DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
T Bonds (ZB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on...
The GOVT ETF, representing U.S. Treasury Bonds, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal, according to our proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System.
Key Indicators:
Z-Score:
The Z-Score has surged to 1.60, signaling an overextension to the downside in the past months. This indicates that the recent downward momentum might be exhausted, leading to a possible...
The 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff...
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon.
All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions.
I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown.
The market conditions...
Which often signals a incoming recession.
The market leads the #FED who always raise and lower rates too late.
We have #Unemployment starting to tick up
Tight financial conditions, delinquencies on the rise.
So make hay over the next few months in memestocks, coins, bitcoin, alts, NVDA and so on.
But don't be left holding the hot potato when the music...
On this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish)
over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but
with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some
of those factors.
This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell....
Treasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and...
CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ) and Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! )
The recent US inflation cycle started in June 2020. As the global pandemic interrupted the global supply chain, the prices of goods began to rise rapidly. In the following two years, the headline CPI shot up nearly nine percent to a 40-year high.
The Federal Reserve initially...
10 year looks to be heading to 5 or 5.5 %. MACD and RSI showing upward trend on weekly still. Upward fib extension looks to retest previous high or beyond if Fed doesn’t lower rates anytime soon. Looking for CPI prints to see whether Inflation is going back up which may impact 10 year and I believe the market will continue down while 10 year heads upwards so I’m...
Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
TLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern.
Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising
to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT
and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value...
TMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical
triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending
resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current
ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
TLT is here on a 15-minute chart. Price action is orderly and somewhat related to treasury yield
fluctuations and the value of the existing securities adjusting from those fluctuations. There is
adequate volatility. A straddle options strategy can be employed. Positions can be taken
in both directions. Depending on price action, one leg will rise and the...
Current state of the short and long term #Yield.
The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher.
10Yr vs 30Yr
The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but.......
The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Hello Traders!
The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
Treasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside...
