I know, I know, I'm REALLY late today, haha. So I finally got to capitalize off my trade. Not only did I not have to take a loss, but I cashed it out at $1150. I then went back to bed... because in spite of the fact I'm old enough that all my children are adults... I stayed up all night playing the new Warzone 2 with my people, and it felt just like the old days....
So yet again things attempted to go into the no trend zone and failed. Ultimately, while we seem to be sneaking higher, I still think this is the top of the rally spectrum at the moment, and I don't believe in a full rally until I see a defined bottom. On the short term, we see the 30m creating a bottom and a top and taking us higher, however, the 30m is not a...
As I state in the video, all movements into the no trend zone have reversed, however we are getting higher lows and higher highs on the 30m trend. I still don't have a lot of faith that the 30m trend can take us upward by itself, however I may eventually have to accept that we aren't coming back down to 3930 or below. If you just want the trends, here are...
So we have fallen below the 30m downtrend/uptrending line. That puts the spotlight on if we have a 1hr downtrend next, or if we manage to resume above the 30m and see if the 30m can take us higher. If you aren't interested in the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3959 Downtrend (11/11/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022)...
As I finished with yesterday, now that the 12hr has struck, we cannot develop any further uptrend marks above us to take us higher. That is why, I expect at LEAST a 30m downtrend in the very near future. Once we get that, we will have to see if the 30m wants to run away with the market. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend...
Here I thought I'd have a short video, but alas, it was not, haha. Anyways, enjoy the video to see where trends are, what likely drove us down yesterday, and some conversation on how this CPI print could cause a huge price movement, or won't even matter in the end. If you just want the trends, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Downtrend...
I hate to not put a direction for the market, however, I am very, very neutral today. Price action could likely just be within about 3800-3840 range, MAYBE up to 3860, but I'm not even confident in that. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3772 Uptrend...
To answer today's question... yes, I think this rally could make it another 10-20 points higher before it fizzles out. In scrolling through the trends, I found that the 15m was a well-established funnel we were using Monday and Tuesday. However, today it appears that the direction of the uptrend/uptrending line is beginning to flatten. As we approach the CPI...
With few Earnings and very little economic data, I don't see today flying one way or another. The only triggering item in the next 24 hours is the midterm elections. Historically, markets go higher at the close of an election, regardless of outcome. If you don't want to watch the video, the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Uptrend...
So the question of the day is, are wages more important than employment information. I believe the answer to this will be yes. Ultimately if wages come down, and bring inflation down with it, than the Fed will likely back off of rate hikes and let things settle down overall. We will find out if they are in conflict at 8:30am EST, or if they are running together in...
The answer to today's question is... I believe we can. Once this excessive emotional sell off cools for a minute, I think cooler heads can prevail. I find it a bit ironic that of all Powell's messages, he had more dovish talk in this one and yet everyone only saw hawkish, when in the past he has been in my opinion very hawkish and people took the microscopic...
To answer to today's question, is probably not. In spite of that, I think the longer looking picture is that we head down. However, we have several trends that are showing a higher low (30m, 1h, 2h, 3h) so before we head down I'd like to see one of them turn into a downtrend shape. If you remember, we got up here on the back up the 30m trend giving us a nice...
Short answer to if this rally can continue? Is No, I don't think so. I think this rally continues until we get into Earnings for areas that are sensitive to consumer spending (Walmart, Target, etc). However, I'm not sure I want to bank on the rally coming back just yet. Overall my position is bearish, but it will be timing that will be important. I think the...
So after running away with the market for a few days, the 30m uptrend we were running along has finally come to an end. To say yesterday surprised me would be an understatement. I thought for sure with the heaviness of Google and Microsoft in the market that it could take things lower, but in the end, we ended up flying upward yet again. That is Earning season for...
So, the question of the day is the same as yesterdays. I predicted the market correctly with almost absolute accuracy, but unfortunately, that was my least likely scenario of the two scenarios I said could play out yesterday. Right down to within a few points of where I said we'd likely peak yesterday if the 30m ran away with the market. We got a few bars to begin...
So yesterday's price movement fell entirely inside the 30m trend lines. That certainly caught me off guard a little, and while I'm sitting at basically zero in my short of 3800, I missed out on capitalizing on $2000 by not seeing that coming. In fact, while I was making this video I saw the 30m downtrend signaling at 3790 which is right in line with the uptrending...
In the end my Friday ending trade only netted me $1000. Not a big deal, as I think the current price action has setup for an even better move. I think we are just overdoing it on the upward movement here, and that we will come down and snag that 4hr downtrend still before we head up. Additionally, any continuation of this rally needs to have a healthier...
So the market attempted to pump and fight against the 2hr downtrend hitting. My initial intent was to go long once we started looking at the 2hr or maybe a 4hr if things went down, but when the market pumped upwards I just shook my head and started to get into Short positions. That netted me $3500, or 70 points, down on the S&P. I was fairly certain we would hit...