The Scariest Divergence In the MarketThe Scariest Divergence In the Market
If you look at the chart, you’ll see the TVC:SPX (candles) and U.S. job openings (in blue) plotted together since 2001.
Historically, these two metrics have been highly correlated , both rising and falling almost in sync as the economy expanded or contracted.
But something changed dramatically in November 2022.
That’s when ChatGPT went live, marking the start of the AI boom that has reshaped entire industries and mindsets. From that point on, we can see a massive divergence, the kind we’ve never seen before.
While job openings have kept declining steadily, the market has rallied like never before. This is not logical from a historical point of view.
🤖 Is AI Replacing Workers?
One possible explanation is that the market sees AI as a reason for optimism:
“If companies can do more with less labor, that means higher margins and better efficiency.”
So, fewer job openings might not scare investors anymore, it could even be seen as a sign of progress.
But that raises two key questions:
Is AI really replacing workers ?
If so, what happens to the broader economy and ?
📊 What the Data Says So Far
Surprisingly, unemployment in the U.S. has increased only slightly since AI went mainstream.
It’s a slow, healthy rise not a surge. So i t doesn’t seem like AI is replacing workers at scale just yet.
That’s good news in one sense, if unemployment remains low, consumer demand stays healthy, and the economy keeps running.
However, it also means that companies’ fixed costs haven’t really improved, and their productivity gains from AI are still very moderate , far from the exponential growth that the market seems to be pricing in.
💡 My current View
From my perspective, this chart makes one thing very clear.
The benefits of AI , as of today, are still much smaller than what the market is assuming.
Yes, AI will improve margins and efficiency over time. But if everyone implements it, competition will eventually push prices down again, and margins with them. The very same than internet with the online sales.
The real challenge won’t be for companies that adopt AI, but for those that don’t adapt fast enough , or for those that overspend on AI tools that fail to deliver meaningful returns.
☄️Some AI Stocks Are Starting to Show Doubt
Several major AI-related stocks are also showing concerning patterns . We don’t have confirmation yet , but it’s time to stay alert and be prepared in case the market starts breaking key support levels among the main players.
And the main index, S&P 500 is still in the bull zone but are key levels to watch closely:
🤔 What Do You Think?
Is AI truly transforming company performance as fast as investors believe?
Or are we witnessing a global over-excitement where expectations are running far ahead of reality?
