The US consumes 18 million barrels of crude oil per day (source: Google ). This is a staggering volume which is difficult to visualize therefore I have calculated how many football fields long each side of a cube that could hold that much oil would need to be in order to help with visualization. The result is that the cube would need to measure 1.29 football...
With the exception of an apparent fakeout in July there is a trendline going back to the previous July which is well respected. A triangle formation can be said to have started around April and looks poised to have a possible mid to late-November breakout. If a breakout happens between the green vertical lines I'll consider that an ascending triangle breakout...
Looking at the weekly chart, it appears to be in an uptrend, but there appears to be a descending triangle top formation similar to the previous one. In order to fulfill the ascending triangle pattern, the price will need to drop by the end of January and if this thesis plays out, the bottom may be in around August of 2022. I'm not recommending going short right...
Looks like the setup before a major plunge. A plunge is not guaranteed, but the setup is worth noting.
(increased production) and a decrease in price in the price of crude oil in 2022.
Linear regression downward channel, engulfing candles shown, looks more bearish than it does bullish but a break out of this channel would be interesting.
There is a downward channel in the monthly RSI and RSI has bounced off the underside of the upper channel line. There is also RSI divergence in overbought territory, however, a failure swing (lower low after lower high) has yet to be established so being short right now is aggressive. There is also a rising wedge, as noted previously.
The major breakdowns in natural gas were preceded by breakdowns in the Widowmaker (March/April) spread. This is an analysis done in hindsight, for future reference.
The Covid cases chart on the bottom is from the Johns Hopkins website. Tradingview doesn't show Covid data past the 27th of November for some reason. The data from Johns Hopkins which includes today shows that we're clearly in the beginning of a new wave, unfortunately. The wave is starting from the highest low of all the waves by a significant margin and...
Before the Covid crash, there was a rising wedge with a fake drop and a retest. A similar pattern current exists. If this Omicron variant shakes up the markets, things may get ugly. I'm not going short unless intraday price action suggests doing so but I do have a bearish bias.
This is an after-the-fact observation, but the bearish divergence between price and net non-commercial longs is worth noting for future reference. COT = Commitments of Traders report
This is primarily for my own future reference but if anyone has questions I'll be glad to answer. Key points: 6 month spread (January to July) 6/15/9 MACD seems to work better than standard 12/26/9 Closing price delta trendline being broken seemed to be a bearish signal for the spread and oil price sustained increase in volume upon breaking through trendline...
The neckline on the head and shoulders has been retested. The 160-hr harmonic cycle (previous idea) is still in play. The price target for the head and shoulders is a parallel line equidistant from the neckline to the top of the head. The timing is based on the harmonic cycle and will put the price at 3.624 by the end of next week. This is a theory. Note: The...
Three squeezes are noted on the chart with the current one having a yet-to-be-determined resolution. If it plays out according to theory (source: John Bollinger book "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands"), the price action will begin a strong move either up or down. Based on the descending triangle-like nature of the current formation, and the bearish readings on the...
A harmonic cycle with a 160-hour period can be observed whereby the price rises significantly and then falls within each cycle. The cycle does not time tops or bottoms perfectly but it does suggest a window of time when there will be a top and when there will be a significantly lower point relative to that top. There is still the possibility of a 2nd top within...
Resistance includes: Upper edge of rising wedge 1.618 Fib extension 200-day Bollinger Band I'm not planning to go short but I might if an opportunity presents itself.
50 day moving average (blue) crossed under 200 day moving average (red) = death cross Historically they haven't meant much for TSLA, but this one is after a historically unprecedented rally and EV competition is ramping up. I'm not shorting or selling but I will be on the lookout for a buying opportunity at a fraction of the current price within the next year or so.
3 out of the last 4 times price has reached the 13% envelope of the 200-hr simple moving average on the hourly there have been significant pullbacks ranging from -.5 to -1.618 retracements. 1 out of the 4 times the price reached the 21% envelope (purple). The absolute dollar amount relative to the 200-hr average is shown by the indicator at the bottom. It...