Soybean short swing trade: The Bollinger Bands width has narrowed to 2.56% of price which is a level not seen in over a year. A new 6-month or greater low in bandwidth indicates that a volatility squeeze breakout is likely upon us. Similar volatility squeeze situations exist in wheat and corn but they both broke to the downside significantly last week. Wheat...
The assumptions are that money printing is real inflation as is often stated by Peter Schiff and M2 money supply is a good measure of the amount of money that has been printed into circulation. This data goes back to 1959 and makes the dot com bubble in 2000 look much more exuberant than current price levels. There is room for downside from here as the 1966 to...
Price is attempting a retest of the white 2022 trend line. There’s a confluence of the trend line, the green parallel channel, and price level 3880. 3880 is a level I’m watching due to similarities between now and 2011 which turned out to be a fake crash year. That idea is linked as a related idea below. The confluence occurs on Friday of this coming week. ...
The soybean crush spread calculates how much profit a soybean processing plant can generate by crushing a bushel of soybeans into soybean meal and oil. The profit margin is that profit number divided by the revenue which is the price of the meal and oil outputs. I prefer to look at profit margin as opposed to just profit as it adjusts for large market...
This idea is an analysis of this season's widowmaker spread breakdown done in hindsight for future reference. See idea linked below for last season's widowmaker analysis. Idea explained on the chart. Snapshot of chart before publishing distortion:
Boston Scientific develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices. Q4 earnings were reported this week providing a clear picture of 2022 annual fundamentals. The fundamentals considered are presented on the chart with brief commentary. Technical considerations: Price bounced off of trend line going back to 2012 Ascending triangle breakout New ATH weekly...
Price is oscillating in a cyclical manner within a sweeping channel. If it continues to do so, it will be at $193 by March 20th. Keyword: if. It might make sense to pick up a couple calls just in case, they’re fairly cheap. Also, entering long here with a stop outside the channel might make sense as well.
$35 strike May 19 expiration puts are going for $1.03 right now and I’m thinking of grabbing 10 at $1.00 a piece for a total cost of $1000. Reasons to go short: FCX at upper bound of downtrend channel FCX at horizontal resistance from May 2021 FCX Time cycle suggests top forming within 2 weeks (this trade might be early) Weekly copper chart at 2008 crash level,...
Chart 1: Looking at the seasonal performance of oil longs taken around this time of year for the previous 2 years, it can be extrapolated that this last week of January coming up is a good time to go long for a swing trade. It can also be observed that there was a W-bottom this time last year and that we’ve just completed a similar W-bottom pattern. The green...
Bear case: There is a descending triangle and a time cycle of peaks suggesting downside. Bull case: There is a trendline suggesting upside General: If the green trendline is broken to the downside, there is no moving average support* until the 20-month SMA and below that there is only the 100-week and 200-week which is well below near the implied target of the...
and it was retested this week. The Rollover LTE indicator (see script below) helps show why the 20 SMA (white smooth line) rolled up so sharply after steadily declining since June. The current price is above the sharply-dropping weekly closing price from 20 weeks ago (white jagged line), therefore, the 20 SMA has achieved a positive slope in short order. The...
There are similarities between the price action in 2011 and 2022 worth examining. The 2011 chart is on the left and the 2022 chart is on the right. The similarities listed in chronological order are as follows: 1. Major spiking crash (white) 2. Corrective trading range which would eventually serve as support (blue) 3. 100%+ rally off of crash low(gray) 4. Head...
The same vulnerability that existed last week (see idea linked below) is only a reversal day away and we're still in the downtrend channel. Rather than being somewhat inside the channel like we were last week, we are now just inside the upper edge which makes for a great risk/reward short entry. Copper is similarly at a trendline (actually a confluence) and has...
R&D spending on the metaverse and other projects is eating into net income. Revenue is still impressive. People still use Facebook and Instagram. With a P/E of 8.649 nearing the bottom of a parallel channel drawn on the log scale chart, I can’t help but think there’s an options play or even a great long-term buying opportunity waiting to be had some time over...
Gold has fallen below the 50-month MA (thick blue), 200-month MA (red), and is below all of the major monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages. It’s in a well-established downtrend channel after a major double top breakdown with a retest. The green line pointed to by the green arrow was a potential major uptrend line which was broken and retested. The next...
The Bollinger chart is on the left and the Wilder chart is on the right. The Bollinger chart shows bullish divergence between price and %B which is confirmed by AD%. See the yellow bars. AD% is a normalized accumulation/distribution indicator. Price has also created a double bottom and closed above the 20-day moving average, triggering a long entry. The...
The RB1! Bollinger Bands bandwidth has narrowed to the narrowest width in 11 months as can be seen via the BandWidth indicator. Such a collapse in volatility usually precedes a volatility breakout in either direction. A Bollinger Band squeeze, which is a type of volatility breakout setup, is triggered when the bandwidth puts in a 6-month low which is a condition...
This idea is explained on the chart because that’s the easiest way to explain it. If you start at the green “Start Here” star in the top right corner and follow the green arrows, my observations about the current market conditions and how they compare to previous market crash conditions are detailed. Please feel free to ask questions.