MohamedElsodoody

MohamedElsodoody

reasons why to expect a retest of 1.1910 to be capped by 1.1930 ahead of ECB monetary policy statement? 1- ECB officials Klaas Knot and Robert Holzmann said in separate interviews this week that the central bank should dial back its crisis-era policies and slow down the pace of bond buying. Their comments came on the same day that data showed an inflation surge...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

In previous idea I mentioned the reasons why price action is expected to be capped at 1.1850, reasons for a retest at 1.1835, in this idea I will mention additional reasons why to expect a short term reversal to be capped at 1.1770 at risk of falling further to 1.1720? reasons why price action shall take the downwards direction to be capped at 1.1770 ahead of...

MohamedElsodoody

reasons why uptrend to be capped at 1.1850 ahead of EU CPI data? 1- Germany >> economic recovery is coming under threat from a persistent global supply squeeze and rising Covid-19 infections, " it is clear that the growth outlook will have to be revised downwards " according to Ifo president Clemens Fuest, post the big slump in economists' confidence. 2- EU >>...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

Fed monetary policy update according to last FOMC >> there was not a whole lot of agreement beyond that Fed COULD start reducing the pace of their bond-buying by the end of the year, now it is just about tweaking the timing, which is considered as not only USD positive but also insufficient information to the investors who are waiting for a clear calendar date to...

MohamedElsodoody

WHY TO EXPECT VOLATILITY AHEAD AND POST JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM? reasons to again expect a retest of 1.1800 at risk of breaking out above to 1.1850? 1- House adopted a $3.5 trillion budget resolution that advances his economic agenda. Already passed by the Senate, the bill now goes to committees that will write the details into tax and spending legislation that...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

In my previous idea I mentioned reasons why price action is at risk of retesting 1.1800, here I will mention the updates related to macroeconomic calendar and how it can affect the price direction? MACROECONOMIC CALENDAR UPDATES AND ANALYSIS 1- German and EU PMI data ( Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Markit Composite PMI ) readings reflected modest drop = ...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

Why price action is at risk of retesting 1.1800? 1- U.S. >> employment has risen by an average of about 617,000 people per month so far this year. BUT the total number of Americans who are not working is still more than 5 millions short of 2019 levels. 2- U.S. >> the White House told Congress that it’s “appropriate” for EXPANDED federal unemployment benefits...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK SUMMARY - The main fundamental news that drives the currency pair direction for more than a month now is the rising inflation in EU and U.S. post lifting lockdowns related to the Covid-19 - - Since last FOMC Press conference on June 16 2021, the Fed shifted their tone to go hawkish earlier than anticipated and announced Fed has started to...

MohamedElsodoody

How can EU GDP reports affect price range? - If it happens to be upbeat (EUR POSITIVE) = A retest of weekly high 1.1800 could be, to be capped at 1.1820, to be followed back a retreat below 1.1800, HOWEVER MY POINT OF VIEW THAT IT WOULD BE VERY LOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF POWELL SPEAKS AWAITING ANY NEWS ABOUT THE CALENDAR TAPER DATE (OFFICIAL ANNOUCNCEMENT OR DELAY TO...

MohamedElsodoody

Why price broke above 1.1750 and reached 1.1800? 1- Fed monetary policy updates >> - U.S. data eased fears that Fed may soon pare back stimulus so much that traders appeared to ignore a call from within the central bank to do just that - - Kansas city Fed chief said she is ready to see bond-buying trimmed as the economy has made "substantial" progress in its...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OVERVIEW 1- Drop in initial jobless claims and a rise in JOLTs Job openings (Jun) - TO ADD TO THE PROGRESS OF REACHING THE FED'S EMPLOYMENT GOAL - - RAISING THE OPTIMISM THAT ON FED CHAIR POWELL SPEAKS NEXT TUESDAY WILL BE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT ON THE CALENDAR DATE FOR FED TO TAPER ASSET PURCHASES - - TAPERING ASSET PURCHASES MEANS LESS...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

1- U.S. inflation updates >> - INFLATION STAYED HIGH IN JULY, WITH U.S. CONSUMER PRICES RISING 5.4% FROM A YEAR EARLIER - - HIGH ANNUAL U.S. CPI DATA - 2- EU inflation updates >> - GERMAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CPI (MoM) (Jul) REPORTED A MONTHLY RISE OF 0.9% - - GERMAN INFLATION JUMPED TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 - - EU CPI (YoY) SIGNALLED A RISE TO 2.2%...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

Wednesday's economic calendar data would show the direction of inflation in Germany and U.S. , I would mention below the updates, expectations and how price would move accordingly? 1- U.S. inflation updates >> - According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation - - Also...

MohamedElsodoody

1- Fed monetary policy updates >> - Fed's Bostic said the central bank could taper between October and December - - Last week's jobs reports including today's U.S. JOLTs job openings (Jun) report happened to be upbeat to add to the progress of reaching the fed's employment goal - ( THAT COULD BE CONSIDERED SOMEHOW AS UNOFFICIAL TAPER ANNOUNCEMENT SUPPORTED BY...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

1- FED monetary policy updates >> - FED Richard Clarida said the central bank was on track to begin interest rate hikes in 2023, with a possible taper announcement later this year - - U.S. NFP and unemployment rate reports marked another step toward the FED's goal of "substantial" progress in the labor market and raised expectations the central bank will start...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

In this post I will mention how the U.S. unemployment rate data can affect the price direction? - The forecasted unemployment rate data is expected to show 5.7% drop from 5.9% previous, I expect the following possibilities, 1- unemployment rate less than 5.7% = ( THIS MEANS THE FED IS GETTING CLOSER TO MATCH THE GOAL OF EMPLOYMENT, TO BE FOLLOWED BY TAPER...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

1- FED monetary policy updates >> FOMC Member Clarida speech takeaways "Starting Fed rate hikes in 2023 is entirely consistent with US central bank’s framework." "Made progress toward goals since setting ‘substantial further progress’ bar for taper of asset purchases in December 2020." "In coming meetings, Fed will again assess progress toward our goals, will...

MohamedElsodoody Updated 

In this post I will mention how the U.S. ADP Nonfarm employment change (Jul) data can affect the price direction? - The forecasted ADP Nonfarm employment change (Jul) data is expected to show 695K added jobs following the previous release of 692K added jobs , I expect the following possibilities, 1- 695K - 695K + = price will break below 1.1850 to target...