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Wave Analysis

Bitcoin - Must go down to retest this pattern + new ATH soon!Bitcoin recently broke out of the head and shoulders pattern and made a pretty strong uptrend. That's a sign of strength that Bitcoin will be ready to continue in the uptrend and go to a new all time high, but not yet! I still think that Bitcoin should retest the previous Head and Shoulders pattern at around 113,300 USD. It's because this is an important liquidity level and there are a lot of orders from traders, in other words - it's a strong point of interest. Alt season continues, so is it still good to hold Bitcoin? Not really, in my opinion you should be selling Bitcoin and prepare for a huge 2026 bear market. I expect Bitcoin to go down to 60k - 70k, but this is for another analysis. I really do not recommend buying Bitcoin, rather focus on altcoins, such as LINK or ADA. There is a potential of 50% to 200% profit in the next weeks, this is not possible on Bitcoin! Bitcoin is relatively weak, that's why a retest of the pattern makes so much sense. In a strong bull market it may go up, but in a weak bull market we see a lot of retests. It's even possible that Bitcoin will go a little bit below the head and shoulders neckline to test the 112k level or so. So be prepared for it! Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Xanrox
130
1000 USD: Coffee Bull Market Overview: Prices set to DOUBLE ☕ Coffee (Arabica, ICE “KC”) — Outlook to 2026 Where we are: Nearby Arabica trades ~405–410 US¢/lb after a parabolic 2025 on weather stress, thin deliverable stocks, and policy shocks. The Dec ’25 contract is ~400 ¢/lb. Big picture 2025/26: Official global production is pegged at a record ~178.7 M bags (robusta-led) versus ~169.4 M bags consumption; ending stocks remain tight near ~22.8 M. Inside that headline, arabica is the pinch point: Brazil’s arabica is down year over year on heat/drought, and multiple private houses flag an arabica deficit on the order of ~–8.5 M bags for 2025/26. ________________________________________ 🤖 1) Brazil 2025 flowering & 2026 crop execution (↑ to 9.5/10) Why it matters: Brazil is the swing producer for arabica; 2026 outcomes hinge on Sep–Oct 2025 flowering and the trees’ carryover stress from 2024–25 dryness/frost. Local co-ops in Cerrado report frost-related damage with six-figure bag impacts to 2026 potential. What we’re seeing: The latest national estimate cuts 2025 output to ~55.2 M bags total (arabica ~35.2 M), confirming a weaker arabica “off” year. Talk of a “super 2026” has faded unless rains arrive and stick through flowering and early fruit set. Why 9.5/10? A missed flowering or poor fruit set is the cleanest path to a 2026 arabica shortfall big enough to rip futures. ________________________________________ 🌍 2) U.S. 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee (new 9.0/10) Why it matters: The U.S. typically imports ~8 M bags from Brazil. A 50% tariff (effective Aug 6, 2025) distorts flows, inflates U.S. landed costs, and channels more hedging into NY “KC,” structurally supporting futures. Brazil trade groups directly linked August’s vertical move to the tariff shock. Why 9.0/10? If the tariff persists into 2026, basis stays elevated and retail prices remain sticky even if global aggregates look “adequate.” ________________________________________ 🧭 3) EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) go-live (↑ 8.8/10) Why it matters: Traceability/geolocation rules begin Dec 30, 2025 for large/medium operators (SMEs Jun 30, 2026). Compliance temporarily shrinks “eligible” supply and reprices differentials. Why 8.8/10? Early-2026 could see EU-grade shortages, wider diffs, and higher KC via arbitrage. ________________________________________ 📉 4) Exchange (ICE) certified stock drawdown (↑ 8.5/10) Why it matters: Deliverable supply amplifies squeezes. Arabica certified stocks ~0.67–0.78 M bags in early September—thin for the season. Why 8.5/10? With low float, any weather or logistics hiccup can air-pocket futures into blow-off spikes. ________________________________________ 🌡️ 5) ENSO/La Niña watch & Brazil rainfall tail-risk (holds 8.0/10) Why it matters: La Niña-skewed patterns risk ill-timed rain (flower knock-off) or too-little rain (poor fruit set) in Minas Gerais during Sep–Oct. Early September dryness was flagged; late-September storms are pivotal. Why 8.0/10? The timing of rain matters as much as totals; a mis-timed pattern is enough to dent 2026 yields. ________________________________________ 🇻🇳 6) Vietnam robusta recovery vs. water stress (↑ 7.8/10) Why it matters: Robusta tightness forced blend shifts. A rebound toward ~31 M bags in 2025/26 would cap KC via spread relief; persistent water stress/tree fatigue would keep robusta tight, forcing arabica to carry the world. Why 7.8/10? Binary swing factor: a real rebound cools spreads; a miss extends the squeeze into 2026. ________________________________________ 🏛️ 7) Policy & trade fragmentation beyond U.S. tariffs (↑ 7.5/10) Why it matters: Frictions and exemptions remain fluid. Retaliation or parallel measures could redirect flows to EU/Asia, move basis, and distort origin diffs. Why 7.5/10? The tariff is already biting; add-ons would compound tightness. ________________________________________ 💵 8) FX (BRL) & producer selling (↑ 7.0/10) Why it matters: A stronger BRL curbs farmer selling; a weak BRL unleashes hedges and pressures KC. Policy/inflation noise keeps BRL volatile. Why 7.0/10? Not first-order, but magnifies weather/policy shocks. ________________________________________ 🏭 9) Demand elasticity & substitution (holds 6.8/10) Why it matters: 2025 sticker shock clipped demand by roughly –0.5%. 2026 could stabilize if prices plateau; if retail rises further (tariffs/EUDR), more down-trading or substitution (robusta/other beverages) caps upside. Why 6.8/10? A genuine headwind to the $10/lb path unless supply breaks further. ________________________________________ 🚢 10) Logistics, certifications & differentials (new 6.5/10) Why it matters: Tight washed/tenderable pools, evolving ICE rules/diffs, and shipping bottlenecks can widen basis and squeeze deliverables. Why 6.5/10? Secondary, but adds fuel to any fundamental spark. ________________________________________ 📈 11) Spec positioning & financial flows (↑ 6.5/10) Why it matters: 2025’s run featured panic buying in a low-float market. Another weather scare + thin stocks invites CTA/momentum flows through round-numbers. Why 6.5/10? Not fundamental—but can yank KC vertically. ________________________________________ 🧪 12) “Record global production” optics vs. arabica reality (new 6.0/10) Why it matters: The record headline is robusta-led. Inside, Brazil arabica declines and exporters stay cautious. The market trades the arabica bottleneck, not the aggregate. Why 6.0/10? This optics gap sustains volatility—bulls can still win if arabica under-delivers. ________________________________________ Updated Catalyst Scorecard Rank Catalyst Score 1 Brazil 2025 flowering → 2026 crop 9.5 2 U.S. 50% tariff on Brazil 9.0 3 EU EUDR (Dec 30, 2025 start) 8.8 4 Low ICE certified stocks 8.5 5 ENSO/La Niña rainfall risk 8.0 6 Vietnam robusta recovery risk 7.8 7 Wider trade policy fragmentation 7.5 8 FX (BRL) & selling behavior 7.0 9 Demand elasticity/substitution 6.8 10 Logistics, diffs & certification frictions 6.5 11 Spec/CTA flows 6.5 12 “Record crop” optics vs arabica bottleneck 6.0 ________________________________________ 📊 Supply–Demand Snapshot — Why Arabica Is the Pinch Point • World 2025/26: Production ~178.7 M; consumption ~169.4 M; ending stocks ~22.8 M (still lean). • Brazil arabica: ~40.9 M (down ~2.8 M YoY); robusta records elsewhere (Brazil/Indonesia); Vietnam recovery penciled near 31 M. • Private balance: Arabica deficit ~–8.5 M for 2025/26 (vs ~–5.5 M in 2024/25). • ICE plumbing: Certified arabica ~0.67–0.78 M bags and trending lower → thin deliverables, higher tail-risk premia. ________________________________________ 🔍 Recent Headlines You Should Know • KC spiked toward/above $4/lb in early 2025 on panic buying, weather, and policy shocks. • “Record global crop” headlines coexist with lower Brazil arabica and tight ending stocks. • U.S. 50% Brazil tariff (Aug 6, 2025) credited with a ~30% surge in August. • EUDR deferred to Dec 30, 2025 for large/medium operators; compliance scramble into 1H26. • Early-Sep 2025 Minas dryness kept flowering risk live; markets watching late-Sep showers. ________________________________________ 🎯 Street & Agency Views (as of Sep 2025) • Early-2025 consensus had end-2025 ~$2.95/lb, expecting mean reversion. The market disagreed post-tariffs. • One multilateral outlook saw >50% y/y up in 2025, then –15% in 2026, assuming supply normalization and Colombia recovery. • Several trade houses continue to highlight a widening arabica deficit into 2025/26. Takeaway: Consensus expects some 2026 cooling, but policy + compliance + arabica weather can overwhelm “aggregate surplus” narratives. ________________________________________ 🧭 Pathways to 1,000 ¢/lb in 2026 (Aggressive Target) We’re already near 400 ¢. To reach $10/lb, the market needs a stack of arabica-specific shocks that persist into 2026: 1. Brazil under-delivers in 2026: Patchy/failed flowering (Sep–Oct ’25) and/or heat during fruit set reduce yields; 2026 arabica ≤ ~38–40 M. 2. Tariffs persist through 2026: U.S. 50% duty remains in force, lifting U.S. basis and rerouting flows; fewer tenderable lots into ICE. 3. EUDR friction bites in 1H26: Non-compliant lots stranded; compliant premiums surge; differentials widen and pull KC higher. 4. Certified stocks < ~500k bags: Roaster drawdown + limited grading/tendering triggers backwardation and squeeze mechanics. 5. Vietnam misses rebound: Water stress or tree fatigue keeps robusta tight; arabica must carry blends globally. 6. Pro-cyclical flows: Thin deliverables + headlines = momentum/CTA accelerants through round numbers (500 → 700 → 900 → 1,000). Probability assessment: Not the base case, but plausible if two or more of (1–4) coincide while financial flows amplify. Call it ~20–25% conditional on Q4’25 weather and policy staying restrictive. ________________________________________ 🧮 Scenario Framework (NY Arabica, nearby; end-2026) • Bull (30%) — Squeeze: Brazil 2026 < 40 M; tariff persists; EUDR tight; certifieds < 0.5 M; Vietnam under-shoots. Price: 800–1,000 ¢/lb (blow-off spikes possible above 1,000 on transient squeezes). • Base (50%) — Elevated & volatile: Brazil 2026 ~41–44 M; tariff partially eased or offset; EUDR frictions fade by 2H26; Vietnam rebounds. Price: 450–650 ¢/lb with episodic spikes on weather or logistics. • Bear (20%) — Normalization: Strong Brazil flowering → 2026 ≥ 45 M; tariff rolled back; EUDR compliance smoother; certifieds rebuild > 1.2 M; demand softens. Price: 280–420 ¢/lb (vol still above pre-2024 norms). ________________________________________ 🗓️ Watchlist & Timeline (what to track) • Sep–Oct 2025: Brazil flowering windows (Minas/Cerrado/N. São Paulo). Look for rain onset, follow-up, and heat bursts. • Nov–Dec 2025: Fruit set confirmation; disease incidence; updated 2026 potential. • Dec 30, 2025: EUDR go-live (large/medium operators). • Q1–Q2 2026: Compliance bottlenecks, EU diffs, tenderable quality flows into ICE. • All 2025/26: Tariff status, BRL swings, certified stock trajectory, Vietnam water/harvest updates. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Matrix (what flips the call bearish) • Timely rains in Sep–Oct 2025 and mild temps → robust fruit set; Brazil 2026 ≥ 45 M. • Tariff rollback or broad exemptions reduce U.S. basis support. • Vietnam outperform (> 31 M) relieves spreads; Indonesia robusta stays strong. • Certified stocks rebuild > 1.2 M bags by mid-2026. • Demand destruction accelerates (retail fatigue, substitution), capping upside. ________________________________________ 📌 Positioning Lens (informational, not advice) • Drivers of upside convexity: Brazil weather into October, policy stickiness (tariff/EUDR), and certified stock path. • Tell-tales of a squeeze: Steepening backwardation, diffs blowing out for compliant washeds, and rapid certified draw alongside rising exchange open interest. • Tell-tales of normalization: Strong flowering reports, improved grading pass-rates, certified rebuilds, and easing EU compliance premia. ________________________________________ Bottom Line • The base case remains elevated and volatile into 2026, not automatic mean reversion. • A credible path to 1,000 ¢/lb exists if Brazil’s 2026 arabica disappoints, policy frictions persist, EUDR pins EU-grade supply, and certifieds fall sub-0.5 M, with CTA flows doing the rest. • Conversely, timely Brazil rains, tariff relief, and a clean EUDR transition cap the rally and pull prices toward the high-$3s/low-$4s.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEELong
by ProjectSyndicate
50
GOLD → Testing 3700. What to expect from the price going forwardFX:XAUUSD continues to rally. Ahead lies the psychological barrier of 3700, where the market may form profit-taking ahead of Tuesday and Wednesday's news... Gold is testing 3700. The bullish trend remains unshakable thanks to a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Expectations of Fed policy easing: There is a high probability of a 25 bps rate cut (possibly even 50 bps) as early as this week. Trump's pressure on Powell reinforces these expectations. Stagflation risks: Slowing growth amid steady inflation increases the appeal of gold as a hedge. Risks: Profit-taking: After a sharp rise, a short-term correction is possible in the psychological target zone of 3700. Retail sales data (today): Weak data will support gold, while strong data may temporarily strengthen the dollar. Fed decision (tomorrow): Even if the rate is lowered, a “sell on the fact” reaction is possible. Resistance levels: 3700, 3710 Support levels: 3685, 3675, 3657 Technically, since the opening of the session, gold has lost part of its daily ATR, and the upward movement may be zigzag-shaped, especially ahead of the news. I expect a correction from the market to 3685-3675 with the aim of rebounding upwards... Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
15
GOLD → A s.triangle against the backdrop of a bullish trend... FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in anticipation of positive news from the Fed, namely a cut in interest rates. Against this backdrop, the dollar is falling, which only supports the price of gold... Gold is trading in a sideways range around $3650 at the start of a week packed with central bank events. Despite the lack of a clear direction, the metal is finding support thanks to several factors. Key drivers: Weak economic data from China, anticipation of the Fed's decision: On Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points, but there is a chance of 50 basis points. This supports gold. The tone of Powell's comments will determine expectations for further cuts. Technically, gold remains stable ahead of key events. China's weak economy and the Fed's dovish policy limit the potential for decline. A break above $3650 is possible with dovish signals from the Fed or an escalation of trade risks. Resistance levels: 3646, 3657, 3675 Support levels: 3630, 3620, 3600 As part of the formation of a “symmetrical triangle” consolidation, I will consider a retest of the consolidation support with the possibility of further growth (distribution). Sincerely, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
22
Gold Surges - Shining Bright In Green.👋Hello everyone, what do you think about OANDA:XAUUSD trend? Yesterday, gold continued to shine with another strong session, climbing close to the 3700 USD target. At the time of writing, it’s consolidating around 3680 USD, showing that bullish momentum is still intact. Gold started the week trading near record highs, supported by a weaker US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields, as investors prepare for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting—an event that could set the tone for the rest of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to its lowest level in a week against major currencies, making gold more attractive. The next upside targets appear to be 3700 USD, followed by 3730 and 3750 USD in the short term. What’s your outlook on gold today?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Kevinn_Nguyen
23
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸Bullish Movement From : 3645 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
37
AUDUSD – Testing the 0.6670 Resistance -->Breakout ? Hello everyone, let’s discuss OANDA:AUDUSD ! Today, the pair maintains its bullish momentum, trading near 0.6670 since the start of the session. The Aussie dollar is strengthening as demand for risk-sensitive assets rises, fueled by solid expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its monetary easing campaign this Wednesday. Technical View: AUDUSD remains highly attractive as price continues to respect the ascending trendline, supported by EMA 34/89. At the moment, it’s testing the 0.6670 resistance zone – a key level that will decide the next move. If the pair holds above the trendline, a breakout above resistance could open the way for higher targets. What do you think? Will AUDUSD break through resistance and launch a fresh rally? Share your views below!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
7
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸Bullish Reversal : 3682 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
7
Tesla - Here we goooooo!🚗Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is finally breaking out: 🔎Analysis summary: Finally, after a consolidation of four years, Tesla is attempting another all time high breakout. With the bullish triangle coming to an end, bulls are dominating this stock. It just comes down to the next couple of months but a triangle breakout remains far more likely. 📝Levels to watch: $400 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
18
BTCUSD – Aiming for Higher Targets 👋Hello everyone, great to see you again! What are your thoughts on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ? Here’s my bullish outlook: Bitcoin is still holding its upward structure within the ascending channel. After bouncing from the support area around 110,000 USD, price has regained momentum and is now testing nearby resistance at the time of writing, aiming for the first resistance target at 123,500 USD. If this resistance is broken, the bullish momentum could continue strongly, with higher targets at the upper boundary of the channel. Both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA are supporting this outlook. As long as BTC stays above the ascending trendline, the bullish scenario remains dominant. This could be the chance for buyers to keep control of the market. Do you agree? Share your thoughts with me!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
7
Gold Price Today – Buy or Sell?👋Hello everyone, it's great to be back. Let’s discuss OANDA:XAUUSD ! Here’s my short-term outlook: XAUUSD is currently facing a new resistance zone around 3,655 USD, showing potential signs of a Triple Top pattern. The price has tested this level multiple times, and if it can’t break through, we might see a pullback towards support—first around 3,620 USD, then possibly down to 3,600 USD. The bullish trend will be maintained as long as this support level holds. Outlook: This week promises to be an exciting trading week with several important news events scheduled to be released: -US Retail Sales (Tuesday) -Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) -Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday). The next move will depend on these news events. Keep a close eye on the upcoming price action! What’s your take? Do you expect gold to rise or fall? Leave your thoughts in the comments or like the post if you agree with this analysis. Wishing you a fantastic trading week ahead!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Kevinn_Nguyen
31
EURUSD: Is the USD Weakness Already Priced In?Is the USD Weakness Already Priced In? The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at this meeting. Right now, the main story is that this expectation is driving the USD lower. But is that really the reason behind the weakness? The USD has often shown weakness no matter the news — weak on good data, weak on bad data, weak when the Fed holds rates, and even weaker now as the Fed prepares to cut. It almost looks like a no-brainer. If everything is already priced in, the USD could drop further right after the Fed cuts rates. Still, if the unusual USD weakness and EUR strength continue, EUR/USD may keep rising. Be cautious though — if it breaks above the red zone, it could be a false breakout before falling again. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
7
TESLA - Robotaxi will drive the price above 1000This is not a short-term trade as you know from me on FX, Crypto and Indices. This is buy and hold investment. I got already good bag of share and Im still adding without trying to time if perfectly, but now I think its time to buy bigger positions. Tesla is my 3rd biggest position after the Bitcoin and Strategy (MicroStrategy). Many people see it only as an EV cars company, but it's not all what they do, just read bellow to see why I see a huge potential in this company. 📍Why Tesla is Considered a Top Investment Tesla stands out as a leading player in the EV market, with a strong brand and a history of delivering innovative products. In 2024, it produced about 459,000 vehicles and delivered over 495,000 in the fourth quarter alone, showcasing its ability to meet growing demand Tesla Fourth Quarter 2024 Production, Deliveries & Deployments. 💾Financially, Tesla reported $97,690 million in total revenue for 2024, with the automotive segment contributing $87,604 million and energy solutions adding $10,086 million Tesla, Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2024. This diversification into energy, alongside investments in autonomous driving, positions Tesla for long-term growth, making it attractive for investors seeking exposure to future trends in sustainability and technology. 📍What Tesla Does Beyond EV Cars Beyond EVs, Tesla is deeply involved in energy solutions: 📍Solar Products: Offers solar panels and solar roofs for clean energy generation. 📍Energy Storage: Provides Powerwall for homes and Megapack for large-scale projects, helping stabilize grids and manage energy costs. 📍Charging Infrastructure: Operates a network of Supercharger stations, increasingly open to other EVs. Services: Includes vehicle maintenance through service centers and body shops. 📍Robotaxi: Plans to launch a fully autonomous ride-hailing service in June 2025 in Austin, Texas, potentially opening new revenue streams Tesla's robotaxis by June? Musk turns to Texas for hands-off regulation. 📍Tesla Optimus: Developing a general-purpose robotic humanoid for tasks like household chores or industrial work, which could lead to new markets. This expansion into energy and services, along with unexpected ventures like Robotaxi and Tesla Optimus, enhances Tesla's role in the transition to sustainable energy and technology, offering benefits like grid stability and potential robotics applications. The growth in the energy segment, with a 67% increase from 2023 to 2024, highlights Tesla's expanding role in sustainability, potentially attracting investors focused on long-term trends. Additionally, Tesla's commitment to innovation, particularly in autonomous driving technology, is noteworthy. The company is developing features like Full Self-Driving (FSD), which could open new revenue streams, such as robotaxi services, enhancing its investment appeal. 🤔I think Optimus and Robotaxi will exceed rapidly exceed their EV cars revenue. Elon musk is predicing over 1000% growth in 5 years. Which would be way above $2900 without stocks splits. I m a bit conservative and I think we can go somewhere between 3 - 4 standard deviations. Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader! “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Perfectly nailed bottom around 200 and our positions are now 50% in profit good luck David Perk ⚔
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by David_Perk
113
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸Bullish Movement from - 147.350 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Short
by Path_Of_Hanzo
3
Bearish Outlook: AUDUSD on Track Toward 0.66210Good day everyone, Ken here! I’ve been following AUDUSD rather closely, and it’s enjoyed a strong bullish move recently. Yet in my experience, such rallies rarely continue unchecked, and I sense this one may be nearing its peak. There are subtle signs of sellers beginning to position themselves. My attention is firmly on the 0.66210 area – a level I consider crucial. Should price provide a clear confirmation here, not merely through candle formations but also through volume behaviour, I would view it as a potential entry point. Naturally, the bullish scenario hasn’t vanished entirely. But for it to hold, buyers will need to demonstrate far greater conviction than they’ve shown so far. That’s my perspective for now. How do you see it – do you share this view, or does the chart tell you a different story?
Short
by Kenn_Nguyen
5
EUR/USD BEFORE FOMC VIEWOANDA:EURUSD Main Trend: The 4-hour chart clearly shows that EURUSD is in a strong uptrend, confirmed by the ascending trendline. Market Structure: After a breakout above the previous high, the price has created a new demand zone, labelled as "CP - ORDER". This zone is located roughly between 1.17600 and 1.17700. Footprint Analysis: The 1-hour footprint chart provides confirmation of the bullish momentum. It shows large volumes and significant positive delta (more buy orders than sell orders) being executed on the strong upward candles. Key Observation: The most recent bullish candle on the footprint chart (around 20:00) has a very large positive delta (+681) and high volume (12.19K), indicating strong buying pressure is driving the price up. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue. Trading Plan (BUY Plan) Based on this analysis, the primary strategy is to wait for a pullback and look for a buying opportunity, in line with the current upward trend. Entry: Wait for the price to retrace back to the CP - ORDER demand zone, which is around 1.17600 - 1.17700. This area is expected to contain significant pending orders. Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the low of the demand zone, at approximately 1.17100, or as marked on the chart. This position is also below the trendline, providing protection against deeper pullbacks. Take Profit (TP) Targets: Target 1: The most recent high, at around 1.18200. Target 2: You can hold the position to aim for higher levels, following the market's upward momentum. The ultimate target, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, could be the 1.19000 level or even higher. Conclusion This trading plan is a clear long setup based on a combination of technical analysis (uptrend and demand zone) and order flow analysis (strong positive volume and delta). However, you should always keep the following in mind: Make sure the price actually pulls back to the CP - ORDER zone and shows signs of confirmation (e.g., a bullish pin bar, an increase in volume) before entering a trade. Practice strict risk management by adhering to the defined stop-loss level. DXY ANALYSIS IN DONWTREND and High Rate back to Higher OB
Long
by Linda_OneShotTrader
4
Gold breaks through 3700 and will continue to rise! If gold breaks through its recent all-time highs, entering long positions directly will yield profits, with a conservative margin of more than 10 pips. After yesterday's breakout to 3685, it has been consolidating at this high. This morning's low only dipped to around 3674 before rebounding. 3674 marks the previous all-time high, and this minimal pullback suggests further gains are possible. Therefore, entering long positions on pullbacks is a safe bet. Gold's current rebound above 3690 speaks volumes. The key question moving forward is whether this wave can directly break through 3700. It's important to note that short positions should be avoided in the near term. With such a strong trend, a break through 3700 is a snap. If your current trading isn't ideal, and we hope to help you avoid investment pitfalls, please feel free to discuss your options! Analysis suggests short-term support is near 3679-82. A pullback to this level will maintain a bullish trend. The short-term bullish stronghold is 3650-53. As long as the daily closing price does not break below this level, any pullback presents a long opportunity. Maintain a trend-following approach. I'll provide detailed trading strategies during the trading session, so stay tuned. Go long on gold when it retraces to 3677-3682, and add to your position when it retraces to 3656. The target is 3695-3700, with a breakout towards 3710. And! First: 3404 stabilized and then surged strongly to 3578, where it encountered pressure and then retraced to 3510 (a gain of over $170, and the retracing point coincided with the 0.618 level of the previous rally). Second: 3510 stabilized and then made a second push, then encountered pressure at 3675, and then retraced to 3614 (also a gain of $165, and the retracing point coincided with the 0.618 level of the previous rally). Currently, it is in the third confirmed consolidation correction at 3614, having broken through the high yesterday and retracing to an extended period. Based on the previous two waves, if we consider the spatial equivalence of the "$170" range, the corresponding upside potential for this round may be the "3780/90 area," which is the current limit (entering the third stage of the climb, the next step is to follow the trend and buy on the dips).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NormanConrad
2
GBPJPY → Ascending triangle on an upward trend...FX:GBPJPY is attempting to break through the resistance of the ascending triangle consolidation pattern amid the strengthening of the pound sterling, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts... The currency pair is breaking through consolidation resistance amid the growth of the pound sterling. The driver is the expectation of positive news... An attempt to break through resistance is forming, with bulls forming a cascade of support and a local uptrend. If the price closes above 200.27, it will be able to move into a distribution phase. Resistance levels: 200.27, 200.75 Support levels: 200.06, 199.65 Technically, the chart looks quite strong and aimed at continuing the uptrend. If the bulls can consolidate above the specified level of 200.0 - 200.27, then overall we will see a growth phase. Above the current levels, there is a free zone, and up to 208.0, there are practically no obstacles except for local levels that are not capable of reversing the trend... Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
UDSUSD – FVG’s Not Filled, Trend Ain’t Done YetHey There Guys, Post-BOS, the market’s still pushing with upside momentum. That upper +FVG hasn’t been filled yet, so the trend’s not showing signs of fatigue. The Strong Buy Zone below is still in play—if liquidity gets pulled down there, buyers could step in hard. As long as we don’t get a daily close below the main support zone, dips are still buying opportunities. I will share updates here. Every like you send is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these setups. Big thanks to everyone backing me.
CRYPTO:UDSUSDLong
by TraderTilki
6
USDJPY – The Gloomy Days Aren’t Over👋Hello everyone, what’s your take on FX:USDJPY ? The market is showing an interesting contrast: while XAUUSD has been surging thanks to a weaker USD and falling Treasury yields, USDJPY has been under significant pressure. In recent sessions, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has reinforced expectations that the Fed may cut rates soon. This has weighed on the USD, boosting demand for gold as a safe haven. On the flip side, the Japanese yen — long pressured by ultra-loose monetary policy — is now benefiting from USD weakness, intensifying the downward pressure on USDJPY. Technically, USDJPY has been moving sideways for weeks, with momentum fading. Bears are seizing the opportunity, eyeing a potential breakdown below the key 147.0 support level, which could open the door to deeper declines. A clear break beneath this support would confirm the bearish scenario. Let’s watch closely to see how this unfolds. What about you — do you think USDJPY will break lower or hold steady? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by Kevinn_Nguyen
3
Bitcoin BTC price analysis FOMC Fed rate🚀 CRYPTOCAP:BTC price is rising, while altcoins remain silent. What happens tomorrow when the Fed announces its new rate? 🤔 📊 Expectations: 98% believe in a -0.25% cut 2% expect -0.5% and no one believes it will stay unchanged at 4.5% That’s why the market has already priced this in. But tomorrow, once the official decision comes — everything could flip ⚡️ 📉 The chart looks like chaos to most, but a "trained eye" sees harmony: candles moving level to level. 🔑 Key zones for OKX:BTCUSDT : Upper channel boundary: $117,800 – $118,000 (only breakable on massive volumes). September is statistically weak. It opened at $108K, that’s the “zero point”. Logical scenario — dip to $102K. 😬 Worse scenarios: $96,500 GAP close at $91,600 (but you’ll roast us for this one 😂). ❓Your take: By the end of September, will #Bitcoin be above $108K or below? ______________ ◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates! 🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves 🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud.
by P_S_trade
4
UPDATE - GBP/USD Momentum Faces Key Test at ResistanceHi everyone, A quick update on our GBP/USD idea shared earlier in the week: As anticipated, once GBP/USD broke above the 1.35300 level, momentum carried the pair higher, pushing beyond 1.35955 and bringing it within reach of the 1.36850 zone. We expect this area to present notable resistance, and price action here will be key in determining whether buyers have the strength to extend the rally further. A decisive break above 1.36850 would bring the next key upside targets into focus, in particular the 1.37890 level. The impulsive rally from the 1st August low continues to underpin our bullish outlook on GBP/USD. We’ll be monitoring price action closely to see how this structure develops in the sessions ahead. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to continue extending from the 1.20991 January low toward 1.40000 and 1.41700. We’ll keep you updated throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas. Thanks again for all the likes, boosts, comments, and follows — we really appreciate the support! All the best for the week ahead. Trade safe, BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
1