EvanMedeiros

EvanMedeiros

We're showing a weekly chart in today's update. Back on December 27th I published a trade update regarding Bitcoin just as it was entering its sideways consolidation, the same one we're looking at in today's chart. I certainly didn't expect the range to develop for so long, but here we are 10 weeks later looking at more-or-less the same key levels: 45K on the...

EvanMedeiros

Back on October 23 we posted a long trade idea for Bitcoin titled: Bitcoin attempting to break over a significant long-term level where we outlined the bull case for a breakout over 32K to bring more momentum and higher targets for the King of cryptocurrencies. Here we are 2 months later with prices up 9 out of the last 10 weeks and Bitcoin has entered into a...

EvanMedeiros

After an excruciating 82%+ drawdown from all-time highs made 2 years ago, PayPal is finally showing some signs of bottoming action following the company's recent earnings report. The new CEO Alex Chriss has got all of the right talking points and focused on the right areas of the business. The true growth areas of the company are still in question, but from a...

EvanMedeiros

They say price has memory and when it comes to Bitcoin there's few levels more significant then this 30,000 to 32,000 zone. There has been a lot of volume that has traded hands in this area going back to the start of 2021 and that's why it's an important inflection level to watch as buyers make another attempt to break above it. If we can get consecutive...

EvanMedeiros

The Dow Jones has been out on vacation for the first half of this year, not really participating in the melt-up, and instead, consolidating and working off that sharp rally from Q4 2022. After all, it was one of the first indexes to bottom from the depths of the bear and start leading things higher. But now after all of this sideways consolidation, it's...

EvanMedeiros

Natural gas has been in a strong downtrend for the past year but finally sellers look exhausted and prices have stabilized. New lows failed to stick in the beginning of May which has led to a reversal higher. Sets up for a decent risk-reward trade to the upside, but stops and time-frame is important.

EvanMedeiros

The TLT has been mostly chopping sideways for the last 4 months, and while it is still directionless, it has been able to stay above it's cycle lows and not roll over to retest them. This consolidation is looking more and more healthy and if we can finally get some closes above 109, this could finally initiate a second leg higher to those Q2 2022 levels. Started...

EvanMedeiros

The QQQ is the chart of the week heading into a very busy earnings week where many of the largest components will report numbers. The spring is coiled and wound up and it's ripe for a breakout in either direction. One big continuation pattern in the direction of the YTD rally, or is this the top before the next leg down? Place your bets!

EvanMedeiros

After a 40% run to start off the new year, Ethereum continues to consolidate in an orderly low volume fashion near its highs. The big question will be, can this ignore major macro forces if the US Dollar, Yields, and tradfi volatility start to spike? That's unclear, so there certainly remain risks, but as it stands in isolation, this consolidation looks great...

EvanMedeiros

The Dollar has been in a steady decline since topping out in October, however, the looks of that decline could be finally turning. Bulls are trying to show some signs of life down here to kick off the new year. Currently holding a long position for a trade looking for higher.

EvanMedeiros

Keep an eye on the semis here as they try and reclaim the lows of this 5 week sideways range. They didn't break down as hard as the major indices and the open gap from November is still very much in tact. Overall, we're seeing some relative strength out of this higher beta group.

EvanMedeiros

Time for the plunge protection team to magically arrive and frustrate the majority? Thinking aloud as S&P500 trades entirely under daily Bollinger — how many traders would be offsides if a higher low gets put in around this area and we see a rip back over 3900 support?

EvanMedeiros

Bitcoin has been consolidating in a rather neat, orderly, and tight sideways range for 11 days. It's about 11% off it's cycle lows digesting a landslide of negative headlines. This feels like it's ready to breakout sooner rather than later if I had to pick a side, it feels like the breakout direction favors the bulls — but as the saying goes — no trigger, no...

EvanMedeiros

It's been 380 days of nothing but blue skies and uptrends for the US Dollar. However, starting in September the character of this uptrend started to shift shapes with large range down days and a series of lower highs. Now here we find ourselves 9% from highs and breaking below the 200SMA for the first time in over a year. What's your bet — the best days for...

EvanMedeiros

Treasuries accelerating their decline today free falling from already historic oversold conditions on multiple time-frames. Feels pretty broken to me, but that doesn't mean we can't break further. On watch for a true dislocation/break down/panic on further weakness.

EvanMedeiros

The overall US equity market is still having a hard time stabilizing and catching its footing, however, if we examine the major US indices closer we do notice more and more relative strength coming out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This past week it never took out its September lows, the MACD momentum oscillator continues to climb aggressively, and on...

EvanMedeiros

We spoke a lot about this chart in last week's SMW video and our preferred scenario for today would have been a market puke and a VIX spike, but as we often say, the market doesn't care what we want. We talked about the June lows as a key line in the sand going forward and the market is trying to make us believe that it wants to be above it. The action today was...

EvanMedeiros

A fresh breakdown in Apple from it's multi-week range isn't going to help the Nasdaq $QQQ stay away from its June lows, but it's a great immediate test for the market. If buyers, do in fact, bid into Apple and drive us higher into the close, absorbing the bad news, that could spark a bounce broadly, suggesting bad news is priced in, but it's on the buyers to...