on risk. The market is currently pricing in a 90% chance of a cut in September (and an 80% chance of a hold in July). Meanwhile, gold OANDA:XAUUSD — the non-yielding safe haven — is selling off while traders are flocking toward the risk-end of the boat, leaving the safe-haven corner gathering dust. 👀 What’s Next? The Inevitable Hand-Wringing So — should you pop champagne? Depends. If you’re a trend follower, record highs are record highs. Momentum is your friend. But if you’re a value purist, these multiples probably make your eye twitch. Big question: when does this all get too frothy? Will the next earnings season justify these valuations? Markets are forward-looking anyway — even if big tech’s revenue flops, that doesn’t mean money will flow out of the market cap. After all, we’re halfway through the year and that means it’s time to pop open the Earnings calendar for those spring reports. Any dip right now may very well be seen as an opportunity to swoop in at a lower price, not as something that indicates there’s something fundamentally wrong with the business. 🫶🏻 The Takeaway: Celebrate, but Stay Focused The rally is real. The headlines are dazzling. But the same lessons apply: trends don’t last forever, risk doesn’t disappear just because the chart is green, and the Magnificent Seven won’t carry the world on their backs indefinitely. So have your stop losses placed right, your position sizes sensible , and your eyes on the macro backdrop. Because record highs are fun, but holding the bag isn’t. Off to you : Are you riding this rocket or waiting for the next dip? Drop your take below — are we so back, or about to crack?
SP:SPX
by TradingView
11
One Last Push Before It’s Over?Total Market Cap  CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL CRYPTOCAP:TOTALES From a price action perspective, the structure looks very constructive: • In May 2021, a swing high was formed, which later became a key resistance level. • In November 2021, we saw a fakeout, confirming the significance of the level. • Between March and June 2024, there was a clear rejection from this resistance. • Eventually, price broke through the level and completed a clean retest from above — textbook move. The bullish structure remains intact and has been reaffirmed once again. With that in mind, a new ATH on Total Market Cap feels like just a matter of time. The 3.73T+ level is likely to be taken out soon. From a volume distribution perspective, the market is currently trading near the upper VWAP band — between +1σ and +2σ, yet shows no signs of overheating. Historically, the extreme zone is marked by +3σ, which currently sits around $4.6 trillion. Wave Structure The impulsive wave that began in 2022 appears to be nearing its completion. Given the price action and internal structure, it is highly likely that the final fifth wave is forming as an ending diagonal. The $4.6–5 trillion zone stands out as a potential market top. Volume behavior is key here: We’re seeing notable vertical volume spikes in the current phase. Horizontal volume (volume profile) reveals a strong cluster and point of control (POC) — a clear sign of distribution. This pattern often signals the final stage of a bull cycle and precedes a reversal. The question is when, not if. That said, the trend remains bullish for now. Notably, we don't yet observe strong RSI divergences on major timeframes, which supports the case for a continued push higher in the short term.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by shakatrade1_618
9
FX quarter end : a high-probability recurring patternAs we approach the end of June, a well-known phenomenon among FX traders is once again coming into focus: when currencies have diverged significantly over the course of a month or quarter, we often see a technical correction into the final trading session, with partial pullbacks in the pairs that had previously moved the most. This end-of-month or quarter pattern is not random. It is the predictable result of recurring institutional flows. Recently, the US dollar has notably weakened against most major currencies. As a result, we could anticipate a modest bounce in the dollar to close out the month and start the new week, as various participants are likely to adjust their positions accordingly. Performance of FX futures contracts from Sunday, June 1 to Friday, June 27: Swiss Franc +3.71% Euro +3.61% British Pound +1.95% New Zealand Dollar +1.58% Australian Dollar +1.50% Canadian Dollar +0.67% Japanese Yen +0.16% Performance of FX futures contracts from Tuesday, April 1 to Friday, June 27: Swiss Franc +10.73% Euro +8.40% New Zealand Dollar +6.90% British Pound +6.26% Canadian Dollar +5.23% Australian Dollar +4.80% Japanese Yen +3.68% These figures illustrate a broad-based decline in the dollar during June and over the entire second quarter. Historically, such imbalances open the door to late-stage adjustments, with currencies that have risen sharply often seeing modest technical pullbacks. This is a setup closely monitored by FX traders, who view it as a high-probability opportunity based on a pattern that is rare, but remarkably consistent. FX rebalancing: mechanics and market players At the heart of these adjustments lies one key concept: rebalancing. This is the process by which institutional players, pension funds, insurers, central banks, passive managers, bond funds, corporates adjust their FX exposures to stay in line with the targets defined in their mandates. Every month, the value of their assets (equities, bonds, alternatives) and currency holdings fluctuate. If a currency appreciates sharply, its weight in the portfolio may become too high. Conversely, if a currency weakens, exposure might fall below target. Rebalancing involves buying or selling FX to return to those target allocations. This process is recurring, predictable, and usually concentrated in a narrow window, the final hours of the trading month, just before the London 4pm fix. Quarter-ends tend to be even more pronounced, as many investors revisit long-term strategic allocations at that time. Many of these adjustments are driven by systematic models using fixed thresholds, which adds to the consistency and timing of these flows. Ideal setup: low volatility, high impact June 2025 ends in a particularly calm environment: equity markets are stable or even rising, and the VIX is trading near its yearly lows, signs of a quiet and balanced market that favors more technical trading. This context is favorable for strategies aiming to take advantage of rebalancing effects, as in the absence of new announcements or unexpected events, these adjustments are likely to have a tangible impact on prices. Conversely, in a more volatile market environment, such adjustments could be drowned out by larger flows (such as a flight to quality), thus having a reduced or even negligible impact. FX options: another layer of flows Another important factor on Monday, June 30: a large number of FX options expire at 10am New York (3pm London). These expiries cover several major pairs, with significant notional amounts concentrated near current spot levels. According to what is currently being whispered on trading desk chat rooms, we expect the following large expiries: EUR/USD: €3.0bn at 1.1650 (below spot) USD/JPY: $1.6bn at 145.50 (above spot) USD/CHF: $1.8bn at 0.8000 (above spot) GBP/USD: £1.0bn at 1.3600 (below spot) AUD/USD: A$1.1bn at 0.6425 (below spot) When spot approaches these strikes, option holders or sellers may intervene to "pin" prices, based on their delta exposure. This behavior can amplify technical price movements in the hours before expiration. When these heavy expirations align with month/quarter end rebalancing flows in a quiet, low-volatility market, it creates a strong potential cocktail for tactical moves, conducive to a dollar rebound into the fix. How to trade the pattern effectively Here’s a simplified roadmap to navigate this recurring pattern: Identify monthly or quarterly extremes: look for the currencies that gained or lost the most over the period; Assess the market environment: a low VIX, no major data or central bank events, meaningful trends, and significant options expiries are ideal conditions; Use liquid and transparent instruments: Sep 2025 FX futures (standard, e-mini or micro) are currently the most suitable products for active positioning Set realistic expectations: aim for a 0.5% to 1.0% pullback, not a full-blown trend reversal Manage risk properly: as with any strategy, always use a stop-loss. This is quantitative trading, not fortune-telling. If the USD continues to weaken despite the setup, be ready to exit swiftly. In short... Quarter/month end FX rebalancing is one of the few market events where anticipated institutional flows can create repeatable, high-probability trading opportunities. These flows stem from real portfolio needs and systematic re-hedging, and are often amplified by option expiries and technical positioning. This setup provides a great educational case study for any trader seeking to better understand hidden FX dynamics. There’s no secret indicator or crystal ball here, just a solid grasp of structural flows and timing. From a personal standpoint, after over 20 years trading currencies, this strategy remains one of my favorites: simple, effective, and highly instructive. I encourage you to study it closely, and observe its behavior during upcoming month-end windows. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by satelysfx
BTC - Consolidation, Manipulation & DistributionMarket Context The current price action unfolds within the broader structure of a bullish leg that began after a sharp reversal near 97,000. This impulsive rally created a clear Fair Value Gap on the 4-hour chart—left behind as price surged upward with minimal resistance. Following this move, the market entered a consolidation phase, forming a range that has now broken to the upside. This kind of breakout often attracts breakout traders, but in this case, the context signals something more calculated. Buy Side Liquidity Sweep Following Consolidation The breakout above the consolidation range led directly into a Buy Side Liquidity Sweep, as price ran the highs just above the marked range. These highs acted as a magnet for liquidity—stop losses from short sellers and buy stops from breakout traders were likely pooled in that area. The quick rejection following this sweep suggests the move was not backed by genuine demand, but rather served the purpose of liquidity collection by larger players. Manipulation and Distribution This is a textbook example of manipulation into liquidity. Price was engineered to move upward into a zone of interest, taking out the Buy Side Liquidity before sharply reversing. The strong rejection signals distribution—institutions likely offloaded positions into the influx of late buyers. This kind of pattern often precedes a larger markdown, particularly when followed by lower timeframe bearish structure breaks. Unfilled Fair Value Gap as a Draw Beneath the price lies an unfilled Fair Value Gap, a zone of imbalance left behind by the earlier impulsive move. These areas often act as magnets for price, especially once liquidity objectives to the upside have been completed. Now that the sweep has occurred and distribution is underway, there is a strong probability that price will begin to seek rebalancing within this Gap. The area between 104,000 and 103,500 stands out as a high-probability target for the next leg down. Execution Insight If you're looking to enter short, it may be wise to wait for confirmation on a lower timeframe—such as a bearish break of structure or an internal Gap forming during the retracement. A 5-minute timeframe can often give early signs of rejection or supply stepping in. Being patient and allowing the market to reveal intent is crucial, especially after liquidity-driven moves like this. Final Thoughts Price doesn’t move randomly—it seeks liquidity and fills inefficiencies. This chart beautifully illustrates that logic, from engineered consolidation to a manipulative sweep, and now potentially toward rebalancing. If you found this breakdown helpful, I’d really appreciate a like—it helps support the work and keeps this kind of content going. Let me know in the comments what you think, or if you’re seeing it differently. I'm always up for a good discussion.
Short
by Louigi_24
155
PCEs & attacks on PowellWe are carefully monitoring the PCEs today, to see, "wins" this small battle in the rate-lowering war. Let's dig in. Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:US30
by Marketscom
6
Beating the S&P 500 with TradingView's Stock ScreenerThis is Mo from MWRIGHT TRADING. The date is Friday, June 27th, 2025. This video is about selecting stocks that collectively have the potential to consistently beat the S&P 500 I look for smooth and consistent long-, mid-, and short-term performance. For that we need Building a Screener What I look for - Liquidity - that means money, or trading volume. - Room to move - no overhead resistance - Favorable trends - stable moving averages - Good short term signals - a good intraday chart Filters - Market Cap 300M to 2B Not too big, and not too small - Perf 10Y > Perf 5Y No long term dips in performance - Perf 5Y > Perf 1Y No short term dips in performance - SMA(300) < Price Price above moving average - SMA(200) < Price Price above moving average - Avg Volume 10D > 100K No lightly traded stocks. Liquidity needed - + SMA(200) >= SMA(300) Stacked long-term SMAs - + SMA(50 >= SMA(200) Stacked short-term SMAs - + ROE, Trailing 12 Months > 0% (Chris Mayer) Improving ROE Examples - SENEA - DGII Review the charts - Verify short term performance - Multi-VWAP (1 hr Chart) - Free Indicator - Above a rising 5-Day AVWAP - Magic Order Blocks (5 min Chart) - Free Indicator - No major overhead resistance - Verify fundamentals and long term performance - ROE (Quarterly) - TV Indicator - Rising ROE - Float Shares Outstanding - TV Indicator - Lower float means lower supply. When high demand occurs, this can act as a price catalyst. - Multi VWAP from Gaps - Free Indicator - Stacked is good - 3 SMA Ladies - Custom Indicator - Stacked is good
NASDAQ:SENEA
by mwrightinc
8
27% Cheaper Than Buffett’s Buy – And Sitting on a Key ZoneHi, One of the most recent and notable additions to Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is Constellation Brands NYSE:STZ — and if that’s not a fundamental vote of confidence, I don’t know what is. And hey, while Midsummer Day is behind us, warm and sunny summer evenings still lie ahead. So why not make your next cold Corona or Modelo a bit more... eemmm... financially meaningful? 😄 Because let’s be honest, I’m not just sipping beer, I’m making strategic support buys to help lift the chart. 🍻 That’s right, not a simple toast but a tactical entry. Cheers to price action! ;) Okay, jokes aside, but technically, this stock is now sitting at a real make-or-break level that deserves attention. Technical View: Trendline — We’re seeing the third touch, which tends to be the strongest. I usually ignore wicks, but this time the confluence gives it weight. Monthly EMA200 — Last touched during the 2008/2009 crash. A level packed with long-term liquidity and psychological weight. Fibonacci 38% retracement Horizontal support — Marked by arrows on the chart. Price has reversed here multiple times. It’s not a coincidence and hopefully this time isn’t the exception. $150 mid-round level — US markets love round numbers, and this one sits right inside the box. Often a magnet for liquidity and reaction. -------------------------------------------------------- Now add this: You’re not just buying a chart level. You’re buying a premium cash generator: - FCF Yield ~6.8% - Operating margin ~34% - Trading ~27% cheaper than Berkshire’s initial average (their cost basis is around $220/share) - Strong brands, stable cash flows, and pricing power Yes, last earnings had a one-off impairment but the underlying business remains rock solid. If you’ve ever wanted to justify those "cold snacks" in your hand as “portfolio research”... well, here’s your excuse. Do your homework, this might be your stock today. Cheers🍻 Vaido
NYSE:STZLong
by VaidoVeek
28
Anatomy of a Breakout: How to Spot It Before It Fakes You OutFew things in trading are as appealing as a breakout. The chart tightens, volume starts to stir, headlines align, your alerts start going off , and suddenly — boom! Price explodes above resistance. Your adrenaline spikes and you pop open that long. But just as often, that breakout turns out to be nothing more than an expensive head fake. Price stalls. Sellers swoop in. Your stop gets clipped. And now you’re sitting there, blinking at your screen, “Welp… that was quick.” Welcome to the bittersweet world of breakouts — where opportunity and deception dance like partners at a high-stakes poker table. 📢 What Is a Breakout, Really? Let’s get the basics out of the way: A breakout happens when price pushes beyond a key support or resistance level that’s been holding for a while. That level could be a previous high, a consolidation range, a trendline, or a psychological number that traders obsess over because humans love round numbers (did someone say Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD at $120,000 ?). The logic is simple: Once price clears a well-watched level, trapped shorts have to cover, new longs pile in, and momentum feeds on itself. That’s the dream scenario. But markets aren’t always that generous. For every clean breakout, there are a few fakeouts lurking — luring in overeager traders with the promise of easy money before slamming the door shut. ⚠️ Why Breakouts May Fail If breakouts were easy, we’d all be rich. The problem is that breakouts attract a special kind of crowd: late-to-the-party momentum chasers, breakout algorithm bots, and retail traders who read one blog post about technical analysis. The moment price nudges above resistance, FOMO kicks in. Volume surges. But if the move isn’t backed by genuine institutional buying (you need lots of billions to move the needle nowadays), it quickly becomes what seasoned traders call a “liquidity vacuum” — thin air where the only participants are you, a few equally optimistic Reddit threads, and market makers more than happy to take the other side. Sometimes breakouts fail because: The move lacked volume confirmation. Macro headlines shifted mid-breakout. A key level was front-run, and the real buyers have already taken profit. It was a deliberate trap set by larger players to hunt stops before reversing. Or — more often — the market just needed an excuse to shake out weak hands before resuming the actual move later. 🍸 Volume: The Truth Serum Let’s be very clear: Breakouts without volume are like dating profiles without photos — you should be suspicious. When real breakouts occur, you’ll usually see strong accompanying volume. That’s your proof that big players — funds, institutions, serious money — are committing to the move. No volume? Maybe the summer vibes are already here . Smart traders wait for confirmation: Is volume above average relative to recent sessions? Is price holding above the breakout level after the initial pop? Are follow-through candles printing convincingly? Are we seeing continuation across related sectors or instruments? Without these signs, that breakout candle may just be a cruel joke. 🤯 Breakout Psychology Breakouts prey on two of the most dangerous emotions in trading: greed and urgency. The market whispers, “If you don’t get in now, you’ll miss it.” This is where breakout psychology becomes more dangerous than the chart itself. Once a breakout happens, most traders are no longer analyzing — they’re reacting. They buy late, set tight stops below the breakout level, and become easy prey for stop-hunting algorithms. ✨ Types of Breakouts Not all breakouts are created equal. Here’s the lineup you should be watching for: Clean Breakouts: The rarest and most beautiful. Strong move, high volume, sustained momentum. You’ll know it when you see it — or after you’ve hesitated and missed it. Fakeouts (a.k.a. False Breakouts): Price nudges just past resistance, triggers breakout orders, then swiftly reverses. Designed to shake out breakout traders before resuming the original trend. Break-and-Retest Setups: Often the highest-probability trades. Price breaks out, then pulls back to retest the former resistance (now support). If buyers defend this retest, you’ve got confirmation. News-Driven Breakouts: Triggered by earnings, economic data, or political events. Volatile, fast, and often unsustainable unless backed by real fundamental shifts. 📈 The “Pre-Breakout Tell”: Reading the Tape Good breakout traders aren’t just watching levels — they’re watching how price behaves near those levels in advance. Tight consolidation? Lower volatility into resistance? Declining volume as price grinds higher? That often signals an impending breakout as supply dries up. Conversely, choppy action with large wicks and erratic volume often signals indecision — ripe conditions for failed breakouts and fakeouts. Tape-reading matters. The cleaner the structure before the breakout, the better your odds. 💰 Breakout Traders Need Thick Skin Even with perfect analysis, breakout trading requires accepting that many will fail. That’s the game. Your job isn’t to nail every breakout — it’s to size your positions properly , keep losses small when faked out, and let the clean breakouts run when you catch one. Stop-loss discipline is everything. Breakouts are binary events: you’re either right quickly, or you’re cutting the trade quickly. There’s no room for “maybe it’ll come back.” The most painful breakouts are the ones that fake out, stop you, then continue in your original direction. Every breakout trader has lived that nightmare. Accept it. Build it into your risk plan. 👉 Takeaway: Prepare the Setup, Anticipate the Fakeout Breakouts will always be part of every trader’s playbook. But they require discipline, experience, and an iron stomach. The market loves to tempt you with early signals — your job is to separate signal from noise. Pro tip: Start your day by checking the Economic calendar and browsing the latest news — staying informed (and witty) helps you build better context for smarter decisions. So before you chase that next breakout candle, ask yourself: Is volume there? Is the broader market supportive? Have I managed my risk before clicking buy? Because in trading, the only thing worse than missing a breakout… is getting faked out and blowing up your account chasing it. Now over to you : Are you a breakout trader or a fakeout victim? Share your best (or worst) breakout stories — we’ve all been there.
Education
by TradingView
25
Ethereum at Key Resistance After Short Squeeze BounceEthereum recently found a local bottom at $2,111, triggering a sharp bounce that resembles a short squeeze. However, the rally has met a significant resistance zone—a former support level now flipped into resistance. This zone is technically loaded with multiple confluences: the point of control, the VWAP, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,550 weak resistance area. Reclaiming this zone is essential for Ethereum to regain bullish momentum. Structurally, the daily market structure has shifted. The previous trend of consecutive higher highs and higher lows has been broken with the recent drop, signaling a bearish structural shift unless key levels are reclaimed. If Ethereum fails to break and hold above $2,550, the current move may confirm as a bearish retest, increasing the likelihood of a rotation back to $2,227 in the near term. A loss of $2,227 would open the door for a much deeper correction, targeting the $1,790 support zone—a critical level that acted as a base during previous consolidations. At this point, Ethereum sits at a pivotal juncture. The reaction at current resistance will determine whether bulls can regain control or if bears will drive the next leg lower.
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
39
How to Spot Head & Shoulders Patterns in TradingViewDiscover how to identify and validate Head & Shoulders patterns using TradingView's built-in pattern recognition tools in this detailed tutorial from Optimus Futures. Chart patterns are essential tools for many futures traders, and the Head & Shoulders formation is among the most recognized reversal patterns in technical analysis. What You'll Learn: • Understanding the Head & Shoulders pattern: a key reversal formation in technical analysis • How to access and use TradingView's pattern drawing tools and objects • Step-by-step process for identifying potential Head & Shoulders formations on any timeframe • Techniques for spotting the "head" by locating the highest high or lowest low pivot points • How to identify matching "shoulders" on either side of the head formation • Validating your pattern identification using TradingView's drawing tools • Real-world example using crude oil futures on an hourly chart from October 2024 • Key characteristics that distinguish bearish Head & Shoulders reversal patterns • Best practices for using pivot points and swing analysis in pattern recognition This tutorial may benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to improve their chart pattern recognition skills in TradingView. The techniques demonstrated could help you identify potential reversal opportunities and make more informed trading decisions when these classic formations appear on your charts. Keywords: Head and Shoulders pattern, TradingView tutorial, chart patterns, technical analysis, reversal patterns, futures trading, pivot points, swing analysis, pattern recognition, trading education Visit Optimus Futures to learn more about trading futures with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by OptimusFutures
3
Nasdaq All-Time Highs, S&P Close, Blast Off or Breakdown?What an incredible melt-up since April 7 lows in the US markets. Trump vs Musk - ignored Iran vs Israel - ignored High Valuations - ignored FED Pausing - ignored The US economy is resilient and it's a good thing because the world is performing really well (EX-US). Europe/China/India/Emerging Markets are outperforming the US by 15-16% YTD The USD is having one its worst years ever in 2025 Gold, Silver, Bitcoin are great diversifiers in my opinion for 2025 Oil prices are incredibly volatile and energy stocks and commodities in turn are showing volatility and big swings As we near end of month and end of Q2, I have to believe the market is due for a small pause or pullback sooner rather than later - but we'll see Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
5
A Step-by-step Guide to One of the Chart Analysis MethodHello Friends, Welcome to RK_Chaarts, Today we're going to learn step-by-step guide to one of the chart analysis Method by analyzing a chart of " Varun Beverages Ltd. (VBL) " to identify a trend change opportunity.(Educational Post). Let's get started! Applying Elliott Wave Theory First, we can see that the bottom formed in March 2025 is likely a Wave ((4)) in Black as a bottom, marked as such on the chart. From there, Wave 5 should move upwards. Looking at the daily timeframe, we can see that price gone up in five sub-divisions of Wave (1) in Blue of Wave ((5)) in Black have completed, marked as Red 1-2-3-4-5, that means blue intermediate Wave (1) has ended, and Wave (2) has begun, which is unfolded in corrective nature marked as WXY in Red of Wave (2) in Blue. According to the wave principle, Wave (2) should not retrace more than 100% of Wave (1), which started from the 419.65 bottom. Therefore, 419.65 becomes our invalidation level. If the price moves below this level, it would invalidate our Wave (2) principle. Assuming our wave counts are correct, the upward movement is in the five sub-divisions, and the downward movement is in the three sub-divisions. Definitely, the conviction is increasing that we have correctly identified Waves (1) and (2). Shown in chart image below Tweezers at Bottom Now, we can see that Wave 2 has retraced more than 70% and has formed a Tweezer candlestick pattern at the bottom. A bearish candle was followed by a bullish candle, both with a Tweezer-like shape, with the second candle being green. This could indicate a potential reversal. Moreover, the latest candle has also taken out the high of the previous two candles, showing follow-through. The price has also shown follow-through on the upside after that. So, this can be considered as the first sign that Wave 2 might be ending, marked by a significant Tweezer pattern at the bottom with a follow-through candle. Shown in chart image below Significant Breakout Pending Yet Secondly, from the top where Wave 1 ended, we've been considering the decline from around 560.50 as a resistance. We drew a resistance trend line, and if the price breaks out above it, we can say that the resistance trend line has been broken, indicating a breakout above the last fall's trend line, Which is not Broken yet. Shown in chart image below Dow Theory The Dow Theory states that when the price moves up, it forms a Higher High, Higher Low pattern, and when it moves down, it forms a Lower High, Lower Low pattern. Somehow, the Dow Theory also needs to change, as the last swing was forming a Lower High, Lower Low pattern. The last swing high was at 479, which we marked with a green arrow. If the price crosses above it, we can say that the price is now forming a Higher High pattern. This indicates that the Dow Theory is changing from a falling trend to a rising trend. Shown in chart image below Stop Loss Once the Dow Theory also changes, we can use the last swing low at 446.15 as our stop loss. However, this stop loss will only be valid after the Dow Theory changes; otherwise, the invalidation level will remain at 419. Shown in chart image below Projected Target of Wave (3) So, friends, we've applied the Elliott Wave principle, and there's been a significant retracement, all within the valid range, without violating any rules or triggering invalidation. There's limited room left on the downside, and then we have the Tweezer candlestick pattern, which is a significant sign. We're expecting a reversal from there, and the price has followed up with an upward move. What's left now is the breakout above the resistance trend line and a change in the Dow Theory. Once these two conditions are confirmed, all parameters will match, and we can add a position to our portfolio using the last swing low as our stop loss, instead of the invalidation level. This is how chart analysis is done for investment purposes. We've seen many signs in our favor, and yet we still use a stop loss to prevent significant losses in case the stock or market moves unexpectedly. This is what stop loss is all about - minimizing potential losses. We've also discussed the target projection based on Wave theory, 161.8% level, which we explained through an image. So, friends, I hope you've understood the entire conclusion and learned how to analyze charts using different methods, one of which we shared with you today. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:VBLEducation
by RK_Chaarts
27
Ride UBER to $300.00 The chart of Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) showcases a multi-year bullish setup following a prolonged accumulation phase and key breakout signals: Consolidation: The stock entered a horizontal consolidation phase above previous resistance, now acting as strong support ($60–$80), confirmed by multiple bounce points (green arrows). Measured Move Projection: The current breakout from consolidation implies a 34% immediate upside target to $110.36, followed by a long-term target of $316.90, mirroring the prior major impulse. Volume Profile: Volume spikes during uptrends and stable participation during consolidation suggest institutional accumulation. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Support Zones: $80.00 (major), $60.00 (breakdown risk), Short-Term Target: $110.36 Long-Term Extension Target: $316.90 (288% move)
NYSE:UBERLong
by HernandezCapital
22
Bitcoin Analysis 23-Jun-25Bitcoin price in the weekend retested around 98,500$, this drop was mainly supported by the fear in the markets due to the escalations in the Middle East, & the US taking part in the War. In this short analysis video, we will be discussing the Areas of interest and possible price movement we could see. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:BTCUSD
by easyMarkets
15
Coffee just gave a two-bar reversal to go long6 23 25 oil just went higher presumably from what happened with Tehran... and I heard several people say that oils going a lot higher. I really don't believe that but more importantly we can use some of the tools on the chart to decide when to take trades as a buyer and a seller. there's a clear difference between the S&P and the Russell and I would treat both of them differently. Tesla is bullish but it is coming to the sellers and they talked about that in the video. there are several other markets that I looked at as well.
COMEX:SI1!
by ScottBogatin
4
Mechanical rangesMany traders will talk about things like "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and think they have found something new. The truth is, everything in trading stems back to Liquidity. There is no "Algo" nobody is out to get you specifically. The market is always right, where you position yourself is your own choice. I have written several posts on mechanical trading, recorded a number of streams. The more mechanical you can make the process, the less the emotions have a chance to kick your ass. Let me give you a very simple method of being able to identify the ranges. Ignore the timeframes as this will work on any of them, on most instruments. (I say most, as some behave differently due to how it attracts liquidity). Lets assume high end crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and of course Forex in the general sense, stocks, commodities etc. This is simple - only 2 rules. You start by zooming out and giving yourself a general feel for the trend. Let's say this looks to be an uptrend - we now need to understand the rules. An opposing candle can simply be defined by a different colour. If the trend is up (Green) and we see a red candle - then it's an opposing candle. The inverse is true, if we are down and the trend is Red. Then a Green candle would be opposing. This is only half of the story. The second rule is a pullback candle or even a sequence of candles. This simply means either the very same opposing candle that doesn't make a new high or low (depending on the trend up not making fresh highs or down not taking new lows). In this image, you can see we have in one candle both an opposing and pullback in one candle. This means we can now mark the high of the range. Working backwards to identify the swing range low. This easy method means I can draw a range exactly the same and mechanically every single time. Giving me a mechanical range. We could then get a lot more technical by looking for liquidity, 50% of the range or places such as supply or demand areas. But these are all for other posts. For now, getting a range on the higher timeframes means you can work down and down into a timeframe you are likely to want to trade on. These ranges will give clues to draws and runs of liquidity. This will also help identify changes in the character and fresh breaks of structure. Here's another post I posted on the mechanical structures and techniques. More in the next post. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
Tesla Rolls Out Much-Awaited Robotaxis. Buy or Sell the Stock?They’re here. After years of tweets, teasers, and timelines that aged like unrefrigerated dairy, Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA officially launched its long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. The self-driving revolution, we were told, would arrive like a lightning bolt. Instead, it quietly rolled up to the curb with a safety monitor riding shotgun. On Sunday, ( as promised ) a small, highly curated fleet of Teslas — fully driverless, but not entirely unsupervised — began picking up paying passengers in an isolated section of Austin. CEO Elon Musk, as usual, led the cheer squad, declaring victory on X. “Super congratulations to the Tesla AI software and chip design teams on a successful robotaxi launch!! Both the AI chip and software teams were built from scratch within Tesla.” Investors, naturally, perked up. Tesla shares edged higher by more than 5% Monday morning as Wall Street tried to figure out whether this was the long-awaited catalyst for another rally… or just another “sell-the-news” moment that fizzles as quickly as the hype fades. 🔔 The Soft Launch Heard Around The Internet Let’s not get carried away. This wasn’t a citywide revolution. Tesla’s launch was extremely limited — more of a PR exercise than a true market rollout. Only a handful of Teslas were involved, operating in a tightly controlled, geofenced area. The riders? Carefully selected influencers, many of whom were more excited to film TikToks than analyze technical driving capability. In other words, this wasn’t exactly New York City rush-hour stress testing. The rides cost a flat fee of $4.20, because, of course they did. And while the cars drove themselves, safety monitors sat in the front passenger seats — a very human reminder that the project is still very much in beta mode. The bigger question for investors: Does this prove Tesla’s technology is ready for prime time? Or is it simply an appetizer served years before the main course? 📈 The Market Reaction: Buy the Rumor, Sell the Launch? Here’s where things get tricky for traders. The stock market, as always, is forward-looking. Tesla stock didn’t just wake up bullish on Monday because of a few rides in Austin — it’s been rallying for months because of the promise of robotaxis. Since Tesla’s big October 10 robotaxi event — where Musk laid out plans to launch a self-driving cab service in 2025 — shares have climbed roughly 35%. Much of that gain is already baked into expectations for Tesla finally delivering on what Musk has been promising since at least 2016. Now that the product is technically “live,” even in tiny demo form, some traders are wondering: is this the start of an even bigger rally? The answer probably depends on how fast Tesla can scale. And that’s where reality gets stickier. 🤔 The Scaling Problem: A Long Road Ahead As exciting as Sunday’s launch may have been for influencers and Tesla superfans, it’s not exactly proof of scalability. Deploying 10 carefully monitored cars in a tiny slice of Austin is one thing; blanketing entire metro areas, or states, or countries is another beast entirely. Tesla’s AI software may be improving, and its in-house chip design gives it some vertical integration advantages. But scaling fully autonomous fleets will require navigating a minefield of regulatory, safety, and logistical challenges — not to mention stiff competition. Alphabet’s Waymo is already operating robotaxi services in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, with years of public road testing under its belt. Cruise (General Motors) ran its own driverless service before recently pausing operations after high-profile safety incidents. The technology arms race is fierce — and far from settled. Industry experts continue to caution that mass-market robotaxis may take years — if not decades — to fully materialize. And while Tesla loves to move fast and break things, cities, regulators, and insurance companies tend to prefer a bit more caution when thousands of driverless vehicles are involved. 📝 What’s Actually Priced Into Tesla Stock? Here’s where this gets existential for Tesla bulls. A huge chunk of Tesla’s market valuation — some would argue most of it — now rests on the idea that it isn’t just a car company. It’s an AI company. A software company. A robotics company. A future robotaxi empire. If those narratives start to weaken, so does the multiple. Tesla remains dominant in EV production and it still benefits from profit margins (about half of the profits coming from selling regulatory credits to other carmakers). But even Musk himself has made clear that Tesla’s long-term valuation depends heavily on successfully delivering robotaxis and humanoid robots. If Sunday’s soft launch is the start of something truly scalable, then maybe the valuation holds up. If it stalls — either due to regulatory hurdles, technological ceilings, or public skepticism — the market may need to reevaluate just how much of Tesla’s price reflects reality versus dreams. 👀 Bottom Line: Revolutionary or Just Another Test Ride? So, should you buy or sell Tesla after its long-awaited robotaxi debut? That depends on how you frame this moment. The bulls see a trillion-dollar industry being born, with Tesla perfectly positioned. The bears see a carefully staged PR event masking how far away true autonomy still is. For now, Tesla gets credit for being bold — even if it’s bold enough to roll out a very small, very managed test. But markets eventually ask: “What’s next?” And unless Tesla can quickly scale from 10 cars in Austin to fully functioning fleets in major cities, a victory lap here could feel a little premature. As always with Tesla: the story is thrilling, the stock is volatile, and the future is still very much under construction. And with its earnings just around the corner — you’re following the earnings calendar , right? — things might just be getting exciting. Off to you : Which side are on? The bullish traders looking to add to their long positions or the bearish sellers who’ve been calling “overvalued” for years? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
17
Will Nike’s Upcoming Earnings ‘Just Do It’ for Investors?This hasn’t been the greatest year for Nike NYSE:NKE , which will report earnings next Thursday at a time when the stock is down more than 20% year to date. What does technical and fundamental analysis say might happen to the stock from here? Let’s take a look: Nike’s Fundamental Analysis NKE ended Wednesday down 21.4% year to date, and last year wasn't so hot for the athletic-gear giant, either. Shares fell 30.3% over 2024 as a whole. In fact, it’s been a tough decade so far for Nike, a one-time Wall Street darling. All in, the stock has fallen some 66.8% since peaking at $179.10 in November 2021. Gross. Things got so bad that former CEO John Donahoe "retired" in October 2024 -- a retirement that the firm’s board graciously “agreed” to. The board then pulled in Nike veteran Elliott Hill, who had retired in 2020 after 32 years with the firm, off of the bench to serve as the company’s new CEO. While it's still early, Hill hasn’t worked much magic so far for the stock, either. Nike shares have struggled since March, when the firm beat analyst expectations for its fiscal Q3 earnings and revenues but provided poorly received forward guidance. As for next week’s fiscal Q4 results, the Street is looking for NKE to report just $0.11 of GAAP earning per share on roughly $10.7 billion of revenue. That would compare badly to the $0.99 of EPS on $12.6 billion of revenues that Nike saw in the same period last year -- an 88.9% decline in earnings per share and about a 15% drop in sales. In fact, of the 23 sell-side analysts that I’ve found that track the stock, 21 have revised their fiscal Q4 earnings estimates lower since the quarter began. Only two have moved their forecasts to the upside. Nike’s Technical Analysis Now let's take a look at NKE’s chart going back some four months: Readers will see that from early April through mid-June, Nike developed a so-called “rising-wedge” pattern of bearish reversal, marked with purple shading and a red box in the chart above. Late last week, shares broke through the wedge’s lower trend line at about $62, which is the pivot point here. Nike also recently gave up its 21-day Exponential Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line above). That’s likely turned some swing traders against the stock for now. The stock will now have to look to its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” denoted above with a blue line) for support. That’s at $59.50 in the chart above, but NKE was trading at $59.51 on Friday afternoon as I wrote this. Should that line crack as well, a certain percentage of portfolio managers would likely have their risk managers force them to reduce long-side exposure to the stock. But interestingly, readers will also note that from Nike’s late-February high to its early April low, shares hit resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of that move twice -- first in mid-May and then again a month later. This typically implies that there are probably institutional sellers at that level. Looking at NKE’s other technical indicators, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) is on the weak side of neutral here. It’s not awful, but it also isn’t positive. Worse, Nike’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with blue bars and black and gold lines at the chart’s bottom) is postured quite bearishly. Within that indicator, the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) stands below zero, while the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). Those are all typically negative technical signals for a stock. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in NKE at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NYSE:NKE
by moomoo
6