Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
Breakup today looks impulsive. If they get over 4, a strong resistance will be broken. Target for triangle is approximately 4.5
$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not? The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time...
Here is a big time picture of the RS between the S&P500 and the 30Y Yield
40+ year trend-line resistance broken, backtested and now the 10-year appears to be heading for 5% $TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $ES_F $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading 📈
Timing is always an issue - but we can see 1st downtrendline is broken, and 2nd tested perfectly. We shall see what Fed does next....
Watching TYX 30Y Treasury Bond Yield for a reverse in trend ! Possible trades TBX or TBF
Most have eyes on this, but a reminder its the most important chart right now. 40+ year trend-line being tested! 🤯 $TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $ES_F $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading 📈
Huge run after breakout in early February. Now hitting key resistance area. Will 2.6-2.7% hold? $TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading 📈
Possible the market has gotten ahead of itself on the rate rise? 4 hikes fully priced in already. Ascending channel at key resistance area $TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Rates #Trading
Looks like we are at a resistance level. I want to see if price will retrace the previous low on the daily fib anywhere between 38% - 61% before any bullish run.
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TLT Daily. Based at 135 support area and now testing 200dma. Above can go higher, but bearish divergence ⚠️ so could top $TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $GDX $DXY #Bonds #Stocks #Trading
Without too much noise, interest rates appear to be creeping up. In comparing with other trading instruments I watch, it appears to have the biggest potential for a move. As the rising rates indicate an increase in inflation, I've also had my eyes on a few commodities. Inflation has too long been downplayed but we all know the reality of inflation because we...
The rates have been creeping up slowly (idea published on 8/26/20) but they are running into resistance area. It would be interesting.....
I am watching for the Trend line break for a confirmation. I know everyone is expecting the interest rates to continue to go down but...
Exploded higher than I thought and the pullback to test ~139 was also very quick. #Rates may double dip as #Fed suppresses $ZB_F $ZN_F $TNX $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $DXY #Bonds
When plumbing works well, you don’t need to think about it. That’s usually the case with a vital but obscure part of the financial system known as the repo market. Bank of International Settlements has been reporting some very interesting documents connecting overleverage by MULTIPLE hedge funds (potentially even my hero Ray at Bridgewater) in the overnight...
Hi all, TLT is continue to rise as expected from our update last week. Contrary to popular belief I do believe that $131 will be a meaningful top.