So, I'm short again at 4140, which is already looking as a potentially flawed trade, but we will see. With the 4hr closing at 4142, it certainly appears that trends are basically maxed to the upside. I was looking and I do think it is possible that the Weekly timeframe could get an uptrend close to here, so I might hold through past that and see what...
So I had said I believed we would have some upward movement yesterday, although it did go a about 40 points higher than I expected. However, with that level of upward movement, we are nearly maxed to the uptrends again, with just the 4hr waiting to hit, unless we are close to getting that Weekly back out of the downtrend pattern it recently went into. It does...
So I'm still sitting in the same trade, just waiting to see if things move downward past the 4000 level. I actually was watching the market when it was below 4010 and nearly decided to take profit at the moment and then evaluate again for another entry down. Unfortunate at this point I didn't but I do expect some more downside still. The trends however are being...
So we got that Daily Uptrend signal, and have so far hit lower off of it. I foresee a move down to around 3913 as a retest to the low and then if we can rally above that, it could be a sustainable new bull market. My instincts tell me however that we won't sustain this push overall, fed by my concern over the weekly downtrend market signal we recently got. I hope...
So we got the upward movement I'd discussed yesterday. We did get a 30m downtrend yesterday but we bounced up and did in the end close higher as I had believed we would. I went short yesterday and am still sitting in that position now. I was concerned that good PCE data might cause us to spike upwards, but ultimately I don't see the PCE data as a good data point,...
So, again I believe that the market will have a harsh swing down coming, but yet again, I caution to wait for a good entry. While I didn't get to partake in yesterday's rally because I was stopped out before we went much lower than I expected, we did still get the upward movement that the trends called for. I could see some more upward movement up to around 4080...
So I exited my trade from yesterday for a profit just above $2000. That puts me at around $2800 for the week. I'm a bit unsure about our next movement. My instinct says we could head lower and have a total meltdown of a day, however, thus far each time we started to meltdown we immediately pulled back up and it has become apparent this 4000 zone is a battleground...
So after jumping out briefly yesterday I went back in short at 4029 this morning. We did get a 30m downtrend mark earlier this morning at 4027. We did not have a major bounce off of it, at least not yet. Currently I'll be looking for at least a 1hr downtrend mark, as the 1hr is in violation (it was in a lower high uptrend mark) so it would allow us to fix it....
So while I took Friday off, it looks like the market ended up right around where I thought we would (I forget the exact number I called, maybe 3997? somewhere in the 90s anyways). That being said I wouldn't just jump into a short quite yet, or at least I'm not going to. I've said I'm fairly neutral with this markets long term direction, and want to see how we...
So we got the downward movement I've been calling and waiting for finally. I did jump out earlier than I anticipated. I'd said I thought we'd get close to 3900 on the next descent, but my trading strategy gave me no logical reason to stay in past 3946 so I got out at 3943 as I don't trade off my "gut", I trade with trends. The 6hr downtrend signal came much higher...
So this is a longer video, as I discuss more than just the current market, but where I foresee price action heading into at least the first half of the year, and why. I apologize for the painful observance of me trying to switch around on time charts, I'm still getting used to TradingView at times and so it is certainly my issue of being unfamiliar and learning...
So we got that 12hr uptrend signal we wanted. Nearly every trend signal is in an uptrend now, except the Daily. I've discussed the importance of this Daily uptrend signal hitting for some time now as it will be the first higher high in nearly a year. That being said, if it comes, I expect some choppy initial reversing action to come with it as trends will be maxed...
So the video explains it better, but ultimately I'm looking to see if we can get another 12hr uptrend signal here and see if it can hold again into that 13:00 EST closing bar on a 12hr chart. If/When that happens, I'll be watching price action to see if I want to cash out on my trade (Long 3920) or hold on to see if we can get a bit higher and even potentially...
On Friday I went Long at 3900 after waiting to see if we'd break that price range we'd been stuck in. I'm still currently sitting there, and overall looking to see if the market can finish with that movement I expected us to have going up to 3950-4000. We already this morning came within 6 points of the lower end of that level. We've managed to break the last...
I feel like I could go on about the market being range bound, but I feel like I already went on about the market being range bound. I still see it rebounding upward briefly. Time for jobs info to potentially break us out of this. Inflation is coming down, job market is excessively robust, interest rates are elevated and could remain there, how the market wants to...
Trends still have us seeing some upside, but overall more downside, and price action reflects this in our price zone here. I still ultimately see us moving higher to around 3950-4000 before we have the ability make a major wave downward, however, as I stated yesterday, I'm not convinced enough in that movement or that we just head lower now to get involved in...
So as I explain in the video, the 30m/1hr/2hr are all showing potential for more movement upward. They are in defiance of a 4hr lower high downtrend that we've pushed past, and have even now pushed above a 6hr and 12hr lower high downtrend as well. That puts me in a short term bullish stance unless we begin to fall back below the 6hr and 12hr lines in which I'd...
So about a week ago I had said that trends would take us likely to 3800. The level of frustration I had with myself when I realized we hit our final plummet (Thanks Bank of Japan) to 3800 and I missed 2/3 of that movement down was undeniable. However, as I had discussed a week ago, I felt that would be a potential bottom for us and that we could see this rally...