U.S. Cases--Far From Over?Biggest one day increase since pandemic broke out in the United States. +51890 new cases reported on May 11 2020 Is this due to increased testing, or the "reopening" of the U.S. Economy? Trend is your friend. Trend is still climbing...by Ehan_EclipzUpdated 5510
When It Might EndUsing Projection, Sine Line, Gann 192 day time cycle, my educated "guess" is this virus will peak around August 2020 with approximately 3.7 million U.S. cases and start to decline until bottoming out in Feburary 2021. Squeeze Momentum Indicator by Lazy Bear showing 2nd wave of infection.by Ehan_EclipzUpdated 8813
USA COVID-19 Spike as reported...... to spike in April! Already media is openly speaking of that expectation. No surprises, will happen. Data (MACD histogram) projections align. Apparently, NY and FL are already spiking. This is likely the Omicron wave, and it can get out of hand pretty quickly as we have seen in many other countries. Hope that enough preparations have been made! by Auguraltrader1
Covid US casesParabolic growth. Omicron will probably hurt. Wear mask, get booster. <3Longby CapSnake0
COVID IN THE USA: REALITY IS A HARSH PLACETradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below). Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart. Say what you see! I'll say what I see. If the war on COVID was being won, one would expect to see at least clear plateaus. That makes sense because it means there is no massive set of new cases to increase the total. I hope folk get the point. Watch the red arrows. 1. On death total - it's accelerating. Certainly no plateau. 2. On case total - it's accelerating. No plateau. Of course this does not mean that the numbers won't plateau. The point is that the trajectories and the power of the numbers means they're not winning the war. A plateau would probably have been expected in the post-vaccination era. Some say, the plateau is coming soon. How would they know. Do they know the future better than everybody else? All I know is what I see: There are no plateaus. Do we stay with evidence or do we believe rhetoric repeated in lamestream media? Well, the choice is yours. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.by Captain_WalkerUpdated 441
Is BTC's uptrend following COVID's?First off, this is not meant as any opinion towards Covid-19 (political, medical, or otherwise) nor meant in any way to dishonor any who have lost loved ones due to Covid-19, but rather I wanted to call out an interesting correlation that looks to be occurring. Recently TradingView made the confirmed cases in the US available broken down per state or country. However, when one maps the rate of change ( ROC ) based on the absolute value, one can see the daily increase/decrease in cases over time (similar to all the charts as shown on other sites such as Google ). What is interesting is that when vaccines hit key events, the price of bitcoin dropped. However, now that the delta variant has begun to increase the case rates in the US, the price of bitcoin seems to be retracing upward along almost the exact same Fibonacci retracement levels (note how even the bounces seem to occur on both charts along the Fibonacci lines). As to the cause of this, it could be for any number of reasons, for example Fibonacci levels being a measure of growth (and hence very appropriate for disease spreads), or could be correlated to the hopes for a government stimulus in the United States, or could simply be an interesting coincidence and nothing else. It seems like something of interest to watch to see if the trend continues or breaks (e.g., could a dip in Covid-19 cases due to boosters or herd immunity leading to a dip in BTC ). Either way, stay safe out there, both with the pandemic and with your trades. And as always, this is not meant as financial advice but is solely my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or at least find it interesting as well.by crypto_trends333
SINGAPORE INDONESIA MALAYSIA US COVID ProjectionTime for an update... Singapore is not enjoying it, but it is in a surprise wave. IT should start to taper off, but the tail would be long... Indonesia was as projected, and appears to be slowing slightly. Malaysia is the surprise, as instead of tailing off, a new spike over the last three weeks emerged and the trajectory indicates higher levels over the next weeks. Of interest, the USA... as the CDC makes about turns in their advisory, and summer holidays are going on with people being still very complacent about it, it looks like a spike wave is due over the next two weeks, and projected to accelerate. On this note, I wonder IF the equity market will finally realize and freak out for a bit here... It has been 1.5 years, have we learnt nothing? If at all, the war has changed inherently, with the Delta variant. There will be more to come...by Auguraltrader0
USA COVID: Watch out!Was just speaking to a good buddy who saw an interview where someone said that in a few weeks, the Delta wave would be over. I pulled out the chart, and by any measure, it does not appear so! The only time this model failed was the Singapore KTV Club surge, which is an anomaly, and a gamechanger... much as an awakening call. Otherwise, it has been pretty darn reliable. Just hours ago... the CDC reversed its decision/recommendation on vaccinated people and mask wearing. Essentially, admitting that even vaccinated people can be infected, and spread the Delta variant. www.nytimes.com www.washingtonpost.com www.bloomberg.com Check in again in September! Meanwhile... please take care and be safe.by Auguraltrader0
Black Swan - Delta VariantIdea for COVID-19: - Delta variant now 20% of US cases says CDC, up from 3% 4 weeks ago. - Technicals suggest new wave to begin. Forecast: 54 Million+ by EOY. www.bloomberg.com New variant selection timeframe matched as forecasted previously: GLHF - DPTLongby UnknownUnicorn1043646Updated 669
Cycle in daily cases continuationThe exact bottoms looking week-over-week via 7-day momentum are perfectly spaced 107 bars apart. Continuing the cycle suggests a bottom on April 14th. Continuing it further and speculating what the possible trajectories may be, a good case of the end of the pandemic and a bad case of the continuation are shown.by Skipper860
COVID-19 US Mini Spike???Just to test a hypothesis... appears that recently, the US has lower COVID-19 cases. However, the drop is slowing down, and appears to be rising back up again. For now, it appears to be a small increase/spike incoming. Will review in a couple of weeks...by Auguraltrader112
Covid cases should be decelerating by the end of next weekThis chart analysis uses position equation terms from physics to show how covid total cases should be decelerating by the end of next week (December 4th) according to the linear trend of the acceleration chart which is approaching zero and should continue into the negative.by Skipper86Updated 1
THIS MEANS TROUBLE!You don't need to be a scientist or epidemiologist to see what's going on here. The COVID pandemic is out of control. These charts are limited because they show total infections - not rate of infections per day. The exponential appearance of total infections is because of the summation of infections. However, if a country is gaining some control over the virus then we could expect some flattening of the curve like with Australia. A flattening would mean they're not piling on loads of new infections. Many parts of Europe, America and UK are in big trouble - but we're not hearing much about the economic impact of any of that. Why? Because everybody is focused on fiscal stimulus and hopes that a vaccine will cure economies. Stock markets all over the world are looking past what rising infections mean for the future. Many countries are actually locking down but their stock markets are rocketing! Driven by hope and greed, those who look past reality are courting delusion. The gap between fantasy and reality closes suddenly at times. I don't know when this is going to happen. I don't have a crystal ball. Educationby Captain_WalkerUpdated 4
COVId-19 Scan for the US, GB, GER and CHNCOVID-19 Confirmed cases for the USA, Great Britain, Germany, and China... Clearly the Western (world) major economies are having trouble handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany appears to be the most parabolic, then Great Britain is similar although not as steep. USA is not far off in the speed of spread. Opposing to that, China has been doing well, and numbers are low, with the MACD having an opposing pattern, falling as time goes along. This is going to be the stage for 2021; and the writing is on the wall (chart) now... by Auguraltrader1
COVID19 the Jerk got worse in a SnapPart 1: FULL INTRO The goal remains the application of 'derivatives of displacement' to describe the spread of COVID-19. The points made will apply to any application over time (not just virus spread). This charts focus is on COVID19's "snap". Snap is the 4th derivative of displacement: Rate of spread (how many each day) Velocity of spread: Change in Rate over time Acceleration of spread: Change in Rate over time Jerk of spread: Change in Rate over time Snap: Change in Jerk over time Snap is explosive change best described as "Oh Sh-t!" Examples of snap include : Waterfall. Take off. Flooring it. Rocket launch. Peak violent vomiting Roller coaster with 360 loop. COVID19 spread as of Nov, 2020. (Black histogram in upper right chart) Why should I care? Acceleration, Jerk and Snap can be evaluated together when expressed in standard deviations. 95% of measurements fall between -2 STD and +2 STD away from their mean mean (assuming a normal distribution). The lower right chart presents the derivatives in terms of STD's. At the time of writing they are all above the midline (i.e. all positive). In terms of "stopping the spread" of the virus consider the difficulty in stopping any of the 'snap examples' above. A job for superman? Superman was said to be "faster than a speeding bullet". However, after leaving the barrel, a bullets velocity and acceleration are negative. Bullets slow down, while virus spread speeds up. The bullets deceleration lacks jerk or snap unless it hits a wall. Yet, on one point the bullet metaphor *is* useful: Giving a bullet or a virus a 'head start' has an exponential impact . For a virus the head start may be time for asymptomatic spread. For a bullet its a longer barrel and more time to build velocity.(see note below). Time Matters and the time is now American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacement ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ [Note on projectile velocities : A bullet, while moving through its barrel, is being pushed forward by the gas expanding behind it. This gas was created when the trigger was pulled, causing the firing pin to strike the primer, which in turn ignited the solid propellant packed inside the bullet cartridge, making it combust while situated in the chamber. Once it leaves the barrel, the force of the expanding gas ceases to propel the bullet forth. When a bullet is fired from a handgun with a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel, the bullet only has a 2-inch (51 mm) "runway" to be spun before it leaves the barrel. Likewise, it has only a 2-inch (51 mm) space in which to accelerate before it must fly without any additional force behind it. In some instances, the powder may not have even been fully burned in guns with short barrels. So, the muzzle velocity of a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel is less than that of a 4-inch (100 mm) barrel, which is less than that of a 6-inch (150 mm) barrel. Shortby gb50k227
American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacementCleaner Chart: The recent increase in acceleration (known as "jerk") of US COVID cases is "re-bending the curve". In this context the verbal descriptions of change, and its derivatives ,becomes both interesting and important Charts showing ongoing change in confirmed US COVID19 cases are themselves constantly changing. Understanding these 'charts of change' is a prerequisite for making informed public policy decisions, as well as individual decision making (to mask or not to mask?). Yet verbal explanations of change are outpacing graphical representations in mainstream media. This is the position taken in the NYT article "Bending the curve". To quote the author: As an old Chinese philosopher never said, “Words about graphs are worth a thousand pictures.” The public at large understands the concept of displacement: change over time. For example, is the number of new cases per day going up or down? However, the derivatives of displacement are not commonly understood. You may get a blank stare in response to questions like: 1) The US flattened the curve in the spring of 2020. Did that mean fewer new cases per day? 2) "A jerk is responsible for recent spikes in new cases" Is that: a) a description of change? b) a political statement? Methodology: The chart is a brief overview of the first 4 derivatives of displacement [Left panel and there application to recent (10/25/2020) data on he number of confirmedrUS COVID19 cases. Raw data was TV's ticker "COVID19:CONFIRMED_US" Each derivative was calculated on a 7-day SMA of the previous step. Both 5MA and 7MA are commonly used in summary graphs published by John Hopkins (2). Deritives are shown for Acceleration and Jerk. A BB% score shows that both Acceleration and Jerk are 2STD above their mean. It is statistically likely that ,as the Jerk becomes more prominent we may experience an upward "Snap" in US COVID cases. While its easy to visualize an acceleration or even a jerk in virus spread (both have exponential growth), it is much harder, and is left as an exercise for the reader, to visualize "snap" spread of a disease. Another conclusion is that any attempt to "re-flatten the curve" will fail in the presence of persistent jerk. (1) www.nytimes.com (2) coronavirus.jhu.eduEditors' picksShortby gb50kUpdated 414152
Update.... Sure looks like an 1-2-3-4-5 Elliot Wave to me. It is striking to me how much the new case counts of COVID in the US look like an Elliot wave. Alternate sentiments of panic and denial seem to create a similar fractal as greed and fear in trading. I hope a solution is found soon.by BlueDog6241
Comparing daily Covid cases to deaths (US)Deaths broke out in synchronization with cases during the first wave and lagged by 6 days during wave 1.5. We're now 14 days post-breakout of the 2nd wave and deaths are still flat. There is no established relationship between cases and deaths as far as I can tell. One thing that can be said is that deaths are currently way behind where they were in the previous two cases breakouts.by Skipper862
[COVID] It's Gonna Get Much Worse Before It Gets Any Better :(We're not doing enough to reduce the rate of transmission... wear masks indoors, keep groups small and socially distance, it'll help. COVID infections hit new ATH today just beating out last week, which had set a new ATH above July peak. No good answers. No good solutions. Just do your best. It will save lives.Longby ProfitHarvest226
🌀 Deal ✓179 IPO Atea Pharmaceuticals (AVIR) - money on COVID Stock market. Stocks. IPO of Atea Pharmaceuticals (AVIR) - on October 29, 2020, an IPO of a company specializing in the development of antiviral drugs will take place. The placement is underwritten by J. P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and William Blair. The deadline for submitting an order with the broker is 20-00 Moscow time on 28.10.2020, the start date of trading is 30.10.2020. 2% of the Fund will be invested in shares of this company. A detailed report on the transaction, or "opportunity card" for all partners of our Fund, will be provided in PDF format. Anyone who wants to get more information, please write in private messages. 5 recent "gold" deals that we published in advance in the network (10% per deal): At the moment, the equity of all positions +3.5% (start of the Fund 24.10.2020) 1) 23.10.2020 (1) Habib-Geiji result +35% 2) 18.10.2020 (0) Rublev-Chorich result +29% 3) 11.10.2020 (0) Djokovic-Nadal result +75% 4) 30.09.2020 (0) PAOK-Krasnodar result +60% 5) 26.09.2020 (0) Adensanya-Costa result +60% 6 last "silver" deals on the Gold Star Fund (available only to partners of the Fund, 2% deal): At the moment, the equity of all positions +43.92% (the Fund started working on 13.08.2020) 1) 26.10.2020 (178) IPO Mavenir plc (MVNR) result 0% (the transaction is not closed) 2) 26.10.2020 (177) IPO Root Inc (ROOT) result 0% (deal not closed) 3) 20.10.2020 (176)Dynamo-Juventus result +122% 4) 25.10.2020 (175) Gombos — Sachko result +150% 5) 25.10.2020 (174) Auger Shvartsman, the result is +38% 6) 25.10.2020 (173) Porto Lived Vincere the result is +0% If you have any questions about cooperation, you can write to the Foundation's founder and Manager Ivan Kuznetsov in private messages.Longby ivan_gold_star_0
COVID/CONFIRMEDI’m going long on Covid we should be at 10,000,000 by December/Early January Stoploss: 5,000,000Longby krabbiebaddies441