Gather around....I have short story to tell Once upon a time, in a town called Sweetville, there lived a child named Lily, whose love for cookies knew no bounds. From the moment she took her first bite, a magical spell was cast upon her taste buds, and she became powerless to resist the sweet temptation. Lily's days revolved around cookies. She couldn't stop...
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet denominated in USD has broken the uptrend line down almost 16% or $5 trillion which is about 5% of Global GDP. Why does that matter to you? Because there are $5 trillion more bonds available that have been invested in the bond market which takes away from other asset classes. While global debt has skyrocketed (meaning more ...
- how it works : - Imagine you can create apples, and that you are the only one in the world able to do that. - So if you create 100 apples, you will make them more rare and unique, so maybe you can sell them for 10$ each one. - So now imagine you create 10,000,000,000 apples, you will have more apples than peoples need to eat, so you will have to sell your...
Until the job market forces the Fed's hand, their balance sheet can keep on shrinking (letting Nasdaq to keep out performing it). Using ratio charts (instead of overlaid data series) works as a Rosetta stone. Helps see the underlying macro economics is play. #fed #fomc #nasdaq
The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin. This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price? I've...
This cart shows how USD liquidity leads assets such as Bitcoin and stock market.
Plotting USD Liquidity for the past 5 years versus the S&P and Bitcoin. Made twitter-famous by Raoul Pal and Arthur Hayes. As we can see in the chart, liquidity is tightly correlated with the S&P and also drives Bitcoin cycles. Liquidity looks to lead price movements in both assets classes. Question for the community: How can we best forecast moves in USD liquidity?
Formula constructed based on Arthur Hayes post, 'Teach Me Daddy'. USD Liquidity Conditions Index = The Fed’s Balance Sheet — NY Fed Total Amount of Accepted Reverse Repo Bids — US Treasury General Account Balance Held at NY Fed USD Liquidity — Number Go Up: Fed Balance Sheet — Increases RRP Balances — Decreases TGA — Decreases USD Liquidity — Number Go...
Be careful, uptrend of this symbol (FED balance sheet) isn't a Quantitative easing ...! Hight risk markets will crash as soon as possible.📉
central bank balance sheets central bank rates central bank - mandate - inflation central bank - mandate - employment
USD Liquidity Conditions Index = The Fed’s Balance Sheet — NY Fed Total Amount of Accepted Reverse Repo Bids — US Treasury General Account Balance Held at NY Fed source: blog.bitmex.com
FOMC FED Net Liquidity Central Bank Balance Sheets: United States China Japan Italy DXY EURUSD CPI PMI
Run-Off... The only thing running is Bids for MBS and USTs. After an aggressive May 25th, $51 Sell ahead of the June 15th Taper was stopped dead in its tracks. ____________________________________________ Imagine swimming in the middle of the vast Pacific Ocean. Bumping into Flotsom and Jetsom every so often. It's lonely out there... Nowhere to...
NASDAQ:QQQ As you can see on the chart, FED balance sheet should be adjusted, as you it just started to go down, but QQQ already is 20% down from the top. so obviously the bear market just started. and I expect more than 50% now. the most powerful and longest bear market of all time. *This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
Here is a chart comparing the Fed's balance sheet vs. the NASDAQ price since 2003. It seems like NASDAQ chases the balance sheet most times, but gets scared out during tightening (2018-2019), and now. The FED came to save the day in 2019, but will they now? The reaction here seems to price in what the FED balance sheet would be after tightening.
Fed cannot go too much time without a new fresh BRRR
Seems to exists a relation between those two. In the long run, gold price seems to follow the expansion movements of the FED. In 08, prior to the GFC, the size of the BS was 800 times bigger than the price of a gold ounce. In 2012, it was 1,800 times bigger than the ounce of gold. In both cases, the FED's BS was bigger than the ounce of gold by a factor that...