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Us100analysis

Nas100 – Today's Trading Zones Analysis 17 sep.Trading Zones As price trades around all-time highs, the amount of historical data to build strong zones is limited. This makes the current levels less reliable, and traders should approach them primarily as guidance rather than decisive turning points. Zone 1 – All-Time High / Yesterday’s High: This area marks the recent record peak. While it can act as resistance in the short term, its strength is uncertain due to limited data. Price reactions here may be volatile and driven more by sentiment than structure. Zone 2 – Yesterday’s Low: A lighter support level that can provide intraday reactions but lacks deep structural confirmation. Best used as a reference point rather than a major decision area. Zone 3 – Strong Support / High Profitability for Momentum: This is the most significant zone on the chart, where strong buyers have previously stepped in. It carries a higher probability of triggering a strong reaction. That reaction could unfold as a bounce higher if demand holds, or as a sharp move lower if the zone breaks decisively. All eyes are on today’s Fed meeting , where markets widely expect a 25bp rate cut. While the move is largely priced in, the real focus will be on Powell’s tone and the updated dot plot, which will guide expectations for the pace of easing ahead. Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously optimistic, supported by strong tech momentum and softer inflation data, but with price trading at record highs, volatility is likely to spike if the Fed delivers any surprises.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
NAS100 Trading Zones – Navigating All-Time HighsThe Nasdaq is trading at all-time highs, which means there are no established sell zones above. In this environment, price is in full discovery mode. Every new tick higher sets fresh records, and volatility often picks up as traders probe for tops. That makes it difficult to fade strength, shifting the focus toward demand zones below as key areas for potential pullbacks. 🔹 Zone 1 – Today’s Asia Low (24,278–24,289) This zone marks the intraday low from the Asian session and serves as the nearest short-term demand. A revisit here could attract buyers for a bounce, while a decisive break lower would signal loss of momentum and invite deeper retracement. 🔹 Zone 2 – Yesterday’s All-Time High, Now Demand (24,133–24,141) Yesterday’s record high has flipped into a demand zone. As long as price holds above this level, the bullish structure stays intact. A strong rejection here favors continuation higher, but failure to hold could open the door to sharper downside. Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously optimistic. Softer labor data and easing producer prices have strengthened expectations of Fed rate cuts, while strong momentum in select tech names, including Oracle’s upbeat cloud outlook, continues to drive the index higher. Still, with price trading near all-time highs, volatility is elevated and the backdrop fragile, leaving traders mindful that optimism rests heavily on the Fed delivering on dovish expectations.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
Futures steady ahead of Fed cutFutures steady ahead of Fed cut U.S. stock futures held flat on August 15 ahead of the Sept. 17–18 Fed meeting, where a 25-bps cut is widely expected. Markets price about 70 bps of easing by year-end, though Powell may highlight inflation risks to temper dovish bets. Retail sales Tuesday will be the last key data before the decision. Global markets were subdued: oil ticked higher on Ukraine-Russia tensions, the dollar eased, and Asian stocks firmed with South Korea’s Kospi hitting records. The Bank of Canada may also cut this week, while the BoE and BoJ are likely to stay on hold. Traders are watching today’s Empire State manufacturing survey (8:30 AM EDT), the Senate vote on Fed nominee Stephen Miran, speeches from ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel, and EU Council President Costa’s visit to Cyprus ahead of its 2026 presidency.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by ProfessorSingapore
Nas100 – Trading Zones to Watch Near HighsZone 1 – All-Time High Supply (24,133 – 24,142) This zone sits right at the all-time high, where volatility and liquidity are elevated. Sellers are likely to defend aggressively here, making sharp rejections common. A clean breakout and acceptance above would show strong buyer conviction and could trigger momentum into new record territory. Zone 2 – High Liquidity Demand (24,014 – 24,026) This area reflects a high-liquidity pocket where buyers previously absorbed heavy selling pressure. Pullbacks into this zone may attract renewed demand, offering potential long setups. If the zone breaks decisively, however, it risks flipping into resistance and signaling continuation lower. Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously constructive. Optimism is fueled by strong tech leadership and expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, while softer labor data and cooling producer prices have eased pressure on yields. Still, inflation readings surprised slightly to the upside last week, reminding traders that risks remain. With price now testing all-time highs, volatility is elevated and the market’s mood is fragile momentum is there, but it requires confirmation through clean breakouts rather than relying on hope alone.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
Nas100 – Today’s Key Trading ZonesTrading zones Zone 1 – All-Time High Supply (24,014 – 24,026) This zone sits at the all-time high, where volatility and liquidity hunts are often at their peak. Sellers are likely to defend aggressively here, making sharp rejections common. A clean breakout and hold above would indicate strong buyer conviction and could open the door for further momentum into uncharted territory. Zone 2 – High Liquidity Demand (23,920 – 23,930) This demand zone represents a high-liquidity pocket created by prior consolidation. Buyers are expected to step in here on pullbacks, providing potential long setups. However, if the zone fails to hold, it may flip into resistance and trigger continuation downside moves. With price trading near all-time highs, only two zones are marked today. Volatility at record levels makes price action less structured, leaving limited data to build reliable zones from. As a result, focus remains on the all-time high supply zone above and the high-liquidity demand zone below as the key areas for potential reaction. Sentiment in the US100 is cautiously positive but fragile. Strong tech momentum and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the index, while softer labor data and cooling producer prices ease pressure on yields. Still, higher-than-expected CPI reminds investors that inflation risks remain, keeping markets on edge near all-time highs.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
Futures rise as traders await inflation data, Fed cuts in focusFutures rise as traders await inflation data, Fed cuts in focus U.S. stock index futures rose slightly on Thursday as traders awaited key consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. ET, expected to show higher August inflation. Wednesday’s softer PPI report fueled bets on Fed rate cuts next week, with markets fully pricing in a 25-bps move and assigning a 10% chance of 50 bps. Weak labor data reinforced easing expectations, while jobless claims numbers are also due today. The AI trade revived midweek, lifting chipmakers and utilities tied to data centers. Oracle gained 1.6% premarket, while gun stocks extended gains after news of a campus shooting. Despite September’s poor historical record, Wall Street has opened the month on a strong note, with strategists seeing Fed cuts as the key driver of market direction.
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by ProfessorSingapore
NAS100 Trading Zones – Volatility at All-Time HighsZone 1 – 23,980 – 23,991 This zone sits just below the all-time high, making it a critical supply area where volatility tends to spike. Sellers are likely to defend here aggressively, and false breakouts are common as liquidity is swept around all-time highs. A clean breakout and hold above would signal strong buyer conviction and could fuel a momentum push into uncharted territory. Zone 2 – 23,765 – 23,781 This zone represents a key demand area where buyers previously stepped in to defend intraday lows. A sharp bounce here would confirm renewed buying interest, while a decisive break below would shift control back to sellers and could trigger a deeper correction. With price trading near all-time highs, caution is warranted. Volatility often spikes in these areas, as liquidity hunts and false breakouts are common. Traders should be selective, waiting for clear confirmation before committing to new positions. Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously positive, supported by strong momentum in select tech names and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts after softer labor data and a sharp drop in producer prices. Lower input costs are viewed as supportive for corporate margins in the near term, while falling yields continue to benefit growth stocks. Still, the broader backdrop is fragile, as weaker job revisions and signs of cooling demand remind investors that economic momentum is slowing.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
NAS100 - Trading Zones and Market SentimentZone 1 – 23,926 – 23,943 This is a critical resistance area sitting just below the all-time high. Sellers are likely positioned here, making it a strong zone for potential rejection. A clean breakout and successful retest, however, would flip the zone into demand and open the path toward fresh highs. Zone 2 – 23,854 – 23,880 Formed around recent consolidation and breakout structure. Buyers are expected to defend this zone on pullbacks, creating potential long opportunities. If broken decisively, it could turn into resistance, signaling weakening momentum. Zone 3 – 23,782 – 23,798 A deeper demand level aligned with prior absorption and intraday lows. Likely to attract liquidity sweeps and sharp reactions on first touch. A failure here would shift control back to sellers and suggest a larger corrective move. Sentiment in US100 Today: Between Optimism and Caution Retail investors pull back from most Big Tech, except Nvidia and Palantir. According to Charles Schwab’s STAX activity, retail investors have generally reduced exposure to large-cap tech stocks, with the exception of Nvidia and Palantir, which both saw significant net buying. This points to rising risk appetite, particularly toward select growth names in the tech sector. Job revision data weakens the economy, but keeps rate expectations alive. Wall Street remains subdued but continues to lean on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, after job growth was revised down by nearly 1 million over the past 12 months. Conclusion: Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously optimistic, driven by a strong tech sector and dovish Fed expectations but the foundation is fragile, especially in light of weaker economic signals.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday. In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO. 1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis. Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines. Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips. Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating. Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment. Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel. 2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings) Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal. Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move. 3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns. Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals. Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ. 4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat Bullish Scenario (60% Probability): The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm. Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability): This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal. Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability): A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative. Trading & Investment Implication For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity. For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up. For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses. Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend. The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent. Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
FX:NAS100Long
by fxtraderanthony
Nasdaq-100: Trading Levels to WatchKey Zones Today Supply Zones (Red) Zone 1: 23,926 – 23,943 This is the upper resistance zone, located just below all time high. Sellers are likely positioned here, making it a strong area for potential rejection. A confirmed breakout and retest, however, would indicate buyer strength and could open the path toward new all-time highs. Zone 2: 23,854 – 23,880 A key intraday supply area with multiple prior rejections. Often acts as a liquidity pool, where failed breakouts can trigger sharp downside moves. A clean break and hold above would flip this zone into short-term support for continuation longs. Demand Zones (Green) Zone 3: 23,708 – 23,734 Formed around the recent breakout structure, this zone is expected to attract buyers on pullbacks. A sharp bounce here would confirm demand strength, while a decisive break below flips the area into resistance and could trigger continuation shorts. Zone 4: 23,551 – 23,577 A deeper support level, aligned with prior consolidation and buyer absorption. Strong bounce potential on first retest, but repeated tests weaken the level. A breakdown here would shift momentum clearly in favor of sellers and open space for a larger downside move. Nas100 - Cautiously Bullish, Waiting on Momentum Sentiment in the US100 is cautiously positive but fragile. Large-cap tech continues to support the index, and hopes of imminent Fed rate cuts provide additional tailwinds. Still, the index remains below its all-time high, and uncertainty around economic data and geopolitics keeps investors from going all-in. In short: there is momentum and optimism, but it rests on a fragile foundation where a single weak data point could quickly shift sentiment.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
US100 – Today’s Key Trading ZonesHere are today’s trading zones for the US100. The levels are not fixed buy or sell signals, but decision areas where price often accelerates. Rejections can set up counter-trades, while clean breaks and retests can create continuation opportunities. Zone 1 This area represents a major resistance close to the historical top. Price entering this zone carries a high probability of seller absorption and sharp rejection. A clean breakout and hold above would shift sentiment and open the door for new highs. Zone 2 A key decision area from previous weekly highs. Often acts as a liquidity pool where breakout traps are common. A strong rejection can offer short opportunities, while a confirmed break and retest may flip the zone into support. Zone 3 This level has repeatedly attracted strong reactions and carries high resting liquidity. Expect aggressive order flow here – either a sharp bounce for longs or, if broken, a continuation short on retest. Zone 4 Formed around a strong 4H engulfing pattern and aligned with yesterday’s low. Buyers are likely to defend this level, making it a key intraday demand zone. A decisive break below would indicate seller dominance and could accelerate downside momentum. Market Sentiment – Cautious Optimism Overall sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously optimistic, supported by strong performance in Big Tech and expectations of a more dovish Fed. Still, the backdrop is fragile given broader macroeconomic signals, with investors balancing optimism against underlying economic risks. Big Tech Drives the Market Large-cap tech stocks led the market higher at record pace. Alphabet surged nearly 9%, Apple advanced 3–4%, and Tesla gained about 1.4%, boosted by a favorable antitrust ruling and strong technical momentum. Alphabet even reached a new record high, underscoring the sector’s ability to lift the entire index. Macro Data – Mixed but Supportive Weaker job openings data reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts, a positive driver for growth stocks as lower bond yields support risk appetite. At the same time, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.0, marking a third straight month of expansion and showing resilience in the services sector despite manufacturing weakness and a cooling labor market.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
US100 on Shaky Ground – What Traders Should Watch TodayZones in Focus The marked zones on the chart are not fixed buy or sell levels but decision areas where price is likely to accelerate and create short-term opportunities. Red zones (potential supply): If price trades into these areas and shows rejection, it can set up short positions. A clean break above, however, flips the zone into potential support, opening the door for continuation longs. Green zones (potential demand): If price reaches these areas and bounces sharply, it can provide long setups. A decisive break lower, by contrast, turns the zone into resistance, creating opportunities for continuation shorts on a retest. The framework is built around letting price action on the 5-minute chart confirm the reaction: rejections favor counter-trades, while breakouts and retests favor continuation in the direction of the move. The Market Is Sending Mixed Signals The latest JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings falling to 7.18 million in July, below expectations of 7.38 million and down from 7.36 million in June. That makes it the lowest reading in ten months – and for the first time since the COVID era, there are more unemployed workers than available jobs. For equities, this kind of data is a double-edged sword. On one hand, fewer openings cool the labor market and strengthen the case for earlier Fed rate cuts. On the other, if the trend deepens, it signals weaker economic momentum and risks feeding through to lower earnings growth. Mood Check: Nasdaq Between Hope and Fear The mood in the Nasdaq-100 is cautiously optimistic, yet undeniably fragile. The bright side: Big Tech carried the index higher yesterday, with Alphabet rallying 9% and Apple 3–4%. That added roughly 1% to the Nasdaq-100 and reminded us how concentrated the index still is – a single positive headline can shift sentiment fast. At the same time, falling yields and softer labor data fuel hopes that the Fed may soon move toward cuts, a clear tailwind for growth stocks. The risk side: Macro signals tell a different story. The ISM confirmed that manufacturing remains in contraction, and JOLTS made clear that the labor market is cooling. Inflation pressure may be easing, but so is economic momentum. That keeps investors defensive, even as the index rallies. The Bigger Picture Taken together, US100 sentiment is leaning positive in the near term, but the foundation is shaky. Gains are being driven more by mega-cap strength and expectations of rate relief than by broad economic resilience. Until the macro backdrop turns more convincingly, every rally remains vulnerable.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭 📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑: 🏴‍☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy) Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision: • 23200.0 • 23250.0 • 23300.0 • 23350.0 (You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite) 📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan • Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone. • Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs. • This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs. ❓ Why This Works? • Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets. • Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones. • Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry. 🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault) • Thief SL: @23000.0 • Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance. 🎯 Target (Escape Zone) • Overbought + Trap Zone ahead! • Escape target: @23750.0 • Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk. 📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03 📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%) 📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76% 📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48% 😰😊 Fear & Greed Index 📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral) 🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked. 🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment 👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short) 🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short) 🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports. 📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score 📊 Macro Score: 6/10 Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving. Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity. ⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate) VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations. 💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10 Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks. 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook ✅ Bullish (Long): 60% Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech. ⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40% Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures. 💡 Key Takeaways 📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%). 😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed. 📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports. 🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders. 📊 Related Pairs to Watch FOREXCOM:SPX500 TVC:DJI TVC:VIX NASDAQ:NDX FX:USDOLLAR ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The-Thief
NAS100 - Stock Market, in the Work Week!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its short-term descending channel. If this channel is maintained and the specified range is reached, a close sale can be made with a suitable reward. Economists anticipate that customs tariffs will push consumer prices higher while slowing economic growth in the coming months. Inflation is expected to accelerate, though not to the extreme levels of the 1970s when the term “stagflation” was coined to describe the combination of high inflation and economic stagnation. Unlike a recession—where the economy contracts and prices fall—stagflation features rising prices despite economic weakness. The U.S. economy could be heading toward a 1970s-style stagflationary environment, though analysts believe this time it will be far less severe. Many experts argue that the U.S. is on the verge of a period of sluggish growth paired with accelerating inflation. The root cause lies in President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which simultaneously raise consumer costs and weigh on the labor market. However, economists expect this inflationary wave to be much milder than the double-digit annual increases that strained household budgets in the 1970s. On the corporate front, Nvidia released its second-quarter earnings last week. Revenue reached $46.7 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $46.23 billion. The company’s data center unit—the main growth driver—generated $41.1 billion, slightly below the $41.29 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.05, while the adjusted gross margin stood at 72.7%. Looking ahead, Nvidia projected third-quarter revenue of around $54 billion, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. Its board also approved an additional $60 billion share repurchase program. Regarding China, the company reported zero sales of H20 chips to Chinese clients during Q2 and stated that no shipments are planned for that market in the near future. In the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the Chinese market could present a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia this year. He estimated annual growth in China at nearly 50%, noting that the country is the world’s second-largest computing market and home to half of global AI researchers. Huang stressed that maintaining a presence in China is vital for the company’s long-term future, even amid ongoing political and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. On the monetary policy side, UBS warned that weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve—especially following Trump’s threat to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook—could have significant economic consequences. In its analysis of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, UBS described it as “classic Powell”: hinting at the possibility of a September rate cut to offset tariff effects but lacking a broader long-term framework for the evolving economy. UBS emphasized that failure to strongly defend Fed independence could heighten political risks and destabilize markets.The bank warned that if the central bank comes under political influence, potential outcomes include the reemergence of inflationary instability, a one-percentage-point increase in real borrowing costs, and negative effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activity. This week begins with one fewer trading day due to the Labor Day holiday, yet the economic calendar remains packed, with the labor market at the center of attention. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August will be released, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday. Thursday will be particularly important, bringing the August ADP private payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Services Index—all at once. These data points are especially significant given the recent large revisions to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which have renewed focus on the degree of convergence or divergence between ADP and NFP figures. Historically, ADP and NFP reports have often diverged, leaving traders mispositioned when relying too heavily on ADP data. A recent example occurred in July, when ADP reported a decline of 33,000 jobs, while NFP the following day showed a gain of 147,000—well above expectations of 110,000. However, after NFP revisions, the actual trend proved more consistent with ADP’s numbers. The most important event of the week will take place on Friday: the release of the August U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Investors will be monitoring it closely, as any signs of labor market weakness could reinforce expectations for a Fed rate cut in mid-September. Despite growing stagflation risks and heightened market volatility, Bank of America (BofA) suggested that autumn could be an attractive entry point for bullish investors. The bank cautioned that while volatility may exert short-term downward pressure, potential pullbacks could serve as buying opportunities. The VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level of the year following Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. Still, concerns about stretched stock valuations, a potential AI-driven bubble, and political risks tied to Fed independence suggest that this calm may not last.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 Overextended: Support or Further Downside Ahead?The NAS100 is currently overextended following Friday’s strong rally. From a technical perspective, I’m anticipating a potential retracement toward equilibrium, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci level of the prior price swing. This zone will be key in determining whether price establishes support and resumes its bullish continuation, or if a breakdown occurs that could signal further downside risk. (Not financial advice.)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by fxtraderanthony
4
NAS100 3 Drive Pattern Correction Wait For BoS📊 The NAS100 has pulled back after a strong bullish run and is currently facing some pressure 📉. I’m watching a three-drive pattern that appears to have extended into a fourth drive, followed by a corrective phase 🔄. From a smart money perspective, liquidity is often targeted after a strong expansion in trend — patterns like the three-drive can frequently lead to a deeper retracement before the continuation resumes. With that in mind, I’m anticipating the possibility of a further pullback before positioning for a potential long setup on a bullish break of structure 🚀 (not financial advice).
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by fxtraderanthony
NASDAQ After the Fireworks: Bearish Setup LoadedAfter the classic 4th of July rally, I stepped in on the short side of Nasdaq, targeting 22,000 and 21,400 zones. The market structure shows exhaustion, and with the cloud retest failing to hold new highs, I positioned accordingly. Technical: • Price stalled at prior expansion highs with tight compression near 23,000. • Daily FibCloud offered resistance confirmation. • Bearish risk-reward skew forms after extended rally and thin retraces. • Volume divergence spotted. Fundamentals: Multiple overlapping uncertainties: • Trump confirmed tariffs will take effect on August 1, threatening a 10% surcharge on BRICS-aligned nations. • Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates several trade deal announcements within 48h—but stresses quality over quantity. • Bank of America maintains its base case of 0 rate cuts in 2025, citing strong economic data and sticky inflation risks. The combination of tariff escalation, hawkish monetary expectations, and global trade friction creates a perfect backdrop for volatility and correction—especially in overextended tech indices like the Nasdaq. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by AR33_