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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause 💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures 🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks ⚠️ July Risks Loom The coming week will spotlight: July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3 Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 30 9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity 📅 Tuesday, July 1 U.S. markets open, watch trade developments 📅 Wednesday, July 2 Global PMI readings released 📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day) 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June) 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June) 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June) These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Elliott Wave StructureIn this video, we analyze the weekly chart of Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT ) using Elliott Wave theory. The current structure suggests the beginning of a new bullish impulse (waves 0, 1, and 2) following a clearly completed and technically correct corrective phase. We explore potential impulsive scenarios starting from wave 2, using Fibonacci extensions to project possible targets and identifying key support zones and invalidation levels. This analysis aims to provide a macro perspective based on price action, helpful for traders and investors following BTC from a medium- to long-term technical view. 🛑 Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Each user is responsible for their own trading decisions.
Long
by Zky17
How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion: If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier? Answer (VX Algo System perspective): In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles: Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points. Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure). When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context. How to tell which prevails: Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal. Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail. Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift. Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by WallSt007
June 27th, 2025 - Morning BriefFriday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline. Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SP:SPX and CME_MINI:NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NASDAQ:NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NYSE:NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure. But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching. Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino. Here’s where things stand: - OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns) - BLACKBULL:WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos) - BINANCE:BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream) - CME_MINI:ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex. Been building something for US swing traders — if you’re one, I’d really appreciate your feedback. Free to test, link in Bio
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Global Markets Bet on Dovish Fed Pivot Markets are pricing in more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—approximately 125 bps by end-2026—due to speculation that President Trump may replace Chair Powell with a dovish successor. Investors caution excessive political influence could jeopardize Fed independence 🏦 Fed Governor Warns of Tariff Risks Fed’s Michael Barr emphasized that tariffs could trigger inflation and unemployment, reinforcing the Fed’s wait‑and‑see approach. Expect modest rate cuts later this year, contingent on economic signals 📉 Q1 GDP Revised Sharply Lower First-quarter U.S. GDP was downgraded to an annualized contraction of 0.5%, a deeper fall than previously reported. The revision underscores drag from weak consumer spending and trade disruptions 📃 Trade Deficit Widens in May U.S. goods trade deficit expanded 11% to $96.6 billion, driven by a $9.7 billion drop in exports. Trade gap dynamics remain a headwind for growth projections 🐘 JPMorgan Sees Stagflation Risks JPMorgan revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1.3%, warning that tariff-related “stagflationary impulse” is complicating growth and inflation outlooks—and making recession risks more real 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 27: 8:30 AM ET – U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June (Prelim.) Expected to reflect growing economic caution. The index fell in May; traders will watch for further weakness. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Stress Test Results Fed to release annual bank stress-test outcomes. Strong results support financial stability, while weak spots could unsettle markets ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #macro #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
What Is The Market Waiting For?Good Morning Trading Fam, Our stock and crypto markets seem to have stalled. You may be wondering what they are waiting for. Quite simply, the S&P 500 has reached a double-top. That's all. There may be some more pause here for the next week or so. Barring any significant bearish geopolitical or other events, I expect us to move higher. Any FUD at all will send the market back down again. So yes, unfortunately, the next move(s) will be mostly predicated on news. Traders are rather fragile rn. Trade accordingly. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Most see rejection. I see a launchpadWhat looks like a failed breakout is actually SOL setting up for a higher timeframe reversal, right at a refined zone of inefficiency and Smart Money interest. The narrative isn’t over — it’s just beginning. Technical Breakdown: Current Price: ~$143.30 Context: Price tagged the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily and showed reaction — a sign of algorithmic awareness Volume profile suggests thin liquidity above, ripe for expansion if momentum kicks in Key Levels: FVG (1D) zone: just under current price (~140.19) Order Block (OB): ultimate demand zone near 137.23 — strong structural support Downtrend Line: recently broken, retest in motion Major Upside Target: 168.36 — a clean liquidity magnet Strategic Thesis: Price dipped into FVG but held above the OB — a classic Smart Money accumulation setup The dashed projection shows potential higher lows forming, giving fuel for a push through prior highs FVG + OB form the discount zone, where risk/reward is maximized before the next impulse move Execution Plan: Entry zone: $140.00–137.50 → Expect small shakeouts before confirmation Invalidation: Daily close below $136 kills the bullish case Target: Primary: $168.36 Stretch Goal: $172–176 if momentum is sustained into August
by SmartFlowsI
Everyone sees consolidation. I see positioningETH is holding just above a key fib cluster, showing signs of controlled distribution, not weakness. Smart Money doesn’t chase — they build positions while the crowd second-guesses. The Structure: Current Price: ~2,419 Local High (Premium): 2,482.09 Fib Retracements: 0.236 → 2,394.72 (mild correction) 0.382 → 2,340.68 (initial re-entry zone) 0.5 → 2,296.99 (ideal discount) 0.618 → 2,253.31 (deep entry, high confluence) 0.786 → 2,191.11 (structure last line) Key Zones: FVG already filled during the move up — imbalance mitigated Order block (OB) at 2,191.11: high-probability reaction zone Strategy Outlook: Scenario A (Shallow pullback): ETH tests 2,394 → 2,340, then continues the push to 2,482 → Aggressive buyers step in early Scenario B (Deeper sweep): A drop to 2,296 → 2,253 opens the door for reaccumulation → Classic Smart Money trap before the next rally Invalidation: A break below 2,191 (and OB failure) kills this bullish narrative Execution Logic: Accumulation Zones: Light: 2,340–2,296 Strong: 2,253–2,191 (discount reload) Target: 2,482 Extension optional if momentum builds above recent highs
by SmartFlowsI
Premium zone tagged — now we watch how the Smart Money reactsBitcoin just tapped into the 108,151 level — the top of a measured premium range and a likely area where profit-taking begins and fresh distribution footprints form. This run-up wasn’t random. Price surged from inefficiency, cleanly filled the fair value gap (FVG), and is now flirting with a key liquidity pocket. Here's what the structure says: Premium reached: 108,151 (0% fib) If rejection holds, Smart Money looks to discount entries: 0.236: 106,136 0.382: 104,889 0.5: 103,882 Deep retracement zone: 0.618 at 102,874 Final defense for bulls? The unmitigated FVG block between 101,440 → 99,613 Possible Playbook Scenarios: Quick retrace → higher high: Bounce off 104,889 or 103,882 before attacking 108,967+ Deeper sweep: Into 102,874 (0.618) before Smart Money steps in again Invalidation: Break below 99,613 closes this bullish narrative and confirms a structural break TL;DR Execution Logic: Wait for retracement into 0.5–0.618 fibs Look for bullish reaction (engulfing or SFP) Upside targets: 108,151 (retest) 108,967 (liquidity sweep) Further upside if momentum sustains
by SmartFlowsI
UNEXPECTED RISK CRASH FREE FALL AFTER TREND DATA FOR TH NEXT 48HDepending on our study, BTC has a high chance of a new crash below 100K. The next 48 hours are important for the trend change of BTC, which can allow the trend to free-fall below 100K BTC is at a top, and it did recovery always recovered on the M volume top., We are now again on the same trend. BTC can return below 100K as this update shows, with the possibility of targeting the main target 85K - This is the trend zone for new interest. The reason for this crash is that BTC has not confirmed the cycle, which means the end of the cycle. There is always possibility that the market can act green, but we expect it can show an unexpected breakdown.
Short
by SatochiTrader
5
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Slides on Middle East Ceasefire Optimism A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment across global markets. The U.S. dollar weakened, while the euro and British pound hovered near multi‑year highs 📈 Equities Near Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed toward all-time highs on June 25, supported by the Middle East truce and retreating energy prices. The S&P 500 rallied ~1.1%, with tech and discretionary sectors leading the charge 🛢 Oil & Treasuries Dip, Yield Cuts Anticipated Oil plunged ~6% to ~$65/bbl as conflict fears eased. Softer prices plus weak consumer confidence spurred expectations of up to 60 bps in Fed rate cuts by December; Treasury yields pulled back accordingly 📉 Consumer Confidence Falls Again The Conference Board’s index dropped to 93—the lowest level since May 2020—as concerns over tariffs and job availability weighed on households 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 25: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets remain focused on geopolitical dynamics, Fed commentary, and next week’s PCE inflation release. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #inflation #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance 🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds 💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 24: 10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June) Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
After 45% Profit On Last Trade, I Am Re-entering UMACTrading Family, On our stock trades, using my new liquidity indicator, we have been solidly beating the market with a cool 15% profit since our first trade with it. If you had held the SPY from the same time, your profit would have been a more meager 6.5%. Our indicator is proving beneficial, to say the least. And the last time it gave me a buy signal on UMAC, we banked 45% in profit on my last exit. I then determined that if it did not give me a sell signal (it hasn't), I would look to re-enter at that 7.66 level. We have reached that level, and I have dipped my toes back in at 7.94. I would look to double up my position if we drop even further to that 6.44 level, but I don't know that we will. My target of 11.76 will give us another 48% profit on this trade, and I have a SL set at 6.18 for a nice 2.17 rrr. Let's go! Stew
AMEX:UMACLong
by stewdamus
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment 🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction 📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses 🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile ⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 23 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June) 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May) 📅 Tuesday, June 24 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June) Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress 📅 Wednesday, June 25 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May) 📅 Thursday, June 26 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate) 📅 Friday, June 27 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4% 🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs 📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 20: (No major U.S. economic reports) Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Where Most See Resistance, Smart Money Sees OpportunityDOGE is currently hovering around the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone after a reactive bounce from 0.618 (0.16784) — a critical discount level. Most traders panic at these levels, but experienced participants know this is the zone where price builds intention. Here's the breakdown of the structure: Price tapped into the 0.618 Fibonacci level (0.16784) and began showing signs of recovery — a typical Smart Money accumulation zone. The next target is 0.17042, aligning with the 0.236 retracement level, followed by 0.17151, where previous supply might get mitigated. Potential retracements are possible, but as long as price holds above 0.16670 (0.786), the bullish structure remains intact. Execution strategy: Entry (Accumulation Zone): Between 0.16784 and 0.16864 Invalidation: Break below 0.16600 would weaken the bullish case Upside targets: • TP1 → 0.17042 • TP2 → 0.17151 • Extension possibility beyond 0.17204 This move appears to be a classic premium-delivery setup — a structural reset, not a collapse. Smart Money steps in quietly when retail panic takes over. If you're trading DOGE like a pro, focus on levels, not emotions. Let me know if you'd like this converted into a tweet format or turned into a technical newsletter paragraph.
by SmartFlowsI
BTC – 15min Reversal Structure & Fibonacci ReclaimWe’re currently witnessing a potential short-term reversal on BTC’s lower timeframe after a volume-supported breakdown and sweep of local lows. 🔍 Key Observations: Price swept liquidity at local lows (~103,929.27) Entered into a clear reaccumulation box with responsive buyers Volume profile shows prior POC just above – room for fill Fibonacci retracement aligns with key structure: 0.5 = 104,372.94 0.618 = 104,268.23 1.0 = 104,816.60 (final high target for this impulse) 📈 Potential Play: Entry Zone: Just above the sweep candle (104,100–104,200) Target 1: 0.382 at 104,477 Target 2: 104,816.60 Invalidation: Close below 103,926 🧠 Mindset: This is a classic liquidity sweep → reaction → reclaim pattern. If BTC flips the 0.5 level with strong momentum, a short squeeze toward the 104.8K area becomes likely. Great opportunity for scalpers or day traders. Let me know if you want this turned into a long-form breakdown or sent in another format.
by SmartFlowsI
SOL – Sweep & Spring Play at Local DemandWe’ve got a clean rounded top → breakdown → demand sweep setup. Current price action suggests a potential reversal is brewing. 🔍 What’s happening on this chart? Rounded top marks a local distribution — aggressive short entries Price broke lower, swept the demand zone (gray box), and now shows rejection wick + bullish reaction Fibonacci levels mapped out the structure 0.5 = 154.51 0.618 = 157.76 = key resistance liquidity zone 🎯 Trade idea: Entry: inside demand zone (OB marked on chart) Target 1: 151.25 Target 2: 157.76 (0.618) Full fill: 162.40 – 168.30 (complete inefficiency sweep) 🧠 Mindset: This setup is classic spring + reclaim. If price consolidates and flips 147.2, upside becomes favorable. If you like clean trade setups with logic and clear invalidation, check the account bio for more updates and live breakdowns.
by SmartFlowsI
Volume spikes on down moves add to selling pressure.📉 BTCUSDT – 1H Chart Technical Outlook 🔍 Structure Insight: Bitcoin is currently trading within a descending channel, forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating persistent bearish pressure. Price action appears compressed between key trendlines, hinting at an imminent breakout. --- 🔻 Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Primary Bias) If BTC fails to hold above the lower boundary of the range, a decisive break below could trigger a sharp move toward the 103,650–103,000 demand zone. The structure supports continuation to the downside if the price rejects resistance again. 🧊 Bearish Confluence: Price is unable to break above dynamic resistance. Momentum remains weak near the mid-range. Volume spikes on down moves add to selling pressure. --- 🔼 Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Alternative View) A breakout above the descending trendline and confirmation candle could flip bias short-term bullish. This would target the 105,400+ region as the next liquidity area. ⚡ Bullish Signs to Watch: Break and retest above trendline resistance. Bullish engulfing or breakout candle with volume. --- 🔍 Key Levels to Monitor Support: 103,650 / 103,000 Resistance: 105,000 / 105,400 Breakout Zones: Watch for clean breaks and retests outside the wedge pattern. --- 📌 Conclusion: BTC is coiling within a tightening range. The breakout direction will likely dictate the next short-term trend. Maintain flexibility — breakout confirmation is key before positioning. 🚨 Not financial advice — always DYOR before trading!
by Peter_Wade
Price recently broke down from a descending wedge.📊 Gold (XAUUSD) – 1H Chart Analysis Structure Overview: Price recently broke down from a descending wedge/consolidation pattern after forming lower highs and lower lows — a classic sign of bearish pressure building up. 🔻 Bearish Breakout in Play: The sharp move down through the wedge's lower boundary suggests strong momentum to the downside. This aligns with the previous rejection from the top of the falling channel. 🔮 Potential Scenarios: 1. Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias): If price sustains below the wedge support and fails to reclaim the breakout zone, we could see a further decline toward lower support levels (as shown in the downward arrow). Watch for possible reactions at 3350 → 3345 → 3340 zones. 2. Bullish Fakeout Recovery (Alternative): If price quickly reclaims the broken trendline and forms a bullish engulfing or breakout structure, it could invalidate the breakdown, signaling a possible reversal and rally back up toward 3380+ (as indicated by the upward projection). ⚠️ Key Levels to Watch: Support: 3350 / 3345 / 3340 Resistance: 3365 / 3380 Zone of interest: Retest of wedge breakdown area 📌 Insight: The market has broken below the daily bullish FVG CE level, further supporting the bearish bias — but retests can trap sellers, so remain flexible.
FX:XAUUSD
by Peter_Wade