S&P500 is bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.459, MACD = 50.390, ADX = 31.702) but the RSI has turned sideways for a long time which is the same pattern that led to the July 27th 2023 High. The index has had three major corrections inside the long term Channel Up, ranging from -8.16% to -10.64%. We expect the index to decline by at least -8.00% in the next 1...
This is a completely full and completed schematic of CME's E-mini S&P 500 Contract. This contract started in 1997 so there are decades of data not accounted for on the real chart. However, these are just as viable and important as the Standard & Poors 500 Indice. Let us take a look at the separate (chronological) boxes and understand what they are... #1 is...
Optimism surrounding earnings last week helped to push the market higher. As a result, the SPX established a new all-time high above $5,100, and the VIX faltered below $14. Subsequently, it did not take long for Wallstreet analysts to upgrade their price targets for various companies, including the one with the most hype around it, NVIDIA. Some of these forecasts...
The S&P500 is on the second straight bearish 1W candle and if the week closes this way, it will be the first series of red 1W candles since the October 23rd 2023 bottom. The 1D timeframe has already turned neutral (RSI = 51.449, MACD = 32.820, ADX = 32.340) after a prolonged period inside the overbought territory, so we can claim that a medium term correction has...
S&P500 is on healthy bullish technicals both on the 4H (RSI = 63.806, MACD = 7.990, ADX = 31.789) as well as the 1D (RSI = 64.592) timeframes as it keeps rising inside a six week Channel Up. According to the last HH wave we are expecting a top on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. If that's coupled with the 4H RSI hitting the top of its Rectangle, we will short the...
The SP has had a nice bull run the past 5 weeks. Now is hitting an important psychological and technical resistance at 500. It might try to break it on the upcoming days but I think it's going to pull back hard soon. I'm already taking profits I have cash sitting there until new opportunities come. I still have some long positions but I'm mostly in cash. Also I'm...
The major U.S. stock market indices are trading in the negative territory ahead of the release of inflation data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A hotter-than-expected print is likely to produce a pop in volatility and convince central bankers in Washington to keep monetary conditions tight during the upcoming meeting in March. Consequently, we pay close...
S&P500 is only a few points away from hitting the HL trendline of the long term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 Low). That would be the second time to test the patterns absolute Top. The 1D technical outlook is on standard bullish levels (RSI = 67.767, MACD = 49.570, ADX = 38.770) but the 1D RSI in particular has formed the very same pattern it did...
After testing $4,900 yesterday, the SPX retreated slightly lower. Currently, it trades near $4,870, and we keep monitoring the resistance at $4,900 and support at $4,800. We are also paying close attention to the RSI, which broke above 70 points on the daily graph; the invalidation of the breakout will raise a slight concern, and the same will apply to the spike...
S&P500 may be overbought on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 72.835, MACD = 15.590, ADX = 49.520) but not yet on the 1D technical outlook as the price hasn't yet made a HH on the two month Channel Up. The 4H RSI does show us though that it is starting that HH peak sequence as it can start a LH trendline like December 14th. We are expecting this wave to peak on a +5.55%...
S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D technica outlook (RSI = 47.788, MACD = 28.200, ADX = 43.854) as it made a LL for the first time since the October 27th 2023 bottom, marking the end of that two month rally. That was the latest bullish wave of the 15 month Channel Up. According to the three prior peaks that formed HH on the Channel Up, the index should kickstart...
If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+. I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend. I'm...
Recently, we discussed how overbought conditions in the stock market were making a case for correction. Now, with the major market indices retreating slightly lower, we are looking for more clues about where the market might be headed next. To support a thesis about the SPX going lower, we would like to see RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continue declining on the daily...
S&P500 crossed and closed a (4h) candle today under the MA50 (4h) for the first time since December 7th. Even though that was a buy opportunity then, this time we expect strong selling as the two month Channel Up is on a very strong RSI (4h) Bearish Divergence. Trading Plan: 1. Sell once the price crosses under the Channel Up. Targets: 1. 4560 (MA50 1d and...
The S&P500 index (SPX) almost hit the 4820 All Time High (ATH) level on the last trading session of 2023. That day completed the 9th straight green weekly (1W) candle, a feat last seen on the week of February 19 2019. This doesn't necessarily indicate that any sort of correction is due as a bullish market can run rallies fueled on fundamental news for even longer...
S&P500 / US500 has almost completed a +17.30% rise, which is the prince range it grew by on the December 1st 2022 High. That was the first High of the long term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13th 2022 bottom. The Channel Up still has a little more room to go upwards before reaching its top but since the price is already over the 0.786 Fibonacci...
The S&P500 index is now on a healthy green 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.835, MACD = 82.010, ADX = 81.214) following a much needed technical pullback yesterday that eased the previously overbought technical indicators. On the 4H timeframe, the index is still inside a two month Channel Up, which found support yesterday on the 4H MA50. As long as it holds, we will...
The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside November's Channel Up, with the price turning sideways after nearly hitting its top. This is a comfortable bullish trade over the 4hour MA50 and looks very much like the November 5th-9th consolidation. As long as the 4hour MA50 supports, buy and target 4850 (top of the Channel Up). If it breaks, sell and target 4550 (bottom...