Death crosses after major rallies have historically led to approximately 60% drops. A 60% drop from here (we just had a death cross after a major rally) puts us at around 13000 which is a previous peak and generally believable level for support. I'm not suggesting going short here, I'm just making a bearish observation. I'm long GBTC since BTC 10,000 and...
This descending triangle setup is far from complete and is just a possibility to watch out for. Free free to ask questions.
and coming up with conservative and aggressive price targets. Currently in long trade, considering when to take profits. I may close at the conservative or the agressive target depending on how aggressively the price action continues going up.
As indicated by data from Commitments of Traders reporting, the net non-commercial long commitments are trending up and appear to have put in a new low at the trendline. This same scenario occurred in October of 2007 when soybeans were rallying toward the 15-year high, except now they're rallying towards the all-time high. The price increase that took place...
This recent breakout in soy has similarities to previous moves which have gained a lot more than this one currently has in terms of percentage gain and cents/bushel gain. These differences are noted on the top price chart. Indicator Similarities: Volume increasing after making a new high Stochastic shooting up from below 50 without pause into overbought...
The chart shows a potential measured move up to 1800 based on the idea that the current price action is comparable to the price action in 2007 and 2008.
This chart shows pattern repetition, a falling wedge breakout, resistance and support levels drawn in using rectangles, and directional movement oscillators that show directional movement has shifted upward. These technicals look bullish in the intermediate term (next 3-6 months) and don't suggest much about the short or long term. It would make sense to see a...
when SPY reaches 420. Just follow the current trend channel to April 20th and the intersection is at SPY 420 which is also the 2.618 Fib extension level from the previous correction. Are SPY puts dead? No. Terminated.
The exact bottoms looking week-over-week via 7-day momentum are perfectly spaced 107 bars apart. Continuing the cycle suggests a bottom on April 14th. Continuing it further and speculating what the possible trajectories may be, a good case of the end of the pandemic and a bad case of the continuation are shown.
The bounce off of the uptrend line will continue to R1 in my opinion. This could also be the reversal point of this short-term downtrend and continuation of the intermediate-term uptrend (purple line).
Bearish RSI divergence followed by a failure swing out of oversold appears to have been a sign of weakness that should have been heeded. A 10-day bull trap appears to have followed and then a dump on Thursday, leaving bulls stuck in the red. There was a technical bounce off of the lower bollinger band, 40-day SMA, 20 day price channel, etc. It probably won't...
It's hard to argue with these signals. Next week looks bullish.
The best cure for a high corn price is a high corn price because producers will plant more corn next season to take advantage of the current high price and inadvertently drive up the supply which will in turn drive down the future price. Assuming supply through March is scarce and by December it will be relatively plentiful, it makes sense to go long the March...
Based on recent history, the green arrow is the desirable, most likely scenario and the red arrow is the undesirable, but possible scenario. Please feel free to ask questions.
Textbook ascending triangle breakout. I took a look at net income as a sanity check, projected to be record setting. Swing trade, could drop back down to triangle top for retest, set stop below that. Price target is the height of the triangle above the triangle, hence a copy of the triangle being used as a reference. Set target below that to avoid...
The 200 day MA is curling up as fewer and fewer price data points are below it as the Covid crash gets put further behind us with the passage of time. Over extension was a concern in 2020 but with the moving average curling up to a slope greater than price is rising and with over extension leveling off, it is no longer an immediate concern.
Also shown are support and resistance levels and lines. Please feel free to ask any questions.
Conclusion: We're a ways away from 2.35% 10Y yields which are the level to watch out for. Any questions, feel free to ask, most of the analysis is explained on the chart.