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Monitor cluster and put stop on breakeven.
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A newer look at the monthly chart for SPX, with circles indicating similarities and some divergence.
Notice also the date periods of the two bull markets. (and remember this one had QE1+2+3.....(+4?)
Notice the stochastics RSI is currently low.
Notice the MACD signal for last months also.
I still see a minimum correction back to the MA200 line.
In conjunction the...
The SPY is overbought, and is about to decline. Seems like a longer term reversal will be in place. This is a natural adjustment to the interest rate environment. Following the link related to this idea, you'll see a further explanation using the Shiller CAPE Index Plot that is frequently updated on his Irrational Exuberance website. My target price is 180 over...
The analysis suggests that we are in the bullish third wave. The third wave will go on till 2230 being the next target. Any resistance shown at 2230 will bring the price down to 1629.36 and form a fourth wave.
Final Conclusion: Go long till 2230 is met and watch the prices closely. If the prices break above, I will be posting charts showing the next targets. If...
Projection of the market based on long term analysis since 2000. Double top that broke to the upside in May 2013 and has reached the Fibonacci resistance.
My line in the sand (LITS) is at 2097.5. Above it, I'm only after longs...below, only after shorts.
Kinda hoping for a bit of a pullback to the Tenkan, Kijun or Ichimoku cloud so I can hop in long for cheaper. Of course if my LITS breaks, my long bias is invalid and I'll be back looking for shorts. As everyone and his dog I'm expecting a correction for the SP500,...
Bearish Gartley has formed on the Daily chart of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY). Warning of a Stock Market pullback.
See Chart for more information. This is in contrast to the Bullish Gartley we are seeing on the EUR/USD (and EUR/JPY) Daily charts.
Check my next published idea to see a better visualization of the chart:
Analysis based on:
-Fibonacci retracements and time zones
-Divergence in RSI and MACD
-Wedging trend
-Possible cross of 20 MA under 40 MA
-Macro instability
Potential top in May and subsequent correction. Maybe the great expected one?
2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA:
- Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF.
- Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US...
Talking about a snoozefest!
Momentum has consistently dropped since July 2014. ADX, D+ and D- are all well below 20 which suggests ranging. D+ and D- have also both dropped off more just recently. Not exactly great trading conditions.
ADX needs to cross 20 and either D+ or D- needs to pick up steam for a clear trend to form again.
A break of 2040 could net...
The SP500 has a remarkable run since 2009, not least due to all that quantitative easing.
Calls for an end to QE and consequently rising interest rates have been growing ever since the latter part of 2014. Since Jan 2015, the SP500 has been ranging in a fairly narrow range and to be honest, it's getting a bit boring.
D+ has just this month crossed below 20 and...
Ahhh so many lines!
I know. So I'll keep this short. Maybe I'm wrong with my conclusions here, but the charts and facts make sense to me. I can't tell you when a crash (slash the next 'correction' to be PC) will be...but I can show you how they're engineering things in the US equity markets without QE
$DIA (to compare industrials vs. broader market a la...
The S&P500 is at important resistances based on Fibonacci projections and showing bearish momentum divergence. We are expecting a corrective down wave (4) towards the 1855 area.
Only a new weekly close above 2120 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112%
USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4%
data up to 10/2014
THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
Plot the ratio of SPX to SPY and most would expect a fairly constant ratio around 10:1 to pop up. But the chart itself shows the same pattern - a quarterly reset starting at about 10.02 and then ratio decay to about 9.97. Last week we were trading 9.96 on average but at end of day Friday we popped to 10.02, right on time at options expiration..
Keep the ratio...
Changes of FED´s speech in the chart, and as they have influenced the dollar and the stocks markets:
FED dropping patient and replacing it with greater emphasis on meeting to meeting data.
Now considering the overbought level, with the dollar strengthening the United States stock market It ought to reach a tipping point That will lead to a healthy correction,...
