GrizzlyBearBee

GrizzlyBearBee

Since the FED started raising rates last year, there has been a lot of recession doom porn on twitter, but stock prices may or may not have priced in all of that sentiment. It's important to note that much of the stock indices have been driven by the large stocks that make up most of the indices' holdings. For example the S&P500 - Russell 2000 ratio shows that...

GrizzlyBearBee

Looks like the bet on margins for natural gas related activities are on the blink as gas futures have reset to below pre-pandemic levels. Having one of my best trades of the past two years (without options) in the books, I'm taking profit and going on the options train. Looking for a strategy that places the max loss above 38. and break even at around 27. I...

GrizzlyBearBee Updated 

The Hang Seng broke below 19k. Copper is heading lower. Iron Ore futures in Shanghai and Singapore have dropped. This is not good for China. Short it

GrizzlyBearBee

The DAX30 has once again crossed the 100 day EMA for the third time this year. After the previous two crosses, the index went ahead to lose an average of 15%. The index has already reached a trough of 27.55% this year with each drop weakening and bear exhaustion showing up as evident from MACD divergence. The index has priced in a lot of bad news including the...

GrizzlyBearBee

It's hard to see the Eurozone fall into a recession. Currently, New Zealand seems like it will be able to avoid the same recessionary risks as a result of a global economic slowdown. The pair has broken below a strong level of support turned resistance. The pair has bounced above this level since 2017. It's easy to see the pair move lower HEADWINDS TO THIS PLAY...

GrizzlyBearBee

The pair is sitting below the 50 day SMA after clearing a trendline. I would like to see more action within this zone supporting a long trade considering that the zone also has a resistance level which the price broke to the downside in June. Failure to break above this level will invalidate this idea. Therefore, the 0.86xxx and 0.83xx will come into...

GrizzlyBearBee

The pair has one more resistance level - the 50 day MA - to clear opening up the 0.83xx last touched in June. Beyond that, the 0.84xx and 0.876xx comes into play Supporting this view is the wedge pattern that has been forming over the past few months and divergence of the MACD, MACD histogram and RSI. The OBV has shown signs of convergence to support flows into...

GrizzlyBearBee

Here are the key levels for you to watch: Support 1: 0.9955 - 1.002 area Cluster Resistance 1 : 1.04245 - 1.03515 supply area; Falling trendline Cluster Resistance 2 : 1.05633 level Dec '86 to Dec '89; June '97 to Dec '99; May '15 to May '17; If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!

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The Swiss Franc has seen some crazy moves since April. In the last quarter, we saw the CHF weaken on the onset of the Russian invasion. Then the SNB raised rates by whooping 50 bps for the first time in years. This led the Swiss government bond yields to spike with USDCHF weakened in days. Since then, speculators have pulled back rate hike bets in the face of...

GrizzlyBearBee

The last time this pair dropped below parity, investors chose the CHF over the Euro. However, the SNB was worried about the deflationary aspects of such a move and acted to reverse the move. This time, the fundamentals are more or less the same or different depending on how you interpret it. The Euro zone investors are worried about the block tipping into a...

GrizzlyBearBee

The pair has been pivoting to reverse May - June gains. The pair has been printing lower highs forming a descending triangle. A confirmation of the break on the daily timeframe will warrant a short-sale. Fundamentally, the AUD is struggling in the face of a global economic slowdown. The currency, a bellwether for global risk sentiment, weakened after the RBA...

GrizzlyBearBee

The Euro hit the lowest level since 2002 this morning on reports that a key Russian gas pipeline had stopped sending gas to Europe. This has sparked recessionary fears across European markets. Further downside could be in the works despite being oversold. The ECBs anti-fragmentation tool may keep the ECB monetary policy stance for longer

GrizzlyBearBee

The Chinese stock market is performing better than counterparts around the world. However, the risks surrounding the Zero-COVID policy and a potential global recession weigh on the advancement towards my targets. Trade with caution ⚠

GrizzlyBearBee Updated 

Henry Hub Natural Gas futures showing slowing momentum across the futures curve up to Jan 2024 ($NGF2024). Recent geopolitical risks i.e. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, have pushed the prices of both spot and futures of commodities higher. Natural Gas futures across the curve are tracking each other with a tighter spread till Jun 2023 implying that the market...

GrizzlyBearBee

The market is currently pricing 7 rate hikes ending in the Q2-Q4 2023 range. To quote Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA: "Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will...

GrizzlyBearBee

The Yen is no longer as a safe haven with the BoJ indicating that they are not bothered with a weak Yen. I expect further weakness, anticipating that the ZARJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY being great plays for this weakness The 0.618 Fibonacci extension lies ahead with the price target for 2022 being at the 100% level at 9.519.

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Oil is back at a very strong trendline dating back to Q4 2021. Brent Oil has seen flows in and out by speculators as they assess the damages caused by the russian invasion. This weekend, social media was filled with horrific videos and photos of the damages and a trail of murder of unarmed civilians in Bucha, Ukraine by russian troops and this could push...

GrizzlyBearBee

Yesterdays' release of the US' FOMC meeting minutes came as expected with a few curve balls. I noted that a few FED members favor balance sheet runoffs as in lieu of raising rates However a faster taper and three interest rate hikes are still expected in 2022 and this adds more support to stronger DXY. However, the US Dollar is expected to remain under pressure...