Get started

Community ideas

Stocks at Records Ahead of Big Week of Fed & Tech. What to WatchRecord highs, rate-cut optimism, five tech giants on deck — what a time to be a market participant! It’s Monday, and Wall Street is back doing what it does best — setting new records and pretending not to worry about what comes next. After a cooler-than-expected inflation print and some diplomatic smiles from Washington and Beijing, all three major indexes are kicking off the week in full throttle. Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI finally closed north of 47,000 for the first time ever, rising 472 points, or 1%. You know that feeling when you hit every green light on the way to work? That’s what Friday felt like. The S&P 500 SP:SPX climbed 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC gained 1.2%. Together, the trio ended the week at record highs. The spark? September’s Consumer Price Index ECONOMICS:USCPI rose 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% expected. Traders took that as a nod from the economy that the Federal Reserve can keep easing off the monetary brakes. Odds of at least a half-point in rate cuts by year-end jumped to nearly 97%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Soft inflation, strong sentiment, and new highs — *insert feelsgoodman meme.* 🤝 A Trade Truce (For Now) Adding to optimism, US and Chinese negotiators sounded unusually positive over the weekend. The two sides reportedly hammered out a trade framework, setting the stage for President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to meet in South Korea later this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the talks “ought to pave the way” for a broader discussion on tariffs, tech transfers, and everything in between — the kind of vague optimism that markets eat up like comfort food. For now, investors are choosing to focus on the handshake rather than the fine print. After all, in the markets, hope is often more powerful than details. 🏦 The Fed’s Big Moment The main event, however, comes midweek. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR by a quarter point on Wednesday. But the real show starts after the decision, when Jerome Powell takes the mic. Traders will be parsing every word of his press conference for hints on how much further the Fed is willing to go. The tone of his remarks could determine whether markets keep coasting at record highs — or finally take a breather. So far, Powell has managed to thread the needle: easing just enough to keep growth alive without letting inflation flare back up. But with stocks at all-time highs and job data still missing due to the government shutdown, he’s got a tough balancing act. 💻 Big Tech Takes the Stage Anyway, peak earnings season is here and if macro policy is the first act this week, Big Tech earnings are the broader narrative. Five members of the Magnificent Seven — Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Meta NASDAQ:META , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN — will all report their latest results. That’s roughly $12 trillion in combined market cap stepping into the spotlight. After a few solid years of sky-high expectations around AI, cloud, and advertising recovery, investors are craving proof that the hype is translating into actual earnings. The question isn’t whether these companies are still dominant — it’s whether they can keep growing fast enough to justify valuations that have already priced in perfection. Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet kick things off Wednesday, Apple and Amazon step up Thursday. Somewhere between all that, expect social media feeds to explode with charts, hot takes, and the occasional meme about “buying the dip” before it even happens. 🌍 Markets in a Mood It’s one of those rare weeks when every major force — central banks, geopolitics, and tech earnings — converge into a single market narrative. And, by the looks of it, that narrative is leaning bullish. Still, keep an eye out for surprises. Off to you : Where do you think markets are heading this week? Are you excited to snap up some tech shares ahead of the updates or looking to play defense? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
14
BTCUSDT – When the Bullish Wave ReturnsBitcoin is showing a notable recovery phase after a series of previous corrections. On the daily timeframe, price continues to move within an ascending channel that has been forming since the beginning of Q3. Currently, BTC is approaching the midline of the channel around 115,000–116,000 USD , with key support at 106,700 USD and upper resistance near 127,700 USD. If the price retests the 112,000–113,000 USD zone and holds, this could become a perfect “launchpad” for the next bullish move. From a fundamental perspective, expectations of a Fed rate cut and South Korea’s more open stance toward crypto are providing positive momentum for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, signals from the options market and investor sentiment still show some caution, meaning the upward move may be gradual and range-bound rather than explosive. Overall, BTC remains under bullish control , and as long as the price holds above the 106,000–107,000 USD zone, the gradual climb toward 127,000 USD remains the most likely scenario.
Long
by Kairo_Vexen
27
Is Geopolitical Re-Alignment the New AUD Catalyst?The Australian Dollar's (AUD) sharp surge against the US Dollar (USD) is driven by a powerful synergy of geopolitical de-escalation and structural economic realignment. Near-term momentum stems from optimism surrounding an imminent US-China trade deal. As a primary commodity exporter and a financial 'China proxy', Australia's currency benefits directly from reduced Sino-American trade tensions, prompting a global "risk-on" rally that lifted commodity prices and commodity-linked currencies. Simultaneously, softer-than-expected US inflation data has amplified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, weakening the USD by narrowing the interest rate differential in favor of the Aussie. Structurally, the AUD gains foundational strength from a landmark $8.5 billion US-Australia Critical Minerals Agreement. This strategic pact, targeting vital rare-earth elements, aims to secure a Western supply chain for high-tech and defense industries, directly countering China's resource dominance. The joint commitment of over $1 billion in near-term investment into Australian mining and processing facilities introduces significant foreign capital and long-term economic diversification. This geostrategic pivot transforms Australia into a key node in the non-Chinese supply of materials essential for the global clean energy transition and advanced cyber systems, moving the AUD beyond purely cyclical commodity flows. In essence, the $AUD/USD rally is a dual narrative: a cyclical uplift from cooling trade wars and a structural upgrade from a new science and technology alliance with the US. While markets await specific details from the upcoming high-level trade talks and the Federal Reserve's next move, this combination of favorable macroeconomic divergence and a foundational critical minerals investment provides a robust, multi-domain argument for sustained Australian Dollar strength.
Long
by the5erstrading
5
Can WTI’s 8% Rally Hold After Trump-Putin Summit Collapse?WTI just staged its biggest two-day rally since June, as hopes for a Trump-Putin summit were dashed, leading to new US sanctions on Russian oil exports. Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next: - US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers after failed Budapest summit trigger supply fears and spike prices - Trump escalates rhetoric to maintain leverage as Zelensky signs military deals with Sweden, raising geopolitical stakes - WTI reclaims key $61 resistance, with daily RSI momentum signalling room to run and a possible cup & handle breakout toward $68 - Supply glitch fears (India, OPEC’s slow reaction) and technicals all support continued upside if the current environment holds Watch for buy the dip signals, respect $61 support, and target the $65–68 channel top if current drivers persist. Stay tuned! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by ThinkMarkets
9
XAUUSD-seeking $4,000 region?As my H4 chart shows, gold did make a double top a few days ago and then crashed. You can give credit for this massive 3,800 points move to profit taking or economic uncertainty or any technical reason, maybe a combination but it really does not matter. What does matter is that we now have a double or triple top indicating that we have more room to the down side. I am seeing a medium term bearish move followed by a consolidation and now it may be that we will get a breakout (to the down side) to give us a bearish continuation. How far will we go? I have no idea but the round number 4,000 followed by 3,950 do make sense. If all this works out as I anticipate, it may be a good idea to close a partial position, move the stop to a level of small profit and then trail the price action.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by Miracle-Victo
8
BTCUSDT: Bounce from Support Could Ignite Rally Toward $114KHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup. Market Analysis Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has recently transitioned from a bearish phase to a bullish structure after breaking out of a prolonged downward channel. The market had been forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows until it found strong demand in the support zone around 110,000. From there, price began consolidating, indicating that sellers were losing control.A decisive breakout from the channel marked the end of bearish pressure, and since then, BTC has been moving inside a new upward channel, forming higher highs and higher lows — a clear sign of bullish momentum returning. Currently, the price is approaching the resistance zone near 113,600–114,000, which previously acted as a key supply area. The ongoing structure suggests that buyers are attempting to push through this level and confirm a breakout continuation. My Scenario & Strategy In my view, BTC may attempt to retest the local support area near 111,000 before resuming its move higher. A successful bounce from this level would confirm that the new upward channel remains intact and provide a favorable long opportunity targeting the 114,000–115,000 zone. If price breaks and holds above this resistance zone, it will likely open the door for a stronger bullish continuation toward 118,000 and beyond. However, if BTC fails to maintain the channel support, a temporary correction back to the 110,000 area could occur before the next upward impulse. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
17
Here's What Microsoft's Chart Says Heading Into EarningsMicrosoft NASDAQ:MSFT , which will release earnings next week, is beating the S&P 500 SP:SPX year to date -- up 24.4% vs. about 15.7% for the SPX. MSFT has also gained roughly 112% over the past three years, while the S&P 500 has added just 78.9%. What does the company's chart show us ahead of earnings? Let's check things out: Microsoft's Fundamental Analysis Earnings season is about to heat up. With Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX and Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA having reported results this week, the rest of the Mag-7/FAANGs -- Microsoft, Apple (AAPL), Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Meta NASDAQ:META , and Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL -- will release numbers next week. MSFT is set to release Q3 results after the closing bell on Wednesday, with the Street looking for the software giant to report about $3.66 in GAAP earnings per share. (Analyst estimates range from $3.50 to $3.78.) A result like that would compare nicely to the year-ago print of $3.30. Meanwhile, analysts' consensus estimate projects that MSFT will report $75.4 billion in revenue for the period, with individual forecasts ranging from $70.1 billion to $76.6 billion. The consensus projection would be good enough for almost 15% in year-over-year revenue growth, in line with the pace of sales gains that Microsoft has regularly produced over the past few years. All in, 26 of the 32 sell-side analysts I know of that cover Microsoft have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while just three have lowered their forecasts. (Three have made no changes.) Beyond just the quarterly numbers, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will have a lot to talk about on the earnings call -- from deals Microsoft has signed to power data centers to contracts with chip designers and LLM providers. There's just a lot going on right now at Microsoft, from expansion of the firm's AI universe to plans to move a majority of its manufacturing out of Mainland China. A lot of what Nadella says about these things could cause a reaction in MSFT's share price. Microsoft's Technical Analysis Next, let's check out MSFT's chart going back some four months and running through Tuesday afternoon: The first thing you'll see is a cup-with-handle pattern with a $531 pivot, slightly above the $524.65 that Microsoft was trading at Friday afternoon. That's a bullish signal as long MSFT can make a run at the pivot. That's not all I see, though. Check this other four-month chart out: This view shows a closing-pennant pattern for the stock. Now, closing pennants historically tell you that a storm is coming, although as an indicator, they're non-directional. They signal that a violent move is on the way, but can't tell you if it's bullish or bearish. The first chart suggests that such a move will, in fact, be bullish. But these two charts don't work together, so do we trust one or the other? That's the big question. In the meantime, Microsoft has been using both its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line in the first chart) and the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted with a blue line) for guidance lately. This suggests that swing traders have not exited the trade, while portfolio managers have not reduced exposure. That's typically a positive unless the stock loses those lines after next week's earnings report. If that happens, you might have a crowded move to the door. Separately, Microsoft's secondary technical indicators don't offer investors much help at this time. The stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at both charts' tops) is almost perfectly neutral. However, Microsoft's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at both charts' bottoms) is leaning bearish. The histogram of the 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) is negative and has been for almost two weeks. That's usually a short-term bearish sign. Similarly, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is running below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That's also usually bearish technically. In fact, the only bullish thing I see in this indicator is that both the 12- and 26-day lines are still in positive territory. An Options Option Options investors who want to go long on Microsoft while purchasing downside protection might employ a "buy-write" strategy in this scenario. This involves purchasing the stock, then selling a covered call against that equity position. This can reduce net basis (cost), but limits the potential profitability of the investor's Microsoft purchase until the call expires. And the shares could get called away if the short call is assigned. Here's an example of a buy-write on MSFT: -- Purchase 100 shares of MSFT at or close to the $522 the stock was trading at when I wrote this. -- Sell (write) one Oct. 31 call with a $532.50 strike price (the above chart's pivot) for about $9.10. Investors who want some potential downside protection might also buy a put, which can limit losses until the options trade expires. Example: -- Buy one Oct. 31 $512.50 put for roughly $8.40. Investors in this example will have reduced their net basis to $521.30, but will have limited their MSFT stake's potential profitability to 2.2% through the options' Oct. 31 expiration. The trade-off is that these investors will have also capped any losses at 1.7% through expiration as well. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle was long MSFT and TSLA at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. Read the Options Disclosure Document ( j.moomoo.com ) before trading. Options are complex and you may quickly lose the entire investment. Supporting docs for any claims will be furnished upon request. Options trading subject to eligibility requirements. Strategies available will depend on options level approved. Maximum potential loss and profit for options are calculated based on the single leg or an entire multi-leg trade remaining intact until expiration with no option contracts being exercised or assigned. These figures do not account for a portion of a multi-leg strategy being changed or removed or the trader assuming a short or long position in the underlying stock at or before expiration. Therefore, it is possible to lose more than the theoretical max loss of a strategy. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moomoo
8
Market Regimes: What they are and why they matterRegimens, what are they and why they matter? Most traders, especially new ones, don’t understand trading regimens. This is actually normal. Even as a quant based trader with higher education in stats/sciences, I learned of Regimen trading later in my trading career, having successfully navigated trading without it; but insurmountably improving things when I discovered it. What is a regimen you may ask? Is it what’s going on in North Korea? Or even the USA? Chances are, most people may think regime is synonymous with something like fascism or some ultra political significance, but the truth is regime can mean a few things, and I think its important, before getting into the real details, to first understand the meaning of regime. The Meriam-Webster dictionary defines regime as: regular pattern of occurrence or action (as of seasonal rainfall) the characteristic behavior or orderly procedure of a natural phenomenon or process mode of rule or management a government in power a form of government a government in power a period of rule If you were to do a grad school ‘ concept analysis’ on regime, you would get some interesting findings of regime. Essentially, all of these definitions have a significance/underlying overlap in meaning. The simplified meaning? I would say (without having done an actual concept analysis), a regime is a “pattern of behaviour / rules / government that forms repeating characteristics that can be measured and predicted against its previous characteristics”. Still too complex? Let’s simplify with both political and scientific examples. Political In the current presidency in the U.S., the Republican party was swift to implement sweeping tariffs against international trade partners, blanketing entire continents in a matter of days with tariffs. These were then paused, resumed, paused, resumed, lowered, raised, lowered, raised, paused, resumed, revoked, resumed, lowered, raised, etc. Under the current political regime, we can identify the behaviour of “tariff implementation”. From previous tariff implementation and revocation and adjustment, we have the characteristics of this regime. We can then use these characteristics to predict future outcomes under this regime, i.e. we would hypothesize “Tariffs will be paused within the coming 2 months”. We can say this because this is a characteristic of the current regime. In fact, the term TACO is a perfect example of repeating regime characteristics! What about a scientific example? Well we can draw on Meriam-Webster making reference to seasonal rainfall. In climatology, a " rainfall regime " refers to the characteristic pattern of precipitation over a region during the year—especially its timing, intensity, and variability across seasons. Identifying these regimes are pivotal to forecasting future meteorological and climatological events! What about my field? Epidemiology and Biostatistics? In Epi, we have multiple different regimes, such as: Treatment Regime: A prescribed course of medical therapy, such as a drug regimen for tuberculosis or chemotherapy for cancer. It includes dosage, timing, and duration. Vaccination Regime: A schedule of immunizations designed to prevent disease outbreaks—e.g., two-dose mRNA COVID-19 vaccine regime followed by boosters. Control Regime: A set of public health policies or containment strategies—like quarantine protocols, mask mandates, or vector control in malaria-endemic areas. Surveillance Regime: The systematic collection and analysis of health data to monitor disease trends—e.g., wastewater surveillance for poliovirus or syndromic surveillance for flu-like illness. These all matter because these regimes dictate future characteristics/outcomes. Great! Now that you have an idea of what a regime means, let’s talk about regimes in trading. If you haven’t already guessed, there obviously exists “ market regime s”. These are, more or less, defined as “a distinct period characterized by specific patterns in market behavior—such as trends, volatility, and macroeconomic conditions—that influence investment strategies and risk management. ” If you look back to our examples, you can begin to imagine why regimes matter. Remember, TACO! Previous behaviour dictates future characteristics. Once you understand the way or median in which some phenomena operates, you can use these characteristics to predict future characteristics. If you wanted to dissect market regimes, it could get relatively involved and complex. For example, things such as: Seasonality, Momentum, Mean Reversion, Financial / economic stability Geopolitical stability These can all influence market regimes in their own way and can, in fact, be standalone market regimes. If you trade seasonality, you are trading “ seasonal regimes ”. Momentum and Mean reversion are independent regimes of themselves (more on that shortly). If you trade fundamentals, you will be trading economic and geopolitical regimes. But which is correct? Not all regimes can exist at the same time, correct? Yes and no! Regimes can momentarily shift and flip into a different one. Take, for example, the U.S. implementation of Tariff’s at the beginning of 2025. The initial blanket tariffs caused a mean reversion regime fueled by financial/economic and geopolitical stability. We had 3 regimes working together for the result, which was ultimately a mean reversion. This quickly shifted from a mean reversion regime to a momentum based regime (more on this shortly). So, yes, we can, theoretically, have more than one regime simultaneously. However, when it comes to markets, and this is where you are in luck, its actually pretty easy! Markets tend to be either: Mean reverting; or Momentum based. And that’s really that. Those are the only 2 regimes you will ever truly need to pay attention to, which will give you a better edge at trading. Seasonality, financial and geopolitical stability will either augment mean reversion or momentum, but generally are not independent regimes in and of themselves. In the end, markets either go up, down or sideways. It can be driven by broader contexts, but in the end the up/down/sideways is driven by a predominate regimen; Down markets: usually mean reverting. Up markets: usually momentum. Sideways markets: usually mean reverting with occasional momentum deviations. If you want to learn more about the evolution of the market, you can check out my post about how the market has evolved into its current regime here: Now, let the real fun begin and let’s talk about how to correctly trade based on the current regime! There are some steps, first one must: Identify the current regime concretely. Apply the correct strategies that are compatible with the current regime. Understand the momentum, mean reversion paradox I will walk you through how to do this step by step. Identifying the Current Regime Concretely The easiest way to identify the current regime is by using Hurst Exponent. The Hurst exponent is a number between 0 and 1 that tells you how predictable a time series is—like stock prices or rainfall. If it's close to 0, the data is very random and tends to switch directions often. If it's around 0.5, the data behaves like a random walk—no clear trend. If it's close to 1, the data shows strong trends and tends to keep moving in the same direction. So, it helps you measure persistence vs. randomness in patterns over time. The closer to 1 the more “persistent” the market is said to be. Persistence is basically the math equivalent of momentum. If a market is persistent, it will tend to trend with momentum. The closer to 0 the more random the market is said to be . Randomness usually favours “mean reversion” For simplicity, if you get a Hurst Exponent > 0.5, you are likely in a momentum regime. If < 0.5, you are likely in a mean reversion regime. Let’s take a look at some examples using QuantNomad’s Hurt Exponent indicator ( available here ): This is just before the crash in February 2025. We can see that up here, the Hurst Exponent was < 0.5, indicating a mean reversion preference. And indeed, the market ended up mean reverting back to its quadratic mean (481) with the crash. Then let’s see what happened: After the crash, we can see that the Hurst Exponent was consistently > 0.5, indicating persistence in the market, i.e. trendy and momentum based. Remember, as a rule of thumb, momentum markets generally faour upside and mean reverting tend to be downside favouring. If we narrow the regime to smaller timeframe regimes, you can see this phenomenon quite easily. Let’s look at SPY on a bearish day and bullish day against the Hurst Exponent: We can see that on this bull trend day, Momentum and persistence reigned dominate. Hurst did not drop below 0.5, at least not for long, which indicated a persistent trend that was momentum driven. Now a bearish day: You can see on this bear trend day that Hurst stayed below 0.5 persistently, indicating mean reverting behaviour. This also highlights how lower timeframes can have independent and day to day regimes, but its always important and critical to pay attention to the major regime a market is in on the larger timeframe. Applying Correct Strategies Depending on the regime, you MUST tailor your strategy to match the regime. If you are trading a mean reverting regime, oscillators like RSI and Stochastics aren’t going to work well. If you are trading a momentum regime with high persistence, mean reverting strategies like Bollinger Bands and Z-Score are not going to work. As a rule of thumb, when Hurst is > 0.5, you want oscillator based strategies such as RSI, Stochastics, etc. One indicator that I would recommend in momentum based regimes is my own, Momentum Probability Oscillator indicator ( available here ). This indicator operationalizes probability/sentiment through momentum metrics instead of mean reversion metrics. Let’s take a look at some examples: In this example on the hourly timeframe for SPY, you can see that momentum is lost (signified by the oscillator falling below the yellow line) indicating that the likely outcome will be selling, this is shown by the pink arrows. In this next example, we can see where momentum is reclaimed and the bias shifts to upside. Because this indicator quantifies momentum probabilistically, it does well in momentum based, persistent regimes to identify strong trends and pullback of trends. In reality, you can use any oscillator in a momentum based, persistent regime, but obviously I am biased to my own creations. What about a mean reverting regimen? If we are in a mean reverting regime, your best indicators to use are Bollinger Bands or, my favourite, the Z-Score probability indicator (by yours truly) available here . Let’s use $NYSE:IRDM as our mean reverting example In this image, the red arrow marks the transition to a mean reverting regime. So what do we use here? Well let’s take a look at the Z-Score probability indicator: The red lines mark the transition to a mean reversion based regime. At the time of this transition, IRDM was oversold based on the Z-Score probability. We can see it in fact rallied back up to a z-score of 0 (mean reversion) before rejecting back down from the 0. This is incredibly powerful, as the Hurst Exponent tells you that you can trust a reversion back to a mean! Let’s try a smaller, intraday example, going back to SPY: This day, SPY looked pretty bullish; however, the Hurst Exponent was consistently below 0.5 indicating mean reversion. If we applied the Z-Score probability indicator: I flipped the indicator to use Candles so you can more easily see the mean reversion behaviour. SPY goes to either extremes and always mean reverts back to 0, at times even consolidating in the mean reversion range. And Bollinger bands: If we look at a momentum driven day: We can see that there is a skew or bias to one side of the average. The z-score is all over the map with no real expansion within the average range and infrequent and sporadic reversions that come more from extensive consolidation rather than actual mean reversion. The indicator isn’t unusable in momentum based trading, but its not ideal. If we flip this same chart to the momentum probability oscillator we can see a stark difference in utility: You can see the trend is using the full range of the oscillator and there is clear bounces at lower range and rejections at higher range with frequent “mean reversion” of the oscillator momentum based mean. Now finally, the last section: The Momentum Mean Reversion Paradox This is, obviously, a self made up term. However, this is a phenomenon that will happen in corrective environments, where a mean reversion is so substantial, it becomes augmented by momentum itself. What does this mean? It means that, despite the market actually mean reverting, the Hurst exponent flips to > 0.5, as the market is “persistently bearish”. We can see this if we flip back to our $NYSE:IRDM example: Here, we can see despite IRDM selling, the Hurst Exponent is incredibly trendy, with a really high value of > 0.55. Yet, despite this, the ticker continues down. This is the hallmark of a correction. This is incredibly important and I really would advise you to mark this down and remember this. You can actually tell that something is “correcting” using this exact approach. When Hurst > 0.5 and the trend is down, this is the hallmark of a TRUE correction. No speculation needed! Statistics is the best, I’m telling you. Let’s look at the SPY crash of 2025: During the SPY crash of 2025, the Hurst flipped to > 0.5, with a max of 0.57 indicating a hugely persistent trend. This means that this was a strong correction for SPY, flipping from a Hurst of < 0.5 to a Hurst of > 0.5 with a strong downtrend. Crashes tend to happen abruptly without such transitions. For example, if we look at the COVID crash: Theoretically Hurst warned us in advance that SPY was entering mean reversion territory, but when it actually happened, it happened so fast, Hurst never truly converted from mean reversion to trending. It was just a jumbled mess. This is the hallmark of a crash. Concluding Remarks And now, my friends, you know all there is to know about how to identify market regimes! Understanding these concepts will put your eons ahead of the average trader and allow you to select the correct tools and actually understand what the market is doing and when its gearing up for some corrections/mean reversions. This is a long post, I will leave it there, but I really hope you learned something from this and will take some of the key points away! Thanks for reading and as always, safe trades!
SP:SPXEducation
by Steversteves
12
Tesla Stock Wobbles as Profit Dives 37%, Revenue Pops. Now What?Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA posted a 12% jump in revenue on Wednesday, reaching $28.1 billion, well above Wall Street’s $26.37 billion estimate. And yet, the stock slipped nearly 1% on the day before paring back that loss with a 2.3% Thursday gain. Why? Because profits fell faster than Cybertruck’s reputation — a 37% plunge year over year, with adjusted earnings per share at 50 cents versus the expected 54 cents. It’s a classic Tesla paradox: sales are booming, but margins are thinning, and Wall Street can’t decide whether to cheer the top line or cry over the bottom one. 🏎️ The Cost of Staying in the Fast Lane Tesla’s secret sauce has always been scale — crank out more cars, dominate market share, and let profits follow. But this quarter, the recipe’s a bit off. Automotive revenue rose 6% to $21.2 billion, yet net income plunged to $1.37 billion from $2.17 billion a year earlier . What happened? Price cuts. Lots of them. Musk has been slashing sticker prices across markets to stay ahead in the EV race — great for consumers, painful for margins. Add a 50% spike in operating expenses (thanks, humanoid robots and AI labs), and suddenly that sleek electric machine looks a lot less money-making. Still, Tesla’s revenue growth means one thing: demand isn’t dead. The EV slowdown hasn’t reached Palo Alto yet. 💰 Bitcoin Bounces In a crypto-centric subplot, the company made $62 million from its Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD stash last quarter. The crypto’s 5% rise — ending the quarter around $114,000 — gave Tesla’s treasury a nice digital cushion. The company held roughly 11,000 Bitcoins during the three months through September. 🧠 The $1 Trillion Question And then there’s the other storyline — the Elon Musk Show. Musk wrapped up the earnings call by pivoting from profits to power. Specifically, his proposed $1 trillion pay package , which he insists isn’t “compensation” at all but a question of “control.” “I just don’t feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis,” Musk quipped, slamming the proxy firms as “corporate terrorists.” His plan is to secure roughly mid-20s voting power to keep Tesla’s destiny firmly in his hands while still, as he puts it, being “fireable if I go insane.” If approved, Musk’s stake could surge from 13% to nearly 29%, giving him the leverage he says he needs to push Tesla toward an $8.5 trillion valuation — complete with robotaxis, humanoid bots, and up to 12 million cars sold annually. 🧾 The Takeaway The stock is up roughly 16% in 2025, clawing back some early-year losses, but it still lags the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC and other mega-cap peers like Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Meta $META. The near-term question is simple: can Tesla tighten costs without killing growth? The long-term one is bigger: can Elon Musk lead the company into its next chapter without turning every quarter into a cliffhanger? That said, the earnings season continues and the next batch of big tech heavyweights is right around the corner. Off to you : What’s your take on Tesla and Musk’s lofty vision north of $1 trillion? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
26
Gold 1979 vs 2025 — When History Whispers and Markets Listen 🌕 1. The Echo of 1979 In 1979, the world watched Gold do the impossible. The metal surged from $226 to over $850 per ounce in less than a year, a 275% explosion that turned fear into fortune. The triggers were seismic. 🇮🇷 The Iranian Revolution disrupted global oil flows. 🏛️ The U.S. Embassy hostage crisis fueled geopolitical panic. ⚔️ The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan reignited Cold War fears. 💸 And double-digit inflation in the U.S. shredded faith in the dollar. By early 1980, panic replaced logic. Every newspaper screamed, “Buy Gold before it’s too late!” Then came Paul Volcker’s shock therapy as interest rates jumped above 15% and COMEX doubled margin requirements. Within eight weeks, Gold fell more than 40%, marking the end of one of the most dramatic speculative manias in modern history. 🔁 2. Fast-Forward to 2025: The Parallels Are Uncanny The world of 2025 looks hauntingly similar. 🕰️ 1979 🔮 2025 Iranian Revolution and Cold War tensions Gaza war, U.S.–China decoupling, and regional instability Oil shock and inflation Energy disruptions and persistent post-pandemic inflation Dollar under pressure Record U.S. debt and fiscal erosion Panic buying of Gold Central bank accumulation and retail FOMO Fed under Volcker turns hawkish Fed under Powell trapped between cuts and control By late August 2025, gold sat quietly near $3,415, then erupted into a seven-week vertical rally above $4,300, a mirror image of 1979’s euphoric climb. But just like back then, euphoria was the prelude to exhaustion. ⚠️ 3. The Anatomy of the Current Crash On October 17, 2025, Gold plunged $250 in one day, a shocking 5–6% drop that broke its parabolic structure and sent fear rippling across markets. What triggered it? 🏦 A hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve’s language as officials hinted rate cuts might be delayed. 💰 Real yields surged, breaking the inverse correlation that had fueled gold’s climb. 🏛️ Institutional profit-taking hit record levels, confirmed by rising COMEX open interest and volume. 🗞️ Sentiment flipped overnight as headlines shifted from “Gold to $5000” to “Gold crashes $250.” The move marked the first true break of structure (CHoCH) since the rally began, historically the signal that smart money is quietly exiting. 🔍 4. Lessons from 1980 — The Signs of a Top Before gold crashed in 1980, five clear warning signs appeared. ⚙️ 1979–1980 Signal 💡 2025 Equivalent 🧭 Status Fed turns hawkish Powell signals “pause / higher for longer” ⚠️ Emerging Rising bond yields vs. flat Gold Real yield divergence ✅ Confirmed Parabolic candles Daily range above $100 ✅ Seen Media frenzy “Gold to $5000” hype ✅ Seen Margin hikes and record OI Record COMEX participation ⚠️ Rising Four out of five signals are already flashing. History teaches that when everyone believes Gold can only rise, it’s often about to fall. 🧭 5. What Smart Traders Should Do Now 🟡 Phase 1 – Immediate Protection (Next 24 Hours) If you’re long, secure 50–75% of gains and protect above $3,950. If you’re short, trail stops to $4,200 and look for targets at $3,950 → $3,800 → $3,600. If you’re flat, stay patient and wait for at least two daily candles of stabilization before acting. 🟠 Phase 2 – Stabilization (Next 3–5 Days) Watch for: 🕯️ Long lower wicks on daily candles show buyer absorption. 📉 Shrinking COMEX volume indicates exhaustion of sellers. 📊 Flat or falling real yields confirming support. 🔵 Phase 3 – Re-evaluation (Next 1–2 Weeks) If gold reclaims $4,000+ with strength and Fed tone softens, a controlled re-rally may begin. If Gold stays below $3,800, the correction likely extends toward $3,500, the same 30–40% retracement seen in 1980. 🧘‍♀️ 6. Beyond the Chart — Discipline Over Drama When a $250 candle appears, instincts scream, “Do something!” But professionals know the truth: reaction destroys capital, observation preserves it. The coming days are not about prediction but about posture. Stay liquid, track sentiment, watch real yields, and remember that even in 1980, Gold’s crash didn’t end its story — it simply reset the cycle for the next era of accumulation. ✨ History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. In 1979, Gold taught us that fear creates bubbles. In 2025, it’s reminding us that even truth needs a pullback before it shines again. If this article helped you today and brought you more clarity: Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more trading ideas and trading psychology. Thank you.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
72
Beyond Meat Posts Best Day Ever, Up 147%: Return of the Meme?🔥 A Sizzling Comeback or Just Froth? Beyond Meat NASDAQ:BYND , once the darling of the plant-based revolution and later the focus of every “overcooked IPO” joke, just got on everyone’s radar: a 147% single-day surge, its best performance ever. For a company that was trading at just 65 cents last week — and a 50-cent all-time low — Tuesday’s rally was a surprise to many, especially those that were short the shares. The stock is now sizzling around $3.60, and retail traders everywhere are asking the same question: Is the meme trade back on the menu? 📈 The Rally Nobody Ordered This all started when Roundhill Investments — the folks who run the Roundhill Meme ETF AMEX:MEME — decided to toss Beyond Meat into their thematic mix. Within hours, a retail stampede was underway. Monday saw a 127% jump, and Tuesday piled on another 146%. Over the past three trading days, the stock is up a whopping 600%. It’s not about earnings reports or something that popped out of the economic calendar . It’s about a short squeeze. With more than 63% of Beyond’s float sold short, bearish investors were caught in a panicked scramble to buy back shares before the fire spread. In meme stock lingo, this was déjà vu — the same cocktail of FOMO, leverage, and chaos that made GameStop NYSE:GME and AMC NYSE:AMC household names. What’s more, a Walmart deal announced on Monday expanded Beyond Meat’s distribution across US stores. 🔍 The Irony of the “Beyond” Narrative The irony here is almost poetic. Beyond Meat went public in 2019 as a symbol of disruption — the future of food, sustainability, and innovation. It hit $230 per share, a valuation that made traditional meat producers look like legacy players. Then came reality. Demand cooled, competition heated up, and costs chewed through margins. By 2024, the stock was less “Beyond” and more behind. Losses piled up for five straight years. Now, it’s back in the spotlight, not for reinventing dinner, but for rekindling nostalgia — the 2021 meme stock era, where logic left the room and retail traders partied all day and night. 🚨 Caution: Hot Grease Ahead The stock was up another 50% in pre-market deals Wednesday, but before you mortgage your house to “ape in,” keep in mind this could end badly, fast. The fundamentals haven’t changed. Beyond still faces declining revenue, debt issues, and a shrinking market for plant-based meat substitutes. If you’re trading this, understand you’re surfing a wave built on emotion and short covering — not sustainable growth. When the wave breaks, it’ll break fast. 🪙 The Meme Lives On (But So Does Gravity) So, is this the second coming of the meme stock era? Maybe. Or maybe it’s just a nostalgic encore — the kind where everyone sings along even though they know how it ends. Off to you : What do you think? Are we back in the meme stock craze or is this about to fizzle out as quickly as it popped up? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:BYND
by TradingView
11
My Plan To Improve My Win/Loss Ratio In Forex TradingThe trading plan that I have been designing based on SMC was amazingly beautful in terms of its mechanics. Yet, it had a terrible Win/Loss ratio. Because I loved its mechanics, I didn't want to drop it all together, and was looking for ways to enhance it. I tried to merge it with the classical school and with some Volume indicator, but things still went south. Finally, I came by some educational material that showed me a couple of things on using Stochastic. I loved it, and this will be my addition, and what I will test in the coming week. My plan will include the same SMC rules, and the Stochastic. I will draw the support and resistance zones and maybe trendlines. I will be using the daily timeframe on two different sets of settings for the stochastic, one is long term and another is shorter term. I will be coming back with my test results next week.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
9
Turning $1,000 Into $10K (and Sometimes $0): The Leverage LessonEvery trader remembers their first brush with leverage — that magical moment when a modest account suddenly feels like a hedge fund. You deposit $1,000, pop open TradingView, find your broker of choice , and boom — your buying power jumps to $30,000. You feel unstoppable as you imagine all the profits waiting for you out there. And for a few moments, it works. A 1% move in your favor turns into a 30% gain. You start browsing for a new watch and a place in downtown Lisbon. But as every bruised and battered trader learns, leverage giveth and leverage obliterateth . That same 1% move against you? Game over. Leverage is the financial equivalent of a sports car: thrilling, powerful, and incredibly dangerous in the wrong hands. Which, let’s be honest, most of us have been at some point. If you take away anything from this piece, let it be this: if you wipe out 50% of your account, say, go from $1,000 to $500, it will take a 100% gain for you to get back even. 🧨 The Math That Makes (and Breaks) You What exactly is leverage and what does it do? Leverage simply means you’re borrowing money to amplify your position size. A 1:10 ratio gives you control over $10,000 with just $1,000 of your own capital. The catch? You’re still responsible for all of it — the profits and the losses. Here’s a general example: • $1,000 with 1:10 leverage = $10,000 position. • The market moves +1% = $100 profit. Nice. • The market moves -1% = $100 loss. Manageable. • The market moves -10%? That’s your entire $1,000 gone. Margin call city. The higher your leverage, the narrower your margin for error. One bad candle, one unexpected news release , one mistimed coffee break when you’ve just loaded up ( during earnings , for example) and your performance can become a case study in volatility. 🧠 The Psychology of “More” Here’s where it gets interesting: most traders don’t blow up their accounts because they misunderstand leverage — they blow up because they only think about the upside, how much they can make. Leverage feeds every dangerous trading instinct: impatience, overconfidence, revenge trading, FOMO. “Next time we go bigger. Double down. We can make it back.” It makes rational risk management feel boring — and boredom, especially for a new trader, is unbearable. Successful traders learn to see leverage for what it is: a tool, not a ticket. They understand that doubling down rarely doubles results, and that a steady pace — not speed — is the name of the game. 💡 The Smart Way to Use Leverage So how do you wield this double-edged sword without losing a hand? • Start small . New traders shouldn’t touch anything above 1:10 until they’ve mastered consistency. Even pros rarely use their full leverage. And in the rare instances where they do, it usually ends up with a blowup. If you’d like to read up on the topic, Archegos Capital and LTCM are a good place to start. • Use stop-losses religiously . A good stop-loss isn’t weakness; it’s insurance. • Don’t equate margin with opportunity . Just because you can open a $50,000 position doesn’t mean you should. • Think in percentages, not dollars . Most experienced traders aim to risk no more than 1–3% of their total equity per trade. • Treat leverage like caffeine . A little sharpens focus. Too much and your hands start shaking and you lose sleep. Leverage done right is a powerful tool that can help you get to your goals faster, smarter, and with fewer trades. But it can turn against you if you let it. 🪞 The Moral of the Margin Story Leverage doesn’t make you a better trader. It makes your habits louder. If you trade emotionally, it amplifies your mistakes. If you trade methodically, it amplifies your discipline. So yes, leverage can turn $1,000 into $10K — or into an expensive lesson in risk management. The deciding factor isn’t the multiplier on your screen; it’s the mindset behind your mouse. In the end, trading is less about flexing your buying power and more about staying long enough to use it wisely. Stay sharp, stay humble. Off to you : What leverage do you usually use? Do you prefer to go 1:30 into forex or 1:10 into equities? Share your approach in the comments!
Education
by TradingView
32
Gold Analysis: Break Above $4,293 Could Trigger a New HighHi guys! Gold has been moving inside a clear ascending channel, respecting both its upper and lower boundaries. Recently, we saw a double top formation near the upper trendline , which triggered a corrective move down to the $4,190–$4,200 support zone, an area that has already shown strong buying interest. After the rebound from this support, the price is now aiming toward the $4,293 resistance. 👉 If the price breaks and holds above $4,293 , it’s likely to continue the bullish momentum and head toward a new higher high inside the channel. Overall, the structure remains bullish as long as the price stays above $4,190 , with the next key resistance at $4,293 being the level to watch for a potential continuation of the uptrend. Gold’s bullish bias remains supported by the ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global interest rate paths, and softening U.S. dollar. Investors are also increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, especially amid concerns about economic slowdown and central bank gold purchases remaining strong. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
36
Moment of Fate - BTC Analysis (3D)There are many reasons to go up but also going down is starting to look way more charming than ever right now. Let's examine what we have; -FED is about to cut rates for a second time but we'll most likely to see another rate cut in december which is bullish af. -All companies are keeping buying Bitcoin more and more which is kinda good but might be a problem for decentrlation of Bitcoin. -US is more likely to bring more regulations about stablecoins which will effect positivly Bitcoin. On the other hand; -China and US are still faceing a trade war even if they state othervise. -ETF's are not buying Bitcoin as much as they did last year. -US and Venezuela might have a conflit very soon. -Israel-Hamas and Russo-Ukraine wars hasn't actually over yet. -Gold is going on god mode. -DXY is trying to recover in weekly timeframe but is less likely due to rate cuts. -Elliot wave theory tells us that we might actually be in the A-B-C correction cycle. -Volume is decreasing, which is bad and supports the Elliot waves. - Trendline support is about to be lost (Tried to break it twice in a week). -There is a CME gap left around $92K Well, all we have to do is, combining the factors. If BTC breaks below the supportive trendline we will most likely drop through demand zone which is highlited in the chart. If US and China makes peace (less likely), Bitcoin actually has real reasons to try a new all time high. The main point is simple: Wait for one of two things to happen: Either the trendline will be broken and we'll see below the $100K, which will give us new opportuinites. Or, Bitcoin recovers $118400 and the entire bearish senario would be invalidated and Bitcoin goes like crayz again. Thank you for reading.
by vs_sayin
23
PALLADIUM - Short Setup, Bearish Rotation In MetalsA very bearish setup is developing: Since the top, there is nowhere on the chart that has a whipsawing candle like this: A very big Shooting Star! This setup has my favourite conditions met: - Whipsawing candle that sweeps liquidity through key resistance (2021) - Tidy 1.618 Golden Window (1.618 - 1.786) - taking extremity pivots of Accumulation to draw the fib trendline. Palladium has quite weak price action overall comparing to other metals and this very bearish whipsaw might be a signal for the overall metals market that we're passing through a major pivot. This is also considering that SILVER may have topped at my 1.618 target @ $54: And GOLD may perhaps also have topped after hitting the ultra long term 2.272 (image below is a previous thread I made - click to enter): In addition news arrives that "Gold price pulls back from record as Trump eases trade concerns" - www.mining.com Interesting isn't it how this type of news arrives exactly as GOLD, SILVER and PALLADIUM all hit hit respective Phi ratio landmarks / significant resistances ! ... Palladium may chop, however it often dumps hard when it swings bearish - I doubt it can take out this candle wick high - and even if it did then it would still be very bearish. The candle closes in a few hours. And from here there is a possibility that this might be the next wave down, though I won't hold anywhere near that long. In summary, we have multiple signals from Gold, Silver, Palladium and Trump tariff news that metals may be topping / hitting a significant peak. I entered a short position here. This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consider that crypto is a dangerous market.
TVC:PALLADIUMShort
by dRends35
10
Tech Earnings Preview: What, Who, When and How Much Money Again?“ I don’t know, probably at least around $600 gazillion dollars ,” Zuck, probably if you asked him how much Meta NASDAQ:META will spend over the fiscal year. It’s earnings season , which means Wall Street’s most expensive hobby — guessing how much the tech giants will make while pretending it’s about “long-term fundamentals” — is back in full swing. 💥 Welcome to Earnings Season Happy third-quarter earnings, everyone. The candles are lit, the spreadsheets are out, and $1.6 trillion vanished from US stock valuations last Friday. Perfect timing. Markets are reeling from tariff shocks and macro jitters, but traders have already shifted their gaze to the next big thing: Big Tech . As is tradition, the Magnificent Seven — those trillion-dollar titans who make up roughly one-third of the S&P 500’s SP:SPX weight — are once again the main characters in this quarterly drama. You’ve got AI. You’ve got spending. And you’ve got spending on AI. 🔔 Here We Go Again This quarter, the storyline hasn’t changed much — it’s still “show me the money” season for artificial intelligence. Investors have spent the better part of two years rewarding CEOs for throwing the AI acronym in all their earnings calls. Is this time different? • Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN reports the week of October 21, with everyone eyeing AWS — the quiet moneymaker funding Jeff Bezos’ rocket ambitions and your Prime Day discounts. • Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , and Meta NASDAQ:META follow around October 29. Investors will be laser-focused on who’s turning AI hype into product and revenue. • And let’s not forget Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , which already set the tone with a capex number that could fund a small country — $85 billion in 2025 alone , largely for AI infrastructure. The question now: how much longer can these companies throw billions at Jensen Huang GPUs before shareholders start asking for a receipt? 🏗️ The AI Arms Race: Spending as a Strategy The Magnificent Seven are still in an all-out hardware and data-center build-out. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg is burning through cash to create the metaverse (yes, that still exists), but this time, powered by AI. Nearly every megacap tech firm is building power plants to feed OpenAI. And Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA — the company selling shovels in the AI gold rush — is counting every dollar. Together, these firms are expected to spend hundreds of billions in the second half of 2025 just on computing power. Investors will be parsing every line of guidance for capex updates — because right now, spending is the strategy. But the logic is sound (for now): If AI really does drive the next wave of productivity and profit, then whoever builds the infrastructure owns the future. 📊 The Numbers Game: What Wall Street Expects Across the S&P 500 SP:SPX , earnings are projected to grow 8.8% year-over-year this quarter, on revenue growth of 6.4%, according to Seaport Research Partners. That may sound modest, but it’s for a reason: two-thirds of companies usually beat estimates. Keep them achievable, and markets will celebrate. Pin them too high, and markets will be disappointed. What’s more, earnings aren’t expected to stall anytime soon. FactSet data shows analysts projecting: • 6.4% average annual sales growth for the S&P 500 through 2027 • 14% average annual earnings growth over the same period That’s what rate cuts are supposed to do — a little liquidity trick, some risk-on mood, and suddenly even industrials and Buffett’s picks start looking interesting again. Still, there’s one elephant in the room: valuation. The S&P 500 trades at 23 times forward earnings, which is, to use the technical term, “a lot.” At that level, even a small earnings miss could send stocks tumbling. 🧮 Winners, Losers, and the Market’s Short Memory Some IPOs may have stolen headlines this year — looking at you, Figma NYSE:FIG and Circle NYSE:CRCL — but earnings season is where the real judgment happens. A good report can add hundreds of billions in market cap overnight. But a bad one can do the same in the opposite direction . Meta is under pressure to prove its huge spending on Superintelligence Labs is actually worth it. Apple’s got to show iPhone sales didn’t flatline in China. And Microsoft? Well, all it has to do is keep being Microsoft. Amazon remains the dark horse. Its cloud business is stabilizing, retail’s humming along, and AI integration is just starting to take off. Traders are betting AWS will deliver, as it usually does. 🧘‍♂️ What Traders Should Watch To navigate this volatility buffet, focus on: • Forward guidance — Companies might beat earnings but guide lower, which can trigger pullbacks. • Capex updates — Follow where the AI billions are flowing. • Market reactions, not just results — The “sell the news” trade is real. Sometimes the earnings game isn’t just about who made money — it’s about who surprised the market. 💡 Final Thought: Hype or Habit? Big Tech’s gravitational pull on the markets isn’t fading anytime soon. Whether you’re bullish on AI or skeptical of its trillion-dollar promises, one thing’s certain — every move these companies make will ripple through every portfolio, index, and ETF on the planet. As Q3 earnings hit full throttle, keep one eye on the charts and the other on the headlines . Because if there’s one thing Wall Street loves more than good earnings, it’s the story that comes after. Off to you : How are you preparing to navigate the earnings season and the tech updates? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TradingView
9
Back to Basics: How to Calculate Pips on Forex Pairs📌 Back to Basics: How to Calculate Pips on Forex Pairs 💱📊 Every Forex trader needs to understand pips—it’s the foundation of measuring movement in currency pairs. ✅ On most pairs, 1 pip = the 4th decimal place (0.0001). ✅ On JPY pairs, 1 pip = the 2nd decimal place (0.01). In this quick video, I’ll break down exactly how to find the pip, how to count them, and how to use them when setting your entry and take-profit (TP) levels. Perfect for beginners or anyone who wants a simple refresher! ✨ Trading made simple. 👉 Watch now and build your Forex foundation the right way. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading carries risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Education
by BFST
9
GameStop and Fibonacci: It's About TimeThis is my first attempt at publishing a video on TradingView, so hopefully it works. I wanted to put together something educational about fib channels and why I like to use them. They're not a silver bullet, but they do tell you a lot about where to expect support and resistance because the chart has a very good memory, and you can see this play out on pretty much any instrument, including cryptocurrencies. I follow NYSE:GME closer than any other ticker, so this video is about my philosophy on the fib channels that I have been using on the GME chart and talking about on the Echo Chamber Podcast. Hopefully this adds a little more context to that discussion, how the flat price levels are not always the only thing that matters, but taking time-based trends into account can make a big difference in your analysis and understanding of price movement. Happy to hear people's thoughts on my crayons 🖍️ which color should I eat next? Since this is a bit of a longer video, here's an AI summary of the content with timestamps: Introduction 00:00-01:05 I introduce the topic of explaining my TradingView chart, which has many colorful lines. I clarify that I didn't manually draw all the lines, but used Fibonacci channels that only require selecting 3 points. Explaining Current Chart 01:05-04:33 I show my current GameStop chart, explaining various trend lines and Fibonacci channels. I demonstrate how to adjust the Fibonacci channel points to analyze different price movements. Fresh Chart Walkthrough 04:33-11:57 Moving to a clean chart, I explain global chart items, including trend lines from major tops and bottoms. I discuss dividend-adjusted vs non-adjusted charts and explain the "Gandalf line" of support. Fibonacci Channels Explanation 11:57-24:54 I provide a detailed explanation of how Fibonacci channels work, demonstrating how to draw them and interpret the resulting lines. I show how these channels can describe price action across long time periods. Additional Examples 24:54-33:44 I show more examples of Fibonacci channels applied to GameStop's entire price history. I discuss how these channels can provide insight into potential future price movements and support/resistance levels. Conclusion 33:44-34:40 I summarize my thoughts on GameStop's current price action in relation to the Fibonacci channels and support levels identified. Some Quotes "I find them mathematically interesting." 11:54 - Referring to trend-based Fibonacci tools. "Math is your friend here. But you don't have to do the math, you just can use tools that will help you." 17:19 "Price is fractal in nature in that patterns are repeating and Fibonacci is everywhere." 17:19 "Things like history repeats itself. It's just a question of when, not if." 24:30 "The point I want to drive home here is that when we start to get a little bit more granular here, and this is why I have lots of crayons on my chart." 28:34 Key Tips/Concepts Fibonacci channels can be powerful tools for technical analysis, providing insight into potential support and resistance levels. These channels can sometimes describe price action across very long time periods, even when drawn based on recent price movements with thoughtfully selected endpoints. The importance of considering price, time, and volume in technical analysis, as demonstrated by the "Gandalf line". The value of using multiple timeframes and chart types (dividend-adjusted vs non-adjusted, trading hours only vs extended hours included) to gain a more complete picture of a stock's price history. (Editorial note: something I didn't cover in the video, but the difference between log scale and linear scale sometimes will make for an interesting story on trendlines and fib channels too. I prefer to keep my chart in log scale, but will toggle between log and linear occasionally to see if there's something interesting there in the lines already drawn.) The concept of fractal nature in price movements and how patterns tend to repeat over time.
NYSE:GMEEducation
by BoilerPaulie
14
Something’s Brewing at the Front EndDonald Trump wants lower interest rates. He may well get his wish soon, at least at the front of the U.S. Treasury curve. The chart you’re looking at has two panes. On the left, we have U.S. two-year Treasury futures. On the right, we have two-year U.S. Treasury yields. The former uses a weekly tick, the latter daily. With futures coiling in a well-defined ascending triangle pattern for more than a year, you get the sense that should we see a weekly close above 104’16’0, it may act as a catalyst to spark further upside, potentially explosive. The contract has been rejected at the level six separate times since July 2024, including four failed breakout attempts over the same period. This reinforces its importance. Given its proximity to the level with RSI (14) and MACD generating bullish momentum signals, attempt number seven—if we see it—stands a decent chance of sticking. If we see a sustained break above 104’16’0, 105’08’0, 106’06’6 and 107’06’2 loom as the levels to watch, especially the latter as it aligns with the extension target based on the triangle’s height. If it were to be achieved, it points to a nominal two-year Treasury yield of around 1.5%. That’s obviously far lower than where it currently resides, pointing to negative real rates given the Fed’s 2% inflation target and, in all likelihood, economic conditions far weaker than recent years or monetary policy being guided by factors other than fundamentals. While the setup is tradable, if it plays out, it will have ramifications far beyond rate futures given the economic signal it would provide. When you look at recent moves in hard assets with perceived scarcity value, it appears many investors and traders are already positioning for such an environment. Good luck, DS
CBOT:ZT1!Education
by FOREX.com
4
Tesla (TSLA) — Momentum Reload or Major Cooldown?The Next $400–$450 Decision Zone! 🧭 Weekly Chart — Big Picture Momentum Tesla has printed one of the cleanest BOS (Break of Structure) patterns on the weekly timeframe since the post-2023 recovery, confirming that the macro downtrend has flipped into a sustained bullish expansion. The stock ripped from its $216 CHoCH base and is now consolidating above the prior macro breakout line near $425. However, the latest weekly candle shows stalling momentum, forming a short-term distribution near the $430–$440 region. That zone lines up perfectly with the previous supply structure and fib confluence from 2022 highs. The MACD histogram remains strongly positive but is beginning to flatten — early warning that buying pressure might be easing. Stoch RSI is also hovering near overbought at 85+, signaling the need for a short-term reset before the next leg. * Bullish scenario: A weekly close above $436–$440 would confirm strength continuation toward $488–$500, the next liquidity zone. * Bearish scenario: A close below $410 opens the door for a healthy pullback to $367–$376, a major equilibrium level with demand imbalance and previous BOS base. Weekly takeaway: Trend remains bullish, but short-term overextension hints at a pause or mild retracement before another drive up. ⚙️ Daily Chart — Structure and Cooling Phase The daily chart confirms Tesla’s minor pullback within the larger bullish wave. After breaking above $400 with strong momentum, price is now consolidating just above its breakout order block ($415–$420). The BOS on daily shows continuation potential, but MACD has started printing red bars — suggesting that momentum is fading and a retest is underway. The Stoch RSI sitting high around 93 indicates the correction may continue until momentum rebalances. * Bullish case: If TSLA can hold $416 and print a higher low, the next upside targets are $442 → $455, then $488 (supply zone). * Bearish case: A daily close below $414 would invalidate near-term bullish control, triggering a slide toward $400–$397, a major demand block that aligns with GEX PUT support. Daily summary: Still in bullish structure, but short-term retracement needed for healthy continuation. Watch for $415 hold as pivot. ⏱ 1-Hour Chart — Trading Plan On the 1-hour chart, TSLA is forming a short-term consolidation wedge between $420 and $436 after multiple CHoCH and BOS flips. The stock is bouncing between mid-range liquidity pockets, showing clear indecision from both sides. MACD is recovering from a previous bearish cycle, while Stoch RSI has crossed up from mid-levels — showing early signs of a micro-bounce in progress.
Volume confirms that buyers are active at $424–$425 zone, but strong resistance remains near $436–$440. Trading Plan: * Bullish setup: Enter above $436 breakout with target $445 → $455, stop at $425. * Bearish setup: Short if $420 fails with downside target $405 → $400, stop at $430. This structure allows swing-to-scalp flexibility — traders can lean bullish above $425 but must stay cautious until price reclaims $436 decisively. 💥 Options GEX & Institutional Positioning Based on the Options GEX chart: * Highest Call Wall: $450 — heavy resistance and likely magnet if bulls push higher. * Next positive GEX zone: $445, where gamma flips positive and market makers chase delta hedges upward. * Major PUT Wall: $400 — strong defense area, aligning perfectly with chart structure and demand. * IVR 25.7 / IVx 67.7 → volatility premium moderate, favoring directional plays with limited spreads. Gamma interpretation: As long as price holds between $425–$440, market makers maintain positive gamma, keeping price pinned and range-bound. A clean breakout above $440 could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $455–$460. 🎯 Option Strategy Ideas 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Play: * Buy $430C / Sell $450C (Oct 25 expiry) — risk ~$6 for a potential $14 reward if Tesla rallies to $450+. * Aggressive intraday: Buy 0DTE/2DTE $430 Calls only if price reclaims $436 with volume. 2️⃣ Bearish Hedge: * Buy $420P / Sell $400P (Oct 18 expiry) — ideal if $420 support fails and correction deepens. 3️⃣ Neutral Income Strategy: * Expecting chop between $420–$440? Sell Iron Condor ($440C/$450C and $410P/$400P) to profit from time decay. 💬 Final Thoughts Tesla remains one of the strongest setups in the market — the bullish macro trend is intact, but current levels are stretched. Expect sideways or minor correction before another breakout attempt. The $415–$425 area is the key battleground: lose it, and we test $400; reclaim $436+, and the rocket’s back on for $455–$480. My TA continues to show high win-rate accuracy, and if you’ve followed previous analyses, you’ve seen how precise these levels play out.
If there’s any stock you want me to analyze next — even ones I don’t usually post — DM me and I’ll be happy to break it down for you. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
30
Small Caps: Finally a Breakout?The Russell 2000 has been stuck in a rut for years, but some traders may think the small-cap index has finally achieved escape velocity. The first pattern on today’s chart is the November 2021 high around 2,460, where prices stalled last November. RUT has gotten above it this month and refused to stay below. Is a breakout finally underway? Second is the September 25 low of 2,394. Prices tested and held that level last week, which may confirm support is in place. Third, the index had a bullish inside candle after Friday’s selloff, followed by a bullish outside bar. That may reflect buyers are gaining control. Next, RUT has apparently broken a trendline that began with the high on October 6. Finally, consider this weekly ratio chart of the Russell 2000 against the Nasdaq-100. Notice how RUT outperformed in late 2023 and July 2024. Both of those moments saw expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. (Such moves often favor small caps.) Notice how the ratio is climbing again at the same time that investors look for more dovishness from the central bank. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:RUT
by TradeStation
2