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EUR/USD at the Edge: Bounce Before Breakdown?🧩 Macro & COT Context (Note: data frozen as of September 23 due to CFTC shutdown) The latest available COT report showed non-commercial traders still net long on EUR (≈ +114K contracts), but with a steady increase in both commercial longs (+4.9K) and commercial shorts (+3.3K) — signaling a more balanced positioning. Meanwhile, the USD Index showed a slight pickup in long exposure (+1.5K), hinting at a gradual shift toward USD strength until updated data resumes. 💭 Sentiment Retail traders are 67% short vs 33% long, a typical contrarian setup where the crowd is selling the pullback. This supports a short-term bullish bounce, but only until the next supply zone is reached. 📈 Seasonality Historically, November has been a neutral-to-bearish month for EUR/USD (-0.0021 on 20Y average; -0.0063 on 10Y). The pair tends to weaken during the second half of the month, before recovering into December. 📊 Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price remains inside a descending channel since late September, recently retesting the upper boundary and supply area at 1.1570–1.1710, where a clean rejection formed. RSI holds below the midline (~45), confirming weak momentum. The overall structure stays bearish, with room for continuation toward the 1.1380–1.1400 demand zone, aligning with both channel projection and liquidity targets. Main Bias: Short continuation Sell Zone: 1.1570–1.1620 (upper channel + supply) Target 1: 1.1400 Target 2: 1.1350 (weekly liquidity pool) Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1715 Summary 📊 COT (last update): EUR still net long → neutral bias until new data 📉 Seasonality: Historically weak November 📈 Sentiment: Retail short → short-term bullish bounce possible 🧭 Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1715
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold pauses below resistance — correction before next leg higherGold’s recent rally above 4,300 USD per ounce has stalled as U.S. yields remain elevated and the dollar sustains moderate strength. The slowdown in Core PCE (2.6%) and Q3 GDP (2.2%) revived expectations for a Fed rate cut in early 2026, yet Powell’s message of caution kept the greenback supported. Meanwhile, real rates remain positive, limiting gold’s upside momentum in the short term. On the geopolitical front, safe-haven flows have softened after last week’s easing in Middle East tensions, prompting some profit-taking from speculative longs. However, persistent macro uncertainty and expectations of a gradual Fed pivot maintain gold’s medium-term bullish foundation. COT (Commitment of Traders) The COT reports remain frozen due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The latest available data (Sept 23) showed: • Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030) • Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691) This reflected an accumulation phase with a moderate increase in both sides, but a clear net-long bias from institutional players. ⚠️ Since the data is outdated by over a month, institutional positioning may have shifted following the recent volatility — interpret with caution. Retail Sentiment 📊 58% long / 42% short → contrarian bearish bias Retail traders remain moderately long on gold, suggesting room for a short-term pullback before any renewed institutional accumulation phase. Seasonality Historically, November tends to show a slightly negative seasonal bias for gold: •Average change: between –0.4% and –7.5% depending on sample length. •The pattern often shows a mid-month dip followed by strength into December. 📆 Seasonal view: short-term correction likely in early November before a year-end rally resumes. Technical Outlook After a sharp rally in October, XAU/USD has entered a consolidation/distribution phase just below the 4,250–4,300 resistance area. Scenario principale: A short-term continuation lower toward 3,950–3,900 remains likely as price retests the daily demand zone. From there, buyers could re-enter in line with the seasonal recovery expected later in November. Invalidation: Daily close below 3,850 would invalidate the bullish medium-term structure. Trading Bias •Short-term: Bearish → correction toward 3,950–3,900 •Medium-term: Neutral → awaiting confirmation of support reaction •Long-term: Bullish → supported by macro uncertainty and dovish Fed outlook into 2026 ✅ Final View: Gold is likely to correct further toward 3,950–3,900 before resuming its broader uptrend into December. Momentum is cooling, but the long-term bullish narrative remains intact as Fed easing expectations build.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep Before Year-End RallyUSD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness. 1️⃣ Seasonal Bias Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs. 2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side. JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative. The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term. 3️⃣ Sentiment Data Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension. 4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation. Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50 Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support) Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection) RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions. The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November. 5️⃣ Confluence Summary ✅ Seasonality: Bullish ✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY ✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish ✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel ⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD – Bears in Control but Demand Zone Could Spark a Rebound🔹 EUR/USD – Weekly Outlook (1–7 November 2025) Bears remain in control, but a key demand zone is now in play. The euro continues to trade under pressure as macro divergences between the U.S. and Eurozone persist. In the U.S., the latest data confirmed a clear cooldown in growth and inflation, with Core PCE slowing to 2.6% YoY and GDP Q3 printing 2.2% vs. 3.0% expected. This fueled market expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q1 2026, yet Chair Powell reiterated that “progress on inflation remains incomplete,” keeping a neutral–hawkish tone. The U.S. dollar therefore preserved its defensive bid, supported by ongoing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension and weaker European data. Across the Eurozone, inflation continues to decelerate (headline 2.5%, core 2.8%), while PMIs remain below 50, indicating a stagnant industrial sector. Market participants now expect the ECB to lean more dovish into early 2026, potentially preparing the ground for a rate cut once disinflation stabilizes. This narrative has weighed on the euro, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.16. COT (Commitment of Traders) COT data remain frozen due to the CFTC shutdown, with the last update dated September 23. At that time, non-commercials held a strong net long on EUR (+114K), reflecting broad bearishness on the USD. However, the latest price action clearly suggests a partial unwinding of long exposure, consistent with the recent downside retracement. ⚠️ These figures are now outdated and must be interpreted with caution — institutional flows may have shifted significantly since late September. Retail Sentiment 📊 59% long / 41% short → contrarian bearish bias. Retail traders remain predominantly long, implying a higher probability of continued downside in the short term, especially while macro data favor the dollar. Seasonality Seasonal statistics for November are mildly positive over 10–20Y composites, but recent 5-year data suggest a sluggish start to the month, often followed by a technical rebound in the second half. 📅 Seasonal conclusion: short-term weakness likely persists into mid-November, with recovery potential toward month-end once markets price in softer U.S. CPI or dovish Fed expectations. Technical Outlook EUR/USD continues to move within a descending channel since late August. After a clean rejection from the 1.1700–1.1750 supply zone, the pair broke recent lows and is now consolidating within the 1.1530–1.1550 demand area, aligned with the summer support base. Key technical levels: Resistance: 1.1650–1.1700 Immediate support: 1.1530–1.1500 Next demand zone: 1.1380–1.1420 RSI: below 50, yet showing early signs of bullish divergence, hinting at a potential rebound if 1.15 holds. 🎯 Primary Scenario: Price may extend the corrective leg toward 1.1450–1.1420, where a structural swing low could form. From there, any USD weakness following U.S. CPI data could fuel a technical rebound targeting 1.1650–1.1700. ⚙️ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1730, which would break the descending structure and shift the bias neutral-to-bullish. Summary Macro: Euro pressured by softer inflation and weak PMI; USD supported by cautious Fed and geopolitical flows. Sentiment: Retail still long — contrarian signal for more downside. Technical: Channel intact; demand zone at 1.1530–1.1500 under test. Outlook: Expect another leg lower before possible late-month rebound.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
USD/CAD: Short-Term Correction 🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) (Last update: September 23, 2025 – data not refreshed due to the U.S. government shutdown) USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutional traders were closing shorts and adding longs, signaling early signs of bullish bias on the USD before the shutdown halted updates. Canadian Dollar (CME Futures) Non-commercial longs: 18,035 (−2,940) Non-commercial shorts: 132,841 (+4,689) → Heavy short build-up on CAD alongside long reduction — a bearish institutional sentiment for the Canadian Dollar. Even with outdated data, the COT positioning remains USD bullish / CAD bearish, supporting a medium-term upside bias on USD/CAD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 56% short / 44% long 📌 Retail traders are slightly net short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for USD/CAD — aligning with institutional positioning. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October shows mild positive bias for USD/CAD on long-term averages (15–20 years), but the 5-year tendency is slightly negative. Neutral-to-mildly bullish for late October, with stronger USD seasonality emerging in November–December. 🔹 Price Action The pair remains within a rising parallel channel from July lows, recently rejecting the upper boundary near 1.4100 and showing early signs of structural fatigue. Price is now consolidating between 1.4000–1.3900, with bearish momentum slowly building up. Technical Levels: Resistance: 1.4050–1.4100 Support zone 1: 1.3900 Support zone 2 (major): 1.3700 RSI: showing divergence with lower highs, signaling potential corrective leg ahead. 🎯 Main Scenario: A short-term retracement toward 1.3850–1.3800 remains likely if 1.3900 breaks, while the broader bullish trend remains intact unless price closes below 1.3700. Bias for now → Short-term corrective, medium-term bullish. Invalidation: daily close below 1.3700 (trendline + demand break).
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
GOLD Short-Term Pullback 🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) (Last update: September 23, 2025 – data not refreshed due to the CFTC shutdown) Gold (COMEX) Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030) Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691) → The latest available data (outdated) showed an increase in both positions, with a stronger rise on the long side — indicating institutional accumulation in late September ahead of the October rally. Although outdated, the COT report still reflects a mildly bullish structure, but no longer captures the current market dynamics after recent volatility. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 58% long / 42% short 📌 Retail traders remain moderately long on gold. This supports a short-term contrarian bearish bias, aligning with the ongoing corrective move in price. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October and November tend to be statistically bullish months for gold, with average gains between +2% and +4% over 10–20-year periods. 📌 Seasonal conclusion: the context remains bullish on a seasonal basis, with potential for recovery once the current correction stabilizes. 🔹 Price Action After the strong bullish impulse that pushed XAU/USD into the 4,350–4,400 area, price entered a phase of consolidation/distribution. Current structure shows: Key resistance: 4,250–4,300 Main demand zone: 3,950–3,900 RSI remains neutral but continues to lose momentum, consistent with a possible minor bearish leg before a new bullish wave. 🎯 Main Scenario: Expecting a continuation of the corrective phase toward 3,950–3,900, aligning with the daily demand area and a likely institutional reaccumulation zone. From there, a potential bullish resumption could emerge within November’s seasonal strength. ⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 3,850, which would compromise the medium-term bullish structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD: Technical Rebound in Progress — Watch 1.1550🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutions are reducing long exposure and adding shorts, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutions are adding longs and cutting shorts, reflecting growing confidence in the USD. Institutional flows confirm a bearish bias on EUR/USD, with strengthening USD sentiment and mild euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 50% short / 50% long Market sentiment is perfectly balanced — a neutral retail positioning indicating no clear contrarian signal, consistent with a possible short-term consolidation phase. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly negative for EUR/USD (−0.2% to −0.5% on 10–20-year averages). Shorter cycles (2–5 years) show minor positive returns, suggesting that any rebound may be temporary within a broader bearish structure. Slight downside bias, with potential for short-term corrective upside. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD recently reacted from the 1.1530–1.1550 demand zone, showing signs of short-term accumulation. The descending channel has been broken to the upside, and price is now retesting the previous mid-range support (1.1600–1.1620). RSI remains neutral but shows a gradual bullish divergence building at the lows. 🎯 Main Scenario: If 1.1600–1.1620 holds as support, a short-term bullish leg toward 1.1710–1.1780 (former supply area) is possible. Invalidation: daily close below 1.1550, which would reopen downside toward 1.1500.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
GBP/NZD: Smart Money Flows Back Into Sterling🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) British Pound (GBP) Non-commercial longs: 84,500 (+3,704) Non-commercial shorts: 86,464 (−912) → Institutions increased long exposure and trimmed shorts → signaling renewed bullish interest in the pound. New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Both positions increased, but the stronger rise in shorts suggests a bearish institutional sentiment on the NZD. Institutional flow supports GBP strength and NZD weakness → overall bullish bias on GBP/NZD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 69% short / 31% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian bullish signal aligned with the COT positioning. 🔹 Seasonality British Pound (GBP): October is historically neutral to slightly positive (+0.2% to +0.4% on average over 5–10 years). New Zealand Dollar (NZD): October shows mild positivity in the short term (2–5 years) but turns neutral/negative over 10–20 years. 📌 Seasonal takeaway: slight divergence, but GBP retains the upper hand in the medium term. 🔹 Price Action Price remains within a rising channel, testing the dynamic support around 2.3050–2.3100. After a pullback from the 2.3450–2.3550 supply zone, price is now reacting from the channel’s lower boundary. RSI is neutral but showing potential for a technical rebound. 🎯 Main Scenario: A pullback around 2.3100–2.3150 could provide a new long opportunity toward 2.3500–2.3600, with extension to 2.3800. ⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 2.2950. 🔹 Trading Outlook Primary Bias: Bullish Confluences: COT → Institutions long GBP, short NZD Sentiment → Retail excessively short = contrarian long Seasonality → Favors GBP Price Action → Rising channel structure still valid 🎯 Technical Target: 2.3500 → 2.3800 🚫 Invalidation: below 2.2950
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
EUR/JPY: Smart Money Turns to the Yen🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders slightly reduced longs and added shorts → signaling mild weakening momentum on the euro. Japanese Yen (JPY) Non-commercial longs: 176,400 (+14,727) Non-commercial shorts: 96,900 (−3,362) → Sharp increase in longs and notable short covering → bullish flow into the yen, reflecting potential medium-term strength. Combined Interpretation: COT confirms a bearish bias on EUR/JPY, with euro weakness and increasing yen demand. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 83% short / 17% long Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian signal that may trigger a short-term bounce, though the broader macro backdrop still favors the yen. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly positive for EUR/JPY over 5–10 years (+0.5% on average), while 15–20-year data shows a mild negative tendency (around −0.6%). Seasonal takeaway: neutral bias, with correction risk if yen strength persists. 🔹 Price Action Price is consolidating below 176.00 after a sharp rejection from the 177.50–178.00 supply zone. The technical structure shows lower highs, with the ascending trendline now at risk of breaking. RSI remains neutral but losing momentum. 🎯 Main Scenario: A break below 175.30–175.00 would open space toward 173.50, then 171.80. Invalidation: daily close above 176.50.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
EUR/AUD Bulls Fighting Back — Retail 76% Short!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders have trimmed long positions and increased shorts, signaling a softening bullish bias on the euro. Australian Dollar (AUD): Non-commercial longs: 41,994 (+1,718) Non-commercial shorts: 101,584 (+10,148) → Sharp increase in short exposure versus longs, reflecting renewed bearish pressure on AUD. 📊 Combined Interpretation: While the euro shows mild weakness, the Australian dollar remains under stronger institutional selling pressure. The result is a net bullish bias on EUR/AUD, though upside momentum may moderate as euro positioning cools. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 76% short / 24% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for EUR/AUD. This skew supports the institutional view, hinting that short covering could drive the next bullish leg. 🔹 Seasonality EUR: October tends to be mildly negative on a 10–20 year horizon (−0.20% to −0.60%), but neutralizing into November. AUD: October is historically flat to slightly positive, though broader Q4 data favors euro recovery over commodity currencies. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Neutral-to-bullish EUR/AUD outlook — seasonality doesn’t contradict the structural bullish setup but suggests limited upside speed. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD remains within a broad consolidation range, oscillating between 1.7650–1.7950. The pair has recently bounced strongly from the 1.7600–1.7650 demand zone, aligning with a clean RSI rebound from oversold conditions. Currently trading near 1.7900, approaching the supply area 1.7950–1.8000, which may act as short-term resistance before any continuation move. 🎯 Scenario 1 (Preferred): Continuation higher toward 1.8000, followed by a correction back toward 1.7700 before resuming the broader bullish trend. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.7650 would invalidate the bullish bias and re-open 1.7500.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
NZD/CHF Setup – 94% of Retail Long While Institutions Sell Hard🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Institutions increased exposure on both sides, but short positions rose more aggressively, maintaining a net short stance and signaling structural weakness in the NZD. Swiss Franc (CHF): Non-commercial longs: 8,227 (+1,992) Non-commercial shorts: 31,245 (−1,030) → A solid reduction in shorts and rise in longs, indicating a renewed bullish interest in the Swiss franc. 📊 Combined Interpretation: Institutional flow clearly favors CHF strength and NZD weakness, confirming a bearish bias on NZD/CHF. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 94% long / 6% short 📌 Retail traders are heavily long, a strong contrarian bearish signal. This imbalance highlights the risk of further downside, perfectly aligned with the institutional view. 🔹 Seasonality NZD: October shows mildly positive performance over 5–10 years, but weakness across 15–20 years → a short-term neutral-to-bullish but uncertain context. CHF: October is historically positive across all time horizons (5–20 years), with average gains between +0.5% and +1.2%, confirming a seasonal bullish bias for CHF. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Seasonality supports a bearish outlook for NZD/CHF, consistent with both the COT and retail sentiment data. 🔹 Price Action The pair continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel. Clear bearish breakout from the 0.4660–0.4700 supply zone, followed by a strong daily close lower. Currently retracing toward 0.4620–0.4640, an area where fresh selling pressure may emerge. RSI remains neutral with no bullish divergence, confirming sustained downside momentum. Key supports: 0.4550 (TP1), 0.4500 (TP2). Resistance: 0.4660 (invalidation above 0.4680). 🎯 Base Scenario: A short-term correction toward 0.4630–0.4640 followed by renewed bearish continuation toward 0.4500. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 0.4680.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD Breakdown Just Starting? Institutions Loading USD Longs🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Hedge funds slightly trimmed their long exposure while adding to shorts, signaling a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY): Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Positioning shows a clear strengthening of the dollar, as speculators close shorts and increase longs. 📊 Interpretation: Institutional flow remains decisively in favor of the USD, reflecting renewed dollar strength and moderate euro weakness — keeping a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the short term. 🔹 FX Sentiment 50% long / 50% short 📌 The market is perfectly balanced, showing no contrarian extremes at the moment. However, this neutral sentiment after weeks of long dominance indicates a shift in retail perception, likely preceding a consolidation phase before another bearish leg. 🔹 Seasonality Based on Market Bulls historical data for EUR/USD: October has historically been negative, with average declines between −0.20% and −0.60% across 10–20 year datasets. Seasonality improves from November onward, but October remains a period of weakness for the euro. 📌 Conclusion: The seasonal context is bearish, aligning with institutional positioning and current price structure. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD has broken the ascending trendline from August and is now consolidating below the 1.1750–1.1800 supply zone, strongly rejected earlier this month. The pair trades inside a descending channel, with key support at 1.1550–1.1500 and resistance near 1.1720–1.1750. The RSI is neutral but showing bearish divergence, hinting at a possible short-term pullback before the next leg lower. 🎯 Base scenario: a corrective bounce toward 1.1700–1.1750, followed by renewed downside pressure targeting 1.1450, with potential extension to 1.1380. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1780.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Crude Oil Outlook: Pressure Mounts as 2025 Lows Come Into ViewCrude oil prices are tracing another plunge back to yearly lows amid mounting oversupply, weak demand, and tariff concerns. New 2025 lows may be reached in the short-term horizon, aligning with the lower boundaries of a 3-year down trending channel From a weekly time frame perspective, crude oil is facing the lower border of a three-year descending channel extending from the 2022 highs. The $55 support currently holds as the 2025 low, but a clean break below it could extend losses toward the $49 zone, aligning with the channel’s bottom boundary — a potential area of support. If this level fails, a deeper selloff could extend toward the $37 region. On the upside, should prices recover above the $58 mark, a bullish rebound may extend toward $60, $63, and $66, respectively. However, for a sustainable bullish outlook on crude, a breakout above both the three-year downtrend and the $70 resistance is required. Looking closely at the daily RSI, it is nearing oversold levels last seen in April 2025, suggesting that downside momentum could be approaching exhaustion. In line with the recent movements of U.S. indices, will we see another dip-and-rebound scenario on crude oil — not identical, but perhaps reminiscent of April 2025? - Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
Brent Crude - The BEAR still rules!Price just can’t catch a break. We’ve got a broken uptrend, a clear inverse cup and handle, and price trading below both the 20MA and 200MA – the classic “sell the rallies” setup. As long as we stay under that red downtrend line, the bias is simple: down. Target sits around $54.68, with momentum showing weakness across the board. And yeah… we’ll still pay high fuel prices 😒 💸 Fundamental Reasons for Downside 🪓 Demand Destruction: Global growth is slowing — less demand for oil from major economies. Probably due to an increase in demand for EV or other alternative energy vehicles in the making? 🇨🇳 China Concerns: China’s recovery keeps disappointing, cutting one of oil’s biggest demand sources. 🪙 Strong USD: A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive globally, reducing demand. 🛢️ OPEC Uncertainty: Mixed signals and production inconsistencies are shaking investor confidence. 🏦 Interest Rates Bite: High rates are squeezing industrial output and travel – both oil consumers. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATIONSB:BRENTShort
by Timonrosso
EUR/AUD Ready for Another Drop? Watch 1.7500!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs slightly decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → mild bearish sentiment on the Euro. AUD Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+1,718) while shorts surged strongly (+10,148) → clear bearish positioning on the Australian Dollar. 📌 Combined Interpretation: Mixed signals — institutional investors are trimming Euro longs while heavily increasing AUD shorts, which could sustain EUR/AUD strength in the short term despite mild Euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning) 56% short vs 44% long. 📌 Retail slightly net short → mild contrarian signal supporting short-term upside for EUR/AUD, but not extreme enough to indicate a reversal. 🔹 Seasonality October is historically neutral to slightly bullish for the Australian Dollar, suggesting potential resilience. However, Euro tends to gain modestly into late Q4, often supported by defensive flows. 📌 Seasonal bias leans slightly bearish for EUR/AUD in October, but momentum remains fragile and can easily flip on macro catalysts. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD rejected from the 1.7920–1.7950 supply zone, confirming a descending channel structure. Price bounced from the local support around 1.7660–1.7680, with sellers still in control below the upper trendline. RSI neutral, showing potential for continuation lower after a minor corrective pullback. Key downside target remains at 1.7500, followed by 1.7400 extension if momentum persists. Bullish invalidation only above 1.7930, which would confirm a breakout from the descending channel. 🔹 Trading Outlook Main Bias: Bearish short-term, supported by technical rejection and macro weakness in the Euro. Contrarian Risk: Slightly short retail exposure could trigger a corrective bounce before the next leg down. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.7800 / 1.7930 Support: 1.7600 / 1.7500 / 1.7400
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
CADJPY Set for October Crash? Institutions Bet Big on Yen 📊 Multi-Factor Analysis – CADJPY COT Data JPY: Net long positions are strongly increasing → Non-Commercial long +14.7K, Commercial long +12K. Institutional flows favor the Yen, confirming a bullish bias on JPY. CAD: Heavy liquidation → Commercial longs -49K, shorts -59K, Non-Commercial longs decreasing (-2.9K). Net positioning shows bearish sentiment on CAD, with a clear prevalence of short exposure among speculators. 👉 Interpretation: Institutional flows point toward a strong JPY and weak CAD → bearish bias on CADJPY. Seasonality CAD: Historically weak in October (negative averages in 20Y and 15Y, worsening in 5Y and 2Y). JPY: Historically strong in October, especially on short-term frames (5Y and 2Y very bullish). 👉 Interpretation: Seasonality supports a bearish scenario on CADJPY during October. Retail Sentiment 90% Long vs 10% Short on CADJPY. 👉 Extreme retail long positioning = contrarian bearish signal → potential for further downside pressure. Technical Analysis CADJPY broke below the descending trendline. Currently trading inside the weekly demand zone (105–106), acting as short-term support. RSI oversold → likely technical bounce toward 106.8–107.2 (supply + trendline) before continuation lower. Primary structure remains bearish, with medium-term targets at 104.80–105.00.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
USOIL continues to decline on oversupply concerns Oil prices tumbled on oversupply fears as major producers ramped up output. Reuters reported that ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on October 5th, November production hikes could exceed the planned 137,000 barrels per day. The resumption of Kurdish oil exports and prospects of additional supply may further pressure prices. USOIL extended its decline before consolidating within the 61.50–63.00 range. The death cross of the EMAs points to a potential shift toward bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the 61.50 support, the price could retreat toward 60.00. Conversely, if USOIL breaks above the 63.00 resistance, the price may advance toward 65.50.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Crude Oil Pivot at $65 | Break & Hold Fuels UptrendLast Sunday Opec+ agrees further oil output boost by 137K barrels per day, but less than Sep / Aug output, when market open it went higher. How to manage short-term risk, in this case opportunity with CME Group weekly energy options on such a scheduled announcement? Video version: Crude Oil Futures & Options Ticker: CL Minimum fluctuation: 0.01 per barrel = $10.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
Crude Oil Eyes 4-Month Consolidation BreakoutOil prices have been consolidating within a triangle formation since the June 2025 high, which was triggered by the Israel–Iran escalation. Price action has traced a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, holding above the critical $61 support. With five legs unfolding inside the triangle, a potential bullish breakout could take shape if the price holds above $64, opening the door toward: $66.80, $67.70, and $70.20, which aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel from 2022 A confirmed break above $70.20 could shift the long-term trend, transitioning from consolidation to a potential bullish reversal. From the downside: Failure to hold above $61 could see a retest of the 2025 lows, with key support levels at: $60.20, $59.20, $58.00. Key events: • FOMC meeting – Wednesday • Ukraine-Russia refinery attacks • Demand vs OPEC unwinds Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
AUD/USD Ready for a Short Squeeze? COT Divergence Signals1. Retail Sentiment 73% of retail traders are short versus 27% long. Such an unbalanced positioning usually suggests short squeeze potential, as the market often moves against retail flows, especially when technical levels confirm the bias. 2. COT Report USD Index: Non-Commercials remain skewed to the short side (+18.6k short vs. +13.6k long), with a slight reduction. This indicates the dollar is losing part of its net strength. AUD Futures: Non-Commercials are heavily short (112k vs. 29k long), adding –16,930 new shorts. However, Commercials (hedgers) increased their longs (+11,908). Historically, commercials are more accurate at market turning points. This divergence may point to a bottom forming in AUD. 3. Seasonality (September) September has historically been neutral to slightly negative for AUD/USD: flat performance over 20 years, and weaker over the last 5 years. However, mid-to-late September seasonality stabilizes, setting the stage for an October recovery. Bearish pressure may start fading, leaving room for upside. 4. Technical Outlook Demand Zone: 0.6450–0.6500 has repeatedly rejected price, confirming strong support. Supply Zone: 0.6650–0.6700, recently tested, represents the first upside target. Structure: Price is printing higher lows and showing signs of a potential bullish structure shift. RSI is neutral, with no overbought signals. Possible Scenario: A short pullback into 0.6520–0.6540 before accelerating toward 0.6680–0.6700. 5. Trading Summary Bias: Moderately bullish in the short-to-medium term. Key Drivers: Extreme retail short positioning → potential squeeze. COT divergence (specs heavily short, commercials long) → possible bottom. Weak but improving seasonality. Technical structure favoring upside continuation. 👉 Bottom line: AUD/USD favors long setups, but heavy Non-Commercial short exposure implies volatility could remain elevated.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USDCAD Breakdown Ahead? Seasonality & COT Divergence1. Retail Sentiment 59% short vs. 41% long: retail traders are moderately short on USD/CAD. This leaves room for a potential upside squeeze, but positioning is not extreme, so the contrarian signal remains only partial. 2. COT Report US Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short USD (–5,558 contracts). Commercials net long USD (+6,642 contracts). → Speculators are unloading USD, pointing to structural weakness. Canadian Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short CAD (–108,917 contracts). Commercials net long CAD (+115,041 contracts). → A classic pattern: commercials are buying CAD while speculators remain heavily short. Historically, such extreme divergence often precedes CAD appreciation phases. COT Summary: USD: weakness from speculators. CAD: commercials strongly long, speculators extremely short. → Clear divergence: potential CAD strength, bearish bias for USD/CAD. 3. Seasonality September has historically been bearish for USD/CAD: –0.37% over the last 20 years. Also negative on 10- and 2-year averages, more mixed on 5 years. The second half of the month tends to favor CAD strength. 4. Technical Outlook Supply Zone: 1.3850–1.3900 (key resistance repeatedly tested and rejected). Demand Zone: 1.3700–1.3720 (first short target), followed by 1.3600–1.3650. Structure: Strong rejection from the 1.3890 area. Lower highs forming. 50–100–200 MAs in bearish confluence. Daily rejection candle, confirming downside continuation potential. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Bearish (short USD/CAD). Setup: Short on pullbacks to 1.3840–1.3860. Target 1: 1.3720. Target 2: 1.3650. Invalidation: daily close above 1.3900. Confluences: ✔ Retail moderately short → room for squeeze, but not extreme. ✔ COT: weak USD + strong CAD commercials → bullish CAD signal. ✔ Seasonality: September historically bearish for USD/CAD. ✔ Technicals: rejection at supply + bearish structure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD at Make-or-Break Zone: Rejection Incoming1. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials (speculators) remain net short on the dollar (13,645 long vs 18,666 short). However, last week saw a slight increase in longs (+487) and a decrease in shorts (-597). This indicates a modest improvement in sentiment toward the greenback, though not yet a full reversal. Euro: Non-commercials remain heavily long (255,660 long vs 136,068 short). Yet, last week showed a reduction in longs (-2,726) and an increase in shorts (+721), suggesting profit-taking and weaker bullish conviction. 👉 Overall, the COT reflects a potential rebalancing: euro net longs are being reduced, while dollar shorts are unwinding. This aligns with a possible relative strengthening of the USD. 2. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, while only 28% are long. 👉 A classic contrarian signal: when the majority is short, the risk of upside squeezes remains. However, context matters—price is near key technical resistance, which leaves room for a potential fake-out to the upside before a reversal. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been slightly positive for EUR/USD (+0.0021 average over the past 20 years). 👉 Seasonality favors a mild sideways-to-bullish bias in the early weeks of the month, with heightened volatility mid-month. 4. Technical Analysis (Chart) Price is trading around a major resistance zone (1.1750–1.1800), which has already been rejected multiple times. Structure: consolidation persists within the 1.1650–1.1750 range. Key demand lies at 1.1550–1.1600, extending down toward 1.1400 if breakdown occurs. RSI is neutral—not overbought—leaving room for directional moves. 👉 Technical setup: failure to break 1.1750 opens the risk of a retracement toward 1.1600–1.1550, and potentially 1.1400, consistent with your chart projection. Conclusion COT: euro longs unwinding, dollar shorts decreasing → tilt in favor of USD. Retail sentiment: contrarian, heavily short → risk of short-term upside spikes. Seasonality: mild positive bias in September with mid-month volatility. Technical: strong resistance at 1.1750, risk of rejection toward 1.1600–1.1550. 📌 Trading Bias : Neutral-to-bearish. In the short term, EUR/USD could test/spike above 1.1750 to hunt stops, but the medium-term outlook (COT + technicals) remains skewed toward a bearish correction into 1.1550–1.1450. Only a solid weekly breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the short scenario.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
NASDAQ on the Edge: Head & Shoulders + Bearish SeptemberOn the daily chart, a clear Head & Shoulders formation has developed: left shoulder in mid-July, head in early August, and right shoulder completed at the end of August. The neckline has been broken with volatility, and price is now retesting the supply zone at 23,600–23,800. This pullback aligns with a weekly area of strong supply, suggesting a potential rejection. The projected target of the pattern points toward 22,800–22,600, an area overlapping with a key structural support. RSI shows bearish divergence and remains below the midline, reinforcing the short bias. COT Report (August 26, 2025) Non-Commercials (funds/speculators): +1,875 longs, -362 shorts → small long increase, but without strong conviction. Commercials (hedgers): -5,832 longs, -1,579 shorts → clear reduction in long exposure, less bullish protection. Net change: -5,275 longs → overall unwinding of long positioning, signaling underlying weakness. Interpretation: Speculators remain net long, but commercials significantly cut exposure, suggesting caution on further upside. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a negative month for NASDAQ: 10-year average: -148 pts 5-year average: -313 pts 2-year average: -804 pts The seasonal pattern supports a bearish bias, with weakness usually concentrated in the first half of the month. Synthesis & Trade Bias Technical: Bearish Head & Shoulders → target 22,800–22,600. COT: Net long reduction by commercials → bearish pressure. Seasonality: September statistically weak. ➡️ Bias: Short on NASDAQ (NQ).
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6