So every trend is upward with the exception of the Weekly, who is in a downtrend. That weekly downtrend signal was a higher low than the last time a weekly downtrend signal struck however, which fyi, was March of 2020. That is how long it had been since we had a weekly downtrend signal. That being said, I would trade cautiously towards the upside. We are...
So I've been trading on Trends for 3 years. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like this movement over the last day. I mean, I've seen things like Wednesdays move from trends, sure. However, Thursday, with just a 30m downtrend and reversal, and not a single other trend showing anything? Nope. What does it all mean? I've no idea, honestly. I mean, everything is...
So, yesterday we saw that lower high 1-Hour Uptrend I was looking for at 3975. Of course, that was just before the Market shot up on the news of a 75-bps hike and significantly increased hawkish rhetoric from J Powell. I had said nothing destroys trends like headline news, and clearly I should have listened to my own advice, hah. However, I have licked my wounds...
So, too bad I bailed out on that Long I took at the end of yesterday, but oh well. I sleep better when I don't have overnight trades, at least in these current market conditions. Anyways, here we are, back above 3950 like I had said. 3958 brought us the new Lower High Uptrend on the 30m. We still, as of writing this, don't have a 1-Hour Uptrend signal. I wasn't...
So, not much changed overnight. Going to be an interesting run coming up here in terms of trading by trends. On the Downside; We have lots of short opportunities. Even any upward movement at this point will just be considered an entry point downward. The 1H is in a downtrend, but if it pushed up to get an uptrend, it'll be a lower high uptrend unless we have...
So with our movement down on Friday, we start to flip flop a few trends. That being said, I'd not count on any of them holding traction just yet. The 30m, 1H, and 2H Downtrend signals are all a higher low downtrend since their last time, and Price Action has already moved back above the 1H and 2H downtrend marks. Oddly enough, it was the 5m that really showed the...
So overnight we didn't have much change since I had made that video yesterday showing the warning sign the 30m trend is giving and explained why if you're interested in seeing more on trend trading. The Upside; Look for a push upward on the 30m that closes above 4000ish as a sign that the 30m has gone back into an uptrend. It shouldn't take too much to get us...
So all the trends at 12-Hour and below are still showing up. The only one to change position was that 30m, it flipped down, then back up. A key thing to watch for today to look for price falling is going to be if a 30m bar drops quickly below 3938 before we have enough upward momentum. If that happens, draw a line from the close of the 30m bar at 7/20/2022 at...
I'll be watching for a bit of a whipsaw day. On the Trend side of that, I say this because in trading trends for a while, I rarely see all the 12-Hour and under able to go in the same direction for very long. I know it seems counter intuitive, but it would almost be better for at least the 1-Hour & 30m to flip a reversal, then flip back over. My assumption on why...
Yesterday's volume was awful, but there was one major take away from it that is rarely ever observed. The second half of the day had more volume than the first half. Now it isn't hard to outpace a turtle, however, normally a slow first half is followed with a slower second half. I expect at some point for that selling volume to continue. There isn't any major...
So, I ended up taking a L on my weekly trade to see the 12-Hour show a downtrend signal. Obviously in hindsight, when I saw it flashing at 3730 I should have just sold out, but it had hours left and even with some pullback, I didn't expect things to flip so much. The 4-Hour has now yet again reversed course to an Uptrend this morning. Having done trend trading...
So Earnings that came in yesterday were small companies (in terms of small on the S&P) did decent, the two larger (JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley) did awful. What appears to have happened, is people dropped their money out of Financial Companies (Biggest sector loss of the day) and tossed it into Tech (Biggest gain of the day). Tech carried that recovery, much like...
I'm going to keep it short and sweet, since I'm still a bit tilted at yesterday's movement knocking me and then going down. I've seen some brief up and down, but that was excessive to say the least. For those who didn't follow, I had been sitting in a downtrend trade at the previous 4-Hour Uptrend / 1-Hour Downtrend at 3861. After it had gone down as expected, I...
The only trend that changed completely was the 30m, twice. It got flipped to an up position yesterday at the opening bell and got flipped back to a down position just before close. It has not closed below it, and with that level of whipsaw action, I wouldn't take us as on the downward train yet. The 1-Hour Signal nearly uptrended but failed to close high enough...
Overnight we saw the 2-Hour and the 3-Hour turn into downtrends. The 3-Hour Downtrend did have an immediate pullback, and shows it may have some resistance getting to a 4-Hour Downtrend. I stayed up late last night to trade between the 1-Hour Downtrend until the 2-Hour Downtrend developed. The 2-Hour definitely looks healthy, and it really pushed further than was...
The 1-Hour Trend Flipped from it's previous Uptrend to a downtrend overnight. That prior uptrend definitely served its purpose and it was only a matter of time. With that said, we are beginning to see that low volume and relatively weak up push of last week finally fade out and that bearish double top begin to show it is coming to bring direction to the market....
No new trends developed overnight. Most foreign trade involvement was a very slow descent, but that isn't surprising with how overheated most timeframes were going into the end of yesterday (Just about everything was overbought on MFI). Some of them are still overheated depending on the indicator you are looking at (I don't put a lot of faith into indicators...
While retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal. To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend...