


JetSpark
we do see a smaller downtrend and the question is "will it break the upchannell?" the probability is increasing due to a smaller double bottom formed as shown in the chart with a correction in progress, this mean it's ranging and more traders will get in, so the next conformation of a new downtrend will be the break of present upchannell
we are in range of previous dump and took long time to reach it this is a basic ABC flat wave which the last C wave can reach previous high (before the dump) and can even extend further but i will target previous high as target the rest can be a bonus.
this downtrend is an impulse and i count a allready 5 waves so probably we are on a corrective wave up or a big sideways, anyway i will buy the dips until it reaches tp's at fibonacci levels i do not know how many will be hit
i believe it's a corrective double three, by drawing trend lines i see a channel that fits a double corrective waves (wxy) witch can be approximately the same size as previous fall, the invalidation will be price to get higher than last high.
i count an impulsive 5th extension wave within bigger 3rd wave they can extend maximum 261.8% to 1950 but by that will be outside the main descending trendline i suppose will be a small retrace (wave4) at trend to get higher with wave 5 as shown in green The second probability is that it will not extend that far and falling forming wave 4 to extend 5th wave at...
for Elliott wave traders probably everybody see that the previous down trend was a correction of wave 2 and now on the way to wave 3 which will have to pass through 2075 but we have already a big bullish not-stop rally which will stop at some point loosing momentum and that's why i think it will retrace to take some breath making a Higher low on daily timeframe,...
following last year prediction, xauusd is really near 2500 as predicted by adding wave 3 now the size match trend lines, i think this will do a short-term sharp retrace for wave 4 followed by short term wave 5 probably ending diagonal, than will start a bigger wave 4 wich will be more complex on the way to fish long term wave 5, than... "The" long term retrace
The question is the same "where the price is heading?" well... first of all you have to look in many dimentions and what i am exposing here is: what did it do the last 2 times price reached 380$ far away from 200 ema on daily chart is a corrective wave! as one of the most "must be aware" theory is... "too far - too fast, lead to correction" I am a long term trader...
As always we must look for channels in which price is moving on a bigger timeframe, this one is in 4h candles giving a good medium term channel which it has respected at least 2 times before, so my idea is to wait for a breakout and retest or a reasonable rejection at this point positioning trades following price as we allways say.... don't go against the trend!
the pump happened in the last few days did wake something in me as i allways try to be aware of the "Dumps" before they can happen and the last pump was "too fast too far" must lead to something bigger and we are in a long long uptrend there must be something beneath it, when i recalculate trend lines matching waves i see we are in an extencion and almost at the...
i do not see any bearish shenario and i will continue to be bullish,but we are surely on an accumulation phase with probably lows at gap 3204 or liquidity at 3181, the point of interest is the closure of a huge gap at 3325
Tariff war is not over, gold should maintain a retrace no less than 3253$ for more bullish move challenging a new all time hight, i have added a new channell wich may gradually follow, last friday it found resistance at bearish trend line, should retrace to accumulate more buys.
we have a break of first support at 3252 signaling an impulsive downtrend followed by news of US court blocking Trump's tariffs, says president exceeded his authority and this is a main bearish news for gold, the projection is widening based on dashed trendline and lower hights with lower lows, if price holds lower than 3252$ we have to lookout for next liquidity...
"if" this does not drop under 3361 and continue an upside move to 3380 than my plan is working, as price broke from bearish main channel signaling a new kind of move is happening, i believe a retrace will happen first so i will sell a little and gradually buy between 3330-3290 where the most volume is.
price breakout main upward channel and looking like forming a triangle at the edge of it, so in the case it breaks out on downside we can assume it's going for volume targets at visually obvious ranges in yellow boxes and becouse they are still far we will have to look at the reaction at those levels step by step, cheers trade safe trade smart.
this downtrend is counted by at least 3 waves with retracement in progress, tp1 taken tp2 in progress and a breakout of the channel could mean going for tp3 but if tp3 is not going to happen than will be a sign to be a bigger impulse going more deeper
we have an upward channel that has not retraced but did a triangle instead, for big movements always need retrace to grab liquidity but it did not, so probably buyers will cash at some point around 2120-1250 letting bears do the retrace needed to go further.
we are in an uptrend channel and had a big impulsive push from Bank crisis and those few days made the big move but the panic buy has decelerated and the structure of the wave is complete so from now on will be a corrective wave to the bottom side of the uptrend