CME: Bitcoin Weekly Futures ( MIL:BFF )
On Thursday, October 10th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment.
However, the...
The analysis of the GBP/USD pair indicates a context of uncertainty, with the British pound (GBP) seeking support from relatively subdued demand for the US dollar (USD) but lacking clear bullish pressure. The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further easing by the Bank of England (BoE) and key economic data from...
Following the Fed's lead, the RBNZ also took a big step. The RBNZ took the jumbo step of cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50bps, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. RBNZ stated that New Zealand's economy is now in excess capacity, and low import prices fuel deflation. They insisted that the committee unanimously confirmed that domestic economic activity...
Copper extended the August rebound into autumn and reached three-month highs, helped by the Fed’s jumbo rate cut and massive stimulus from Chinese authorities aiming to prop the economy and the property sector. However the measures do little to address the structural problems and the real estate market is unlikely to return to its former glory, while the lack of...
Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in...
The Fed's possibility of making another jumbo cut quickly faded following September's NFP report, which renewed confidence in the US job market. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a 50bp cut at the November FOMC has dropped from 36.8% to 0%, while the probability of a 25bp cut has surged to 88.8%. It's worth noting that the likelihood of a rate freeze...
The New Zealand dollar is down for a sixth straight day and has fallen 3.6% during that time. NZD has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 0.6120 in the North American session, down 0.07% on the day.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to a cut rates, but by how much? The markets have priced in an oversize rate cut of 50...
After the Fed’s jumbo pivot in September and aggressive easing path, Chair Powell adopted a more reserved approach at the start of the previous week. The cautious messaging was extrapolated at the end of that same week by the strong jobs report. Markets have now priced out bets for another outsized move, expecting 50 bps of cuts by the end of the year, in line...
CME: USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! )
Last week, I discussed how China’s huge stimulus package, coupled with the Fed’s supersized rate cut, could improve global energy demand and lift crude oil higher.
As soon as the stimulus was announced, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on...
In 4H timeframe, gold is moving above the EMA200 and EMA50 in its ascending channel
Gold is still trading in its range box, and geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of the dollar have not led to its failure to rise or fall so far
As long as gold is in this range, the best strategy will be to buy at the bottom and sell at the top
breaking of the two drawn...
In 4H timeframe, gold is moving above the EMA200 and EMA50 in its ascending channel
Gold is still trading in its range box, and geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of the dollar have not led to its failure to rise or fall so far
As long as gold is in this range, the best strategy will be to buy at the bottom and sell at the top
breaking of the two drawn...
Gold price remains resilient, with buyers showing persistence as long as the static support at $2,630 holds firm.
Gold's recent struggle to capitalize on the US Dollar's pullback, following the Greenback's seven-week highs, is notable. Despite weakening US Treasury bond yields, which typically support Gold prices, other global dynamics are weighing on the...
The GBP/USD pair continues to experience downward pressure, primarily due to the resilience of the US Dollar. After breaking the key psychological level of 1.3100 following the release of stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, GBP/USD remains in a corrective phase. The NFP report showed a job growth of 254K in September, significantly surpassing...
THE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in...
Gold saw a huge shakeout this morning, as the Fed commented, and the move in the US dollar put some extreme pressure on metals.
The funny thing is this move ended almost as fast as it started - and now metals are rallying again.
Why?
The Fed is trying to transition into a more global friendly position - allowing foreign nations to become more competitive with...
Gold (XAU/USD) has shown resilience, bouncing back to around $2,640 per ounce after hitting a daily low of $2,638 on Thursday. This recovery was fueled by growing concerns over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as a stronger US Dollar. On the fundamental side, gold remains influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed)...
The upcoming key EU inflation data could play a decisive role in the currency pair's movement. With the ECB signaling potential inflation stabilization at 2% by 2025, future monetary policy may be less aggressive. On the other hand, the Fed has kept the possibility of further rate cuts on hold, with the market anticipating up to 100-125 basis points of rate...
NYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! )
On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle.
Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements,...
