No video today, as there isn't much to report. It was suggested the tech rally was due to algo trading on the Nasdaq's weekly MFI being Oversold. If that's the case, it is still flirting with being oversold. My concern on any upward movement is yesterday's rally wasn't based on Buyers coming into the Market, it was based on Buyers coming into the Tech Market. Keep...
So, some boredom just watching the market develop any short-term direction, and was messaging with a few other traders. Had a few people ask me for a more in-depth explanation on the whole triangle apex theory thing. I run through the last triangle we were in, and this current one, and break down the math involved in using them. I'd say they tend to be over 80%...
Overall, a great trading day, even if the second half brought frustration. Super Tech to the Rescue! The rebound today is on shaky ground as it was squarely done on the back of the tech sector. If you are looking to go Long, keep an eye on data and news regarding the tech sector, especially your major tech companies such as Google, Apple, Meta, NVidia, etc. One...
Trends had some minor changes from the overnight movement. I explained that there is an upcoming Bull / Bear Battleground taking shape. Price is coming under pressure and ultimately something is going to give. I still give a 60/40 bearish sentiment, but again, I trade off of the mathematical equation of trends, and NOT off my opinion. Today I go over the trends...
Real quick, I didn't want to record the whole thing again, but I skipped part of the math equation because I was doing it in my head so I thought I'd explain the math on why 3500ish... Top 4805, Bottom from pandemic lows 2175 4805 - 2175 = 2630 2630 / 2 = 1315 (the part I forgot to explain on how I got around 1300) 2175 + 1315 = 3510 Once we bottom at 3510ish, I...
Much of the same trendlines. The 6-Hour Downtrend has shown it is a clear reversal signal at this point. So I'd just keep taking profit on downward movements to 3770 from the 3832-3815 range. I explain I wouldn't really be bounce trading these, like I did between the previous 6-Hour Uptrend of 3892 and 12-Hour Uptrend Reversal Signal of 3927. The reason is...
Greetings. So I tried a video today, didn't feel much like typing. If you don't feel like watching it, than just briefly, all of the patterns are sitting at the same as before. I briefly mentioned the 15m trend just for guidance yesterday, that already flipped itself twice. So yeah, usually anything 15m and below is better used as a reversal entry point than a...
So, really interesting day. I'll be up front, I am likely done for trading for the week. My risk management plan says that if I have an overly exceptional week, I step away for at least a day. My weekly goal is to capture about 50 points worth of profit on the ES Mini, and I have managed just shy of 200. I know what will happen is I will try TOO hard to hit that...
So I'm writing this at 23:00 EST before heading to bed. Wanted to check the market one last time to see if the 4-Hour ever closed below its trendline. It has not. It currently is below it, but it has been below it 4 times now and failed to close below and pulled back every time. So, to remind, we look at a trending signal as a reversal before we consider it a...
So first, let me point out the obvious in that the 12-Hour Uptrend clearly did a reversal. If you read my long-winded explanation of trend trading, I explained that the first expectation of a new trend, is to look for it to be reversing and not continuing. As I had been talking about the last two days, the 12-Hour Uptrend took hold at 3926, and never closed above...
Trend Levels haven't changed much. The only change since yesterday is that the 30m trend flipped from a downtrend pattern, to an uptrend pattern, as did the smaller timeframes underneath it. However the 30m uptrend was never was able to push past that closing trend signal yet, and is still hitting that Uptrend Signal on the 12-Hour Trend. However, I'd say there...
So in dealing with trends, and trend patterns, each of the following longer timeframes are in an Uptrend - 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, 12h The longer downtrends are currently D and W only. That being said, I always warn about trend change reversals. As noted before, there was a brief one at the 2 Hour Uptrend, and again at the 3 Hour Uptrend. The 4-Hour only briefly paused...
So I thought I would explain some of my technique for trading ES Mini Futures. After a long time of trading, what I've noticed is that on an initial uptrend or downtrend, the first likely thing to occur is a reversal. I calculate a trend based on the highs and lows of the last 50 bars of an Adaptive Moving Average scheme (I used to do the math, but for the last 6...
In spite of all the noise about dropping, long term we are really just settling back into where we should have been all along. The drop at the beginning of the pandemic should have not been followed with such a massive surge upward. Major down caused a major up... and we are now just settling back into the normal range. That being said, in terms of today, I see...