We are about to see massive layoffs..!A comparison between the Unemployment rate and S&P500 performance shows a massive layoff era is ahead..! Soon people will realize the meaning of what J Powell said in the Jackson hole symposium: " There will be pain for families and businesses" Best,Longby MoshkelgoshaUpdated 8839
DEAD CAT BOUNCE in #Stocks & Risk on assets.We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate. Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news. This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically spikes going from very low to very high levels over a short period of months at which point, welcome to HYPERstagflation that make the 1970s look tame. The upshot is #Bitcoin and stocks can fall a lot lower than current levels. Using the rationale that Bitcoin has already fallen 75% so, "How much further can it fall?" can lead to huge sums lost. In 2014 and 2018, it fell -87.5% and -84%, respectively. If Bitcoin were to fall again to such levels, it would represent another -50% drop from -75% if it fell to -87.5% off peak, not just -12.5%. #math Shortby BallaJi331
Unemployment Rate & SP500From Investopedia: Low unemployment is usually regarded as a positive sign for the economy. A very low rate of unemployment, however, can have negative consequences, such as inflation and reduced productivity. When the labor market reaches a point where each additional job added does not create enough productivity to cover its cost, then an output gap, or slack, happens. The level at which unemployment equals positive output is highly debated. However, economists suggest that as the U.S. unemployment rate gets below 5%, the economy is very close to or at full capacity. So at 3.5%, one could argue the level of unemployment is too low, and the U.S. economy is becoming inefficient.by tianmu94112
Consumers VS FEDHad consumers outperformed FED? If yes, then we are running into recession.by svystunoVlad1
UnemploymentHmmm... Beyond Depression Era unemployment while the Ministry of Truth suggests it is currently 3.4%. _________________________________________________________ McDonald's has plans to fully Automate their Locations in the next 3 Years. Labor shortage? No, untrue. Automation. __________________________________________________________ Blame Western Crony Capitalism. No, blame Kleptocracy. by HK_L611111
Civilian Unemployment Rate AnalysisStandard analysis measuring unemployment fluctuations. Attention should be drawn to areas between 2.51 to 5.10 where strong support has been shown to contribute to unemployment increases since 1953.by ArticaAnalytica1
When Does The FED Raise Rates Historically?Historically FED has raised rates when unemployment has been between 6.5 to 5%. Will it be different this time?by RealMacro222
Why the unemployment number are Bullish...unemployment numbers were released earlier today they missed substantially from estimates of 978,000 jobs came in at 266,000 the big number here which surprised me is that manufacturing jobs dropped by 18,000 so that traction that we’ve seen over the past several months is one away completely. Let me address why I think the markets are doing better today. I believe there was a great fear that we are overheating in the economy and this shows that this is not happening one of the other things I want to mention here which is important is that my expectations that I discussed on the Livestream on YouTube on Wednesday were that we would have at least one or two more months of good employment numbers and then it would flatten off and the Fed would struggle to get things to move forward. So this is going to put a lot of pressure on states and federal government to get the country open and moving forward. This sets the tone for the possibility of more stimulus in a classic scenario of bad news is good news. Looking at the long-term employment chart this is important also to look at as the average between the high and low going back to 1949 is 6% so we are at 6.1 everybody was expecting this to drop down to 5.8 today so we are actually in the mean of were employment normally exist over time. So we tend to get a few points below 6% in a few points above and those periods of time are considered to be booms or recessionary periods depending on how much above or below these lines we are at. My expectations are now that we did get this bad report is the report for May when it comes out next month this is going to be important to keep a close watch on as if it does not down tech below 5.8 then this is likely to become a big issue with the Fed trying to stimulate the economy. I think will begin to see and hear more rhetoric from the treasury/Janet Yellen over the next several weeks if they are seeing numbers in the background that we can’t see that are concerning them. In summary, this is why I believe the markets are doing better today and will continue to do better as folks will be expecting to see some noise starting around possible new stimulus and other things that are likely to help push the new infrastructure bill through.by KendallReport1127
Civilian Unemployment Rate - V1Continuing on my exploration for signs of economic trouble ahead (or not?) I thought I'd take a look at the Unemployment rate figures, assuming they'd follow patterns like everything else. Well, they sure do seem to.... I've forgone my normally Fibonacci delving in the timing intervals and just used some basic extrapolation, as it's made all the harder by Trading View not correctly accounting the date across the bottom past the current date, but the timings make logical sense in regards to longer economic cycles, with more and more violent ups and downs. Anyway, enjoy, comments / thoughts always welcome.by TheDarkEconomist2
UNRATE - Dangerous low levelsLow levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point only means to fire people and turn into a downward trend again. Additionally the negative rates from the European Central Bank have sparked a lot of debate and there is no more further room for quantative easing if a economic collapse occurs. A recipe for distaster if you ask me, we will see it come around and most of the time act too late. There is no escape from it.by TheTrexUpdated 121223
Unemployment Rate Overlayed Federal Funds RateOne must admit it is remarkable where the unemployment level was pre-covid. There would have been a considerable melt up within the market at peak employment like that. It is a trying state of affairs as the unemployment rate is viciously targeting various sectors relentlessly.by ZenMode1110
📉Record unemployment in the US -an opportunity to earn IPO ACCD🔎 Hello everyone! We have an interesting trading idea for you - how you can earn 50% or more on the exchange by participating in the initial placement of Accolade shares (ACCD). Accolade is a startup that has developed a healthcare platform for employers. The company's platform helps its users better navigate the healthcare system, as well as reduce costs for medical purposes. As you know, due to COVID-19, many companies now suffer huge costs and strive to optimize their performance as best as possible. By the way, unemployment in the US is now at a record level, which has not been recorded since the great depression (1929-1939) - see the chart. ACC Accolade uses a range of technologies - from machine learning to mobile apps-to make it easier for employees to access medical care. Employers are charged a subscription fee depending on the number of employees. The volume of investments attracted by the company, according to crunchabase, amounts to $237.3 million. In addition, Accolade has bought the company and konciergeMD MD Insider. You can see the picture of the business structure of this company below. 🤝 If you need statistics on the company's financial performance, you can write to me and I will send you a detailed report. If you do not know how to perform the operation and start from 25,000 rubles, you can also write to me, I will help you, but the deadline is 20-00 today in Moscow. Opportunities appear quickly and disappear just as quickly. I expect the return on this IPO to be around + 50% or higher, but I remind you that there is a risk of losing all or part of your capital, so invest no more than what you are prepared to lose. 📈 Graphs will be in the comments, so that the article is not blocked Longby ivan_gold_star_115
Highest Unemployment Rate ever!!!!!Here you will clearly see the highest Unemployement rate ever recorded in the US. This chart only goes back so far, but if you could go back further you would see that it is definetly the highest rate ever. Unbelievable. by jasonroy40Updated 8
US unemployment rate from a TA perspective RSI at its historic low (in the available data). It looks like the rate hit (or almost hit) the support line. Can we say there will be an increasing unemployment rate, based on low RSI and the support line? Educationby leopisbigUpdated 4
Covid Depression 2020 reached point of no return? URATE at 14%.The Awesome Oscillator (graph below) went from negative to positive this month (MAY 2020). The last two times this happened in 2001 and 2008, recessions hit the US and the world economies were shacked. Is this the starting point of the downward acceleration spiral?by gotomars6
Shit has started to hit the fan - 2020 Covid Great DepressionUnemployment rate in the US has increased at a very accelerated rate.by gotomars4
US Unemployment Rate is starting to IncreaseIn 2001, 2008 and now in 2020, the Unemployment rates started to increase considerably before economical crisis. I've put this quick chart together to keep an eye on this.by gotomars2
Unemployment and Market Value Inverse CorrelationGrowth drives employment. Contraction drives unemployment. by gotomars6
Unemployment as an indicator for Recession or DepressionsI've put together this simple chart to try to visualize how the unemployment rate may be an indicator of what's to come. When credit flows and people and companies can get debt to drive growth, you get more spend, more income, more highers, more employment, more jobs. However, as this starts to slow, it starts to drop, leading to potentially the economy slowing down. Companies stop hiring, and eventually firing. It might be interesting to get LinkedIn data here, as they probably have this dynamic reflected in Open Positions and People looking for jobs. What are your thoughts on the graph? Any other way you'd calculate the rate of change of the graphs (inflection points on employment/unemployment)?by gotomars4