Baero-Trading

Baero-Trading

What a WILD week we had! Last week was insanely noisy between the FOMC on Wed, NASDAQ:AAPL earnings on Thursday, and NFP on Friday. This coming week of May 5th offers very little in the way of news catalysts, so it will be great for us TA based traders. So far, all of our weekly objectives have been playing out - and nothing has really changed from my perch...

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Last week we got the YM1! backtest that I wanted on the weekly. We rejected the weekly IRL and now I am looking to take out LOY on the Dow. Dropping to the h4 chart, we can clearly see the market is now primed to drop. I am looking for a sweep of highs to begin the weekly sell program. For those watching - we also got the 50% retrace of SPX on the...

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Nobody will ring a bell at the top. What a great selloff we had last week! I was expecting a pop higher for the sell but they just wanted to pull the rug on bulls early in the week it seems. Pretty much everything got monkey hammered. Indexes and Oil slid while gold held in (for now). The great news is we now have a directional market to trade again - these are...

Baero-Trading

What a week we just had! Friday we saw aggressive broad selling all the way into the close. The NDX is once again just flopping around in this multi-week range - while The Dow is meaningfully breaking down. For indexes - I will be focusing on the Dow this week. The DJI has been super clean lately and is the only index really making the sizeable moves as...

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The Greatest Depression has Begun. This post will look at the Nasdaq through the lens of ICT concepts. So what happened this week of 10/22/23. NDX broke the equal lows from May/June @ 14220 - and balanced a weekly Fair Value Gap by attacking the midpoint/CE of this weekly FVG. More importantly - by taking out the June lows, we now have a WEEKLY Market...

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Everyone and their dog is looking for the Fed Pivot and rate cuts. I think if they do this and return to QE - they will lose the bond market. Then it won't matter for anyone on anything. This is the massive tail that I think nobody is looking for, but check the WEEKLY chart of the 10yr note. Head & Shoulders (or their inverse) are typically formed at the end...

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Lots of news/noise this week! Between the mini banking crisis and banks bailing eaother out, the 2yr and oil beat down - where do we go from here? To start, they basically saved the weekly candle on the SPX. We need to close the week above the 200dma and outside of the bear market down -trendline @ 3930. We have open gaps above us but my thesis is basically...

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For Starters - Go Watch this guy as he is 100% spot on. twitter.com Lets start with a Chart of the VIX From October 12th (the bottom of the last market rally). Using the 1hr $VIX Chart, you can see we have 5 open gaps. We filled the last gap TODAY: And in fact - we now have a gap overhead! And the VIX bottomed directly into its 100month SMA. If you...

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Pretty interesting chart here. The 10year yields have now retraced .618 of the move from the 2018 highs to the Covid 2020 lows. FOMC is in 2 days - if Powell offers no surprises, I wouldn't be shocked to call this the top in the 10 year for now. IF we start to get a reversal in rates - get long bonds such as $TLT or $ZROZ - and tech might even rally. Just...

Baero-Trading Updated 

Long term trends on overall market are looking weak. SPX has a megaphone on the weekly/Monthly chart - typical signals of a chart. We look around the market right now and speculative excess and ferver are everywhere - from BTC to DOGECoin to meme stocks - Next crash on SPX should run ~50% or so, and take 2-4 months. Maybe we get a 3rd touch on megaphone by Sept 1st 2021?

Baero-Trading

Sell NatGas up here - 13 year trendline tag on daily. Short via futures or long $KOLD Natural Gas has a strong seasonality - and May is only 2 weeks away. Look how insanely clean the tag was on the 1hr chart.

Baero-Trading Updated 

Bonds appear to be breaking out alongside DXY. Record amounts of shorts have been piled onto Bonds to the order of 4 sigma - everyone and their dog is short bonds - so you know what that means! Rates aren't rising, the Bond market sees what is coming - and it is deflationary. Use a leveraged Bond ETF such as TMF to capture the big move in bonds!

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NG1! might be doing one of its epic fake outs - right here at a very key level. Fundamentals - there is a giant Category 4 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is going to slam into Louisiana and the NG/Oil rigs. I bet this drives a lot of traders into the energy space. Technicals - Fisher traders will note NG made a very late day A up on Friday. NG also...

Baero-Trading Updated 

Oil looks to be breaking out of a 2 month long descending wedge. The 100d Linear Regression Channel had us bounce off the top in August, and the bottom in Sept. We have Stacked Inverse Head & Shoulders - massive upside possible. Today things that oil has accomplished TODAY (9/2/2021): 1) Cleared 9d/100d confluence 2) Cleared the 20w SMA 3) new weekly...

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Looking for short the indexes this week. Ain't no rally like a bear market rally! /ES had a nice squeeze, recaptured the 50w SMA - but it got capped at the 200dma. We had a 50% retracement, but we have lots of overhead resistance such as the 200dma and daily Ichimoku Clouds. I'm looking for shorts to reset and looking for a flush to ~4000 or so - then buy...

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Oil has been on an absolute tear since early December. The current price trend has formed a rising wedge and now we are into the resistance trendline from the highs last fall. I tend to be a contrarian and fade the mob - every talking head and news outlet is talking about how we have to go long commodities, and the "buy commodities" narrative is all on the...

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Monthly chart doesn't look that great IMO, ripe for at least aa 20% correction. ------Technicals------------ Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008. Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1! ------Macro----------- Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a...

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NQ1! broke the 50w SMA but we need to backtest and confirm the break IMO. That said, there are lots of headwinds this coming week with the Fed tightening, overall weakening Economy, margin compression etc NQ1! is now trading -4 standard deviations from its 50dma I strongly believe that we can use this bounce for longs - as distribution will want to sell...