Bullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart followed by a rise to 127.00 levels suggests a retreat from Sep 27 high of 131.94 may have run out of steam and prices could rally further if the hurdle at 127.39 (Falling trend line + 23.6% Fibo) is breached. On the lower side, only a break below 125.84 would signal fresh sell-off.
German 10-yr Bund prices dropped to rising trend line support coming from June low and July low. Prices are attempting a rebound form the rising trend line support and the odds of a solid rebound are high, if we take into consideration the bullish price RSI divergence on the hourly and 4-hr chart. Even the MACD is suggesting the bearish momentum has run out of...
GBP moving higher? Data: 1. Leading post brexit data has recovered significantly from 5-10yr lows to firm growth or significant recovery (PMI, Optimism, Confidence) and imo this will be continuing theme given negs arent going to start for another 6-9m, there isnt any impetus to drive us lower again. 2. Also the macro indicators are trading well, e.g....
GBP moving higher? Data: 1. Leading post brexit data has recovered significantly from 5-10yr lows to firm growth or significant recovery (PMI, Optimism, Confidence) and imo this will be continuing theme given negs arent going to start for another 6-9m, there isnt any impetus to drive us lower again. 2. Also the macro indicators are trading well, e.g....
The 1327 retracement level has been breached today following the sustained bounce in 10 year yields. Although the market is looking oversold intraday, I expect the correction to continue to potentially as low as 1297 before becoming attractive again from the long side. I remain bullish on gold medium and long term (as I have been all year) with a year-end price...
About 5 days ago, I had pointed to the possible Bearish Cypher formation on the 10-yr treasury yield . The pattern stands completed today. Point D = 1.499% = potential reversal zone (PRZ) has been tested. As per the pattern, we should be heading down from here. For related markets this means - US stocks may be in for correction USD/JPY rally could run out of...
The hourly chart shows bullish price RSI divergence led to the recovery in the yield from the record low of 1.322%. We also have a bearish cipher set up, courtesy of the recovery from record low. Point D, which is the potential reversal zone, stands at 1.499%. This means the yield could turn lower from 1.499% or if the level is breached on the higher side on...
Just about hitting a support level on the symmetric triangle. Fundamentally, the global markets are going through a rough time this week, which could drive demand for haven assets such as 10Y treasuries, driving the price up to hit the resistance level of this triangle. I think that we will see a short-term move up to the resistance. Look for breaks on both...
Running Alpha Capital Markets observes that higher rates are not always a headwind, as the not too distant record shows that the electric utilities group can outperform and offer a margin of safety. During the last period of higher rates, from mid 2004 to mid-2006, the FOMC hiked rates 16 times, and despite these incremental actions, electric utilities actually...
Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below: The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...
The sharp rise in sovereign yields in Europe has taken a lot of people by surprise, and the sentiment in the market is more and more bearish as people are starting to believe Bill Gross's "short of a century" statement made two months ago. We should all be asking ourselves if it's reasonable to expect yields to keep rising over the long term as the ECB will...
2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA: - Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF. - Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US...
Macro: The Short term spike in yields triggered a large selloff in REITS. As mentioned in the 10 Year yield post, The yields are likely to rebound until at least end of year which could put downward pressure on REITS. Technicals: USDH is underperforming the S&P which is setting up for a possible short across the board over the next weeks. The bearish divergence...