Usually when we have an inverted yield curve usually a recession follows. This has been the longest inversion to date. Is this time different? Usually the countdown to a incoming recession is when the inversion un-inverts which means goes back up to zero. Something to put on the back burner but keep an eye on
A lot of market participants are falling for the Fed's illusion that a soft landing has been achieved. However, the charts are still warning that a recession is coming. The chart below shows the extreme degree of inversion between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. The current inversion is the worst in over 40 years. A yield curve...
We got some levels never seen in the last 40 years. Usually, the recessions start when the Yield Curve changes direction and comes back to positive territory. This time the numbers are huge and considering the National Debt Level...we could see an Economic Depression. Interest rates reduction within September 2023 and the start of the Recession by July 2023? My...
If history repeats, the SPX may fall below the Covid low in the next 1 to 2 years.
We are still at an all-time low recession level. Everybody should be cautious but keep on investing as every crisis gives good opportunities.
This chart suggests that the coming recession will be anywhere from Q4 next year to Q4 2024 which is much later than what the 10 minus 2 year chart could be saying. There's also a possibility that the recent inversion is a false signal but unlike the 1998 fakeout, it went deeper and is much more likely a legitimate signal.
Historically, yield curve inversion had always predicated a future recession. Normally, both FRED:T10Y2Y and T10Y3M require inversions and T10Y3M is yet to invert. Historically, in the event both yield curves invert, the recession came in a delayed phase of 7-24 months from the curves invert. What this means for the market is, at least in the short- to...