OKLO — when nuclear momentum breaks resistanceSince late 2024, OKLO had been consolidating inside a clear rectangle between $17 and $59. The breakout from this long-term range triggered a new bullish impulse. The price has since returned to retest the breakout zone, now aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $51.94. The retest has completed, and the price is bouncing upward, confirming buyer interest.
Technically, the trend remains firmly bullish. The price closed above the prior range, EMAs are aligned below, and the volume spike during breakout supports genuine demand. The volume profile shows a clean path toward $100, indicating limited resistance ahead. The structure suggests a controlled rally rather than an exhausted move.
Fundamentally, OKLO is a next-generation SMR (Small Modular Reactor) company focused on delivering compact, efficient nuclear power solutions. Following its public debut via SPAC and recent capital injection, OKLO is transitioning from development to implementation. Institutional interest is holding strong, and the broader move toward decarbonization and energy independence places the company in a strategic position.
Target levels:
— First target: $100 — psychological and technical resistance
— Second target: $143 — projected from prior range breakout
OKLO isn’t just another clean energy ticker — it’s a quiet disruptor with nuclear potential. The chart broke out. The volume confirmed. Now it’s time to see if the market follows through.
Growth
Using Amazon as an example to write about intrinsic valueThe beautiful thing about equities, is that we can determine what the stock should be worth based on the future cash flows the company generates. It is called intrinsic value and professional investors often use this calculation to help them make higher quality decisions. The primary method of calculation is called discount cash flow. When building a DCF model is is recommended to use Wall Streets estimates to keep an unbiased opinion.
Understanding the concept of discount cash flow, is like understanding the calculations behind any technical indicator, the thing about intrinsic value is that it is a fundamental indication not just technical. Equities go up, because companies are generating cash flows. Unlike commodities, which are only valued based on the general consensus of voters.
It was Benjamin Graham the father of value investing who said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term the market is a weighing machine. There is a fantastic book I read called The Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham I highly recommend giving it a read if your serious about making money in the market over the long term.
Intrinsic value is the fundamental, true worth of an asset or business, as determined by an objective analysis of its financial performance and future cash flow potential. It is a crucial concept for investors, especially value investors, who use it to identify assets that are undervalued or overvalued by the market.
Focusing on fundamentals helps investors avoid overpaying for assets and reduces the risk of permanent capital loss. If a stock's market price is significantly lower than its calculated intrinsic value, it may be undervalued and a good buying opportunity. The difference is often called a "margin of safety". Intrinsic value is based on an asset's long-term potential, encouraging a focus on sustainable growth and stability rather than short-term market noise.
Now onto Amazon stock, according to my model the intrinsic value of Amazon is as of this writing $260 meaning that fundamentally it is still undervalued. Take this with a grain of salt because if you create a model using the discount cash flows of the company over the next 5 or 10 years you might get wildly different results. This is why it is essential to understand the calculation for yourself instead of just taking my word for it. This is a highly speculative calculation, it can also become relatively complicated.
Lets compare two individuals performance over the course of their career, I would like to write about Dr. Al Brooks, often referred to as the king of price action by CME group, and Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Al Brooks, the day traders net worth is about $750 million dollars over the course of his career in the market. Warren Buffett has a net worth of about $150 billion dollars. One is a trader, the other an investor. So where am I going with this?
Everyone wants to get rich quick, everyone starts thinking they will be a trader. 90% of traders permanently lose their capital never to make it back and often times quitting participating in the market. The 10% of traders who are actually profitable, aren't making as much money as you would think, as per the comparison above. The average investor over the course of their lifetime will make 150x more money than the best traders. For me, I fell into the 90% category, trading didn't work for me, after reading The Intelligent Investor, the money starting coming into my account almost effortlessly.
Dear reader, this article was written by me for my own entertainment. Please do not take anything I have written too literally, always do what works best for you and always remember, whatever your doing, you should be having fun. Cheers
Valuating Coinbase based on the intrinsic valueAfter revising my discount cash flow model for Coinbase I have concluded the intrinsic value for the stock approximately $310 based on my model. I am a few days late with my analysis but it seems like the market has also come up with a similar number based on the technical analysis of the daily chart. I have began accumulating the stock once again. With a target of $575.
Alibaba | BABA | Long at $108.84Like Amazon, I suspect AI and robotics will enhance Alibaba's NYSE:BABA e-commerce, logistics, and cloud computing operations. There is some risk here, like other Chinese stocks, that they could be delisted from the US market if trade/war tensions rise. But I just don't think that is likely (no matter the threats) due to the importance of worldwide trade and investment. I could be way wrong, though...
NYSE:BABA has a current P/E of 14.2x and a forward P/E of 2x, which indicates strong earnings growth ahead. The company is very healthy, with a debt-to-equity of 0.2x, Altmans Z Score of 3.3, and a Quick Ratio of 1.5. If this were a US stock, investors would have piled in long ago at the current price.
From a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average (SMA) band has started to reverse trend (now upward), indicating a high potential for continued (overall) price movement up. It is possible, however, that the price may reenter the SMA band in the near-term - the $80s aren't out of the question - as tariff threats arise. But that area is another personal entry zone if fundamentals hold.
Thus, while it could be a bumpy ride and the risk is there for delisting, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone at $108.84 (with known risk of drop to the $80s in the near-term).
Targets into 2028:
$125.00 (+14.8%)
$160.00 (+47.0%)
Globant | GLOB | Long at $55.00Globant NYSE:GLOB - an IT and software development specializing in AI-driven digital transformation and engineering. The company has partnerships with AWS, Google Cloud, Unity, and Slack, while collaborating with clients such as Google, Electronic Arts, Santander, and Rockwell Automation to deliver enterprise AI and custom software services.
Technical Analysis:
Price for NYSE:GLOB has fallen into my "crash" simple moving average zone. This often, but not always (still a "major" crash zone further down), signals a bottom. The current crash zone extends to $45 and there is a high possibility the price may dip that low in the near-term. Long-term, given the potential earnings and revenue growth, it looks undervalued at its current price.
Earnings and Revenue Growth Between 2025 & 2028
Projected Earnings Growth: ~17% increase (from ~$2.4B in 2025 to $2.8B in 2028)
Projected Revenue Growth: ~96% increase (from ~$157M in 2025 to $309M in 2028, at 28.7% CAGR).
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 0.25x (very good)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 3.5 (excellent/very low risk)
Quick Ratio/Ability to pay current bills: 1.7 (great, low risk)
Action
Due to the good growth potential of NYSE:GLOB , the connections / partnerships it currently has with major companies, and solid financial health, I am personally going long at $55.00. More shares will be gathered if the price reaches the $40's and the fundamentals remain the same.
Targets in 2028
$75.00 (+36.7%)
$100.00 (+81.8%)
Grab - Inverse H&S + Weekly LevelsUnusually high volume on this name lately.
I've been watching this name since it was in the $4-5 range and believe it will be a $10 stock in the near future.
The wider market may be just beginning to notice the opportunity here.
Personally, I've been in $5 2027 leaps and will be seeing where the stock takes me.
For now, my immediate target is $7(see inverse head and shoulders).
Additionally, with the heightened options volume, this could become a great name to trade intraday.
Wix | WIX | Long at $124.35NASDAQ:WIX is a company with steady growth projections driven by AI adoption, market expansion, user acquisition, and a focus on profitability. For example, earnings are forecast to grow 28.24% per year. Analysts project NASDAQ:WIX to achieve approximately $1 billion in free cash flow by 2028. While the current P/E is around 47x, its Forward P/E ratio is approximately 18x (potentially undervalued). I truly believe the changing economy will shift individuals into more entrepreneurship (what else can they do?) and that will be the driving force behind user growth.
From a technical analysis view, the price recently bounced off from my historical simple moving average band (often an area for share accumulation / consolidation). While it may trickle down to close the price gap on the daily chart near $110 in the near-term, I think the outlook needs to be long-term here given the projections. The only issue I see is the current high debt for NASDAQ:WIX , but interest rates are absolutely coming down soon which will help ease the strain.
Thus, at $124.35, NASDAQ:WIX is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2028:
$175.00 (+40.7%)
$250.00 (+101.1%)
Webull Chart - Robinhood Competitor?Calling all matadors, we got a bull to corral.
I've charted some levels of interest for a speculative hold. Many view webull as a potential competitor for robinhood, although fundamentally, bull is in no-where near in the financial position that hood is in terms of free cash flow and expenses (or innovation as far as I've seen).
This could make a great swing trade on pure technicals. If the brokerage industry sees a period of exuberance(like we've seen in the quantum space), bull could catch a bid. This could also occur if we see a rotation out of hood.
I would love to pick up some shares or calls if the name completes a look below and fail of the anchored volume profile's value area low(around $12.28). or a LBAF of the box bottom @ $10.20.
So far webull has been consolidating. I believe a hold above the VPOC (volume point of control @ $15.43), a breakout of the lower boxes and reclaim of the larger upper box around $18.33-$18.87, could see a push to the mid 20s and 30s at least.
If we are following box rules for that potential trade, then I would not be surprised if bull goes to the box midpoint @ $48.97.
If this thing holds above the VPOC around $15.43 or does a LBAF of either $12.28 or $10.20 it's ripe for picking imo.
Now this is pure speculation, and my analysis could be a shack of shit, who knows, BUT if these set ups present themselves, I would like to roll the dice.
~ The Villain
Pfizer’s Next Big Shot: COVID Levels Back on the Table?Huge Crisis or Groundbreaking Discovery?
This scenario suggests that once the running flat correction is completed — which we are very close to — the price is set to explode by at least 300% in the coming years (see red box).
Why do I think so?
• The running correction is approaching its final target zone, meaning the price should soon stop, reverse, and start pumping.
• After the correction phase comes the impulse, and we are expecting Wave 3 — the most volatile and dynamic wave of all.
• Minimum target: $108
It’s only a matter of sooner or later.
XAU/USD 15/09/2025Bias Map
HTF Bias: Bullish ⬆️ (85% probability)
Key Liquidity Zones:
Above: The recent high at $3,660 and the subsequent high at $3,675. This is the primary target for further bullish movement.
Below: The low at $3,620, which is the immediate support level. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish bias in the short term. The next major liquidity pool is around the $3,600 psychological level.
Sniper Entries
Entry #1: Buy at $3,638 | SL $3,630 | TP1 $3,655 | TP2 $3,670 | RR 2.12
Entry #2: Buy at $3,630 (retest of previous resistance now support) | SL $3,625 | TP1 $3,645 | TP2 $3,660 | RR 3.0
Execution Notes
Session to focus: London/NY overlap. This session typically provides the most volatility and volume for breakouts and trend continuation.
Conditions to validate entry:
A liquidity sweep below $3,640 followed by a break of structure (BoS) on the M1/M5 charts, signaling a move back up.
Confirmation of a fair value gap (FVG) fill in the M15/M1 timeframes around the $3,638 price level.
The $3,630 entry is a high-probability setup based on a retest of the previous M15 resistance level, which is now acting as support. A clean reaction here would be a strong signal.
Risk management note: Use a 1% maximum risk per trade with an ATR-based stop loss for adaptive sizing. Keep maximum drawdown (DD) below 5%. 📈
Netflix | Next Episode: Testing Lower Channel SupportNetflix extended higher through April on the back of strong Q1 earnings, resilient pricing power, and traction in the ad-supported tier. That rally ran into valuation concerns by June, with analyst downgrades and questions over subscriber momentum, margin durability, and execution on the ad strategy.
Technically, the stock has since carved out a descending channel. The latest breakdown from a corrective bear flag pattern points to risk of continuation toward the channel’s lower bound. This aligns with the broader scepticism around growth visibility and rising content costs, leaving the market reluctant to re-rate the stock higher at this stage.
Adobe | ADBE | Long at $347.44Adobe NASDAQ:ADBE
Technical Analysis:
Trend is, overall, moving sideways. The price gap on the daily chart between $303.29 and $317.87 is likely to be closed in the near-term. The stock may reach the $280's to $290's to form a double bottom before a move up, so short-term investors should note the near-term risks. Long-term, however, if growth projections are accurate, all of those price gaps above the current price are likely to be filled...
Earnings and Revenue Growth
Expected annual revenue growth between 2025-2028 is ~41% (cumulative), growing from around $23.7 billion in 2025 to $33.3 billion in 2028.
EPS growth from $20.7 in 2025 to $26.2 in 2028.
www.tradingview.com
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 0.53x (very good)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 10.2 (excellent/very low risk)
Quick Ratio/Ability to pay current bills: 1.02 (okay, but some risk)
Insiders
Warning: Selling heavily outweighs buying.
openinsider.com
Action
Due to the high-growth potential of NASDAQ:ADBE related to AI and its current "value" (compared purely to the rest of tech), solid health, etc., I am personally going long at $347.44. More shares will be gathered if the price reaches the low $300's or between $280-$300 and the fundamentals remain the same. Only major warning is the amount of insider selling.
Targets in 2028
$450.00 (+29.5%)
$645.00 (+85.6%)
52-Week High Effect📚 52-Week High Trading Strategy
1. Core Idea
Contrary to the “buy low, sell high” mantra, this strategy buys stocks making new 52-week highs.
Rationale: Momentum effect — stocks at or near new highs tend to keep outperforming, while those far from highs underperform.
Behavioral Explanation: Investors anchor to past highs → underreact to breakouts, leaving room for continued rallies.
2. What is the 52-Week High?
The highest closing price over the past 252 trading days (≈ 1 year).
52-week range = highest close vs lowest close in that period.
A new 52-week high signals market conviction, often accompanied by higher volume.
3. Academic Evidence (The “52-Week High Effect”)
Hong, Jordan & Liu (1963–2009 study):
Buying stocks near 52-week highs & shorting those far from highs produced ~0.60% monthly returns.
Strongest effect in high-beta industries and stocks with less informative prices.
Numerous studies confirm positive drift in high-52-week stocks, while buying 52-week lows is usually a losing strategy.
4. Key Findings
Short-Term (Days–Weeks)
Buying new 52-week highs = poor results in 5–10 day windows (mean reversion dominates short term).
Shorting new highs = also unprofitable.
Takeaway: Short-term trades off new highs don’t work well.
Medium–Long-Term (Months–Years)
Buying new 52-week highs with proper exits yields positive returns, similar to 2x ETFs.
Risk-adjusted returns improve when combined with trend filters (MAs, trailing stops).
Example exit rules:
Sell if stock closes below 200-day MA.
Sell on 20% trailing stop, 21 MA.
Sell on new 20-bar low.
Momentum Portfolio Approach
Rank stocks by distance to 52-week high.
Buy top 10 with equal weights (conditions: stock above 50-day MA, S&P 500 above 200-day MA).
Rebalance weekly/monthly.
Results: Outperformed S&P 500.
Index Application
50/200 Moving Average Cross on 52-Week High: Didn’t work well (weak signals).
Breakout Rule: Buy when 52-week high index/equity makes new 9-day high, sell when it makes 9-day low → more tradable, but still mixed performance.
5. Advantages
✅ Evidence-based: Supported by decades of academic research.
✅ Simple: Easy to screen and implement.
✅ Momentum aligned: Rides strong trends.
✅ Works best in diversified portfolio format.
6. Disadvantages
❌ Not great for short-term traders (breakouts often mean-revert in 5–10 days).
❌ High drawdowns possible (44%+ in tests).
❌ Underperforms in sideways/choppy markets.
❌ Requires risk controls (stops or trend filters).
7. How to Apply in Practice
Stock Picking
TradingView Screener: Price within 15~10% of 52-week high, above 50-day & 200-day MA.
Buy breakouts when supported by volume.
Use trailing stop or moving average exit. 9 or 21 MA.
For Mega-Caps, if they are near the 52-week low, then it's a buy signal. Example, AMD, etc.
Portfolio (Momentum Rotation)
Rank S&P 500 stocks by % off 52-week high.
Buy the top 10–20 strongest names.
Rebalance monthly/quarterly.
ETFs / Index Strategy
Use 52-week high rules on sector ETFs or SPY itself.
Works best when combined with breadth indicators (e.g., % of S&P 500 stocks making new highs).
8. Key Takeaway
The 52-week high strategy is a momentum approach:
Poor short-term, but effective long-term with proper filters.
Best results come from systematic portfolios rather than single discretionary trades.
Think of it less as “chasing” and more as “joining the strongest trends early.”
✅ In one line: The 52-week high strategy exploits investor underreaction by buying stocks near new highs — it works best as a long-term momentum portfolio with trend filters, not as a short-term breakout trade.
16,532% growth in just 37 days! A new star in the crypto world!MYX Finance: Understanding the Crypto Star that Soared Over 16,000%
BINANCE:MYXUSDT.P
In the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency, stories of incredible growth often capture our imagination. Recently, a new star has emerged, producing a truly breathtaking performance. In just 37 days, the MYX Finance token (MYX) experienced a massive price increase of over 16,532%. This kind of rocket launch makes everyone ask two simple questions: What is MYX Finance, and how did its price rise so fast?
This article is your guide to understanding this exciting story. We will explore what makes MYX Finance a special project in the crypto universe. Then, we will uncover the key reasons behind its recent, explosive growth. This is more than just a story about numbers; it’s a look into the innovation and energy that makes the world of digital finance so exciting.
Part 1: What is MYX Finance? A Simple Guide to a Powerful Platform
Before we understand why MYX grew so quickly, we first need to understand what it is. At its heart, MYX Finance is a new type of crypto trading platform designed to be powerful, fair, and easy for everyone to use.
The Best of Both Worlds - A New Kind of Crypto Market
In the crypto world, there are two main types of exchanges. Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) are like big, traditional banks. They are fast and easy to use, but you have to trust them to hold your money safely. Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are more like a community market. You always control your own money, but they can sometimes be slower and more complicated. MYX Finance combines the best features of both. It’s a DEX, so you always have control of your funds, but it’s designed to be as fast and easy to use as a CEX. It achieves this with a special system that lets trades happen instantly and with a feature they call “zero-slippage.”
The Magic of "Zero-Slippage"
Imagine you want to buy a crypto token for $100. On many platforms, by the time your order is processed, the price might have changed to $101. That $1 difference is called “slippage.” It can be very frustrating for traders. MYX Finance has built a system to eliminate this problem. Zero-slippage means the price you see when you click “buy” is the exact price you get. This makes trading fairer and more predictable, which is a huge advantage for traders of all levels.
More Than Just Trading - A Multi-Chain Universe
MYX isn't limited to just one blockchain. It operates across more than 20 different chains, including popular ones like Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Arbitrum. This means users can trade a huge variety of tokens without having to move their funds between different platforms, saving them time and money.
Part 2: The Perfect Storm: Four Key Catalysts for Explosive Growth
A 16,532% price increase doesn't happen by accident. It takes a “perfect storm” of technology, timing, and community excitement. For MYX, four main factors came together to create this incredible rally.
Excitement for the V2 Upgrade: Before the big price surge, there was a lot of positive talk in the MYX community about a major platform upgrade called V2. This upgrade promised to make the platform even better, faster, and more powerful, creating a strong foundation of positive sentiment.
Major Exchange Listings: The real explosion began when the MYX token was listed on popular crypto exchanges, especially Binance Alpha. This exposed the token to millions of new potential buyers. In one day, trading volume surged by 710%, reaching an incredible $354 million.
The "Short Squeeze": When the price started to rise, traders who had bet against the token (shorting) were forced to buy it back to cover their losses. This created a rapid buying frenzy called a “short squeeze.” In just 24 hours, over $14.6 million in these short positions were liquidated, adding even more fuel to the rally.
Industry Recognition and Awards: Finally, MYX Finance received a prestigious award from the BNB Chain, one of the biggest networks in crypto. They were named a “Volume Powerhouse,” which served as a powerful endorsement and gave new buyers more confidence in the project.
Part 3: The Big Picture - Why This Matters for Crypto
The story of MYX Finance is more than just one token's success; it shows us some important trends in the world of crypto.
Innovation Matters: MYX didn’t just grow because of hype; it grew because it offers a genuinely better trading experience with its zero-slippage feature. This shows that projects with strong technology can achieve incredible things.
The Power of Community: The excitement and support from the MYX community played a huge role in its success. In decentralized finance, a strong community is one of the most valuable assets a project can have.
Opportunity Still Exists: It reminds us that the crypto market is still young and full of opportunity. While there are always risks, stories like MYX show that there is still massive potential for growth.
Conclusion: Your Adventure in the World of Crypto Begins
The incredible 37-day journey of MYX Finance is a powerful reminder of how dynamic and exciting the world of digital assets can be. We’ve seen how a project with innovative technology, strong community support, and perfect timing can capture the attention of the entire market.
As the Founder of ForecastCity and the creator of the 4CastMachine AI software, my mission is to help traders navigate this exciting market with better tools and insights. The crypto world is full of opportunities like this one. To stay ahead of the curve and continue your learning journey, make sure to follow me! Let's explore the future of finance together.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is MYX Finance in one sentence?
MYX Finance is a next-generation decentralized exchange (DEX) that makes trading crypto fast, easy, and fair by offering zero-slippage trading across more than 20 different blockchains.
What does "zero-slippage" mean?
It means the price you see when you make a trade is the exact price you get, which prevents you from losing money to sudden price changes during your transaction.
Why did the MYX token price rise so fast?
It was a "perfect storm" of four main factors: excitement for a major platform upgrade (V2), listings on popular exchanges like Binance, a "short squeeze" that forced rapid buying, and a prestigious award from BNB Chain that boosted confidence.
Is MYX a good investment?
Like all cryptocurrencies, MYX is a high-risk, high-reward asset. Its recent performance has been incredible, but the market is very volatile. This article is for educational purposes, and you should always do your own research (DYOR) and assess your personal risk tolerance before investing.
For ongoing analysis and to discover more exciting projects in the crypto space, don't forget to follow me!
Trade Smart!
Navid Jafarian
Vimeo | VMEO | Long at $3.87Vimeo NASDAQ:VMEO provides a cloud-based platform for video creation, hosting, and sharing - primarily serving businesses, creators, and enterprises for professional video content management. While NASDAQ:VMEO has a **lot** of competition, it is a rather "healthy" company:
Debt-free (a rarity out there...)
Maintained profitability over the last twelve months, with a healthy gross profit margin of 78%
Earnings are forecast to grow 34.76% per year
[*}Revenue growth rate through 2027 is projected at 5.36% (modest)
Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $35 million, up from $25-30 million
Upcoming product developments, including AI-powered features and new SKUs, are expected to drive further growth
Insider bought over $868,000 in shares in the last year at an average price of $5.04
Subscriber growth is a concern...
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price is currently near the bottom of my historical simple moving average bands. This region is typically an area of consolidation. The two open price gaps below the current price on the daily chart (down to $3.38) will likely get closed in the near-term before a move up. I do believe this is a risky investment, though, given the competition and economic headwinds. I would not be surprised if the market flipped and took this down near or below $1... But, if one is going purely by what the company reports concerning fundamentals and general growth, this is an undervalued stock in the $3 range.
Thus, if the insider/company hype is true, NASDAQ:VMEO is in a personal buy zone at $3.87 - with near-term risk of the stock dropping to close the price gaps on the daily chart down to $3.38... or below.
Targets into 2028:
$5.00 (+29.2%)
$6.40 (+65.4%)
BABA 1D Time frame📊 Market Snapshot
Current Price: Around $146–147
Recent Trend: Strong upward momentum over the past weeks
Overall Technical Bias: Bullish, but nearing overbought
🔎 Technical Indicators
RSI (14-day): ~75 → Overbought zone, signals strong momentum but also risk of pullback.
MACD: Positive → Momentum remains bullish.
Stochastic & CCI: High readings → Also showing overbought conditions.
📈 Moving Averages
5-day MA: ~$146 → Bullish short-term support
10-day MA: ~$145 → Still bullish
20-day MA: ~$140 → Strong base level
50-day MA: ~$137 → Medium-term support
100-day MA: ~$130 → Long-term support
200-day MA: ~$125 → Major long-term support
All major moving averages are aligned bullishly.
🔧 Support & Resistance
Support Zone: ~$145–146
Resistance Zone: ~$147–150 (immediate), with potential toward $160 if breakout continues
📅 Outlook
Bullish Case: If price holds above ~$147, it could target $150+ and possibly $160.
Bearish Case: Overbought readings may trigger a pullback toward $145 or even $140.
Overall Bias: Bullish trend intact, but short-term consolidation or mild correction is possible.
BTC capped at 113.2k–115.2k: fade rallies, watch CPI__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is chopping in the low-110k, capped by a stacked 113.2k–115.2k supply zone, with macro headline risk elevated into CPI.
Momentum: 📉 Range with bearish tilt — upside attempts fail below 113.2k–114k while HTF pressure remains risk-off.
Key levels:
• Resistances (HTF/LTF) : 113.2k–113.4k (LTF/240 PH) · 114.5k–115.3k (HTF/720 PH) · 116.6k (recent high, HTF).
• Supports (HTF) : 111.9k–112.0k (W pivot) · 110.8k (240 PL) · 107.8k (D PL).
Volumes: Normal on HTF; “moderate” upticks on 1H–30m during failed breakouts.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H trend down; 4H–1H mixed with a hard cap at 113.2k–114k; 15m micro-bullish while 111.96k holds. Strong confluence at 113.2k → 115.2k resistance and 111.96k/110.77k/107.8k supports.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL SELL ; Global Risk Regime stays STRONG SELL — confirms the bearish bias and fades micro-rallies.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
As long as 113.2k–115.2k caps price, favor “sell the rip” and only buy on confirmed signals.
Global bias: SELL while below 115.24k; major short invalidation on daily > 116.6k.
Opportunities:
• Tactical short on 113.2k–114.0k rejection toward 112.0k/111.0k; inval. above 115.3k.
• Breakout long only on H1/H4 acceptance > 113.3k (retest holds) toward 114.6k/115.24k; inval. below 111.9k.
• Defensive long on clean reaction at 110.8k or 107.8k if risk blocks improve (≥ NEUTRAL BUY on LTF).
Risk zones / invalidations: Break < 110,77k voids defensive longs (opens 107.8k); H4/D12 close > 115.24k voids range shorts (opens squeeze to 116.6k).
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): CPI next (direct vol around 111k–112k pivot) · Geopolitics (NATO Article 4; Middle East) supports risk-off · US tariff path (SCOTUS) preserves trade-policy uncertainty.
Action plan:
• Fade-rally short : Entry 113.2k–114.0k / Stop 115.3k / TP1 112.0k · TP2 111.0k · TP3 110.8k / R:R ~1.8–2.5.
• Breakout long : Entry > 113.3k (confirmed retest) / Stop 111.9k / TP1 114.6k · TP2 115.24k · TP3 116.6k / R:R ~1.6–2.2.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs remain bearish while LTFs attempt extensions under a dense overhead supply.
1D/12H/6H: Downtrend, rallies capped below 113.2k–115.2k; dominant supply, supports layered at 111.96k → 110.77k → 107.8k.
4H/2H/1H: Mixed reads; need a clean close > 113.24k to open 114.6k–115.24k, otherwise frequent fades back to 111.96k.
30m/15m: 30m cautious (STRONG SELL) vs 15m micro-bullish (NEUTRAL BUY); classic pre-catalyst divergence — wait for H1/H4 confirmations.
Confluence/Divergence: Heavy multi-TF supply 113.2k → 115.2k; risk-on equities vs risk-off credit/crypto warns against chasing crypto bounces.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is mixed (gold ATH, firm oil, US equities buoyed by cut hopes) while geopolitics heats up and CPI looms.
Macro events: CPI imminently (sets risk tone) · NATO Article 4/Middle East tensions (risk premia higher) · US tariff track (SCOTUS) sustains uncertainty.
Bitcoin analysis: 100–1k BTC cohorts accumulating, 1k–10k distributing — potential cap on impulsive upside; ETF flows cooling, consistent with consolidation below 114k–116k.
On-chain data: Activity skewed by inscriptions/runes; sentiment in “fear” (44/100) implies positioning not crowded long.
Expected impact: Range-to-down bias while < 113.3k–115.2k; a benign CPI could trigger a push > 113.3k toward 114.6k/115.24k.
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Key Takeaways
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The market stalls under multi-TF supply as key catalysts approach.
- Overall trend: 📉 bearish on HTF; LTFs try but stall below 113.2k–114k.
- Best setup: Fade 113.2k–114.0k into CPI with active management.
- Key macro: CPI and geopolitics drive the global risk regime.
Stay disciplined around the 111.9k–112.0k pivot and let confirmation lead exposure. ⚠️
Atlassian Corp | TEAM | Long at $180.12Atlassian Corp NASDAQ:TEAM
Technical Analysis:
Currently trading withing my historical simple moving average zone (i.e. reversion to the mean). This area is typically reserved for share accumulation. Many gaps above to close (as high as $420.80. I anticipate the price to stairstep up over the next few years as the company moves to AI.
Earnings and Revenue Growth
3x EPS growth by 2028 and revenue growth from ~$5 billion to ~$9 billion.
www.tradingview.com
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 0.73x (good)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 6.8 (excellent/very low risk)
Insiders
Warning: Tremendous amount of selling.
openinsider.com
Action
Due to the high-growth potential of NASDAQ:TEAM and solid health, I am personally going long at $180.12. Only major warning is the amount of insider selling.
Targets in 2028
$223.00 (+23.8%)
$380.00 (+111.0%)
SUNDARAM FINANCE HOLDINGSSundaram Finance Holdings Ltd. (currently trading at ₹522) is a strategic investment and business services company under the TSF Group umbrella. It holds long-term stakes in leading auto component manufacturers such as Wheels India, Turbo Energy, and Sundaram Clayton, while also operating a 100% subsidiary—Sundaram Business Services—that provides outsourced processing and support services to domestic and global clients. The company’s portfolio spans 18 entities across manufacturing, engineering, and distribution, contributing to a combined revenue base of ₹21,000 Cr and over 42,000 employees.
Sundaram Finance Holdings Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot
• Sales – ₹85 Cr → ₹91 Cr → ₹291 Cr → ₹155 Cr Volatile topline due to timing of dividend flows and stake monetization
• Net Profit – ₹161 Cr → ₹238 Cr → ₹533 Cr → ₹412 Cr Earnings surge driven by portfolio revaluation and dividend income
• Operating Performance – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong High OPM due to asset-light structure and investment leverage
• Dividend Yield (%) – 1.10% → 1.20% → 1.23% → 1.30% Healthy payouts aligned with cash flow visibility
• Equity Capital – ₹111.10 Cr (constant) No dilution; lean capital structure
• Total Debt – ₹0 Cr (debt-free) Fully equity-financed operations
• Fixed Assets – ₹45 Cr → ₹48 Cr → ₹39 Cr → ₹162 Cr Capex linked to business services expansion and digital infra
Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends
Promoter holding stands at 62.00%, with no pledging. FIIs and DIIs have selectively accumulated post FY24 earnings breakout and dividend visibility. Delivery volumes reflect long-term positioning by auto-linked and dividend-focused funds.
Business Growth Verdict
Sundaram Finance Holdings is scaling across auto investments and business services Margins remain strong due to asset-light structure and dividend leverage Debt-free status enhances flexibility and payout potential Capex supports long-term service expansion and digital capabilities
Management Con Call
Management emphasized strategic pivot toward active investments and monetizable stakes in high-growth auto component firms. Sundaram Business Services expanded client base in Australia and the Middle East, contributing 20% to topline. FY26 outlook includes stable dividend flows, selective stake monetization, and 15–18% growth in business services revenue.
Final Investment Verdict
Sundaram Finance Holdings Ltd. offers a unique hybrid story combining strategic auto investments with scalable business services. Its improving profitability, zero debt, and consistent dividend profile make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking exposure to India’s auto ecosystem.