David_Warren_Ellison

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

Following our successful S&P 500 Index trade from last February, it is time to consider the next major trade of opportunity: TLT. This trade consists of buying January 2025 TLT LEAPS (long-term call options) currently trading for $8.50. That means TLT has to hit $108.50 before January 2025 for you to break even. The Fed forecasts that the Fed Funds rate will be...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The S&P 500 failed to hold its downward trend in December and January (see my previous setup linked below). We closed our December short trade at a moderate profit and waited for further information. A breakout has occurred, and the S&P 500 looks to be backtesting the neck line of a giant inverse head and shoulder originating in June 2022. A retest of 3975...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

As it has 3 other times this year, the S&P 500 has failed near the top of a descending regression channel dating back to the end of 2021. 4050 looks like the top of the current cycle, as 4340 marked the end of the summer bear market rally. Mercury Retrogrades have been a useful marker of bearish turning points so far this year amidst the continued downtrend....

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The S&P 500 has made 3 consecutive lower highs on the hourly chart as we close the day around 3870. Throughout the day, the S&P 500 tested the orderflow pivot point around 3870 and failed to sustain volume above. With the lower high, we most likely will move much lower over the next few days. As we are still within a secular downtrend on the daily chart (as...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The S&P 500 has rallied impressively to levels similar to those of last summer. Meanwhile, while On Balance Volume tracked price for most of 2020-2021 OBV has continually fallen for 2022. 1. The volume is not supporting the rally, and so this rally is doomed to fail. 2. We entered through the top of a linear regression channel calculated since the beginning of...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

This is a scenario that *may* play out in Bitcoin. Since December 2021, Bitcoin has been in a tight linear regression channel - and we are nearing what has been a rally point historically in this move. Right now till the beginning of August is also seasonally bullish in the Bitcoin markets, so many factors suggest a short term rally beginning in the next week or...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The USD/JPY pair's 14 period regression line has crossed the 30 period in a pro-trend (90 period regression line) direction, setting up a low risk long opportunity on today's backtest. As usual, this trade is void upon a reversal of the trend, so we put our stop loss at 109.860.

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

RTY has successfully executed a linear regression crossover on the daily period (where the 14 period linear regression line crosses the 30 and confirms by also crossing the center ribbon 0.2, 14 STDV BB). RTY has also backtested the crossover without breaking through it (yet). We have an excellent entry here as well as a clear place to exit the trade if the...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The USD/NOK pair recently finished the upward move it began in mid May, which we previously traded successfully. The pair has now executed a bearish crossover and looks to retest lower levels such as 8.45 or even resume the prior secular downtrend. August is historically a bullish month for petroleum prices, which directly influence the NOK, so we should have a...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

TLRY has broken its trend on negative CMF volume. Today's 22% gain ran into resistance (center bollinger band) and seems likely to pull back to the central ribbon support/breakout area in the next few days. Selling vertical spreads on WSB pumps often turns out well. You can get the 15.5/15 for even money.

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The Nasdaq Index Futures have executed a bullish crossover of the 14-hour regression line over the 30 hour regression line amid a strong uptrend (slope of the 90-hour regression line). The recent pullback thus looks like a bullish basing pattern targeting 15175 or above (top of the regression line) on the high side and the contracting 2 STDV BB on the low side.

David_Warren_Ellison

This is not a trade. This is just a fun scenario that explores two particular variables: VIX uptrend since July 14 and the relentless ramp up in treasury bond prices, much as happened prior to the 2018 and 2020 corrections. This suggests a substantial selloff (more substantial than the one last week) MAY be in the works. As always, watch for trends and wait for...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The 10 period linear regression line has crossed the 30 period regression line in the direction of the midterm slope (90-day regression line) setting up a possible move to the upper band (now $67). Long with confidence and cut losses upon a reversal of the trend. Strictly speaking, I sold bull put spreads. Same thing as a long. What this means is that you sell...

David_Warren_Ellison

SOFI has performed a solid crossover of the 14 period Linear Regression Line over the 30 period regression line on CMF trending towards positive. The slope of the 30-period linear regression line has also turned slightly positive, confirming another aspect of my system. After today's 9% gain, it's likely that Redditors will be pouring into this one again, which...

David_Warren_Ellison

CLOV is on the verge of a bullish crossover of the 14 period regression line over the 30 period regression line. In my backtests, I've moved to using the 14 period rather than the 10 period line, as there is less noise and very similar entries, typically. Backtest results on /ES attached: imgur.com The crossover should occur at open tomorrow - absent a meltdown -...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

After a drama-filled day filled with sensational media coverage of the Delta Variant - which has been known about for many months and mainly sickens anti-vaxxers - the 10-period regression line has crossed both the 30 period regression line and the middle 14-period 0.2 STDV Bollinger Band, setting up a solid long opportunity to the upper 2 STDV Band (around 4343)....

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

GME has demonstrated a weak crossover of the 10 period linear regression line over the 30 period linear regression line. This pattern is much stronger when the angler at the crossover is closer to 45 degrees - a near parallel crossover usually does not indicate a trend change. The current crossover qualifies as moderately weak according to my backtests. However,...

David_Warren_Ellison Updated 

The 10-period linear regression line has crossed the 0.2,14-period Bollinger Band which is my preferred trade signal - together with the 5-period trailing Chaikin Money Flow Slope > 0.5. Go long from 4310. Target 4370. Market Replay finds this type of crossover to be profitable 66% of the time since April 1, 2021 - despite rigid, rules-based order management....