All Time Highs on the Horizon!!!Price is on a Bullish Up trend In a Current Retracement.
This Thesis uses several different concepts. Based off of Market structure, support & resistance, RSI Divergence, Fib lvl's, ICT Concepts,
Daily: Bullish, Price is Rejecting Bullish TL and Testing structure , 61.8 prz (Daily Breaker Block forming)
H4: Bullish, Morning star R Pattern at H4 lvl
H1: Bearish (Wait for price action to return Bullish before entering)
Thesis:
Looking for price to bullish break H4 lvl to order block
and retest back to daily lvl 20595 / previous structure high zone, for bullish entry.
Notes:
price has a overall retracement 61.8 prz
Price rejecting off bullish Trend line
Price rejecting 4H FVG
H4 Hidden Bullish Divergence
Daily Bullish Breaker Block
Cons:
-4H could be a Head and shoulders Pattern if price rejects and doesn't break through Daily lvl 20595
Wait for H1 Time frame and Execution time frames to line up with macro Bullish Trend before Executing!
TP1: 21,150
TP2: 21,468 (ATH)
TP3: 22,242 Stretch Goal (ATH)
Indices
NAS100USD / TRADING UNDER ATH PRICES AROUND 21,520 / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Breaking the supply zone is expected to lead to an increase in prices, potentially reaching a new all-time high (ATH) , The current price is trading below the ATH level at 21,512.
If the price remains and stabilizes below 21,512, it is expected to decline further , The first expected demand zone is between 21,226 and 21,107 , If the price closes a 4-hour candle below this zone, it is anticipated to decline to the next demand zone between 20,863 and 20,762.
If the ATH level (21,512) is broken, prices are expected to rise and reach a new historical zone between 21,520 and 21,890.
As long as the price remains below the ATH, the market is expected to face downward pressure.
US30 / TRADING A RANGE BETWEEN 45,100 AND 44,468 / 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The Dow Jones is trading between 45,100 (resistance) and 44,468 (support) , Prices are under upward pressure, but remain below the all-time high (ATH) of 45,100.
If prices fail to stabilize above 45,100, a decline is expected toward the lower support at 44,468,If prices break below 44,468, the decline could continue further into a demand zone between 43,960 and 43,719.
If prices break and stabilize above 45,100 (ATH), an increase is expected toward a new historical zone between 45,490 and 45,890.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index demonstrated a consistent and measured sleepwalking upward trajectory towards our target of Outer Index Rally 6123, with potential for further advancement to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the target of 6123 is anticipated to result in a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6049, thereby facilitating the next phase of the bullish trend.
Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some
carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride!
* I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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NAS100USD / TRADING UNDER SUPPLYZONE / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Downward Pressure: Prices are currently trading under a bearish (downward) trend.
Supply Zones , Between 20,860 & 20,920 and 21,037 & 21,112: These zones are acting as resistance levels where selling pressure is high, preventing prices from rising further.
Demand Zone , Between 20,559 & 20,354: This is identified as a support level where buying interest might increase, potentially halting further price decline.
Possible Scenarios:
If prices remain below the supply zones, further decline toward the demand zone is expected , If prices break above the supply zones, it suggests an increase toward ,The all-time high (ATH) around 21,260 , A strong supply zone between 21,175 & 21,260.
Overall Outlook , The text emphasizes the bearish trend unless resistance levels are broken.
S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days.
Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025.
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US30 - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure.
We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower).
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Bullish bounce?US30 is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 44,513.84
1st Support: 44,077.45
1st Resistance: 45,165.67
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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated significant upward movement, successfully retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and maintaining its position above the Mean Resistance level of 6008. The primary objective is to reach the Outer Index Rally target of 6123, with the potential for further extension to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the Outer Index Rally target of 6123 is projected to induce a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6000, facilitating the bullish trend's next phase.
DOW JONES: A few days of consolidation can push it to 46,100Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.114, MACD = 449.010, ADX = 35.064) and is printing a sequence much like post September 20th. That was a consolidation Channel that paved the way to the next bullish wave on the 1.5 Fib extension. This is a 4 month Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. As long as it does, aim for the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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NAS100USD / SAME DOWNTREND YESERDAY / 4HUSNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The price has already declined by 300 pips (a pip is a standard unit in financial markets, often used in forex trading to measure price changes).
The price is currently attempting to reach 20,908 and 20,990. These are likely resistance levels, meaning points where the price might struggle to break through.
If the price remains below 20,908–20,990, a further decline is expected. The targets mentioned for this decline are:
• 20,668
• 20,451
If the price breaks above 20,990, it could increase to reach 21,105.
The price is still below the All-Time High (ATH), and the general expectation is for further declines unless the resistance levels are breached.
NAS100USD / OVERALL DIRECTION TOWARDS DOWNWARD /4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Trend:
• Prices are under downward pressure as they remain below the resistance level of 20,839.
• The market appears to be consolidating or stabilizing around this level, preparing for a potential move.
Upward Scenario:
• If prices remain below 20,839, it is suggested that they may decline further:
• First target: 20,666 (support level).
• Further decline to 20,451 (next major support).
Downward Scenario:
• If the price breaks above 20,839 (the resistance level), it could lead to a rally:
• Initial target: 21,105.
• Further move to 21,249, which is identified as the All-Time High (ATH).
US30 / UNDER GDP NEWS / 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
As long as prices remain below the All-Time High (ATH) and confirm the downward trend observed yesterday, the market continues to trade under downward pressure. If prices fail to break above the Adjusted Resistance High (ARH) at 44,950, they are likely to decline further toward 44,514 and 44,170, with a key support level at 43,817. Conversely, breaking above the ATH could suggest a move toward new historical peaks. Overall, the current market is trading within a bearish framework.
ASX 200 futures could tease bears at these highsThe ASX 200 futures market has struggled to retest 8500, after a brief and uninspiring spell above it. Overnight gains on Tuesday were seen on low volumes, and Wall Street indices have provided a weak lead today. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily and 1-hour chart.
While prices have rebounded from the weekly pivot point, price action looks corrective. Hence the bias for it being a corrective channel that could break to the downside.
If we see prices rise at the open, I am on guard for it being a 'last hurrah", which could make it a suitable market to fade into with a stop above the record high. The weekly pivot (8390), weekly VPOC (8348) and weekly S1 around 8300 make viable downside targets for bears.
MS
Nasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic DataNasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data
The Nasdaq index experienced a slight decline of 0.9% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior.
US Economic Data Highlights
- **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions.
- **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion.
- **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%.
- **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods.
- **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the Nasdaq, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets.
Rate Cut Expectations
Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain.
Geopolitical Risks
While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability.
Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist
The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments.
Broader Context
Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising:
- **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%.
- **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets.
Implications for Nasdaq
The Nasdaq’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term.
Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction.
What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025.
Levels to watch: $26.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
US30 / UNDER CPI PRESSURE / 4HUS30 /4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The analysis begins by noting a profitable decline of 590 pips, indicating that the asset has experienced a significant downward movement recently, which has been profitable for traders taking short positions.
The price is approaching an FVG zone between 43,381 and 42,984. A Fair Value Gap typically represents an area where the price may experience consolidation, or a period of sideways movement, before it makes a decision to either move higher or lower.
If consolidation occurs within the FVG, the price may rise toward a supply zone (44,252 to 44,532), which suggests a resistance area where selling pressure could occur, preventing the price from moving higher.
The analysis highlights a bearish sentiment, meaning the overall expectation is for the price to continue moving downward unless there is a breakout above the supply zone , If the price fails to stabilize above the FVG, further decline is expected. The target for this decline is a support zone between 42,716 and 42,335, where buyers might enter, potentially halting the downward move.
The downward pressure is noted as the dominant force unless the price manages to break above the supply zone ,Traders will need to watch whether the asset stabilizes within the FVG, as this will determine whether the bearish trend continues or a reversal occurs.
SPY 11/22 PlanUntil we are able to break above the trendline, We will continue to chop
Look at where they closed yesterday, right at it, and rejected.
We have to be patient, the move will come...
One thing to notice though was the retest of the trendline, as of now the retest was able to close above the trendline, but we need to see volume coming in for this move to happen.
If we go below 592 again, i believe we retest 589 fast.