Iran
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals.
US Election Impact:
Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure.
Price Trends:
Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds.
Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 .
Medium-term trend:
Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 .
Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top
Submillennium 1
Grand Supercycle 5 - green
Supercycle 1
Cycle 5 - orange
Primary 5 - blue
Intermediate 5 - pink
Minor 5 - yellow
Minute 5 - green
I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory.
First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart.
My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9.
My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins.
My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come.
This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below:
Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top.
This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
Crude Oil Technical Analysis - October OutlookCrude oil is showing a notable recovery from its recent lows, currently trading around the $72 mark. A few key observations based on the price action and indicators:
Price Pattern and Trend:
The chart shows a classic descending wedge pattern, which signals a potential bullish reversal. The breakout from the wedge is accompanied by a price surge above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a short-term trend change.
Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support : Around $70.64, marked by the breakout level.
Strong Support : At $68.23, where significant buying interest has been observed in the past, reinforced by a bullish consolidation zone.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: $72.11, which has been tested, with potential room for the price to move higher if momentum sustains.
Critical Resistance : $77.23, which coincides with a strong historical supply zone. A close above this level would signal further bullish momentum
.
Volume Profile Insight:
A noticeable shift in the volume profile near the $70 mark suggests accumulation by institutional investors, hinting that buyers are stepping in to defend this level.
RSI Indicator
: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back from oversold levels and is now showing early signs of positive divergence, supporting the case for an upward move.
Geopolitical Factors:
With rising tensions in the Middle East, as highlighted in the annotation, traders and investors are pricing in potential supply disruptions, contributing to the recent spike in oil prices.
Conclusion:
Oil prices may continue to rise in the short term, with $72.11 being a key level to watch. If sustained above this, the next target would be $77.23. However, if prices fall back below $70, we could see a retest of support at $68.23. Given the geopolitical uncertainty, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility.
$20 Spike if Israel Hits Iran’s Oil? The Israeli military warned that its response to Iran’s missile attack would be “serious and significant,” as Goldman Sachs forecasted that oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iranian production is disrupted.
Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, stated on Friday that a "sustained drop of 1 million barrels per day" in Iranian output could lead to a peak increase of $20 per barrel next year, assuming OPEC+ does not immediately boost production, which typically requires time to implement. However, if key OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE step in to offset some of the supply loss, the price impact could be more moderate—around $10 per barrel, Struyven added.
Goldman did not offer a specific price forecast if Israel were to target Iran's nuclear facilities, a scenario raised after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested such a strike was appropriate to recent missile activity from Tehran.
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices?
Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply.
Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport.
At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets.
USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel.
If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel.
On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
WTI: Will Iran drag Saudi into conflict? Israeli officials are considering how to respond after an Iranian missile strike on Wednesday, which caused little damage, but definitely had the potential to do so.
Their next steps could depend on the U.S. stance. President Joe Biden reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel but made it clear on Wednesday that he would not support Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Oil prices have already jumped 5% after Biden mentioned discussions about possible Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil industry. Iran, the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, exports about half of its oil, mainly to China.
If tensions escalate into a broader conflict, Iran it is expected to draw Israel’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia (an even larger oil producer than Iran) and Jordan, into the confrontation.
Bitcoin Slips Amid Israel-Iran ConflictBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) faced a sharp drop on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, triggering a significant sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. Investors, seeking refuge in safer assets, moved towards bonds, gold, oil, and the US Dollar, leaving Bitcoin and altcoins under heavy selling pressure. Despite historically strong performance in October, this sudden market disruption has put the cryptocurrency’s best month under early threat.
Geopolitical Tensions Cause Sharp Sell-off
The price of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) fell by 3.16%, reaching $61,715 levels. Altcoins, including Ethereum, suffered even more, plunging between 5-10% as the war tension escalated following Iran’s launch of over 200 ballistic missiles on Israel. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), which historically has seen an average gain of 25.81% in October, is now struggling to maintain its bullish seasonal trend, dropping by 4% in the first two days of the month.
Sean McNulty, director of trading at Arbelos Markets, described the drop as a "momentary setback," stating that October's favorable trends for Bitcoin are "alive and well." However, the broader market is expected to stay on edge as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises retaliation. Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $242 million, breaking an eight-day streak of inflows.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) appears weak but is beginning to show signs of recovery. After testing the critical $60,000 support level, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has rebounded 0.75% in Wednesday’s market session, trading at $61,715. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 47.49, reflecting neutral conditions but indicating a slight bearish tendency.
Bitcoin’s recent recovery, however, may be short-lived if geopolitical instability persists. The critical $65,000 resistance level remains a barrier to any significant upward movement, and a failure to break through could see Bitcoin revisiting $57,000, as some analysts predict.
Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s historical behavior post-Fed rate cuts could lead to a larger correction. If the pattern holds, the cryptocurrency could drop further before resuming its upward trajectory, targeting a potential low of $50,000 by mid-November.
Safe Haven Shift & Mining Pressure
The conflict in the Middle East has driven investors to flock to safe-haven assets, causing a temporary withdrawal from riskier assets like Bitcoin. The flight to safety has boosted the US Dollar, bonds, oil, and gold, while applying downward pressure on the broader crypto market.
Additionally, a report by JPMorgan highlighted declining revenues among Bitcoin mining companies, with September seeing the lowest levels recorded in recent months. This drop in miner profitability could trigger another wave of selling pressure if the mining sector experiences further capitulation, exacerbating the downward trend in Bitcoin’s price.
Despite the current challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. McNulty and others believe that as tensions in the Middle East cool down, Bitcoin’s historical performance in October could lead to a rally that pushes the cryptocurrency back towards its all-time high (ATH) of $73,000.
Historical Trends & Future Projections: Uptober Rally in Jeopardy?
Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has enjoyed an average 25.81% gain in October when preceded by a green September. In line with this, data from BTC Archive suggests Bitcoin could surge to as high as $80,500 this month, as the crypto has consistently posted green candles in the last three months of the year.
Similarly, trading firm QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin has seen a 22.9% gain in eight out of the last nine Octobers. If this trend continues, BTC could rise to $78,000 or higher. However, for this to happen, Bitcoin will need to clear crucial resistance levels and weather any additional shocks from ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
Analysts have also pointed out that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong, and perp funding rates are approaching levels reminiscent of the early 2023 bull run. If these inflows persist, Bitcoin could see the support needed to break through to new highs before the year ends.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has the potential to rally to new highs this month, the path will be far from straightforward. The Israel-Iran conflict, coupled with macroeconomic factors such as the US PMI data and Fed rate cuts, could create further volatility in the market. Still, Bitcoin's technical and fundamental strength may help it weather the storm and rebound toward its ATH as the year progresses.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is trading at $61,715, up 0.73%, with momentum beginning to build for a potential rebound if market conditions stabilize. However, investors should remain cautious, as further geopolitical shocks could lead to more downward pressure in the short term.
TA35 / ISRAEL / TEL AVIV INDEXTA-35 (Tel Aviv 35 Index) Analysis:
Key Dates and Potential Market Movements:
1. September 2, 2024 - Potential Trigger for Conflict:
• Scenario: As we approach early September, particularly the 2nd of September, the chart suggests the potential for a significant market event. Given the current geopolitical climate in Israel, this date could coincide with an escalation in military conflict or a critical political decision.
• Impact on Price: A surge in tension could lead to increased market volatility, causing the TA-35 to experience a sharp downturn as investors react to the heightened risks.
• Reflection: In times of uncertainty and conflict, it is vital to seek peace and guidance from a higher power. As Psalm 46:1 reminds us, “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble.”
2. September 5, 2024 - Continued Market Volatility:
• Scenario: Just a few days later, on September 5, 2024, the market may continue to react to ongoing developments. If the conflict escalates, we could see a prolonged period of instability, impacting both the local and global markets.
• Impact on Price: The TA-35 could face additional downward pressure, potentially testing support levels, as investors weigh the long-term implications of the conflict.
• Reflection: As the world watches the unfolding events, let us remember to pray for peace and for the safety of all those affected by the conflict. Matthew 5:9 says, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.”
3. September 25, 2024 - Potential Resolution or Further Escalation:
• Scenario: By late September, specifically around the 25th, there may be signs of either a de-escalation or further intensification of the conflict. This period could see significant diplomatic efforts or, conversely, an escalation that could extend the market volatility.
• Impact on Price: Depending on the situation, the TA-35 might either stabilize or continue its downward trend. A resolution could lead to a recovery in the market, while further conflict could prolong the downturn.
• Reflection: In the midst of turmoil, it is essential to keep faith and hope alive. As Isaiah 40:31 encourages us, “But those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint.”
4. December 10, 2024 - Market Recovery Phase:
• Scenario: Looking ahead to December, the chart suggests a potential recovery phase. This could be driven by a resolution of the conflict, a stabilization of the political situation, or an easing of global tensions.
• Impact on Price: If the situation improves, the TA-35 could experience a rebound, with investors regaining confidence and pushing the index higher.
• Reflection: As the market begins to recover, let this serve as a reminder that even in the darkest times, there is always hope for renewal. Psalm 30:5 says, “Weeping may stay for the night, but rejoicing comes in the morning.”
5. April 6, 2025 - Long-Term Outlook:
• Scenario: By April 2025, the chart indicates a potential for long-term stability and growth. This could be the result of sustained peace and economic recovery in Israel and the broader region.
• Impact on Price: If the positive momentum continues, the TA-35 might reach new highs, reflecting the resilience of the market and the nation.
• Reflection: As we look forward to the future, let us remain steadfast in our faith, trusting that God has a plan for peace and prosperity. Jeremiah 29:11 reminds us, “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.”
Considerations for Investors:
• Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing conflict in Israel is a significant factor that could impact market stability. Investors should stay informed and be prepared for increased volatility.
• Economic and Diplomatic Developments: Any progress towards a peaceful resolution or significant diplomatic initiatives could positively influence the market.
• Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, Israel’s strong economic fundamentals and innovation-driven industries could drive long-term growth.
As we navigate these challenging times, how are you preparing your investment strategy? Are you considering both the risks and the opportunities that may arise in the coming months? And most importantly, how does your faith guide you in times of uncertainty?
4 Political Tensions Fueling Gold Prices As gold aims to test record high again, let's look at some of the political issues possibly driving the price action.
Iran Tensions Escalate:
The Pentagon has dispatched a guided missile submarine and a carrier strike group, to the Middle East. This move follows Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last month. With nearly two weeks passing without a retaliation, the atmosphere remains tense.
US Political Landscape:
A recent New York Times/Siena poll places Vice President Kamala Harris, who is on a swing state tour, ahead of former President Donald Trump by four points in key battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, with nearly three months left until the election, the race remains fluid. Trump is set to appear in an interview with Elon Musk on the X platform, looking for a shift in momentum.
US Economic Concerns:
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned that U.S. consumers might become “dispirited” if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts. He emphasized that once consumer sentiment turns negative, recovery becomes challenging. However, Moynihan acknowledged that Bank of America no longer anticipates a recession.
Ukraine’s Military Advance:
Ukraine’s top military commander reported control over 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s neighboring Kursk region, with Russia evacuating over 76,000 residents from western Kursk. Russia is now evacuating residents from a second border region as Ukraine's surprise week-long offensive within Russian territory intensifies.
Fears Fail to Keep Gold Above $2,400: A Temporary Dip? Gold has slipped below the $2,400 mark even as geopolitical tensions possibly escalate, with Israel bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. US intelligence indicates the response could come late Thursday or Friday.
Market attention is also directed towards the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims data, due on Thursday, which investors hope will provide further information about the labor market.
Perhaps in an attempt to calm the volatility seen at the beginning of the week, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday that “none of the labor market indicators she looks at are flashing red at present ...”.
Perhaps adding to the downward pressure on gold, major Asian central banks appear to have paused their physical gold buying sprees. Reports from the World Gold Council indicate that China has abstained from buying the precious metal for the third consecutive month.
Technically, if the XAU/USD continues its downward trajectory, the next support level could lay at the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average. Further declines could test the May 3 low of $2,277.
Bitcoin Could Drop to $51,000! Maybe 43,000!
After a recent 20% decline to $49,000, Bitcoin is currently trading above $57,000, but it might decrease to $51,000. The key support level is $53,500. Bitcoin is again caught in a bearish technical pattern; a closing bullish channel!
There are also rumors of a potential attack by Iran on Israel either tonight or tomorrow, which could drive Bitcoin down to $43,000 and cause another market downturn. However, this might potentially result in a positive divergence in the RSI.
Although there is still optimism about the CME gap in the market, the risks outweigh the optimism significantly.
In the current situation, if you don’t have a high risk tolerance, you might consider reducing some of your investment at this level. If you still have liquidity, you can dollar-cost average (DCA) into altcoins during potential dips.
Pay close attention to btcWith the fed meeting saying that rates will remain unchanged i think this is bullish for the DXY and it goes opposite with btc too, considering that and the fact that we got rejected on 70k with a hard rejection, furthermore we might need to consider additional things.
Geo politics can have a great impact on BTC as we have seen how it dipped when iran responded previously.
Now that the prominent hamas head has been killed in iranian soil, iran is bound to strike back as revenge and this time it will be far worse.
my advice is to sell your holdings and buy the dip for a better position onwards.
Good luck!!
Gold trade with Israel-Iran in Focus Gold temporarily surged past $2,474 per ounce on Friday, marking a new record high, as a weak U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations of a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the anticipated 175,000 increase.
Gold prices have since pulled back slightly but are still trading just above the 100-hour moving average. Analysts foresee potential for another upward trend toward $2,490, though the MACD indicator, with its signal line crossing the MACD level, may suggest otherwise.
Meanwhile, heightened tensions in the Middle East have continued to drive demand for safe-haven assets. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated with a strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, resulting in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers.
Subsequently, the Israeli military reported killing a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, prompting several countries to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon amid fears of a broader regional conflict.
In a further development, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran while attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed a “harsh punishment” for Israel in response.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the situation as a “multi-front war” with Iran and its proxies. The recent assassinations have likely undermined efforts to reach a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Gold maintains upward bias on Iran and Fed speak? Gold maintains upward bias on Iran and Fed speak?
Gold surged at the beginning of the week due to escalating geopolitical tensions, reaching a new all-time high of $2,450. However, it has since retreated slightly but perhaps maintains an upward bias.
The rise in gold prices could have been fueled by news of the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a helicopter crash. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that he did not foresee any broader impact on regional security. Although, according to Sky News there are concerns that groups within Iran, including an offshoot of Islamic State, might attempt to exploit the situation. Mohammad Mokhber has been declared Iran's interim president.
Despite the initial surge, improving market sentiment caused XAU/USD to erase most of its daily gains, but it remains above $2,400. Further downside could see key support levels come into play like Friday’s low of $2,374 and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,340. If geopolitical concerns intensify, gold could rise further, with $2,500 serving as a psychological resistance level. Technically, gold is moving away from overbought conditions, which could attract buyers and support further gains.
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that his forecast for the Fed’s interest-rate policy remains unchanged, expecting one rate cut in the October-December quarter. Vice Chair Michael Barr echoed this sentiment, stating that the Fed should maintain steady interest rates, citing disappointing CPI data from Q1 as a reason for caution.
Why Bitcoin's Halving Won't Save You if the Economy Goes Down As we navigate through an increasingly volatile economic landscape, similarities between the current market behavior and the period preceding the COVID-19 market crash have begun to surface, particularly concerning Bitcoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ). This analysis delves into these parallels and discusses why the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not be the safety net investors hope for if a major economic downturn occurs.
Historical Insights: The 2020 Pre-Halving Crash
Back in early 2020, just before Bitcoin's much-anticipated halving, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its most drastic crashes. Bitcoin's value plummeted by 41% in a single day, underscoring the rapid sentiment shift among investors from greed to fear. Notably, our Trend Model had signaled an exit from the market two weeks prior to this crash, prompted not by foreknowledge of the pandemic but by bearish behaviour on Bitcoin.
At the time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at a mere 39 out of 100, highlighting a market driven by fear— suggesting an oversold market.
Current Market Conditions and Sentiment
Fast forward to today, the echoes of the past resonate as the same indices and models show similar ominous signs. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the risk of major conflicts looming, our Trend Model recently signalled another exit.
Interestingly, the current market sentiment, with a Fear and Greed Index score of 72, indicates a stark contrast: traders remain optimistic despite the negative price trends—a risky disconnect that could precede significant market corrections.
Major market influencers continue to advocate bullish perspectives, with some viewing market dips as buying opportunities and others speculating about market manipulations linked to new ETF launches in Hong Kong. The general consensus among these influencers is that the impending halving will bolster Bitcoin prices. However, a closer look at historical data and market behavior suggests otherwise.
The Halving: A Misunderstood Phenomenon
The halving certainly impacts Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, theoretically increasing scarcity. However, the effect is neither immediate nor strong enough to counteract significant market downturns. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices didn’t soar; instead, they entered a prolonged period of stagnation lasting 72 days.
This historical precedent illustrates that halving does not inherently create upward price pressure but rather contributes to a slow, often muted, impact on the market.
Technical Analysis and Future Predictions
Applying Fibonacci Retracement to the current weekly Bitcoin charts suggests potential price corrections with levels possibly dipping between $38,000 and $45,000. Further analysis through the Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model indicates that Bitcoin is currently overbought. A retracement to $45,000 would align with this model’s estimation of Bitcoin's fair value.
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with Data
While the hope for a market recovery persists, relying on the halving to safeguard Bitcoin investments in a turbulent economy is misguided. Our historical data and trend analysis underline the importance of cautious and informed trading strategies. Just as our model successfully predicted exits before major market crashes, including the COVID-19 downturn, Luna crash, and FTX collapse, it continues to guide us through these uncertain times.
Investors would do well to remember that external factors such as geopolitical developments or economic crises can dwarf the effects of the halving, leading to sharp price declines. In this context, understanding and respecting the data’s warning signs is crucial for navigating the markets effectively, ensuring that decisions are based on insight rather than optimism.
XAUUSD - Political Tension Cool down
Fundamental
Gold make a big drop on Monday, due to the cool down of political tension in Gaza and Ukraine.
Technical
Gold is approaching the 2300 level. This is psychological round number level. Buyer will enter at this level .
Below is SMA 200 , lie at the 2250 level. If support level 2300 broken, this level will be test.
DAX bears lose control following Israel's retaliationThe DAX dropped following the news that Israel retaliated for Iran's attack over the weekend. However, the bears seem to have lost control, with the hourly charge at a crossroads.
The longer-term path shows a series of lower peaks followed by lower troughs. This suggests that the current up-leg may be an exploitable rally in the downtrend.
The DAX hourly chart is showing signs of support. However, the daily chart is still under pressure.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Bitcoin Halving PregameWhat are our thoughts on Bitcoin and the overall market/market sentiment? I have too many words right now for the markets. So many things converging as far as the dollar, rates, equities, and crypto.
This chart is gorgeous and I love seeing the false breakdown over the Iran/Israel headlines. The bullish divergence on the RSI is also lovely.
The SPY has finally filled a CME gap back from February. I think we will see a bottom begin to form from here, and whether or not this is the end of the downtrend remains to be seen. I think the probabilities of one more leg down are decent, but same with this being the end of the bear.
PS: Elon Musk just tweeted a photo of a missile heading straight up.. and I'm not so sure it had anything to do with war ;)
Gold technical analysis amid Iran-Israel uncertainty Gold hovers around the $2,370, with trading range relatively narrow as investors closely monitor updates on the Iran-Israel conflict.
Israel's stance on retaliating against Iran revolves not around whether but when and how to strike back. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's Finance Minister, advocates for a response that would impose a "disproportionate toll" on Iran, aiming to "shake Tehran" and deter future attacks. While any retaliation risks escalating the situation towards a broader conflict in the Middle East and a more profound global crisis, there's a lingering hope that Iran's reluctance for an all-out war, evidenced by their quick de-escalation following their recent attack, might mitigate the risk.
Gold demonstrates resilience despite robust economic data from the US, suggesting that the current bull market isn't solely influenced by conventional macroeconomic factors.
On the XAU/USD chart, a downward movement might necessitate testing the previous all-time high of $2,300 to consider a substantial reversal. However, the broader bullish sentiment could appear to persist, supported by the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) sliding below 50 and the Momentum indicator showing a downward trend above its midpoint.
The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) possibly maintains a firmly bullish trajectory at approximately $2,281, sitting comfortably above the also bullish 100 SMA by roughly $200.
⭐️ XAU/USD - WAR's effect on the $GOLD Price (IMPORTANT) Weekly Gold Market Analysis
Upon examining the gold chart on a weekly basis, it was observed that last Friday marked a significant surge in gold prices. This increase was triggered by the announcement of a potential Iranian attack on Israel, propelling the price to $2431.
Price Fluctuations and Corrections
However, the ascent was short-lived, and the price underwent a sharp decline. In less than four hours, gold experienced a correction exceeding 1000 pips, eventually settling at $2344 by the market’s close.
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events
The anticipated attack materialized on Sunday morning, leading to speculations of a price hike when the market reopened. As predicted, Monday saw gold’s value climb from $2344 to $2372. Despite this, the growth was modest, largely because the market had already factored in the news to a considerable degree on Thursday, resulting in diminished tensions.
The Lingering Threat of Conflict
Investors are advised to exercise caution as the specter of war continues to loom over the market. The coming days may witness escalating tensions, potentially driving gold prices higher.
Technical Outlook and Price Projections
It is crucial to monitor the $2404 threshold. Should the price fail to breach this level and instead retreat towards the $2200 channel, with the weekly candle closing within this range, there could be a further downturn in gold prices.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban