Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and the relationship among asset classes to anticipate the business cycle. That series and parts 1 and 2 of this series are linked below.
Parts one and two of the series described the general methodology, presented the matrix with the raw...
In installments 1 - 3 we discussed building a market momentum matrix to help anticipate the business cycle. In this installment we introduce the OECD Composite Leading Indicator and plot the information derived from the momentum matrix onto a stylized business cycle. In the final installment we will make observations and share thoughts around the current cycle. ...
Since we last discussed the odds of a recession here, the prospect of a recession has become consensus. The issue that remains under scrutiny is the duration and intensity of the recession. The slide in stock markets has destroyed nearly US$35trn of global wealth in H1 2022. In terms of timing, the European economy is headed for a recession by year-end, while the...
The composite leading indicator is produced by the OECD.
It is an index of components that pertain to each country and is considered a leading indicator of near-future economic performance.
The components for the CLI are:
Component Series (Unit) Source
Work started for dwellings sa (number)
Net new orders - durable goods sa (USD)
Share prices: NYSE...
