Mysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to the BOE base rate (details below), the median bank...
End of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year. 2. Given the articles...
At the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries. As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few...
1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view...
This is a Monthly chart of USDJPY, this one has caught our eye the most as it has broken out of a major long term downtrend back in 2014 and since hasn't looked back until now, this lines up perfectly as a potential value zone where big money may look to step in. Technical Reasons: 1. Break and retest of a monthly trend line as support. 2. Key area support of...
TNX appears to have ended its 3 wave decline. If 3 hits the common 1.618 multiple of 1 expect TNX at 4.23 before its next significant correction, which will end above 3.0, the top of wave 1 and then likely equal the ascent of 1 for wave 5... Long TNX, short bonds...
This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Price Action and Trends Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - The first 8 of the 10 weeks GU traded extremely bid, ...
This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Ranges Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with...
As I show in this chart, fiber could go down till 1.11X till June. After that it will make some corrective structure that will end with a buy or sell on breakup. Regards and happy trading!
A disappointing open from cable with a bears perspective. Gapping down 100 pips to 1.435 almost immediately puts my sell limit orders (at 146.5) in "unlikely" territory of being hit this week. On friday following the $ EMP report cable managed to rally to 1.458 - i was hopeful it would tick a few more pips upward before the slew of selling started as we move...
short term move possible to bottom of the cloud daily/rate hike in june or july not built in/europe and payroll next week /volatilyioversold/look for volatility to come on/enter on one candle your time above close/use a tight stop/this etf moves quickly with vix/diversify and use small position/yellen words not heard well because of long holiday fomc on the...
As the rally in US stocks continue I taught it would be a good idea to look at the USDJPY since it has been getting beat on in the last few months due to the strengthening of the Japanese Yen. BOJ has introduced negative rates to cause devaluation but that is not working. Going back to Technical Analysis, we can see some support levels that USDJPY is approaching....
The XLU has recentlly reached it's high of early 2015 near $50 which seems to offer strong resistance. A double top seems to be in process. Elliott waves count of 5 waves is completed, a correction seems to have started towards the $46.70/$45.35 area, The wave III should just have started, a fast drop is expected. RSI (5) and MACD are showing beairhs divergence...
This is written in swedish. This charts shows all of the Federal Reserves increase and decrease on funds rate. Each bubble has their respective dates and basis points. All data är collected from Feds website. The green one are rate hikes The red ones are rate decrases. The purple one are the 9/11 and banks crash in 2008.
VVIX represents the volatility of the VIX indicator, more precisely its the 30 day expectation of the VIX index which is the expectation of implied volatility in the SPX in 30 days time. Read more on this on CBOE's website. VVIX is mean reverting in nature, as it is as index and non-tradable it represents this mean reversion without market expectation building...
This support is significant. If broken, it would probably signal yet another prolonged recession
It's another brainless USDHKD like trade except not insured by a peg... There is long term government initiatives within interest rates to appreciate the Rand. And we all know the yen and BOJ wanting to see it much weaker... We'll see how this plays out but I would like to catalog this as a moment of inflection on this pair with interest rates being the...