LUC_Capital

LUC_Capital

Hello everyone. The following schematic I produced mid 2022 is showing that our current 4550 levels will act as a resistance to the bullish price action we have been getting from positive macro data. RSI on daily is at 70 as well as a bearish divergence being present. It is VERY likely we will see price move back to the 50D MA (4336). I'm flipping bullish from...

LUC_Capital Updated 

Hello everyone, The risk associated with trading short on the dollar has been highly increased. While the equity market and major indexes rallied as predicted by my other schematic to highest points in 7 months and talks of a new ATH in the market start, the dollar has fully completed its 50% retracement, a fake breakout to the downside was seen before a bullish...

LUC_Capital Updated 

Hello everyone, I wanted to take a look at the longer-term perspective on the market and what the possibility of a Fed Pivot could look like. Wednesday we heard from the Fed chair at the Brookings Institution event about the current strategy plan and hints on easing inflation back down to a satisfactory 2% YoY, from the current 7.7%. A number of data prints we...

LUC_Capital Updated 

Hello everyone, The market has had a lot of choppy sessions in October, earnings being unusually weak but the possibility of a lighter Fed due to in-line PCE numbers, as well as hitting a 50% retracement, sparked a relief rally in risk on assets. It is apparent BTC took relief too as it broke the $20,000 psychological level. Let's keep it simple. Using previous...

LUC_Capital Updated 

Hello everyone, Crypto markets have recovered large portions of losses made since early Nov. BTC is trading above the 200D SMA, along with the crypto market cap, indicating a bullish sentiment. I don't think it's time to FOMO yet though. Despite BTC making somewhat of a higher high on longer TF, the total crypto market has yet to follow, indicating weakness. A...

LUC_Capital Updated 

HK50 has retraced almost 20% after advice from Gov. on reopenings and easing of China's strict COVID policies to hit the 200-day MA, sloping down in a parallel channel since. Current market sentiment has declined on re-escalation of COVID related deaths and infections, however the market has yet to correct inline with this, so any continued deterioration will...

LUC_Capital Updated 

It seems NG has started a new impulse wave as it finished C move down in late October. The momentum in price sees a higher low, and a potential for a bullish continuation should see a test of $7.1 resistance level. Major resistance is seen at $9.7. I see energy as the ONLY short-medium term gainer. NASDAQ has been underperforming greatly in the index range, and...

LUC_Capital Updated 

Price has formed a rising wedge formation seen on lower time frames, confirmed by decreasing volume as it tests Aug 1.20x support as resistance. This also marked a 50% retracement on higher TF (clear on Daily), showing high demand for selling and a slowing bullish momentum, also confirmed by ST as it shows a peak at 1.2025. Key levels to watch are: 1.119x (50%...

LUC_Capital

Hello everyone, After todays FOMC meeting which saw an increase to the Fed Funds rate by 75bps, the hint for Fed's Powell continued inflation pressures yet to be resolved are clear. The hint for "Fed Pivot" was not, with clear emphasis that hikes should continue. Technically, on the Weekly TF, DJI is facing strong resistance at 0.786 fib level as well as top of...

LUC_Capital

We are up 11% after hitting the 50% retracement of $3503 earlier in October, with the NASDAQ rallying 11.8%. Earnings have been mostly disappointing, and inflation challanges are mounting, with Fed promising "HIgher-for-Longer", despite what some investors are believing. A rally into the next bull market, or a bear market rally?

LUC_Capital

After breaking below rising channel, GOOG rebounded from oversold conditions, and seems to be consolidating at 0.5. Gap fill from $95 did manage to test 50 MA. I'm expecting a test of local resistance level, watching 50 MA before a potential new low at 0.382.

LUC_Capital

Looking to sell at 1.13695 from local resistance, second sell at 1.10900 broken support level at 0.618. Looking for a rejection at 1.07695.

LUC_Capital

The dollar has mainted it's price level at the key 0.786 resistance level. Major resistance is seen at 114.778. A test of the 20 SMA shows a bounce, and test for major resistance is likely. What is interesting is how the market, and thus the dollar, reacted to the fast U-turn on the market sell-off on Thursday. A hotter than expected CPI guarantees the Fed will...

LUC_Capital Updated 

Volume indicates the fierce oil sell-off is not yet finished. It seems oil has not held the momentum to continue upwards price action. Ichimoku cloud shows a clear $95 rejection to send price into seller controlled territory and continue the downtrend.

LUC_Capital

The crypto market has been shaken up by macros like it has been over and over again. BTC has strayed far below its 10 & 20 SMA. Long-term logarithmic support is at $27000, and we are not even in the $20,000s. Volume has dropped off. Will next week's macro news bring new lows? SPX is at major support and a bounce is possible, however DJI has made new lows, and a...

LUC_Capital

The development of the ETH merge has been pretty interesting to watch. Here are my views: ETH was hesitating on completing the RS of the H&S pattern formation leading up to the merge, with the bulls pushing the price to the upper $1700s. Price movement failed to test the 50 SMA, volume has stayed the same. CPI print came out hotter than expected, yet again...

LUC_Capital

With the start of Beartember, it seems like the rally for the crypto market has faded. Some things I noticed: On the daily, ETH has developed a clear Head & Shoulder pattern, signalling buyers have further lost control of the price action amid the wider market conditions. A push to test the resistance at $1650 would complete the right shoulder, and a fall to...

LUC_Capital

Over the last few months, BTC and ETH have failed to rally out of the seller controlled prices - BTC crumbled at $25K and ETH quickly rejected $2K to end its parabolic rally. On the 1H, ETH hit a local resistance @ $1720, and a bearish divergence along with a double top is seen on the RSI. It's likely that it will fall to local support of $1530. Below $1530...