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USDJPY Eyes 153.20 Support as Fed Signals Patience on Rate CutsHey Traders, In today’s trading session, we’re monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around the 153.200 zone. The pair remains in a broader uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, approaching a key support and resistance area aligned with the ascending trendline. Structure: USDJPY continues to print higher highs and higher lows, maintaining strong bullish momentum. The 153.200 level serves as a critical zone of confluence where buyers have historically stepped in. Fundamentals: Recent Fed commentary emphasized patience before cutting rates, citing the need for more evidence of cooling inflation. This reinforces a hawkish tone, supporting the Dollar Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
1
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Versus Monetary Policy Chart shows: —Bitcoin/Gold —20-Week SMA —SMA Slope Z-Scores* —Fed Funds —QE & QT Bitcoin/Gold broke support of its 20W SMA for the 6th time in Bitcoin's history while the SMA slope normalizer* value reached zero (the long SMA rolled over), the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, and QT is ending. These could represent increased bearish probabilities for the Btc/Gold ratio on medium and long timeframes. *Slope Normalizer: The differentiated (positive and negative values are separated before subsequent calculations are made with the data) normalized z-scores (z-scores below 1 are muted while z-scores above 1 are not muted, in order to emphasize unusual values.) When used with the SMA as an input, this essentially shows the normalized values of the rates of change of the SMA (on this chart, it is showing the normalized slope of the long-term simple moving average.)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MarkLefevre
AUD/USD – Waiting for the Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg?After rebounding strongly from October lows, AUD/USD is testing the 0.6580–0.6620 supply zone while staying above the key support area at 0.6520–0.6550. On the macro side, the RBA remains data-dependent after pausing its rate cuts, citing sticky services inflation and resilient labor markets. Meanwhile, the USD has been capped by softer growth data and growing expectations for further Fed easing into early 2026 — a mix that keeps AUD/USD in recovery mode, at least short term. COT positioning (last valid as of September 23, due to the CFTC shutdown) still reflected heavy speculative shorts on the Aussie — a structure that supported the recent bullish correction but is now outdated. Retail sentiment shows 77% of traders short, suggesting a strong contrarian upside bias, consistent with the technical picture. Seasonality data points to a mildly positive bias in October–November, typically followed by neutral behavior in December. Technical structure: Price has broken out of the descending channel and is building a short-term higher-low structure. Support (demand zone): 0.6520–0.6550 Resistance (supply zone): 0.6580–0.6620 → breakout could extend toward 0.6680–0.6720 RSI: mid-range, indicating room for another impulse higher. 🎯 Trading Plan Base scenario: Look for a pullback into 0.6520–0.6550 to rejoin the bullish leg targeting 0.6680–0.6720. Alternative: A rejection from 0.6600–0.6620 could trigger a short-term correction toward 0.6500 before buyers return. Invalidation: Daily close below 0.6475 (loss of structure). ⚙️ Bias: Short-term bullish, medium-term neutral-to-bullish. 🕒 Focus: RBA tone, Chinese PMIs, and U.S. ISM/labor data — all key for the next leg of AUD/USD.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
ZEC/USDT spot sellNow we'll see bearish candles, or we'll rise slightly until we reach a strong order block, but I'm not interested in this weak rise that will be followed by a drop. Therefore, I think it's better to exit now until we see if the news about the PCE comes out or not. If it does, it's a good boost for the markets, and if the expectations are positive, the boost will be even bigger. If the result is weaker than expected, the price will fall, and if the result is better than expected, we'll continue with a very strong upward trend. However, if the report doesn't come out due to the government shutdown, it will be very negative again, just like what happened with the GDP news. Be wary of the fluctuations that will occur from now on, as there may be a surprise positive or negative announcement.
Short
by mhmd0010
BTCUSDT – Hawkish Fed Sends Bitcoin to Test Its 200‑Day LineBitcoin extended losses this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone cooled expectations for another rate cut. The move left traders torn between short-term risk-off signals and long-term technical support. The Fed’s second straight 25-basis-point cut was widely expected, but Powell’s comments hinted that the central bank may pause before easing further. That shift strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on crypto and risk assets. Bitcoin slipped around 3% to below $108 000 before finding temporary footing. 🔹 Macro & Sentiment Powell’s message was clear: the committee remains divided, and caution may prevail into year-end. That triggered profit-taking across risk markets. Meanwhile, Trump’s “amazing” meeting with Xi Jinping and a new trade truce added volatility, but digital assets lagged the optimism seen in equities — a sign of hesitation among crypto traders. 🔹 Chart & Levels BTC is now testing its 200-day moving average near $110 000, a level that has defined the broader uptrend since summer. Below that, key support sits at $107 000 and $100 000. Resistance remains around $120 000–$127 000. A clean bounce from the 200-day line could restore bullish momentum, while a break beneath it would expose the lower range. As long as $110 k holds, bias stays cautiously bullish toward $120 k+. Below $110 k, the outlook turns more corrective. 🧾 The Takeaway Fed caution has slowed Bitcoin’s momentum but not yet reversed its trend. The next major move depends on whether the 200-day line can hold under the pressure of a stronger dollar and shifting rate expectations. Off to you: Will Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD defend its 200-day support or roll over for a deeper correction?
by Market_Atlas
1
Today's Market Wrap: Fed, Gold, and Earnings – 29/10/2025The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the lowest level since 2022. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible pause in further rate cuts for the rest of the year. Still, the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 1%, both hitting fresh record highs. Gold remained flat at $3,950 an ounce after Powell warned that a December rate cut is not guaranteed. Potential progress on the US-China trade framework has also reduced some safe-haven demand. In corporate earnings, Microsoft beat expectations but saw a ~2.5% drop in after-hours trading due to a slight miss in cloud revenue. Meta posted strong results but fell ~8% after hours, driven by concerns over capital expenditure. Alphabet exceeded earnings and revenue forecasts, with strong performance across Search, YouTube, and Cloud, sending shares up ~5% in after-hours trading.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
BTC pinned below 116k: FOMC to break the range__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling into the FOMC: capped at 115–116k and defended at 112.7k, with volatility set to expand on the trigger. Momentum: Range with a tactical bearish tilt 📉 — compression below 115–116k, dip buyers active at 112.7k. Key levels: Resistances (HTF) : 114.9–115.1k (1D/4H), 116.0k (1D/12H), 117.9k (1D extension). Supports (HTF) : 112.7k (1D/12H), 111.7k (HTF), 109.05–109.07k (2H/6H/1D cluster). Volumes: Moderate on 1D; “normal” intraday; “very high” on 30m during impulses. Multi-timeframe signals: 12H Down while 1D is Up — transitional range; a confirmed break above 115–116k would align TFs, otherwise risk of a 112.7k → 109k sweep. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL SELL — validates caution and counters any sustained push until 115–116k is reclaimed; favors edge trading. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategy: event‑driven range with a risk‑off tilt — trade the edges with confirmation. Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 115.1–116k; bias invalidated on daily close > 116k . Opportunities: - Breakout buy: Reclaim/close above 115.1–116k with volume, target 121–122k. - Buy the dip: Confirmed (≥2H) bullish rejection at 109.05–109.07k, back to 112.7k then 114.9–115.1k. - Tactical sell: Clear 114.9–116k rejection (2H/4H bearish close), aim 113.0k then 112.7k, runner 111.7k. Risk zones / invalidations: A close < 111.7k opens the 109k cluster; a ≥2H close < 109k invalidates dip‑buys. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): FOMC cut (25 bps) with possible QT changes; options crowding = whipsaw risk; spot ETF inflows = mild cushion. Action plan: Entry: confirmed post‑breakout retest 116,050–116,200. Stop: below 114,900. TP1: 117,900; TP2: 121,000–122,000; TP3: let it run if extends. R/R: approximately 1:2 to 1:3 depending on fill. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, 1D remains constructive but intraday groups lean NEUTRAL SELL, keeping price in an event‑driven range. 12H/6H/4H/2H/1H/30m: NEUTRAL SELL with lower highs below 115–116k; supports at 112.7k then 111.7k; highest‑quality demand at 109.05–109.07k, deeper near ~107k. 1D: Still constructive while 109k holds; a 1D close above 116k would align TFs and open 121–122k (potential squeeze). Major divergence: 12H Down vs 1D Up — a transitional signal; 115–116k is the decision band for trend alignment or a rotation toward 109k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC‑led macro should decide the range resolution and drive the next volatility expansion. Macro events: 25 bps cut expected with QT end/slowdown discussed — direct risk‑on/off catalyst; options are crowded long → whipsaw risk; equities at highs keep the tone constructive but fragile around the event. Bitcoin analysis: US spot ETF inflows add a small downside cushion; corporate bids and stablecoin mints help demand; technically, >116k unlocks 121–122k, losing 111k ups odds of a 109k flush. On-chain data: Modest whale prints; stablecoin mints increasing; no clear systemic distribution — tactical support rather than a trigger. Expected impact: Technical bias stays NEUTRAL SELL until 115–116k is reclaimed; the post‑FOMC reaction should confirm either a squeeze to 121–122k or a liquidity hunt toward 109k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a catalyst‑driven range under a major resistance shelf. - Overall trend: neutral with a bearish tilt while 115–116k caps. - Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 116k toward 121–122k; alternative is a confirmed dip‑buy at 109.05–109.07k. - One macro factor: FOMC decision and QT guidance can flip risk tone quickly. Stay nimble: trade confirmation, not guesses — let the reaction lead.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
XAUUSD: How Will Gold Prices Move Next?Fundamental approach: - Trade Talks and Gold Sentiment: Gold experienced a sharp correction after reaching record highs, primarily due to improving risk sentiment as optimism grew around US-China trade negotiations. Reports indicate that both nations have reached a preliminary framework agreement on export controls and tariffs, which is expected to ease geopolitical tensions and reduce demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold.​ - Other Pressures: Fed Policy and the US Dollar: The gold market is also reacting to expectations of a Fed rate cut. While a rate cut typically supports gold, the move is largely priced into the market. Recent steadiness in the US dollar, as well as the possibility of a less dovish stance from the Fed, has added further pressure. With traders focusing on upcoming policy signals and macroeconomic data, a "cut and pause" approach from the Fed could prompt continued profit-taking in gold.​ - Outlook: As long as US-China relations remain stable and central banks, especially the Fed, avoid surprising markets with additional dovish measures, XAUUSD may remain under pressure. Technical approach: - XAUUSD significantly declined to the support area of 3890-3950. The price is between both EMAs, indicating a shift to sideways movement. - If XAUUSD breaches the support area, the price may decline to the next support level at 3720, which is confluenced with the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension. - Conversely, remaining above the support area may prompt a retest of the next resistance at 4054. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by DatTong
Stop!Loss|Market View: SILVER🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for SILVER ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 45.69877 💰TP: 41.19089 ⛔️SL: 48.77557 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Metals remain a mid-term sell priority. For silver, the most likely scenario is the formation of a small accumulation near 47.48680 (main scenario), where the price expectedly paused its decline. Given the Fed's interest rate decision today, we can't rule out volatility, which could lead to a retest of the point of control (POC) area around 48.80 (alternative scenario). The downside target remains in the 41-42 range. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by StopLoss222
Stop!Loss|Market View: GBPUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the GBPUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.33660 💰TP: 1.31160 ⛔️SL: 1.34654 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: The pound's first downside targets, previously noted, have already been reached, namely 1.33000. Sell priority remains, but given potential volatility (the Fed's interest rate decision is today) and the presence of seller liquidity near 1.34 (sellers's stop-loss levels), a short-term strengthening of the pound is likely. This doesn't change the mid-term trend, and downside targets of 1.32, 1.31, and 1.30 are still being looked for. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Short
by StopLoss222
USD/CAD: Short-Term Correction 🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) (Last update: September 23, 2025 – data not refreshed due to the U.S. government shutdown) USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutional traders were closing shorts and adding longs, signaling early signs of bullish bias on the USD before the shutdown halted updates. Canadian Dollar (CME Futures) Non-commercial longs: 18,035 (−2,940) Non-commercial shorts: 132,841 (+4,689) → Heavy short build-up on CAD alongside long reduction — a bearish institutional sentiment for the Canadian Dollar. Even with outdated data, the COT positioning remains USD bullish / CAD bearish, supporting a medium-term upside bias on USD/CAD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 56% short / 44% long 📌 Retail traders are slightly net short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for USD/CAD — aligning with institutional positioning. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October shows mild positive bias for USD/CAD on long-term averages (15–20 years), but the 5-year tendency is slightly negative. Neutral-to-mildly bullish for late October, with stronger USD seasonality emerging in November–December. 🔹 Price Action The pair remains within a rising parallel channel from July lows, recently rejecting the upper boundary near 1.4100 and showing early signs of structural fatigue. Price is now consolidating between 1.4000–1.3900, with bearish momentum slowly building up. Technical Levels: Resistance: 1.4050–1.4100 Support zone 1: 1.3900 Support zone 2 (major): 1.3700 RSI: showing divergence with lower highs, signaling potential corrective leg ahead. 🎯 Main Scenario: A short-term retracement toward 1.3850–1.3800 remains likely if 1.3900 breaks, while the broader bullish trend remains intact unless price closes below 1.3700. Bias for now → Short-term corrective, medium-term bullish. Invalidation: daily close below 1.3700 (trendline + demand break).
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
DXY Approaching 98.900 — Weak Labor Market Could Push Fed DovishHey Traders, in today’s trading session we’re monitoring DXY for a potential selling opportunity around the 98.900 zone. The index continues to trade within a descending channel and is currently in a correction phase, approaching the upper boundary near 98.900, which aligns with channel resistance. Fundamentals: Recent data continues to show signs of a weakening U.S. labor market, with job growth slowing and unemployment ticking higher. This softening backdrop increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance in upcoming meetings, potentially weighing further on the dollar. Next move: Watching for bearish confirmations around the 98.900 zone — rejection here could resume the broader downtrend. 💬 What’s your outlook on the Fed’s next move? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
6
US500: Strong Upward Momentum Approaching 7000 LevelFundamental approach: - The US500 advanced this week, propelled by strong earnings momentum from tech giants and robust performance in select sectors. Among top movers, Qualcomm rose over 11% following upbeat earnings guidance, while Alphabet and Tesla also rallied ahead of their highly anticipated quarterly results. W.R. Berkley Corporation and Welltower Inc. were notable gainers, reflecting sector rotation and risk-on flows in the index. - Earnings from the 'Magnificent Seven', including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, drove sentiment, with over 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting results above consensus expectations so far this quarter. Tesla's performance was mixed, while Amazon is set to announce slightly lower profits, but the broader group is still outpacing the rest of the market in earnings growth. - Tech earnings and the upcoming FOMC decision are key catalysts that may influence future US500 moves. Broad sector participation and ongoing AI investment could sustain upward momentum if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. Technical approach: - US500 created a new all-time high this week after breaching the key level at around 6765. The index showed an urgency in moving upward, creating a gap that remains unfilled. US500 is well above the diverging EMAs, indicating a strong upward momentum. However, the index is approaching the upper bound of the ascending channel, which may limit the price movement. - If the current gap remains unfilled, the US500 may continue to move upward and test the psychological resistance at 7000. - On the contrary, rejecting the channel's upper bound may prompt a correction and fill the gap around 6790, retesting the broken level at 6765. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DatTong
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The reduction in its downward momentum in the demand range will provide us with a better risk-reward buying position. A move towards the supply range above the channel will be our next short trade! Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since October 10, following a sharp $125 decline. According to a Reuters survey, the average gold price in 2026 is expected to reach $4,275 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to average $50 per ounce in the same year. For 2025, the survey anticipates an average gold price of $3,400, up from $3,220 in the previous poll, while the average silver price is forecasted to rise to $38.45 from $34.52 previously. Analysts at Nomura stated that U.S.–China relations have entered a repetitive cycle of tension, escalation, and temporary détente, likely forming a “new normal” in the long term. Lu Ting, Nomura’s chief China economist, noted that the world’s two largest economies appear to be settling into a predictable pattern of “strain–escalation–pause”, which may define the framework of their relationship in the foreseeable future. Recent trade talks in Kuala Lumpur hinted at a temporary easing of friction, with both sides reportedly considering limited concessions, such as extending tariff suspensions and resuming soybean imports from the U.S. However, deep-seated disputes remain unresolved — including export restrictions on rare earth elements, compliance with trade commitments, and broader geopolitical disagreements — all of which cloud the outlook for bilateral relations. Lu cautioned that while short-term cooperation may continue due to mutual economic dependence, long-term strategic competition between Washington and Beijing is expected to intensify. Nomura believes this recurrent cycle of conflict and reconciliation will likely become the enduring pattern of U.S.–China relations. Such a backdrop implies persistent volatility in global markets, particularly in commodities and technology sectors, which are highly sensitive to trade developments between the two nations. Investors should prepare for alternating periods of optimism and renewed tension. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada may turn into a major self-inflicted setback, as the move faces both a legal challenge before the U.S. Supreme Court and bipartisan opposition. Next week, the Supreme Court is set to hear a case focusing on Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify these tariffs. Trump initially invoked an emergency declaration related to fentanyl to impose them — despite the fact that such powers are typically reserved for sanctions against U.S. adversaries. The case represents not only a test of the tariffs’ legality, but also a measure of Trump’s and MAGA’s influence over the Court. Notably, Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, joined over 200 Democrats in sending a letter to the justices urging them to strike down the tariffs. The oral arguments are scheduled for November 5, and the final ruling, which could serve as a major market mover, is expected sometime next year. Currently, prediction markets estimate a 38% probability that the tariffs will be overturned. At the same time, Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. dollar positioning has turned positive for the first time in several months, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. This shift comes amid rising political instability in Japan and France, which has diminished the appeal of non-dollar assets and strengthened capital flows toward the greenback. Strategists at the bank added that demand for downside protection against the dollar has declined, indicating that investors perceive a low risk of a sharp correction in the near term. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley warned that this uptrend might not be sustainable — if U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures, fail to show significant improvement, the dollar could again face renewed downward pressure, and rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve could rise. Finally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent confirmed that five candidates have been shortlisted to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair: Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder. Bassent stated that one more round of interviews will take place, and he plans to submit the final shortlist to President Trump after Thanksgiving, with a final decision expected before year-end.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Can the Euro Break Free From the Dollar's Grip?The EUR/USD currency pair is extending a modest winning streak, nearing 1.1670 as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. This marks the fifth consecutive day of gains for the pair, largely fueled by a cooling USD sentiment due to the prolonged US government shutdown and a cautiously dovish outlook from the Fed. Despite this short-term momentum, a sustained rally remains elusive. The pair is currently searching for a stronger catalyst, with the upcoming monetary policy meetings from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to provide the necessary spark for clearer directional movement. Immediate resistance levels are flagged around 1.1728 and 1.1778, while initial support rests at the October low of 1.1542. The underlying technical picture suggests that while the broader positive trend holds above the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), momentum is weak. Key indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting just over 47 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 15, imply that the current upward move lacks conviction and leaves the door open for potential renewed losses. Investors are keenly focused on a potential shift in the narrative. A dovish surprise from the Fed, a reduction in the appetite for US assets, or a more encouraging stance from the ECB could provide the requisite lift for the Euro. Furthermore, any genuine progress in easing US-China trade tensions would also likely weigh on the USD and benefit the currency pair. The fundamental backdrop is characterized by the Washington stalemate and a cautious approach from both major central banks. The nearly month-long US government shutdown continues to erode business confidence and negatively impact growth expectations, contributing to the USD's drift lower. Meanwhile, the Fed is largely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at its upcoming meeting, maintaining a flexible, "meeting by meeting" policy approach as it balances softer job data against lingering inflation. Across the Atlantic, the ECB is opting to stay patient, with President Christine Lagarde expressing confidence that policy is "in a good place" and future adjustments will be entirely data-dependent, a signal that the European easing cycle may be largely concluded, at least for now.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
AUDUSD Eyes 0.6500 as Softer CPI and Weak Jobs Data Weigh on USDHey Traders, In the coming week, we’re monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.65000 zone. The pair remains in a broader uptrend, with the current pullback shaping up as a healthy correction toward key structural support. Structure: Price continues to respect its ascending trendline, and the 0.65000 area aligns with a strong confluence of horizontal support and dynamic trend structure — a level that has previously attracted strong buying momentum. Macro Outlook: The latest U.S. inflation print came in softer at 3.0%, undershooting expectations, while labour market data continues to signal cooling conditions. Together, these developments reinforce a dovish shift in Fed sentiment, weighing on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). At the same time, Gold continues to rally, underpinned by the weakening Dollar and rising safe-haven demand. Given the positive correlation between AUD and Gold, this macro backdrop strengthens the bullish case for AUDUSD in the coming sessions. Next Move: A sustained bid around 0.65000 could mark the start of another impulse leg higher — targeting a retest of recent highs if momentum confirms. Trade safe, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
9
Stocks at Records Ahead of Big Week of Fed & Tech. What to WatchRecord highs, rate-cut optimism, five tech giants on deck — what a time to be a market participant! It’s Monday, and Wall Street is back doing what it does best — setting new records and pretending not to worry about what comes next. After a cooler-than-expected inflation print and some diplomatic smiles from Washington and Beijing, all three major indexes are kicking off the week in full throttle. Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI finally closed north of 47,000 for the first time ever, rising 472 points, or 1%. You know that feeling when you hit every green light on the way to work? That’s what Friday felt like. The S&P 500 SP:SPX climbed 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC gained 1.2%. Together, the trio ended the week at record highs. The spark? September’s Consumer Price Index ECONOMICS:USCPI rose 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% expected. Traders took that as a nod from the economy that the Federal Reserve can keep easing off the monetary brakes. Odds of at least a half-point in rate cuts by year-end jumped to nearly 97%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Soft inflation, strong sentiment, and new highs — *insert feelsgoodman meme.* 🤝 A Trade Truce (For Now) Adding to optimism, US and Chinese negotiators sounded unusually positive over the weekend. The two sides reportedly hammered out a trade framework, setting the stage for President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to meet in South Korea later this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the talks “ought to pave the way” for a broader discussion on tariffs, tech transfers, and everything in between — the kind of vague optimism that markets eat up like comfort food. For now, investors are choosing to focus on the handshake rather than the fine print. After all, in the markets, hope is often more powerful than details. 🏦 The Fed’s Big Moment The main event, however, comes midweek. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR by a quarter point on Wednesday. But the real show starts after the decision, when Jerome Powell takes the mic. Traders will be parsing every word of his press conference for hints on how much further the Fed is willing to go. The tone of his remarks could determine whether markets keep coasting at record highs — or finally take a breather. So far, Powell has managed to thread the needle: easing just enough to keep growth alive without letting inflation flare back up. But with stocks at all-time highs and job data still missing due to the government shutdown, he’s got a tough balancing act. 💻 Big Tech Takes the Stage Anyway, peak earnings season is here and if macro policy is the first act this week, Big Tech earnings are the broader narrative. Five members of the Magnificent Seven — Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Meta NASDAQ:META , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN — will all report their latest results. That’s roughly $12 trillion in combined market cap stepping into the spotlight. After a few solid years of sky-high expectations around AI, cloud, and advertising recovery, investors are craving proof that the hype is translating into actual earnings. The question isn’t whether these companies are still dominant — it’s whether they can keep growing fast enough to justify valuations that have already priced in perfection. Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet kick things off Wednesday, Apple and Amazon step up Thursday. Somewhere between all that, expect social media feeds to explode with charts, hot takes, and the occasional meme about “buying the dip” before it even happens. 🌍 Markets in a Mood It’s one of those rare weeks when every major force — central banks, geopolitics, and tech earnings — converge into a single market narrative. And, by the looks of it, that narrative is leaning bullish. Still, keep an eye out for surprises. Off to you : Where do you think markets are heading this week? Are you excited to snap up some tech shares ahead of the updates or looking to play defense? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
19
XAUUSD - Gold awaits a decisive week?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly timeframe and is trading in its range. A break below or above this range will lead to a continuation of the trend in the same direction. A correction towards the demand range will provide us with a better risk-reward buying opportunity. And a rise will provide us with the next short position! After experiencing one of the worst trading sessions for gold in recent years and failing to achieve its tenth consecutive week of gains, many traders, analysts, and retail investors are now wondering where the gold market is headed next. Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, took a cautious stance, saying: “At the moment, I prefer not to hold any position in the market. I’m simply observing and waiting to see how conditions unfold.” With the U.S. federal government shutdown still ongoing, the release of economic data next week is expected to be limited. As a result, market attention will once again shift toward central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. On Tuesday, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for October will be released. However, the main market movements are expected on Wednesday, when the Bank of Canada’s policy decision and the U.S. pending home sales data will be published — followed by the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. Later, the Bank of Japan will provide an update on its monetary stance, and finally, the week will conclude with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision on Thursday, which could also influence the euro’s direction. It is widely expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed aims to lower borrowing costs and support the labor market through this move. Having kept rates elevated for an extended period to combat stubborn inflation, policymakers now view labor market stability as a higher priority, given that recent data show inflation remains persistent but under control. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks rate expectations through federal funds futures, the FOMC is likely to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking a second consecutive rate cut. While many Fed officials have expressed readiness to ease rates, opinions still differ on the pace and extent of future reductions. The outlook for upcoming policy actions remains uncertain, as the Fed continues to balance its dual mandate from Congress — containing inflation while maximizing employment. A rate cut would bring the federal funds rate closer to a neutral level, where it neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity. Although the Fed kept rates high to fight inflation, the recent weakening in the labor market has become a more pressing concern. Even though inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target, officials are increasingly worried about the health of the labor market, as job creation has nearly stalled in recent months. By lowering the federal funds rate, the Fed seeks to reduce short-term borrowing costs, encourage lending and investment, and bolster employment. At the same time, trade tariffs are contributing both to rising prices and slower job growth. These import taxes have created uncertainty among business leaders, discouraging expansion plans and pushing higher costs onto consumers. The Fed now faces the challenge of making interest rate decisions without access to many key economic reports it typically relies upon. In fact, the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) may be the last major economic data release the central bank receives for some time. Other crucial government reports — including employment and GDP growth data — have been delayed or suspended due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, and may not be released at all for October.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
NZDUSD Eyes 0.57350 as Fed Turns Dovish! Hey Traders, In today’s trading session, we’re monitoring NZDUSD for a buying opportunity around the 0.57350 zone. The pair is trading in an uptrend and currently in a correction phase, approaching the 0.57350 support and resistance area, which aligns with the trend structure. On the fundamental side, the U.S. labor market continues to show signs of cooling, with recent comments from Fed officials acknowledging that the slowdown “needs to be reflected in policy decisions.” This softer tone ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting could reinforce a dovish stance and weigh on the U.S. Dollar, potentially providing support for NZDUSD upside. Trade safe, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
5
Dollar In Range-And It May Not Be Broken Soon...Stocks are pushing nicely to the upside after some optimism that a deal could be reached between the US and China regarding tariffs, as reported this weekend by Trump himself. He’s clearly driving the market into a risk-on mode. However, it’s interesting to see that the dollar is still going nowhere; the only FX market showing a more decisive move is the Aussie, which is naturally benefiting from this story. Looking at the dollar index, no one knows where it wants to move but basic analysis in ranges is simple; "down from resistance, up from the support". Keep in mind we’re still missing the latest US jobs data, so the outlook for further cuts remains uncertain, and that could keep the dollar moving sideways for now. Have a nice trading week! GH
FX:USDOLLAR
by ew-forecast
Is the Yellow Metal Ready to BUST Out?Hold onto your hats, traders! It's been a very wild ride in the FX_IDC:XAUUSD market, proving that what goes up (to a Double Top 🏔️🏔️) must come down (with a vengeance!). After a decisive rejection at the $4381 peak, Gold took a spectacular 8.64% dive last Tuesday, landing sharply at the $4002 low 📉. Talk about a waterfall! 🌊 But don't count the bulls out yet! Gold showed some backbone, bouncing 3.97% back up to $4161 before settling into a cage match. It's now consolidating in a classic Triangle pattern (a.k.a. Compression) 📐, ranging from the $4002 floor up to the stronger resistance near $4135. The Great Consolidation: Triangle Tension 😮‍💨 The key takeaway? That $4000 psychological support is a BEAST. 💪 It survived test after test during the Asia, EU, and US sessions last Tuesday and Wednesday! This resilience allowed Gold to build support: first at the $4065 level (the Fib 0.382) and then down to the $4043 low, followed by rock-solid support near the $4000 zone. As Friday closed out the week, Gold was still testing the lower $4100 area, pulling back to $4096. So, what’s next for the shiny metal? That $33 candle Friday, was a direct reaction to the release of the slightly softer-than-expected US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. My Outlook: Patience is Gold, But the FED is Key 🔑 While some market watchers are singing a bearish tune 🐻, I see this as a healthy consolidation phase. Gold has already corrected 50% from its massive move (from $3631 low to the $4381 high). While a deeper correction to the 0.618 Fib at $3918 is possible, I don't see the catalyst right now to push it that far. My bet? Gold will continue to consolidate in $4050 - $4150 range until the major announcement from the FED 🏦. The sharp reversal from the Double Top might just be the clean-out needed to launch prices higher once the rate cut announcement (or even just the dovish talk of future cuts) takes place! The last inflation data was a mixed bag, which gives the FED room to sound reassuringly dovish. The FED Announcement is the main event this week. Mark your calendars! 🗓️ 🔥 Key Economic Events: Central Bank Super Week! 🔥 This week is absolutely jammed with market-moving events across the globe. Get ready for volatility! 🌪️ Monday, October 27, 2025 8:30 AM ET: USD 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) 10:00 AM ET: USD 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep) Tuesday, October 28, 2025 10:00 AM ET: USD CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) Wednesday, October 29, 2025 (The Fed Day) 🏦 All Day: HKD Holiday - Chung Yeung Day 9:45 AM ET: CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 10:30 AM ET: USD Crude Oil Inventories 2:00 PM ET: USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: USD FOMC Press Conference 10:00 PM ET (Approx.): JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision Thursday, October 30, 2025 (ECB and GDP Day) 2:00 AM ET: EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 4:00 AM ET: EUR German CPI (MoM) (Oct) 8:15 AM ET: EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Oct) 8:15 AM ET: EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 8:30 AM ET: USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 8:45 AM ET: EUR ECB Press Conference 9:30 PM ET: CNY Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Friday, October 31, 2025 (Inflation and Month End) 6:00 AM ET: EUR CPI (YoY) (Oct) 8:30 AM ET: USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 8:30 AM ET: USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 9:45 AM ET: USD Chicago PMI (Oct) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Wick-Sniper